Japan's arrival numbers have grown steadily since 2001. Although they took a hit in 2009, falling to 6.66mn, after reaching 8.35mn in 2008, arrivals are forecast to rebound in 2010 to 8.45mn. The number of air and sea tourist arrivals continually increased from 2001 to 2007. Tourist arrivals by air are by far the most predominant, with 8.49mn arriving by air in 2007 compared to 666,000 by sea. Leisure arrivals outnumber those visiting Japan for business purposes. In 2009, leisure arrivals totalled 4.65mn, while business arrivals came to 1.24mn, both falling from 2008 but forecast to pick up in 2010, BMI forecasts that the number of leisure arrivals will continue to grow for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 8.44mn by 2014, while business arrivals are forecast to reach 1.74mn. Japan is targeting Chinese tourists and has plans to ease visa regulations for Chinese citizens. Japan Tourism Agency (JTA) commissioner Hiroshi Mizohata, appointed in January 2010, said the agency hopes to announce new visa regulations before summer 2010. As well as a new commissioner, the JTA has launched a new slogan and logo. The 'Japan: Endless Discovery' slogan is part of the country's revamped tourist promotions to boost inbound visitor numbers. The latest logo depicts white Japanese cherry blossom against a red sun background. Individual and collective government expenditure is forecast to decline over the coming years. The Japanese government's individual expenditure has risen since it came in at US$15.64mn in 2001 but is forecast to peak at US$22.11 in 2010. We forecast individual government tourism expenditure to decline to US$19.81mn by 2014. The government's collective tourism expenditure is also expected to decrease during the forecast period. In 2001, collective expenditure came in at US$12.30mn and peaked at US$17.32mn in 2009. From 2010, BMI forecasts collective expenditure to fall, reaching US$15.43mn by 2014. There is room for growth in the low-cost carrier segment of the Japanese airline market. Japan's air industry has been dominated by Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA). Budget airlines have not sprung up in Japan as in the rest of the Asia Pacific region due to the country's expensive and inefficient airports. That said, Ibaraki Airport at Omitama, just over 50 miles north of Tokyo, opened in March 2010 and is intended to be a no-frills airport, which could allow for low-budget airlines to enter the market. Ibaraki only offers two flights per day, one to the South Korean capital Seoul on Asiana Airlines and another to Kobe by Skymark Airlines. ANA is considering launching a low-cost carrier to take advantage of the new runway at Haneda Airport in Tokyo.

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Japan Tourism Report Q3 2010
Published on May 2010
Report Summary
Japan's arrival numbers have grown steadily since 2001. Although they took a hit in 2009, falling to 6.66mn, after reaching 8.35mn in
2008, arrivals are forecast to rebound in 2010 to 8.45mn. The number of air and sea tourist arrivals continually increased from 2001 to
2007. Tourist arrivals by air are by far the most predominant, with 8.49mn arriving by air in 2007 compared to 666,000 by sea. Leisure
arrivals outnumber those visiting Japan for business purposes. In 2009, leisure arrivals totalled 4.65mn, while business arrivals came
to 1.24mn, both falling from 2008 but forecast to pick up in 2010, BMI forecasts that the number of leisure arrivals will continue to
grow for the remainder of the forecast period, reaching 8.44mn by 2014, while business arrivals are forecast to reach 1.74mn.
Japan is targeting Chinese tourists and has plans to ease visa regulations for Chinese citizens. Japan Tourism Agency (JTA)
commissioner Hiroshi Mizohata, appointed in January 2010, said the agency hopes to announce new visa regulations before summer
2010.
As well as a new commissioner, the JTA has launched a new slogan and logo. The 'Japan: Endless Discovery' slogan is part of the
country's revamped tourist promotions to boost inbound visitor numbers. The latest logo depicts white Japanese cherry blossom
against a red sun background.
Individual and collective government expenditure is forecast to decline over the coming years. The Japanese government's individual
expenditure has risen since it came in at US$15.64mn in 2001 but is forecast to peak at US$22.11 in 2010. We forecast individual
government tourism expenditure to decline to US$19.81mn by 2014. The government's collective tourism expenditure is also
expected to decrease during the forecast period. In 2001, collective expenditure came in at US$12.30mn and peaked at US$17.32mn
in 2009. From 2010, BMI forecasts collective expenditure to fall, reaching US$15.43mn by 2014.
There is room for growth in the low-cost carrier segment of the Japanese airline market. Japan's air industry has been dominated by
Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA). Budget airlines have not sprung up in Japan as in the rest of the Asia Pacific
region due to the country's expensive and inefficient airports. That said, Ibaraki Airport at Omitama, just over 50 miles north of Tokyo,
opened in March 2010 and is intended to be a no-frills airport, which could allow for low-budget airlines to enter the market. Ibaraki
only offers two flights per day, one to the South Korean capital Seoul on Asiana Airlines and another to Kobe by Skymark Airlines.
ANA is considering launching a low-cost carrier to take advantage of the new runway at Haneda Airport in Tokyo.
Table of Content
Executive Summary .......................... 4
SWOT Analysis .................................. 5
Japan Tourism SWOT ............................................................................. 5
Japan Political SWOT ............................................................................ 5
Japan Economic SWOT .......................................................................... 6
Industry Forecast Scenario ............... 7
Arrivals ................................................................................................... 7
Table: Arrivals Data And Forecasts, 2006-2014 ('000) ......................... 7
Accommodation ...................................................................................... 8
Table: Accommodation Data And Forecasts, 2006-2014 ('000) .............. 8
Expenditure Data .................................................................................... 8
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Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2006-2014............. 9
Inbound Tourism ................................................................................... 10
Table: Inbound Tourism Data And Forecasts, 2006-2014 ('000, unless otherwise stated)
.................................................................................. 10
Outbound Tourism ................................................................................ 11
Table: Outbound Tourism Data And Forecasts, 2006-2014 ('000, unless otherwise stated)
............................................................................... 11
Market Overview ' Travel ................ 13
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ....................................................... 14
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl)............. 16
Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl) ... 17
Market Overview ' Hospitality ........ 18
Security Risk Analysis .................... 19
Tourism Business Environment Ratings ................................................ 19
Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings ........... 19
BMI's Security Ratings ......................................................................... 19
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings ...................................... 20
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ................. 20
Japan's Security Rating ........................................................................ 21
City Terrorism Rating ........................................................................... 21
Table: BMI's Asia City Terrorism Index ............................................... 22
North East Asia Security Overview ....................................................... 23
Currency Forecast ........................... 27
Table: BMI's Japan Currency Forecasts, 2010-2011 ........................... 27
Global Assumptions ....................... 28
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
.............................................................................................. 28
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014 ................................................ 29
Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 ..................... 30
Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012 ................... 32
Company Profiles ............................ 33
All Nippon Airways ............................................................................... 33
Japan Airlines ....................................................................................... 33
JAL Hotels ............................................................................................ 33
Kamori Kanko ....................................................................................... 34
Country Snapshot: Japan Demographic Data............................................................................................. 35
Section 1: Population ............................................................................ 35
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ......................................... 35
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ........................................ 36
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ................................................... 36
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ............................................................... 36
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ......................................................... 36
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ................................... 37
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ........................................... 37
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ................................. 37
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 ........................................... 38
BMI Methodology ............................ 39
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ........................................... 39
Tourism Industry ................................................................................... 39
Tourism Ratings ' Methodology ........................................................... 40
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Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators ................................ 41
Table: Weighting of Components .......................................................... 42
City Terrorism Rating ........................................................................... 42
Table: Methodology .............................................................................. 43
Sources ................................................................................................. 44
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