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ESTRATEGIA DE DEFENSA




Elaborado por: Mirko Montoya A.
23 de Mayo 2012
ALGUNAS PRESUNCIONES ACERCA
DE LAS ACCIONES….
“Las acciones se mueven en base a
          fundamentos”
“Las acciones rinden más que los
            bonos”
Rendimiento acciones vs bonos
         2009-2012
“Los mercados están baratos”

                                       Downside (*)
                                        - 4%


                                        - 11%



                                        -15%




Fuente: Kallpa SAB, Marzo 2012
* Variación del 01/03/12 al 23/05/12
“Se tiene que invertir en el largo
             plazo”
“La diversificación disminuye el riesgo”
“Se puede ganar al mercado”
Caso 1:                                  Caso 2:
% aciertos = 100%                        % aciertos = 50%
% Ganancia/Pérdida = +10%                % Ganancia/Pérdida = +/-10%

 # DE    CAPITAL   GANANCIA/   CAPITAL    # DE    CAPITAL   GANANCIA/   CAPITAL
OPERAC   INICIAL    PERDIDA     FINAL    OPERAC   INICIAL    PERDIDA     FINAL
   1     100.000     10.000    110.000      1     100.000      10.000   110.000
   2     110.000     11.000    121.000      2     110.000     -11.000    99.000
   3     121.000     12.100    133.100      3      99.000      -9.900    89.100
   4     133.100     13.310    146.410      4      89.100      8.910     98.010
   5     146.410     14.641    161.051      5      98.010      9.801    107.811
   6     161.051     16.105    177.156      6     107.811     -10.781    97.030
   7     177.156     17.716    194.872      7      97.030      -9.703    87.327
   8     194.872     19.487    214.359      8      87.327      8.733     96.060
   9     214.359     21.436    235.795      9      96.060      9.606    105.666
  10     235.795     23.579    259.374     10     105.666     -10.567    95.099


Conclusión: diferentes manejos de trading y de gestión del capital
arrojan diferentes resultados
Interpretación: menor número de aciertos y menor ratio de
ganancia/pérdida conducen a elevar el % de probabilidad de ruina
“Las pérdidas se recuperan”
“La Bolsa no se puede pronosticar”
Ejemplo cartera xxx:
Acción         % cartera   Precio al   Precio al   Variación
                           01/03/12    23/05/12
Credicorp        15%        129.05      122.02      - 5.5%
Buenaventura     15%        40.15       36.70       - 8.6%
Intergroup       20%        34.40       31.00       - 9.9%
Ferreyros        10%         3.05        2.70       - 1.1%
Rio Alto         10%         4.06        3.87       - 4.7%
GLD              30%        172.00      151.62     - 11.8%



 --) Pérdida de cartera = -23%

  Necesita recuperar un 30% para volver a tener
 el capital inicial
S&P 500 ??




