#Oges oil price presentation dr. lynch- dr.sorin- dr.eve-giorgos-casper

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Oges Webinar
OIL PRICE: Calculation, Prediction and Impact
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#oges-oil-price-webinar

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Our Distinguished Speakers
Oges Webinar on Oil Price(Calculation, Prediction and Impact)
Dr. Sorin Dobircianu
Director of GSG Romania, Universal
Premium Luxemborg,Operations
Director- Expert Energy Co.
Dr. Mike Lynch
President, Strategic
Energy and Economic
Research, a
consultancy
Giorgos Beleris
Lead Oil Analyst,
MEA,Thomson
Reuters
Dr.Eve Sprunt
Author, Award
Winning Energy
Leader, Ex-SPE
President
#ogesEORwebinar
Casper Sønderby
Head of Projects,
AH Industries

Dr. Michael C. Lynch is president of Strategic Energy and
Economic Research, a Massachusetts-based consultancy. He
held a number of research positions at M.I.T. and was chief energy
economist at DRI-WEFA. He currently blogs at forbes.com, and
his publications have appeared in six languages. Praeger will
publish his book The Peak Oil Scare and the Coming Oil Flood in
June 2016.

• ARE PRICES STOCHASTIC?
● NO, JUST COMPLEX
• ECONOMIC BOTTOM VERY LOW
● BUT TRADERS DECIDE
• GOVERNMENT POLICY EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
● SAUDI VIEW OF SUSTAINABLE PRICE
● HOW MANY OTHERS EQUAL SAUDI ABILITY TO CUT?
• PAST COLLABORATORS: VENEZUELA, MEXICO, OMAN, RUSSIA, NORWAY
• NEW SPIKE ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY
FORECASTING OIL PRICES

LAST YEAR’S PRICE FORECAST SURVEY
DOE

CHANGE IN OIL BALANCE (MB/D)
IEA DATA AND
FORECAST.

CHANGE IN CALL ON OPEC (MB/D)
IEA DATA AND

KEY FACTORS
• CHINESE ECONOMY
● GLOBAL ECONOMY
• US SHALE OIL
• IRANIAN SUPPLY
• POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
● VENEZUELA
● LIBYA

HOW DID SHALE GAS
SURPRISE?
• OVERESTIMATED COSTS
• MASSIVE IMPROVEMENT WITH TIME
● COST/WELL DOWN 50% OR MORE
● WELL PRODUCTIVITY SOARING
• SHIFT IN FOCUS
● MARCELLUS AND UTICA REPLACE BARNETT
• HIGH WELL PRODUCTIVITY
• HIGH NGLS CONTENT
• CAN SHALE OIL DO THE SAME?

SHALE OIL: BOOM
OR BUST?
• BOOM AT $100, BUST AT $50?
• SOME SEE HIGH COSTS
● BERMAN: 1% OF BAKKEN WELLS PROFITABLE
● MOST STATIC ESTIMATES
• DRILLING HAS DROPPED SHARPLY
• NEARLY ALL BREAKEVEN ESTIMATES AT $60
● MANY HIGHER
• LARGER COMPANIES REPORT SIGNIFICANT PROFITS AT $50/BBL
● SMALL PRODUCERS HAVE HUGE DEBT LOADS

PRODUCTION IN PRIMARY OIL
SHALES

READING SUPPLY CURVES
MARGINAL COST IS D, BUT NOT A PRICE FLOOR.
LARGE PRICE
DROP CAN BE SMALL VOLUME DROP.

PRICE
RESTORATION• SAUDIS REVERSE COURSE
● ACCEPT WEAKNESS AS TEMPORARY
• SMALLER MEMBERS REACH AGREEMENT
● NEED TO ABSORB 1 MB/D FOR A YEAR (STOCKS)
• NON-OPEC DROPS SHARPLY
● SHALE
• DEMAND BOOM
● CHINESE ECONOMY ESPECIALLY
● LOW PRICES’ IMPACT
• SUPPLY DISRUPTION
● VENEZUELA (BUT TEMPORARY)
• PRICE CEILING: SHALE OIL COSTS

EXPECTATIONS
• ECONOMIC RECOVERY IMPORTANT
• SHALE OIL MIGHT SURPRISE
● MODERATE GROWTH 0.5 MB/D POSSIBLE
• IRANIAN OIL WILL KEEP PRESSURE ON MARKET
• PRICE FORECASTS
● PICKENS: $70 IN 6 MOS.
● CITICORP: $51 IN 2016
● JP MORGAN: $51.75 2016

#ogesEORwebinar
BOOK BY DR. LYNCH..
Oil, though finite, is in much better supply
than many renewable resources..

Dr.Sorin Dobircianu works extensively with numerous Canadian, Romanian and
international companies in foreign capital investment projects.
He has served as principal advisor and expert to more than 15 companies, to name a few:
LukOil, Terra Active International, Eagle Group Irak. With more than 20 years in the industry
Dr. Sorin brings to the table expertise in issues related to markets development and access,
political positioning, crisis management/avoidance,multi-state lobby and promotion
campaigns.
He has helped establish partnering agreements with multinational corporations and is
involved in the promotion of certain high-profile regional and global energy security
in the Middle East, the Caspian Sea Region, China, the Russian Federation, the USA and
Europe.
Dr. Sorin has authored several scientific research and educational works including the global
best seller on strategic and management issues entitled “The Management of
Communication for business.”
He holds Ph. D. in Oil, Gas and Mines from the Petroleum and Gas State University Romania.

