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Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06

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Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to ...

Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.

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    Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06 Roadshow, Carnegie, Erkki Raasuke06 Presentation Transcript

    • Hansabank Group Erkki Raasuke, CEO 3 September 2008
    • Content Macro summary Financial highlights Asset quality
    • Real GDP growth, % YoY Baltic macro development 15 10 Estonia • Baltic growth decelerates 5 Latvia % Lithuania – Less favourable global situation, e.g. weaker export demand, more expensive borrowing 0 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 – Imbalances built up during the times of rapid credit growth -5 weigh heavy on the economies, e.g. Domestic Credit and Housing Loans, % of GDP • Economic structure skewed towards domestic demand 100 • Domestic credit at levels close to those in developed EE Domestic 75 credit economies; further rapid growth impossible EE Housing loans • Rapid growth has adversely affected credit quality % 50 LV Domestic credit • Excessive optimism turns into deepening pessimism 25 LV Housing loans LT Domestic credit • Need of restructuring evident 0 LT Housing Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 loans – To return to a sustainable growth path, a move away from non- tradables and towards tradables is necessary: restructuring is Average Labour Productivity growth, % YoY costly and takes time 15 – There are signs of restructuring underway (e.g. shift in 10 investment structure favoring tradables), but it is far from Estonia Latvia complete 5 % Lithuania – The deepest slowing likely to be seen in LV where imbalances (e.g. inflation, current account deficit) have been largest 0 Q1 02 Q1 03 Q1 04 Q1 05 Q1 06 Q1 07 Q1 08 -5
    • Baltic macro outlook (1) • Baltic economies were benchmarked against median of main macro variable’s dynamics during busts in industrial countries • Fall in activity will be shallower and recovery faster than benchmark’s – Less institutional rigidities – Fiscal and monetary policies likely to be less pro-cyclical, support from EU funds – Low actual level of leverage in the economy • Household consumption will contract due to: – Lower real wage growth – Lower employment – Higher interest rates and tighter credit • Investment will contract due to – Lower profit margins – Rising cost of borrowing, need to deleverage • Imports will contract due to shrinking consumption and investment • Recovery in late 2009–2010 depends on global recovery in H2 2009
    • Baltic macro outlook (2) • Export development outlook – Major trade partners - only brief slowdown – Growing global demand motivates businesses to shift from non-tradable to tradable sectors – Producer price inflation of exported goods has swiftly decreased – By 2009 energy prices will have converged to the levels of western Europe – Companies are increasingly investing to improve their productivity thus improving their resistance to negative shocks – EU funds will support efficiency gains/ productivity • Real estate market will lag behind overall recovery as consumers will be unsure about the start of recovery and will try to rebuild their depleted savings first – Despite improving affordability index, prices still too high for general public – Interest rates are rising, which adds to the cost of borrowing – Expectations of price decreases discourages demand – Unsold stocks are building up putting a downward pressure on the price – There are sufficient number of flats in comparison to EU averages
    • Summary – economy and banking sector • Baltic economies have strong long term growth potential, e.g. – Average labour productivity being at 60-70% of the EU 27 average provides ample opportunities for productivity convergence – EU funds are expected to amount to ca 2% of annual GDP till 2013, providing support to real convergence – Only 15-25% of households have mortgages – Good institutional framework, e.g. in the World Bank’s Doing Business 2008 index Latvia ranked 22nd among 175 countries • Significant restructuring of the economies and the banking sector is expected - different risk assessment, different pricing and labour lay-offs – Successful return to sustainable growth path and stability achieved only if successful structural reforms are implemented to boost productivity
    • Content Macro summary Financial highlights Asset quality
    • Highlights (continued operations) – Q2 2008 • Net profit EUR 135m in Q2 2008, EUR +20m vs Q1, annual growth 7% • The following factors affected Hansabank’s Q2 performance: – Positive net effect of one-off transactions – Recovery of trading income to average level – Increase in loan losses mainly in real estate sector • Hansabank’s results without the effect of one-off transactions was the following: – net profit EUR 108m (-15% YoY) – income EUR 255m (+5% YoY) – operating expenses EUR 108 (+14% YoY) – ROE 21.1% – cost-income ratio 42.3% • Loans EUR +700m QoQ, 20% YoY • Deposits EUR +157m QoQ, 10% YoY • Net loan losses increased by EUR 8m from Q1 to 55bps