Podría haber una caída adicional del 7%
Plan de acción
1. Olvidar recuperar las pérdidas mayor riesgo
2. Redefinir sus objetivos necesidad vs. deseo
3. Evaluar su cartera y detener las pérdidas
4. Calcular el nivel de ingreso mínimo que necesita
   e invertir la mayor parte en productos que lo
   garanticen (acciones con mejores fundamentos,
   bonos, Fondos Mutuos).
5. Con el saldo invertir en instrumentos que
   limiten el riesgo (ETFs, opciones) o no estén muy
   correlacionados con la Bolsa.
• Ejemplo: mi cartera original fué de $ 100,000 y tuve
  una pérdida de 23%, por lo tanto el saldo es de $
  77,000.
• Mi nuevo objetivo será mantener un capital mínimo de
  $ 50,000 y ganar $ 3,000 en el año (rentabilidad de
  6%).
• Analizo mi cartera y veo si vale la pena conservar
  alguna acción que vaya a apreciarse 6% en 01 año. Sino
  la cambio por bonos o un fondo mutuo que me pague
  lo mismo (ejemplo High Yield).
• Con los $ 27,000 restantes puedo comprar ETFs
  apalancados (2x, 3x) u opciones call/put dependiendo
  de la tendencia del mercado.
• También puedo invertir en otros mercados que no
  estén correlacionados (ejemplo REITs).
Bonos emergentes
Fondo Mutuo High Yield
Comparativo de activos
                                                    BONOS                                                        BS DE
              BOLSA                                                                       REAL                              FONDOS    HEDGE                                                       BOLSA
MES/AÑO                                                                                            UTILITIES   CONSUMO                           METALES PRECIOSOS         MINERAS JUNIOR
              EE.UU.                                                                     STATE                              MUTUOS    FUNDS                                                       PERU
                           Soberanos Grado invers Municipales Alto rendimEmergentes                             BASICO
    jun-12
   may-12
    abr-12                  TIP = 7%               MUB = 3%
   mar-12      SPY = 11%
                                                                                       VNQ = 16%                            MERFX =   ETJ = 1%                                        PML = 52%
    feb-12    UPRO = 31%               LQD = 5%                HYG = 6%                            XLU = 4%
                                                                                                                              2%
   ene-12                                                                  EMB = 9%                            XLP = 13%                                                                          BAP = 30%
    dic-11                  TIP = 2%
                                                                                                                                                                         RIO = 70%
   nov-11
                                                                                                                                                 GLD = 6%
    oct-11
                                                   MUB = 12%                                       XLU = 6%
   sep-11
   ago-11                                                                                                                                        GLD = 16% SLV = 11%
                            TLT = 28%
     jul-11                           LQD = 6%
                           TMF= 100%
    jun-11
                                                                           EMB = 3%
   may-11
    abr-11                                                                                                                                       GLD = 11%
                                                                                                                                                             SLV = 40%
   mar-11
    feb-11                                                                                                     XLP = 15%
   ene-11                                                                              VNQ = 28% XLU = 14%                 MERFX =
              SPY = 17%
    dic-10                                                     HYG = 13%                                                   1%                                                         PML =
              UPRO = 47%
   nov-10                                                                                                                                                                             140%
                                                                                                                                                             SLV = 47%
    oct-10                                                                                                                                       GLD = 14%
   sep-10                                                                                                                                                                RIO = 344%
                                                                           EMB = 11%
   ago-10                  TLT = 13%                                                                                                                                                              BAP = 35%
     jul-10                TMF = 34%   LQD = 7%
    jun-10
   may-10
    abr-10                                                                                                                                       GLD = 10%
                                                                                       VNQ = 13%
   mar-10                                                                  EMB = 3%
                                                   MUB = 10%                                                                          ETJ = 4%
    feb-10
   ene-10
    dic-09
   nov-09                                                                                                      XLP = 24%
                                                                                                                            MERFX =
    oct-09                                                                             VNQ = 45%                                                 GLD = 17% SLV = 14%                              EPU = 38%
              SPY = 28%                                                                            XLU = 12%                 10%
   sep-09
              UPRO = 67%                                       HYG = 31% EMB = 25%
   ago-09
                                       LQD = 13%                                                                                      ETJ = 6%
     jul-09                                                                                                                                                                           BAP = 51%
    jun-09
   may-09                                                                                                                                        GLD = 8%
    abr-09

