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En CPM se asume que la duración de cada actividad es conocida con certeza. Claramente, en muchas ocasiones este supuesto no es valido. PERT intenta corregir este error suponiendo que la duración de cada actividad es una variable aleatoria. Para cada activad, se requiere estimar las siguientes cantidades: a = Tiempo Optimista. Duración de la actividad bajo las condiciones más favorables b = Tiempo Pesimista. Duración de la actividad bajo las condiciones más desfavorables m = Tiempo Normal. El valor más probable de la duración de la actividad. La forma de la distribución se muestra en la siguiente Figura. 6 tiempo más probable es el tiempo requerido para completar la actividad bajo condiciones normales. Los tiempos optimistas y pesimistas proporcionan una medida de la incertidumbre inherente en la actividad, incluyendo desperfectos en el equipo, disponibilidad de mano de obra, retardo en los materiales y otros factores. Para ver el gráfico seleccione la opción "Descargar" del menú superior Con la distribución definida, la media (esperada) y la desviación estándar, respectivamente, del tiempo de la actividad para la actividad Z puede calcularse por medio de las fórmulas de aproximación.

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