According to Nielsen, streaming of television content increased sixty percent last year while linear was slightly down. But, what moves should marketers make in a shifting landscape where TV remains a stalwart and viewers expand their online consumption?
Gabe Greenberg, The Trade Desk’s GM of Advanced TV, will piece together the puzzle. In this hourlong webinar, Greenberg will share a vision for a fully integrated ecosystem where data-driven buying and unprecedented audience measurement give advertisers and viewers alike a better television experience than ever before.
8. THE WORLD IS CHANGING HOW IT BUYS
AND SELLS THE ANNUAL
$600B IN ADVERTISING.
NEW WINNERS AND LOSERS WILL EMERGE FROM THIS TRANSITION.
EVERYTHING OF SIZE WILL BE TRANSACTED DIGITALLY.
19. HOW THE COST OF A SPOT HAS CHANGED
$1.98
$19,70
0
$6.52
$94,700
$21.45
$129,600
$24.76
$112,100
*SOURCE: Nielsen Media Research TV Cost and CPM Trends February Each Year
20. there is no crisis.
CPMs are rising,
not falling.
advanced TV
represents promise.
25. PROGRAMMATIC
BUYING FOR THE
NEW LIVING ROOM
National
Broadcast
Networks
69%
what do buyers want?
Cable
Systems 48%
Local
Broadcast
Stations
61%
Connected
Devices 59%
61% Natl.
Cable
Networks 56% Local
61% Natl.
Thank you all for joining today’s session as we lead into IWNY. Thank you to AdAge for coordinating this session.
You will hear me speak about ATV throughout different parts of my presentation so I thought it may be best to start with clarifying what I mean when I use the term and why we talk about ATV vs PTV.
PTV is one of the most overused and broken words in our industry. We have a horrible history in ad tech of killing words – programmatic TV is one we as an industry have mutilated.
So to be clear at TTD, we use the term ATV – simply put ATV combines the power of automation with data enriched TV buying. This provides efficiency in the buying process and better audience targeting or addressability.
In a recent research piece we conducted, A large majority of the buy-side said Real-time decisioning and the Ability to target wide variety of audience demos were essential for ATV
Addressability in TV is another word we have butchered - There are various definitions of this word as well as well as varying levels of addressability today in TV, but the reason I’m focused on addressability as you will see in our presentation is that more and more TV screens can be addressed today and I believe that as more become IP enabled most will be within the next several years.
In living rooms across America, an epic clash is happening for the hearts, minds and eyeballs of U.S. consumers as connected device manufacturers and players, broadcasters and cable/satellite/telecom carriers try to reinvent the big-screen television viewing experience.
This clash is happening because TV viewership is changing quite dramatically. Lets not fool ourselves though, TV as a medium is at the top of its game. We are crearting some of the best content today – and more importantly leaders in the space agree that instead of moving TV to Digital – we are beginning to now bring TV dollars back to the TV.
Broadcasters, MVPD’s, Cable Networks and Affiliates are adapting to the increasing demand from consumers for TV to be more a la carte, addressable and on-demand.
As I talk about the “rapid shift” its important to level set -
TV has undergone small changes over the years from the 1920’s when the first TV was created On 25 December 1926, by Kenjiro Takayanagi in Japan, through 1953 when all-electronic color was introduced in the U.S..
Although created in 1953, Coit was not until 1972 when The first all-color prime-time season came, In 1972, the last holdout among daytime network programs converted to color, resulting in the first completely all-color network season.
For the first time ever 2015 saw the first year of smart TV shipments outpacing traditional TV sales.
For the purposes of clarity - A smart TV, sometimes referred to as connected TV, connected device or hybrid TV, is a television set or set-top box with integrated Internet and Web 2.0 features, and is an example of technological convergence between computers and television sets and set-top boxes.
In a recent conversation with Jeff Green, TTD CEO, Jeff recounted a story where his youngest called the TV or Smart TV – the big computer.
When we talked about TV in the past, TV meant a large screen that is viewed in the home (Living room, Bedroom, Kitchen, Den, Etc.) Today the proliferation of TV CONSUMERS now have an abundance of choice to view TV content and the devices in which they view T
PLAY AUDIO
Kevin Spacey spoke at the Edinburgh Itl Film Festival and while he may be the most unlikely candidate to be speaking to this topic, I do think it is telling to hear a lead actor speak to this topic.
All media will be transacted digitally
The government's plan to force content providers and distributors to unbundle cable and satellite TV packages and offer viewers a more à la carte way of choosing the channels they subscribe to might seem like a consumer-friendly move, but some experts say it could end up hurting consumers and the TV industry.
"Most entertainment cable channels generate about 50 per cent of their revenue from advertising and 50 per cent from subscription payments," they write. "The reason there are subscriber payments at all is that there is zero ad revenue until a channel reaches at least 25 million homes. Any channel with less than a 25 per cent penetration of U.S. households (and recall that HBO — the best of the best — only has 30 per cent penetration) would probably not survive in an à la carte world."
The way in which consumers consume video or TV programming is actively changing. The number of consumers opting not to subscribe to pay TV services accelerated in the first quarter, driven by overall losses in satellite TV customers, sluggish growth for telco TV and a strong rise in household formation, according to MoffettNathanson principal and senior analyst Craig Moffett. -
Pay TV shed about 31,000 customers in the first quarter, compared to a gain of 271,000 subscribers in the same period in 2014. Cable losses actually improved in the period – basic video customers declined about 2.3% vs. a 2.8% decline in 2014 You need only read the news daily to learn more about the active changes a foot in the space.
The bundles themselves are already being created despite active criticism by large broadcasters. Here is a quick sense for some of the smaller bundles from folks like Dish Network, Playstation and Apple that exist.