    • Key financials – Q2 2008 Net income Q2 Q2 Q2 Norm2 150 in millions of EUR 125 2008 2007 %∆YoY %∆YoY 100 75 135 126 125 112 114 Normalized Loans 20,341 16,885 20% 50 25 107 EUR 108m 0 Deposits 11,035 10,006 10% Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Income 259 241 7% 5% Cost-income 50% Expenses 85 94 -10% 14% 40% Normalized 44% Net profit 135 126 7% -15% 40% 39% 38% 41% 33% EUR 42% 30% EVA 79 87 -10% -41% Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Return on equity1 26.3% 32.1% 21.1% ROE on actual equity Cost-income 32.9% 39.0% 42.3% 35% 25% 32% Net interest 30% 29% 24% 24% 26% Normalized 2.69% 2.91% 15% EUR 21% margin Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Employees (FTE) 9,242 9,158 1Group ROE based actual equity 2Q2normalized results - for better comparison, changes in main indicators have been normalized by the effect of disposal of Russian companies, disposal of associated company and reversal of bonus
    • Income and expenses Income Expenses YoY QoQ 125 YoY 300 -10% QoQ +7% +7% 250 -13% 100 200 EURm 75 EURm Normalized 150 EUR 107m, 50 QoQ +14% 100 50 25 0 0 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 • Despite increasing financing cost net interest income decreased only EUR 0.8m compared to Q1 • Trading income recovered from poor results to an average quarterly level • Other income includes gain on the sale of PKK • Operating expenses decreased by 10% YoY to EUR 85m in Q208. Expenses include a reversal of bonus reserve. Without this effect operating expenses grew 14% YoY • Growth in administrative expenses is to a large extent driven by professional services and related to the bank’s investments to longer-term strategic initiatives.
    • Employee productivity • Employee productivity improved in Q2 in Revenue per employee cost, Baltic Banking 8 all countries though still below 2007 level 6 • There is no general bonus reserve allocations in 2008 and total employee efficiency has increased from 2007 4 2 2005 2006 2007 Q1 08 Q2 08 Estonia Latvia Lithuania Baltic Banking 2004 2005 Benchmarking total revenue to personnel cost 2006 2007 6 HBG 2007 4 2 0 Raiffeisen OTP RBC DnB Nor Santander Group Nordea Danske Unicredito SHB BBVA RBS SEB Baltic Hansabank SEB CEE Int.
    • Content Macro summary Financial highlights Asset quality
    • Asset quality and provisioning costs Net loan losses Net loan losses by country 250% 30 Q2 08 Q1 08 2007 200% 25 Estonia 0.58% 0.38% 0.39% 20 EURm 150% 15 Latvia 0.75% 0.54% 0.56% 100% 10 Lithuania 0.31% 0.25% 0.23% 50% 5 Group 0.55% 0.39% 0.40% 0% 0 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Net loan losses NLL YoY % growth Net loan losses = (changes in general and special provisions + net write offs) / credit portfolio at the beginning of the year Net loan losses Net loan losses 2.5% 2.0% Q2 08 Q1 08 2007 1.5% Corporate 0.71% 0.43% 0.42% 1.0% incl real estate 0.98% 0.86% 0.57% 0.5% incl industry 0.83% 0.09% 0.31% 0.0% Private 0.32% 0.32% 0.33% -0.5% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 08 08 incl home loans 0.06% 0.16% N/A -1.0% -1.5% Group 0.55% 0.39% 0.40% -2.0% Estonia Latvia Lithuania Group
    • Asset quality – overdue more than 60 days Overdue more than 60-days/12m old By country* 2.0% 2.0% portfolio 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 08 08 Group Est Lat Lit Group By sector* 1.2% By client type* 2.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Private Corporate Real estate, rent Retail and wholesale Construction Industry Logistics and comm Other business services * Overdues over 60 days / 12 months old portfolio
    • Hansabank Group companies’ overdues vs market Estonia - overdue over 30 days / current Estonia - overdue over 60 days / current portfolio portfolio 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 31.12.05 31.03.06 30.06.06 30.09.06 31.12.06 31.03.07 30.06.07 30.09.07 31.12.07 31.03.08 30.04.08 31.05.08 31.12.05 31.03.06 30.06.06 30.09.06 31.12.06 31.03.07 30.06.07 30.09.07 31.12.07 31.03.08 30.04.08 31.05.08 Rest of the bank market Hansapank (bank only) Rest of the bank market Hansapank (bank only) Latvia - overdue over 30 days / current portfolio Latvia - overdue over 90 days / current portfolio 5% 3% 4% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 31.12.04 31.03.05 30.06.05 30.09.05 31.12.05 31.03.06 30.06.06 30.09.06 31.12.06 31.03.07 30.06.07 30.09.07 31.12.07 31.03.08 31.12.04 31.03.05 30.06.05 30.09.05 31.12.05 31.03.06 30.06.06 30.09.06 31.12.06 31.03.07 30.06.07 30.09.07 31.12.07 31.03.08 Rest of the bank market Hansabanka (bank only) Rest of the bank market Hansabanka (bank only)
