The new Poland Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.04% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional power generation by 2014, and remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,936TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 13.8% during the period 2010-2014. CEE thermal power generation in 2010 was around 1,294TWh, accounting for 50.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,441TWh, implying 11.4% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 49.1% ' in spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Poland's thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 150TWh, representing 11.60% of the regional total. By 2014 it is expected to account for 11.65% of thermal generation. For Poland, coal is the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 58.2% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 26.7%, gas at 13.1% and hydro with a 0.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,472mn toe by 2014, representing 13.5% growth over the period 2010-2014. Poland's estimated 2010 market share of 7.40% is set to fall to 7.25% by 2014. Poland has no operational nuclear generating capacity and is not expected to build a new plant during the forecast period. It makes no contribution to regional nuclear energy consumption. Poland is now positioned mid-table alongside Romania and behind Russia in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, in spite of its power consumption growth outlook, substantial installed capacity and power generation, competitive landscape and progress towards full power market deregulation. Country risk factors complement the many industry strengths, but Poland is ranked equal fourth. It should be able to keep Slovakia and Hungary at bay, and has the potential to challenge Russia above it. BMI forecasts average annual Polish real GDP growth of 4.0% between 2010 and 2014, with an assumed 2010 increase of 3.4%. The population is expected to slip from 38.2mn to 38.0mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase by 55% and 18% respectively. The country's electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 144.5TWh in 2010 to 169.3TWh by the end of the forecast period, with theoretical export capability of 8TWh, assuming 3.4% average annual growth in electricity generation in 2010-2014. Between 2010 and 2019 we are forecasting an increase in Polish electricity generation of 33.4%, which is middle of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 17.7% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 13.3% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 11.1% in 2010-2014 to 15.4% in the 2014-2019 period, representing 28.2% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 35% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 32% between 2010 and 2019. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.

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Poland Power Report Q4 2010
Published on October 2010
Report Summary
The new Poland Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.04% of Central and Eastern European (CEE)
regional power generation by 2014, and remain a net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2010 will
have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. We are forecasting a
rise in regional generation to 2,936TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 13.8% during the period 2010-2014.
CEE thermal power generation in 2010 was around 1,294TWh, accounting for 50.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our
forecast for 2014 is 1,441TWh, implying 11.4% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 49.1% ' in
spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Poland's thermal generation in 2010
is an estimated 150TWh, representing 11.60% of the regional total. By 2014 it is expected to account for 11.65% of thermal
generation. For Poland, coal is the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 58.2% of 2010 primary energy demand (PED), followed
by oil at 26.7%, gas at 13.1% and hydro with a 0.8% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,472mn toe by
2014, representing 13.5% growth over the period 2010-2014. Poland's estimated 2010 market share of 7.40% is set to fall to 7.25%
by 2014. Poland has no operational nuclear generating capacity and is not expected to build a new plant during the forecast period. It
makes no contribution to regional nuclear energy consumption.
Poland is now positioned mid-table alongside Romania and behind Russia in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, in
spite of its power consumption growth outlook, substantial installed capacity and power generation, competitive landscape and
progress towards full power market deregulation. Country risk factors complement the many industry strengths, but Poland is ranked
equal fourth. It should be able to keep Slovakia and Hungary at bay, and has the potential to challenge Russia above it. BMI forecasts
average annual Polish real GDP growth of 4.0% between 2010 and 2014, with an assumed 2010 increase of 3.4%. The population is
expected to slip from 38.2mn to 38.0mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to
increase by 55% and 18% respectively. The country's electricity consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 144.5TWh in
2010 to 169.3TWh by the end of the forecast period, with theoretical export capability of 8TWh, assuming 3.4% average annual
growth in electricity generation in 2010-2014.
Between 2010 and 2019 we are forecasting an increase in Polish electricity generation of 33.4%, which is middle of the range for the
CEE region. This equates to 17.7% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 13.3% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 11.1% in
2010-2014 to 15.4% in the 2014-2019 period, representing 28.2% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 35% in hydro-power
use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 32% between 2010 and
2019. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.
Table of Content
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis .... 6
Poland Power Business Environment SWOT .. 6
Poland Political SWOT 7
Poland Economic SWOT... 8
Industry Overview .... 9
Global . 9
Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014 9
Poland Power Report Q4 2010 Page 1/5

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Central And Eastern Europe 10
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) 11
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) 12
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe) . 13
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm) . 14
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe) . 15
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh) .. 16
Market Overview ' Poland 17
Primary Energy Demand 17
Power Generation . 17
Power Consumption ... 18
Regulation And Competition 19
Pricing ... 21
Power Transmission .. 22
Business Environment .... 23
Central and Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings . 23
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings .... 23
Overview Of Poland's Power Rating .. 24
Rewards . 24
Risks . 24
Legal Framework.. 25
Infrastructure ... 26
Labour Force ... 27
Foreign Investment Policy ... 28
Tax Regime . 29
Security Risk .... 30
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 31
Poland's Power Outlook . 31
Generation .. 31
Gas-Fired ... 31
Oil-Fired 32
Coal-Fired .. 32
Nuclear Energy 33
Hydro-Electric . 34
Renewable Energy 34
Power Costs 35
Transmission .... 36
Table: Poland's Power Sector, 2007-2014 ... 37
Table: Poland's Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014 .... 38
Table: Poland's Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014 . 39
Table: Poland's Power Sector, Costs, 2007-2014... 40
Assumptions And Methodology . 40
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario .... 40
Long-Term Power Outlook .. 41
Macroeconomic Outlook . 41
Poland GDP by Expenditure 42
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts 44
Global Snapshot.... 44
Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019 ... 44
Regional Outlook .. 44
Poland Power Report Q4 2010 Page 2/5

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Table: Central And Eastern Europe Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) ... 45
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe) . 46
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) 47
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) . 48
Table: Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) .... 49
Poland Country Overview .... 50
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 50
Competitive Landscape ... 51
Tauron Polska Energia ... 53
Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne/Polska Grupa Energetyczna .. 53
Poludniowy Koncern Energetyczny .... 54
BOT .. 54
ENEA Energy Group . 54
RWE/STOEN .... 55
Vattenfall .... 55
Electrabel ... 56
Company Monitor ... 57
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) .... 57
Poludniowy Koncern Energetyczny .... 61
Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data . 63
Section 1: Population . 63
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 63
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 64
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 64
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ... 64
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 64
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 65
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ... 65
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ... 65
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ... 66
BMI Methodology ... 67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 67
Power Industry 67
Cross Checks ... 68
Sources .. 68
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