Principal Factors for OIL PRICE Calculations
● International Trade
● International Relations
● Overseas Energy Policies
● National Defense and Intelligence
● Financial Programs for Different Governments
*Poll Question (on Screen) :
Connections to Banking System
impacting Oil Prices?
YES
NO

Oil & Gas Markets & Macro Systems
● China - Russia Relationship
● Japan- Russia Relationship
● Southeastern Asia Macro System Strategy - Sync with Hong
Kong & China
● Notheren America(Texas) - Canada,
● BRICS
● RIAC(Russian International Affairs Council)

Upcoming Strategies and Endeavors in Global Oil & Gas Market
● Asia- US
● Europe
● Middle-East
● Black Sea Energy Region

Strategic International Alliances in Europe and elsewhere..

The Pivotal Role of Players from East and West
● Marsh McLennan Companies
● Podesta Group
● Manatt Global Jones
● Shell
● BP
● Royal Dutch
● IFP (Paris)
● Confindustria (Italy)
● Defence Unlimited
(www.defenceunlimited.con)
● Anderson Canada
(www.andersonconsulting.info)
● H2Oil UK (British Group)
(www.h2oil.co.uk)
● Universal Premium Luxembourg
● Criabo Amsterdam
(http://universal-
premium.com/investment_fund.html)

How To Survive The Current Drop In Crude Oil Prices?

Eve Sprunt, Phd, is a consultant with more than 35 years of experience
as an executive and research scientist in the petroleum industry,
including Chevron’s worldwide university recruiting. She was specifically
honored for game-changing contributions to the petroleum industry, to
the science and practice of geosciences and petroleum engineering, and
to the advancement of women engineers by Society of Petroleum
Engineers.With more than 3 decades in oil & gas, Eve is an expert in
bringing ideas and experiences together to create new solutions and
opportunities for the community at large. It would be very interesting
and a privilege to hear about her new book “A GUIDE FOR DUAL-
CAREER COUPLES: REWRITING THE RULES”

Shale Technology has written new rules :
With the "shale" reservoirs :
● lower quality resources can also produce economically.
● there is increase in the volume of new potential resources.
As US shale reservoirs can be developed at relatively low cost,
● the major oil companies no more control the business
● as soon as price recovers, many companies will get back in the game.
Reflecting On Market Dynamics: Impact Due to US Shale
Oges Poll Question 4: (on Screen)
New technology applied to Shale has
unlocked new resources?
YES
NO

Oil Price Fluctuations during Oil Cycle and Demographics
● Oil is a commodity , thus its price walks through boom-bust cycles.
● Inflation adjusted price charts show oil price tends to be low with the peaks unsustainable.
(Inflation adjusted price charts at www.inflationdata.com)
● Oil price affects the workforce diversity & composition
Reflecting On Market Dynamics: Impact on Work Force

Change in Age Demographics of the
Society of Petroleum Engineers
• Petroleum industry age
demographics are
impacted by oil price
• During tough times -
• few people are hired
• older workers retire

Changing Gender Mix in
Society of Exploration Geophysicists
• A higher percentage of
younger people in the oil
industry are female
• 7% of SEG members 55 to
64 are female
• 32% of SEG members 18 to
24 are female

Workforce of the Future
Members of Dual-Career Couples
• Technical women more
likely to be in couple of
“equal earners” who each
provide 40 to 60% of
household income
• Younger men more likely
to be in an “equal earner”
couple
From 2013 Survey of the Society of Exploration Geophysicists with nearly 1600
responses
Eve Sprunt, Nancy House, and Maria Angela Capello, SEG survey on dual career-couples and women:
The Hidden Diversity of Dual-Career Couples, The Leading Edge, 2014, v. 33, No. 7, pp. 812 - 816.

Reflecting On Market Dynamics: Impact on
Community, specifically on Women in Oil & Gas
*You may book your copy of this book at amazon <Link>

Giorgos is one of the founding members of the
Thomson Reuters Oil Research & Forecasts (R&F) team
in London and is currently leading the new Oil R&F
team in Dubai. He is involved with oil flows,
fundamentals research and model development.
Giorgos has developed the Oil R&F's forecasting models
for crude prices and oil demand. He holds a MMath in
Applied Mathematics and Physical Sciences and an MSc
in Renewable Energy Engineering.

OPEC OIL Flows- February 2016
● Oil Flow Methodology(by Thomson Reuters)
● OPEC Exports
● Export Focus
❏ Saudi Arabia
❏ Iraq
❏ Iran
*you may access detailed report at http://goo.gl/NAE3mL

Iran: Post Sanctions
❏ Iran Economy
❏ Upstream Oil
❏ Trade Flows
*You may access detailed report at http://goo.gl/RZaTLR

Renewable Energy- A Factor impacting Oil Price?

Casper Sønderby is Head of projects, at AH industries
He leads delivery (EPCI & EPC) for the OEMs in the wind
industry. In his stint of 20+ years in oil & gas industry he
has worked with DONG E&P ,Semco Maritime as
Manager on leading project portfolios.
.

M
• Increasing demand
• Decreasing supply of
hydrocarbons

M
● Data shows, production ratio
Little or no impact on oilprices
○ Looking ahead 2020 –
2025 :Increase in demand
from 3rd world countries
based on infastructure,
grid for power suply
○ Big Picture: Growth in
hydrocarbon demand will
preserve price of oil

Energy consumption
per inhabitant

M
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2016 at www.oges.info

#Oges oil price presentation dr. lynch- dr.sorin- dr.eve-giorgos-casper

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#Oges oil price presentation dr. lynch- dr.sorin- dr.eve-giorgos-casper