    • Deposit and lending growth by countries Deposit growth vs market (only resident for Latvia)* Market Hansa 1,000 750 500 250 0 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 -250 Estonia Latvia Lithuania Loan growth QoQ abs growth YoY % growth 750 100% 600 80% 450 60% 300 40% 150 20% 0 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 * Market data from respective country central banks and financial supervision authorities. Q208 market information for 2 months only
    • Group lending by sectors Portfolio, June 2008 Portfolio growth, Q2 08 Individuals Mortgage Other 43% 249 42% Real-estate 3,110 15% 176 29%** mgmt Retail & 1,803 9% 2 0% Wholesale EURm Industry 1,801 9% 21 4% Transport 1,050 5% -26 -4% Construction 580 3% -13 -2% Other* 3,276 16% 188 31% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 -200 0 200 400 xx% - share of portfolio and portfolio growth *Other loans includes loan amount granted to Hansa Leasing Ltd (Russia). As Russian subsidiaries were sold during Q2 this loan no longer is eliminated as intra-group loan. **Real estate management related portfolio growth includes refinancing of existing loan from Swedbank to Latvian business unit (Nordic real estate group with significant Latvian investments)
    • Real estate portfolio • As indicated by internal stress-tests 2.5% Real estate management overdues* and portfolio analyses, real estate 2.0% and in particular residential real 1.5% estate development is the most 1.0% sensitive sector in HBG portfolio. 0.5% ‘Sensitivity’ has started to appear 0.0% in overdue and default figures of -0.5% Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 * Overdues over 60 days / 12 months old portfolio corporate portfolio. Estonia Latvia Lithuania • Around 2/3 from total Real Estate portfolio are cash flow generating properties with good tenant mix. Properties under development process (1/3 from portfolio) are currently affected the most by decreasing prices and liquidity in the market. Hansabank has always strictly restrained from financing speculative type of properties. • Additional defaults in residential real estate development sector are anticipated in the second half of 2008, but no major surprises are expected due to previously implemented portfolio limitations and individual level monitoring. Restructuring capacity has been put in place.
    • Group lending by sectors – real estate Estonia 6% 22% 15% Portfolio, June 2008 5% 9% 6% 9% Latvia 2% 13% 25% 15% 43% 15% 26% 10% 3% 16% 22% Construction Other Lithuania Individuals Transport 4% 4% 13% Industry Retail & Wholesale Real-estate mgmt 38% 5% Office Production&Warehouse Residential 41% Retail Land plots 34% Other
    • Sectors under close watch 2.0% Transportation overdues* Transportation Trucking companies are facing problems due to 1.5% increasing fuel prices and lagging freight rates. This 1.0% global problem has started to reflect in Hansabank’s 0.5% provisions (especially in SME segments) since the beginning of the year. 0.0% Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Estonia Latvia Lithuania * Overdues over 60 days / 12 months old portfolio Retail & wholesale Trade volumes’ growth rates have slowed down and started to decrease in Estonia and Latvia in Q2 2008 (still growing in Lithuania). There is no substantial impact on portfolio quality yet, but worsening is expected along with decrease in consumption. Wood processing Raw material price increase coupled with sales price downwards pressure are having a negative impact on Baltic wood processing industry. Current portfolio quality is around average with only few problem cases observed. Additional problems may occur after export duties will be imposed on Russian round wood as there is dependence on imported round wood in Estonia.
    • Mortgages • Standard mortgage product allows to Portfolio, June Estonia Latvia Lithuania 2008 issue new loans with maximum LTV Average portfolio below 85% and loan-service ratio 59% 74% 61% LTV below 50%. Average maturity 21y 23y 22y • Mortgage portfolio LTV ratios have remained solid at 59% in Estonia, 74% in Latvia and 61% in Lithuania. • Quality of existing portfolio and each new customer/transaction are evaluated using automated scoring tools. • Decision making process, product conditions, and pricing are adjusted based on creditworthiness of the clients. • Sub-prime type of mortgage lending is not practiced in Baltics
    • Short-term focuses and actions taken • Manage credit portfolio in the slowdown – Proactive management of watch-list – Overdue management – Restructuring capabilities – New origination quality • Implementation of Basel II IRB – Documents supplied, on-site visits ongoing by FSA – Process managed by Swedish FSA • Operational excellence initiative launched in 2007 to increase efficiency • Changing brand in the Baltics to Swedbank
    • Summary • Short-term challenges – Credit quality – Operational efficiency • Building capabilities going forward – Cross-border operating model – Business processes for more mature markets • Committed to fulfilling medium-term goals
    • Thank you!
