This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI which seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging markets. Once again, the questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues that will matter to actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, both over the long and the short term' What are the main constraints that they face' What are the key insights that one garners when one compares the real estate sector of the country concerned with its peers in other countries' This quarter, we have sought to place the real estate sector in the context of regional and global developments that took place in late 2009. Although the details vary from country to country, the key themes are as follows: a sharp recovery in the prices of real estate investment trusts (REITs) worldwide (albeit not to the highs achieved in 2007-2008) point to a stabilisation of capital values and yields; the latest data that has been compiled by major international commercial real estate firms show that such a stabilisation is, indeed taking place; a clear increase in capital raisings by REITs and listed vehicles in North America suggests that market protagonists in that part of the world are taking the view that ' at long last ' bargains may be appearing in some markets; by traditional measures, particular markets (such as London offices) appear cheap; conversely, oversupply will likely remain a challenge in most prime office markets across the Asia Pacific region and in the industrial sector in North America. An increase in investment activity in Europe and Asia Pacific suggests that the availability of finance has improved dramatically since the beginning of the year. However, Europe's non-listed real estate funds will not necessarily find it easy through 2010 and 2011 to raise the EUR23bn that they need to refinance. For each country, we include forecasts of office rents through to 2014.
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Hong Kong Real Estate Report Q2 2010
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Hong Kong Real Estate Report Q2 2010
Published on March 2010
Report Summary
This is the latest edition of a new series of industry reports published by BMI which seeks to identify the key dynamics of the real
estate sectors of 44 countries around the world, some of which are developed and some of which are, in every sense, emerging
markets. Once again, the questions that we seek to answer for each country remain as follows: What are the main issues that will
matter to actors in and around real estate development in the country concerned, both over the long and the short term' What are the
main constraints that they face' What are the key insights that one garners when one compares the real estate sector of the country
concerned with its peers in other countries'
This quarter, we have sought to place the real estate sector in the context of regional and global developments that took place in late
2009. Although the details vary from country to country, the key themes are as follows: a sharp recovery in the prices of real estate
investment trusts (REITs) worldwide (albeit not to the highs achieved in 2007-2008) point to a stabilisation of capital values and
yields; the latest data that has been compiled by major international commercial real estate firms show that such a stabilisation is,
indeed taking place; a clear increase in capital raisings by REITs and listed vehicles in North America suggests that market
protagonists in that part of the world are taking the view that ' at long last ' bargains may be appearing in some markets; by traditional
measures, particular markets (such as London offices) appear cheap; conversely, oversupply will likely remain a challenge in most
prime office markets across the Asia Pacific region and in the industrial sector in North America. An increase in investment activity in
Europe and Asia Pacific suggests that the availability of finance has improved dramatically since the beginning of the year. However,
Europe's non-listed real estate funds will not necessarily find it easy through 2010 and 2011 to raise the EUR23bn that they need to
refinance. For each country, we include forecasts of office rents through to 2014.
Table of Content
Executive Summary ..........5
Key Features Of This Report ................6
SWOT Analysis .7
Hong Kong Real Estate/Construction SWOT ......... 7
Hong-Kong Political SWOT ... 7
Hong-Kong Economic SWOT 8
Hong-Kong Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Real Estate Investment Trusts ..............9
Table: REIT Returns ' FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Real Estate Index And Components, 2007-Q110 (% change) ................ 10
Real Estate Market Overview ..............13
Construction Overview ...14
Table: Hong Kong ' Major Infrastructure Projects ' Construction .......... 15
Industry Forecast Scenario ................16
Asia Pacific Real Estate Outlook .......... 16
Table: Asia Pacific Housing Prices At A Glance (% cange y-o-y) ............. 16
Table: Asia Pacific Office Rents, CBRE .... 18
Hong Kong's Real Estate Outlook ........ 18
Hong Kong's Construction Outlook ...... 19
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Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data ......... 19
Hong Kong's Monetary Policy .............. 20
Table: Hong Kong ' Monetary Policy, 2007-2014 ............... 22
Hong Kong Macroeconomic Outlook ... 23
Table: Hong Kong ' Economic Activity, 2007-2014 ............. 24
Business Environment ...25
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings ..... 25
Table: Asia Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings ....... 25
Hong Kong's RECBER ........ 26
Asia Pacific Project Finance Ratings ... 27
Table: Design And Construction Rating .... 30
Table: Commissioning And Operating Rating ..... 31
Table: Overall Project Finance Rating . 32
Hong Kong's Business Environment ..... 33
Table: BMI's Operational Risk Ratings 34
Table: BMI's Legal Framework Ratings .... 37
Table: Labour Force Quality ................ 40
Table: Annual FDI Inflows Into Asia, 2006-2008 42
Table: BMI's Trade Ratings 43
Table: Hong Kong's Exports By Top Destination Countries, 2001-2008 .. 44
Company Monitor ............47
Cheung Kong (Holdings) ..... 47
Cheung Kong Infrastructure (CKI) Holdings ....... 49
Chinese Estates Holdings .... 52
CLP Power Hong Kong ....... 54
Henderson Land Development .............. 56
Sino Land .. 58
Sun Hung Kai Properties ..... 60
BMI Forecast Modelling ..62
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 62
Construction Industry 62
Bank Lending ............. 63
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating ....... 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ............ 65
Project Finance Ratings Indicators ...... 67
Table: Design And Construction Phase 67
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase ' Commercial Construction ......... 68
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase ' Energy And Utilities ........ 69
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase ' Transport .... 71
Sources .. 72
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