Rail shipments between Mexico and the US are recovering, according to data released in December 2009 by the Association of American railroads (AAR). Mexico remains heavily reliant on the US for its trade needs and, though, volumes are recovering, both imports and exports remain significantly below predownturn levels. According to AAR statistics, in the week ending December 11, rail freight movement between Mexico and the US totalled 12,583 railcars ' a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of about 2%. A greater increase was seen in the volume of containerised rail freight with 6,768 containers transported bilaterally between the two countries, equivalent to a 13.6% y-o-y growth. The figures represent a notable recovery in rail freight activity, after an accumulated 10.8% decrease in shipments during the first 49 weeks of 2009, including a 14.4% drop in containerised rail freight volumes. We have not changed our main macroeconomic forecasts since our last quarterly report. We estimate that GDP contracted by 7.1% in 2009, but maintain our projection for 2010 at +3.2% followed by +3.3% in 2011. These are our latest figures. Affected by the severity of last year's slump, growth in 2005-09 averaged a low 1.0% per annum, but we see that number rising to 2.8% in 2010-2014. This means that the macro-economic environment will be more supportive for the freight industry in the five years starting in 2010. We have maintained most of our earlier changes to mode-specific freight carried-to-GDP ratios. President Calder

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Mexico Freight Transport Report Q2 2010
Published on February 2010
Report Summary
Rail shipments between Mexico and the US are recovering, according to data released in December 2009 by the Association of
American railroads (AAR). Mexico remains heavily reliant on the US for its trade needs and, though, volumes are recovering, both
imports and exports remain significantly below predownturn levels. According to AAR statistics, in the week ending December 11, rail
freight movement between Mexico and the US totalled 12,583 railcars ' a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of about 2%. A greater
increase was seen in the volume of containerised rail freight with 6,768 containers transported bilaterally between the two countries,
equivalent to a 13.6% y-o-y growth. The figures represent a notable recovery in rail freight activity, after an accumulated 10.8%
decrease in shipments during the first 49 weeks of 2009, including a 14.4% drop in containerised rail freight volumes.
We have not changed our main macroeconomic forecasts since our last quarterly report. We estimate that GDP contracted by 7.1% in
2009, but maintain our projection for 2010 at +3.2% followed by +3.3% in 2011. These are our latest figures. Affected by the severity
of last year's slump, growth in 2005-09 averaged a low 1.0% per annum, but we see that number rising to 2.8% in 2010-2014. This
means that the macro-economic environment will be more supportive for the freight industry in the five years starting in 2010. We
have maintained most of our earlier changes to mode-specific freight carried-to-GDP ratios. President Calderón is committed to a
large road-building programme and this has been taken into account, although the slowdown in the US economy has reduced the
pace of Mexican road haulage growth. Despite the recession, we believe that trade with Mexico's northern neighbour will recover in
the medium to long term and more shipments destined for the world's largest economy will be brought in through Mexican ports such
as Lázaro Cárdenas. Earlier, we trimmed back slightly our pipeline throughput estimates, given slower output growth from some key
oil fields. We also trimmed airfreight projections because of the generally tougher economic climate and the swine flu threat earlier in
2009. We have also reset out shipping forecasts, linking them to Mexico's overseas trade, which will fall sharply this year. Bearing
recovery from these factors in mind, our overall forecast is now that freight carried across all modes, measured in mntkm, will grow by
an annual average of 3.4% throughout the 2010-2014 forecast period.
According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP contracted 6.9% in 2009, less severely than the 7.1%
contraction in the wider economy. For the 2010-2014 forecast period we expect the transport and communications sector to outpace
the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 3.2%, versus 2.8% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and
communications GDP will rise to US$174.4bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 11.5% of Mexico's GDP. The transport and
communications sector employed 1.91mn people, or 4.6% of the labour force, in 2009. We see that figure rising to 2.01mn by 2014,
although as a proportion of the labour force it will remain constant at 4.6%.