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Estrategia de defensa

  • 1. ESTRATEGIA DE DEFENSA Elaborado por: Mirko Montoya A. 23 de Mayo 2012
  • 3. “Las acciones se mueven en base a fundamentos”
  • 4. “Las acciones rinden más que los bonos”
  • 5. Rendimiento acciones vs bonos 2009-2012
  • 6. “Los mercados están baratos” Downside (*) - 4% - 11% -15% Fuente: Kallpa SAB, Marzo 2012 * Variación del 01/03/12 al 23/05/12
  • 7. “Se tiene que invertir en el largo plazo”
  • 9. “Se puede ganar al mercado” Caso 1: Caso 2: % aciertos = 100% % aciertos = 50% % Ganancia/Pérdida = +10% % Ganancia/Pérdida = +/-10% # DE CAPITAL GANANCIA/ CAPITAL # DE CAPITAL GANANCIA/ CAPITAL OPERAC INICIAL PERDIDA FINAL OPERAC INICIAL PERDIDA FINAL 1 100.000 10.000 110.000 1 100.000 10.000 110.000 2 110.000 11.000 121.000 2 110.000 -11.000 99.000 3 121.000 12.100 133.100 3 99.000 -9.900 89.100 4 133.100 13.310 146.410 4 89.100 8.910 98.010 5 146.410 14.641 161.051 5 98.010 9.801 107.811 6 161.051 16.105 177.156 6 107.811 -10.781 97.030 7 177.156 17.716 194.872 7 97.030 -9.703 87.327 8 194.872 19.487 214.359 8 87.327 8.733 96.060 9 214.359 21.436 235.795 9 96.060 9.606 105.666 10 235.795 23.579 259.374 10 105.666 -10.567 95.099 Conclusión: diferentes manejos de trading y de gestión del capital arrojan diferentes resultados
  • 10. Interpretación: menor número de aciertos y menor ratio de ganancia/pérdida conducen a elevar el % de probabilidad de ruina
  • 11. “Las pérdidas se recuperan”
  • 12. “La Bolsa no se puede pronosticar”
  • 13. Ejemplo cartera xxx: Acción % cartera Precio al Precio al Variación 01/03/12 23/05/12 Credicorp 15% 129.05 122.02 - 5.5% Buenaventura 15% 40.15 36.70 - 8.6% Intergroup 20% 34.40 31.00 - 9.9% Ferreyros 10% 3.05 2.70 - 1.1% Rio Alto 10% 4.06 3.87 - 4.7% GLD 30% 172.00 151.62 - 11.8% --) Pérdida de cartera = -23%  Necesita recuperar un 30% para volver a tener el capital inicial
  • 14. S&P 500 ?? Podría haber una caída adicional del 7%
  • 15. Plan de acción 1. Olvidar recuperar las pérdidas mayor riesgo 2. Redefinir sus objetivos necesidad vs. deseo 3. Evaluar su cartera y detener las pérdidas 4. Calcular el nivel de ingreso mínimo que necesita e invertir la mayor parte en productos que lo garanticen (acciones con mejores fundamentos, bonos, Fondos Mutuos). 5. Con el saldo invertir en instrumentos que limiten el riesgo (ETFs, opciones) o no estén muy correlacionados con la Bolsa.
  • 16. • Ejemplo: mi cartera original fué de $ 100,000 y tuve una pérdida de 23%, por lo tanto el saldo es de $ 77,000. • Mi nuevo objetivo será mantener un capital mínimo de $ 50,000 y ganar $ 3,000 en el año (rentabilidad de 6%). • Analizo mi cartera y veo si vale la pena conservar alguna acción que vaya a apreciarse 6% en 01 año. Sino la cambio por bonos o un fondo mutuo que me pague lo mismo (ejemplo High Yield). • Con los $ 27,000 restantes puedo comprar ETFs apalancados (2x, 3x) u opciones call/put dependiendo de la tendencia del mercado. • También puedo invertir en otros mercados que no estén correlacionados (ejemplo REITs).
  • 19. Comparativo de activos BONOS BS DE BOLSA REAL FONDOS HEDGE BOLSA MES/AÑO UTILITIES CONSUMO METALES PRECIOSOS MINERAS JUNIOR EE.UU. STATE MUTUOS FUNDS PERU Soberanos Grado invers Municipales Alto rendimEmergentes BASICO jun-12 may-12 abr-12 TIP = 7% MUB = 3% mar-12 SPY = 11% VNQ = 16% MERFX = ETJ = 1% PML = 52% feb-12 UPRO = 31% LQD = 5% HYG = 6% XLU = 4% 2% ene-12 EMB = 9% XLP = 13% BAP = 30% dic-11 TIP = 2% RIO = 70% nov-11 GLD = 6% oct-11 MUB = 12% XLU = 6% sep-11 ago-11 GLD = 16% SLV = 11% TLT = 28% jul-11 LQD = 6% TMF= 100% jun-11 EMB = 3% may-11 abr-11 GLD = 11% SLV = 40% mar-11 feb-11 XLP = 15% ene-11 VNQ = 28% XLU = 14% MERFX = SPY = 17% dic-10 HYG = 13% 1% PML = UPRO = 47% nov-10 140% SLV = 47% oct-10 GLD = 14% sep-10 RIO = 344% EMB = 11% ago-10 TLT = 13% BAP = 35% jul-10 TMF = 34% LQD = 7% jun-10 may-10 abr-10 GLD = 10% VNQ = 13% mar-10 EMB = 3% MUB = 10% ETJ = 4% feb-10 ene-10 dic-09 nov-09 XLP = 24% MERFX = oct-09 VNQ = 45% GLD = 17% SLV = 14% EPU = 38% SPY = 28% XLU = 12% 10% sep-09 UPRO = 67% HYG = 31% EMB = 25% ago-09 LQD = 13% ETJ = 6% jul-09 BAP = 51% jun-09 may-09 GLD = 8% abr-09