Lecture georgetown university on disaster resilience
Strat adviser ebola rapid reflection force
1. Stratadviser Ltd 2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House - London - W1J 6BD UK
Registered in England No 6322224
contact@stratadviser.com
phone: +44 (0) 207 887 4510
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Ebola Rapid Reflection Force
Dr Jan-Cedric Hansen
The current Ebola Outbreak demonstrates the need to think of our vulnerabilities in the
context of highly compressed time units. The combination of the long incubation period
virus – 2 to 21 days during which there is no evidence that a given individual is
contaminated – and the jet airliner dramatically changes the rules: in a matter of few
hours a contaminated individual travel within the ECOWAS and beyond as far as the North
American economic space or the Schengen space and, as soon as he/she expresses the
first symptoms – some 2 to 21 days after – he/she starts to contaminate his/her
environment, neighbouring, herd or pets which in turn become potential new reservoirs
(rodents, dogs, pigs, …). But Planes are not the sole issue. Trains, boats (either river’s or
coaster’s), cars, buses, taxis, motorbikes, … enable extended domestic and international
exchanges of potential vectors (either individuals, animals or goods)
To respond to this situational analysis, the French Society for Disaster Medicine, the West
African Health Organisation and StratAdviser Ltd suggest funding an Ebola Rapid
Reflection Force according to Patrick Lagadec principles1.
The objective of this Ebola Rapid Reflection Force is not to find “the right script”, “the right
answer”, but to sketch out the maps that could help to muddle through the uncharted
waters of this outbreak.
Up to now, we have been entirely focused on the answers – the WHO’s roadmap as an
example – now we must shift to the questions and to invent new intelligence, attitude,
and practice for a chaotic situation2,3.
It is time to set a relevant doctrine regarding the management of the Ebola Outbreak,
then to elaborate the related efficient strategy in order to elicit the proper tactical
response.
In other words, we need to clarify the Doctrinal, Strategic and Tactical issues of the
Outbreak:
Doctrinal issue:
1 Patrick Lagadec. A new cosmology of risks and crises time for a radical shift in paradigm and practice.
cahier de recherche 2008-08. 2008. <hal-00338386>
2 Lagadec, Patrick (2007), “Over the edge of the world”, Crisis Response Journal, vol. 3, issue 4, September
2007, pages 48-49.
3 Cabinet Office (2008): The National Security Strategy of the United Kingdom – Security in an
interdependent world, HMSO.
2. Stratadviser Ltd 2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House - London - W1J 6BD UK
Registered in England No 6322224
contact@stratadviser.com
phone: +44 (0) 207 887 4510
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What are the ethical, public health and geopolitical / economical / sociological
/ psychological impacts that we want to prevent
Strategic issues:
What are the objectives that we want to achieve?
What are the endpoints we want to reach?
What are the criteria that will tell us that the crisis is over?
what are the limitations of the European/USA resources (methodological,
logistical, manpower, financial, ...)
what should we plan according to the answers of the above queries?
how should we conduct according to the the answers of the above queries?
Tactical issues:
should we or shouldn't we (what is the benefit/risk ratio) bring back Ebola cases
within the Schengen or North American space?
The Ebola Rapid Reflection Force would fill the gaps as an expert group to assist those
in charge at WHO, World Bank, UN, NAFTA, EU, ECOWAS, … levels.
In order to run such a Ebola Rapid Reflection Force we would need a chairman, an
acting secretary, members, communication tools, resources (methodological,
logistical, manpower, financial, …)
The Ebola Rapid Reflection Force would not start from scratch.
Currently StratAdviser Ltd thanks to a covenant with WAHO and the SFMC, contributes
to the cross interpretation of available epidemiological, factual, medical, economical,
sociological, .. data and provide an update every 10 days.
Thanks to the joint SFMC and StratAdviser Ltd Think Tank of more than 500 experts of
emergency response, BCNR, Crisis management, Vaccine development, litigation …
from British, French and other European as well as West African public and private
bodies, the Ebola Rapid Reflection Force would be readily available should appropriate
funding be available.
Key actors of the Ebola Rapid Reflection Force
Dr Jan-Cedric Hansen Member of the Board of StratAdviser Ltd, Ebola
Consultant for the West African Health Organisation
Gal Henri Julien President of the French Society of Disaster Medicine
Dr Franck Van Trimpont Chairman of the European Council for Disaster
Medicine
M Patrick Lagadec World known consultant on Crisis Management
3. Stratadviser Ltd 2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House - London - W1J 6BD UK
Registered in England No 6322224
contact@stratadviser.com
phone: +44 (0) 207 887 4510
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Costing of the ERRF
1. Ebola Outbreak Update every 10 days
Compilation of data gathered from ECOWAS/WAHO, WHO, CDC, InVS, MSF, Red Cross, Ordre
de Malte - analysis of data - editing of update – dissemination of the “Dynamic Vision of the
Ebola Outbreak” newsletter
£ 61,416
2. Everyday Ebola Think Tank management
Monitoring of main media sources regarding Ebola – daily contribution to the Ebola Outbreak
Management Group which count 431 members and weekly contribution on other social
media such as Public Health Early Warning Group (3,705 members); Google +; Facebook…
£ 70,968
3. ERRF Formal Session
Meeting of the ERRF key actors with additional experts in order to elaborate appropriate and
useful responses regarding the doctrinal, strategic and tactical issues of the West African
Ebola Outbreak
£ 84,464
4. Ebola Outbreak Annual Meeting
Organisation of annual meeting (2 days) in Paris, 100 attendees (2 to 3 representatives/body:
health authority, foreign affairs, other) of EU, UN, WB, BGF, MSF, Red Cross, Ordre de Malte,
USA, Canada, F, S, DK, D, I, UK, B, L, CH, ECOWAS, UA, COMEDS, PHE, SSA, MINSAN, SFMC,
ECDM, sponsors, …) in order to discuss doctrine and strategy, share update about the
outbreak, anticipate potential scenarios and acknowledge achievements
£ 586,780
5. ERRF Road Book & Quarterly report
Compilation, editing and publication of RFF or Ebola meeting minutes, dissemination among
members, health authorities, journalists and social media
£ 87,310
6. 24/7 experts pool
Permanent pool of 3 experts ready to move to any destination to respond to specific needs
(implies to manage a larger permanent pool of 33 experts “on call” for a month/year -
estimation of one 5 days mission/quarter)
£ 159,255
4. Stratadviser Ltd 2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House - London - W1J 6BD UK
Registered in England No 6322224
contact@stratadviser.com
phone: +44 (0) 207 887 4510
4
Should you considerto provide a financial contribution to this initiative please contact
us:
StratAdviser Ltd
2nd Floor, Berkeley Square House,
London, W1J 6BD UK
Phone: +44 (0) 207 8874510
Fax: +44 (0) 207 8876001
contact@stratadviser.com