Transport activity in Mexico grew moderately through the 1990s. Overall transport demand is driven by trade volumes and, in
particular, by trade with the US, which accounts for 88% of exports and 63% of imports. The modal split for land transport has
remained broadly stable. This stability is of particular note given the major changes in the rail sector brought about by privatisation in
the mid-1990s. We forecast that road haulage freight carried will grow by an annual average of 3.2% over the forecast period.
Medium-term growth in trade with the US and the development of road infrastructure will be pluses, although poor infrastructure will
continue to be a constraint. Rail freight growth, at 3.9%, will lead the way in ground transportation, boosted by the development of
private railways, the recovery of transit business from Mexico's Pacific coast through to the US and the growing realisation that rail is
one of the most cost-effective modes for bulk freight. Maritime cargo will grow by an average of 4.1%, as we predict recovery from the
effects of the global shipping slump, helped by the expansion of Lázaro Cárdenas port that will help combat bottlenecks. Airfreight will
expand by 3.5% a year, given that we see some oversupply persisting in the domestic market.
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Table of Content
Executive Summary ...5
SWOT Analysis .7
Mexican Road Haulage Industry SWOT .... 7
Mexico Political Swot 7
Mexico Economic Swot .. 8
Mexico Business Environment Swot .8
Business Environment Ratings 9
Table: Americas Freight Transport Business Environment Ratings 9
Mexico Freight Transport Rating Overview ... 9
Mexico Logistics Performance Index (LPI) .. 10
Political Risk Summary . 10
Economic Risk Summary . 11
Business Environment Risk Summary . 12
Legal Code/Corruption . 12
Red Tape ... 12
Labour Force . 13
Table: Mexico's Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ... 13
Industry Trends And Developments ..15
Road .... 16
Rail . 16
Air . 18
Sea 18
Pipelines ... 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Global Oil Products Price Outlook, Q110 .... 21
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl) 22
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) 23
Macroeconomic Overview ... 24
Table: Mexico ' Economic Activity, 2007-2014 .. 25
Transport Outlook ... 25
Table: Mexico's Freight Transport Indicators, 2007-2014 . 27
Table: Freight Carried, Domestic And International, 2007-2014 (mn tonnes km, unless otherwise stated) .. 28
Trade Environment ...29
Table: Value Of Imports By Category, 2007-2014 (US$mn) .... 30
Table: Value Of Exports By Category, 2007-2014 (US$mn) .... 31
Table: Mexico's Top Export Destinations, 2002-2006 (US$mn) .... 32
Table: Mexico's Export Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y) ... 33
Table: Mexico's Import Trade, 2003-2006 (% growth y-o-y) ... 33
Table: Mexico's Top Import Sources, 2001-2006 (US$mn) 34
Market Overview ..35
Infrastructure . 35
Competitive Landscape: Multi-Modal And Logistics 35
Company Profile: Grupo TMM . 40
Table: Grupo TMM's Key Financial Data .... 41
Table: Income Statement, 2007-Q109 (MXNmn) . 42
Road ... 43
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Infrastructure . 43
Competitive Landscape . 43
Rail .... 47
Infrastructure . 47
Competitive Landscape . 47
Company Profile: Grupo México ... 50
Table: Grupo México's Financial Performance, 2007 And 2008 .. 52
Air . 53
Infrastructure . 53
Competitive Landscape . 53
Consorcio Aeroméxico .. 58
Table: Consorcio Aeroméxico's Financial Performance, 2003, 2004 And 2008 (US$mn) ... 59
Water . 60
Infrastructure . 60
Maritime Competitive Landscape .. 60
Pipelines ... 65
Competitive Landscape . 65
Country Snapshot: Mexico Demographic Data 67
Section 1: Population .... 67
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 67
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 68
Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 68
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ... 68
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 68
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 69
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ... 69
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 69
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ... 70
BMI Methodology 71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 71
Transport Industry ... 71
Sources 72
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