Large broadcasters/content creators are also creating their own A La Carte solutions in response to consumer demand for choice. Some of those actively promoted and discussed in the press include those from CBS, HBO and Showtime but others from NBC and Noggin also exist
Make no bones however, not all publishers are immediately embracing the shift to smaller more custom packages,
Verizon recently made an attempt to deliver smaller packages to their customers and
Walt Disney Co's ESPN sued to stop Verizon from making its sports channel part of an add-on option for customers of its new Custom TV package, a legal fight that has been the talk of industry conferences and discussions with investors and analysts.
Distributors say their contracts give them room to test other types of packages for a portion of their customers and that they will continue rolling out so-called "skinny" bundles of channels with fewer options at lower prices.
Defections by younger viewers are threatening the future of traditional pay TV. Distributors see slimmer plans as a lifeline to a generation that watches online services such as Netflix Inc and Google Inc's YouTube.
Migration happening in all demos – in a recent event, Roku and others have talked about a shift in all demos but the biggest shift is happening in the 55+ demo
Netflix wants to replace TV, and there’s a growing consensus that Reed Hastings has already started: The new conventional wisdom is that Netflix is the reason behind a mysterious decline in TV ratings that showed up last summer and has stuck around ever since.
Here’s the latest argument in support of that theory: Netflix, which streamed 10 billion hours of video last quarter, now represents close to 6 percent of total TV viewing in the U.S., says analyst Michael Nathanson. More to the point: Nathanson figures that Netflix accounts for 43 percent of the ratings decline the networks experienced last quarter.
The MoffettNathanson analyst figures that trend will continue, and “Netflix as a percentage of traditional TV will steadily rise to the low-double-digit range over the next four years, representing the majority of the declines in traditional TV viewing.”
You do not need to look far to support the argument that consumers are taking control over their content consumption
The first spot for Bulova in 1941 cost $9
You may find some digital video at a $9 CPM but the market for TV has changed a ton since this sporting event in 1941
Changes are also actively impacting CPM or media cost for TV
IN 1965 the cost of an avg :30 was $19,700 and CPM was $1.98
In 1985 the cost of an of an avg :30 was $94,700 and CPM was $6.52
In 2005 the cost of an of an avg :30 was $129,600 and CPM was $21.45
In 2014 the cost of an of an avg :30 was $112,100 and CPM was $24.76
One of the biggest myths in TV is that Advanced TV (RTB) represents a race to the bottom. TV with the addition of automation and data driven audience targeting or addressability represents a new golden age for TV and publishers will command a higher CPM then they have in the past for their media. . This is why we think of the space as Advanced TV – ATV is defined as automated data driven TV in a transparent way.
Advanced TV buyers should expect higher CPMs because they're buying more than just the inventory itself. They're also buying the addressability that comes with deep audience data.
If you look at some of the highest priced media per show – you will find no surprise in that Sports or more specifically Football has seen some of the highest cost per show.
An upfront is the commitment of ad dollars for impressions that will be served at a later date. The upfront generally provides buyers with pricing incentives for making early and longer term spend commitments. In TTD’s world and frankly in the stock market, the upfront is akin to forward market buying. We have been speaking about the FM for some time.
The forward market or upfront we see dollars flow into the private marketplace where only a select group of premium advertisers are allowed to participate. The forwrad market, or upfornt will remain an integral piece of TV – ATV will not replace it. We can however enhance it by allowing buyers to automate the process and by allowing sellers to have more control over how their guarantees are filled
both buyers and sellers will require the use of advanced TV solutions to leverage multichannel offerings and rich audience data targeting as consumers consume “TV” in new and continually more complex devices.
52% say it is the digital/video team
32% say TV
There also seems to be consensus that in 12 months time, the percent bought by the TV team will decline to below 30%
Buyers are already moving dollars from nearly every form factor to programmatic today, the last channel to go programmatic was print
Time Inc’s announcement a few weeks back suggests that even print will now be traded programmatically
Over 50% of respondents are buying programmatically today
23% are buy TV
I think it is important to stress that while I talked earlier on about the shift of the $600BN to digital or programmatic, it is good to call out that Buyers are already moving dollars from nearly every form factor to programmatic today, the last channel to go programmatic was print
Time Inc’s announcement a few weeks back suggests that even print will now be traded programmatically
Over 50% of respondents are buying programmatically today
23% are buy TV
When we talk about TV inventory – we mostly talk about linear and advanced TV 69% Ntl Broadcast
68% Ntl Cable
61% Local Affiliate Broadcast
59% Set-Top Boxes/Connected TV (eg, Chromecast, Apple TV)
57% Free Over-the-Top (eg, Hulu)
56% Local Affiliate Cable
Interestingly Premium or Subscription Cable (MVPD was least desirable (48%) and this is the most addressable of linear inventory today
52% say it is the digital/video team
32% say TV
There also seems to be consensus that in 12 months time, the percent bought by the TV team will decline to below 30%
27% believe it will be less than 1 year
30% believe it will take more than 2 years
97% :30
91% :15
79% :60
21% :90
Only 12% are interested in long form
How important is it that connected TV and digital video utilize the same metrics?
93% want consistency in data for connected TV and digital video.
There is a gap that measurement companies need to consider here to help buyers accomplish this goal
Advanced TV represents less friction for both buyers and sellers. It also represents a more relevant ad experience for the viewer/consumer.
Aggregating local TV markets is burdened by friction. Advanced TV takes a hammer to the friction.
One of the prime selling points of Advanced TV is the new ability to attribute successful campaigns across all digital channels: TV, video, display, social and mobile. By leveraging controls such as price floors and data overlays, sellers aren't just guarding against market failures. They're also creating a complementary reason to buy.