    • Regular process of outstanding loan review • Portfolio quality improvement measures introduced already at the end of 2006 • Real estate sector growth under control, existing portfolio regularly scrutinized • Strengthened risk units – Increased number of people dealing with problem loans – Strengthened workout team – Improved the quality and increased frequency of portfolio quality reporting • Set targets for new origination quality • Regular loan review process includes – Overall portfolio stress test once a year – Portfolio review 2x per year – Quarterly “watch list” report – IRB portfolio scoring 1x per month • On the individual loan basis: – Client rating review minimum 1x per year • Rating classes 5 and higher are subject to more frequent assessment – Quarterly financials/covenants assessment – For SME/SSE and private portfolio weekly overdue report (with client names identified)
    • Credit quality management process • Proactive management of watch list clients – Private clients - communication on step-by-step actions to take before falling into overdues. Development of standard proactive solutions to ensure serviceability of the credit – Corporate clients - proactive communication, frequent client meetings and positive attitude to find solutions • Overdue management - concentrates on time horizon from occurrence of distress situation (either through late payment or on the bases of client information) to moving credit over to restructuring or workout phase. The primary focuses in overdue management is: – Process design for fast and prudent management of overdues, clear process ownership – Prudent tactics to handle overdue payments. Constant re-evaluation of the tactics on their effectiveness and adequacy – Clearly set timing and means of client contacts – Build capacity to work with distressed clients and adequate training of employees – Internal target setting and incentives to reach targets – Up to time reporting and follow up on taken activities • Distressed debt restructuring – Defined tactics of restructuring. Solutions to ensure client serviceability of the debt – Extended capacity to work with distressed clients – Effective solutions for collected collaterals handling
    • One-off effects on Q2 2008 results • Following larger one-off events affected Q2 performance: – Sale of Russian business unit. On 12 May 2008, AS Hansapank and AS Hansa Capital entered into an agreement with Swedbank AB for the sale of OAO Swedbank and Hansa Leasing Ltd. The transfers were made at market value and the sale resulted in a loss of EUR 3m. – Sale of Pankade Kaardikeskus (Banks’ Cards Center, PKK). In Estonia, Hansapank, SEB Pank and Sampo Pank sold PKK to Northern Europe Transaction Services. Capital gain on the sale of the shares in associated company was EUR 7m. – Reversal of bonus reserve. The accumulated bonus reserves were reduced by about EUR 20m during Q2 2008 due to excessive accrual in recent years; as a result performance based staff costs in Hansabank decreased with the same amount. • The one-off effects are recorded at the Hansabank group level and not allocated to country business units. • Current financial analysis is presented for continued operations (without OAO Swedbank and Hansa Leasing Ltd). All historical ratios have been recalculated for continued operations.
    • Export sectors Main export sectors - Estonia Main export sectors - Latvia 100% 9% 9% 100% 9% 9% 25% 29% 30% 80% 31% 80% 37% 33% 33% 9% 23% 11% 60% 6% 6% 60% 9% 12% 7% 7% 8% N/A 40% 22% 23% 40% 30% 27% 24% 29% 24% 7% 7% 8% 20% 7% 20% 6% 8% 8% 16% 15% 9% 4% 3% 7% 4% 8% 7% 7% 7% 12% 14% 15% 0% 0% 2003 2005 2007 Q1 08 2003 2005 2007 Q1 08 Food, beverages, tobacco etc Mineral products Food, beverages, tobacco etc Mineral products Chemicals Plastic, rubber, wood etc Chemicals Plastic, rubber, wood etc Textiles, footwear Machinery and equipment Textiles, footwear Machinery and equipment Metals + other Metals + other Main export sectors - Lithuania 100% 27% 22% 25% 21% 80% 11% 12% 11% 14% 60% 10% 7% 15% 8% 12% 10% 9% 7% 14% 9% 40% 7% 8% 27% 14% 23% 20% 20% 17% 15% 11% 13% 0% 2003 2005 2007 Q1 08 Food, beverages, tobacco etc Mineral products Chemicals Plastic, rubber, wood etc Textiles, footwear Machinery and equipment Metals + other