2. High demand from groups and business travelers will more than offset the effect
of a weak economy.
U.S. revenue per available room (RevPAR) will increase 7.2% this year on a
4.6% rise in room rates and a 1.5-point gain in occupancy.
PwC in June forecasted a 6.5% RevPAR increase for 2012.
High-end hotels are expected to continue to lead the advance, reflecting an
economy in which larger businesses and wealthier leisure travelers appear to be
less impacted by financial uncertainty.
With occupancy surpassing recent prior peak levels in the luxury, upper-upscale
and upscale segments, the lodging recovery is intact.
PwC maintained its 2013 RevPAR growth forecast of 5.6%.
By next year, PwC forecasts U.S. hotel occupancy will reach 61.9%, marking the
fourth straight annual increase and the highest occupancy rate since it reached
62.8% in 2007.
Inflation-adjusted average revenue per available room* of U.S. lodgings from
2001 to 2013 (in U.S. dollars)
4. The hotel occupancy outlook for third quarter 2012 through second quarter 2013
is strong, with group committed room nights up 5.9 percent and transient room
nights reserved up 7 percent based on current reservations and group
commitments on the books in comparison to same time last year.
The July NAHR looks at group sales commitments and individual reservations in
25 major North American markets booked by July 1, 2012 for July 2012 to June
2013.
Committed occupancy for the third quarter of 2012 through the second quarter
of 2013 (or the next 12 months) is up 6.1 percent in comparison to same time
last year, with 20 of the top 25 North American markets showing increases in
committed occupancy for this time period. Average daily rate is also
growing, with an increase of 5.5 percent over the same time last year.
The above information, coupled with detailed information on each of the next
four quarters, verifies the outlook by most forecasting firms that suggests
REVPAR increases of 5-10 percent over the next 12-18 months in the US.
5. • PKF-HR is projecting RevPAR for U.S. hotels will increase by 5.8 percent in
2012, and another 6.6 percent in 2013. The 2012 annual RevPAR growth forecast of
5.8 percent is the result of a projected 1.6 percent increase in occupancy and a 4.1
percent gain in average daily rate (ADR).
• With demand growth forecast to continue to rise greater than supply in most cities
over the next two years, 42 of the 50 markets are projected to exceed their long-run
average occupancy levels by 2014.
• The combination of efficient revenue growth and expense controls will result in
attractive levels of hotel profit growth through 2016.
• PKF-HR is projecting unit-level net operating income (NOI) growth to average 10
percent per year through 2016. This is superior to the long-run average NOI growth
rate of 3.9 percent.
• Luxury and upper-upscale properties achieved the greatest gains in RevPAR during
the initial stages of the industry recovery; however, going forward, PKF-HR believes
the greatest gains in annual performance will shift to the more moderate-priced
segments. 'Capacity restraints and high ADRs at upper-tier hotels will force travelers
to seek accommodation in the lower-tier properties.
• The cities of Nashville, Houston, New Orleans and Salt Lake City are forecast to
experience the greatest gains in demand in 2012. The early stages of the U.S.
lodging industry recovery favored the large gateway markets. The return of demand
to cities in the nation's midsection is a sign that the recovery is expanding beyond the
Atlantic and Pacific coasts
6.
7.
8. • In Q2, 2012, the U.S. hotel industry’s occupancy increased 3.1 percent to 65.1
percent, average daily rate rose 4.7 percent to $106.41 driving revenue per available
room up 7.9 percent to $69.32.
Source: Smith Travel Research 2010-2011,
R. A. Rauch & Associates, Inc. 2012-2013.
9. • For 2012, the industry is expected to record a 2.1-percent increase in occupancy to 61.2
percent, an average-daily-rate gain of 4.4 percent to US$106.15 and a revenue-per-
available-room increase of 6.5 percent to US$65.01.
• Supply and demand are expected to end the year with increases of 0.5 percent and 2.6
percent, respectively.
• Roomnight demand will stabilize with modest growth likely for the remainder of 2012 and
into 2013.
• In 2013, STR predicts occupancy to be virtually flat with a 0.3-percent increase to 61.4
percent, ADR to rise 4.6 percent to US$111.01 and RevPAR to grow 4.9 percent to
US$68.17.
• In 2013 supply (+1.4 percent) and demand (+2.0 percent) are both expected to report
growth.
Total United States performance forecast
Supply Demand Occupancy % change ADR % change RevPAR % change
2012 +0.8% +1.3% 60.4% +0.5% $105.45 +3.8% $63.68 +4.3%
2013 +1.4% +2.0% 60.7% +0.5% $110.06 +4.4% $66.81 +4.9%
10. Note: This presentation has been compiled from various news articles and
press releases by SmartData Partner Pvt. Ltd.