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Rewards Cards in the U.S., 3rd Edition

September 1, 2010


2010 brings a perfect storm to the credit card industry, driven by recession-induced
changes that are reshaping its core. At the same time, card rewards have become
ubiquitous. In the face of some of the most significant changes the credit card industry
has ever faced, some argue that rewards programs are simply no longer feasible in an
era of constrained revenue and profits. However, as detailed in Packaged Facts’
Rewards Cards in the U.S., it is not a matter of eliminating reward programs, but rather
about adapting them to some of the most significant changes the credit card industry
has ever faced.

In its most consultative report in the series, this 3rd edition of Rewards Cards in the
U.S. helps position industry participants to navigate this reengineering in card rewards
by assessing the following industry trends and challenges:

        How does continued migration to electronic payments shape the future of
        rewards?
        Which regulatory changes are most relevant to rewards?
        Understanding the macroeconomic and credit factors that shape the pool of
        current and future credit card customers.
        How large is this pool of customers?
        Does the current credit environment effect migration from credit to debit? Why?
        How?
        Which fee structures are being implemented—or could be implemented—to
        counteract regulatory change?
        How are card issuers’ credit card portfolios adapting to change? How can they
        share in tapping a smaller pool of cardholders while growing profits?
        What will happen to affluent, credit worthy cardholders? Less credit worthy
        cardholders? How do rewards play a role?
        Can rewards help grow transactions and help extend card reach beyond a
        shrinking consumer base?
        How does closed-loop versus open-loop competition and significant industry
        consolidation affect competition?
        What is the fate of co-brand rewards?
        Which reward types best fit the needs of specific consumers?
Over the course of the recession, which consumers are active card users?
       Multiple card users? Transactors? Revolvers? How has this changed over time?

In addition to (or as part of) addressing these issues, this report trends consumer use of
credit cards, analyzing usage patterns from 2007 to 2010, identifying specific consumer
groups according to active card usage, cards in wallet, and classification as transactors
or revolvers. In doing so, Packaged Facts assesses some factors most integral to credit
worthiness, including net worth, home value, and HH income.

Rewards Cards in the U.S., 3rd Edition also contains:

       In-depth competitive profiles of the associations and major issuers written by
       industry experts
       Selected strategic card players assessments
       Comprehensive, holistic assessment of macroeconomic and credit trends
       Complete market size and forecast

For a full assessment on how regulatory changes is reshaping consumer banking—and
reshaping consumer relationships, preferences, and attitudes about banking—please
see Packaged Facts’ upcoming Regulatory Change: Consumer Banking and the New
Consumer Relationship.



Additional Information

Market Insights: A Selection From The Report



Consumer Credit Trends

As reflected in the Macroeconomic Influences, Regulations and the Rewards Card
Market chapter, consumers have a decidedly pessimistic economic outlook, as they
struggle under the burden of higher unemployment and lower household wealth. But
along with that burden, they must also contend with an unfortunate—and related—
chicken-and-egg phenomenon: their own reluctance to use credit and an unforgiving
credit environment. In this chapter, Packaged Facts assesses the direction of consumer
credit and debt trends and their relationship to the credit card industry. As part of doing
so, the chapter concludes with trended assessment of the “Big Six” credit card portfolios
(Bank America, JPMorgan Chase, Capital One Financial, American Express, Citigroup,
and Discover Financial Services).

Debit Rewards
According to Packaged Facts’ Co-Brand and Affinity Credit Cards: The U.S. and Global
Markets and Opportunities, 3rd Edition (November 2009), debit cards continue to
increase in popularity, and while their growth rate has slowed, it has outstripped that of
credit cards. Many of the same conveniences of credit cards can be found in debit
cards. For example, as with credit cards, debit cards relieve consumers of the task of
having to withdraw cash from the bank. Debit cards also offer an added cash-related
advantage in that most larger merchants allow debit card users to withdraw cash from
their registers in limited amounts. In addition, debit cards are just as quick as credit
cards, permitting consumers to make purchases with a swipe and a signature or
punched-in PIN. Importantly for consumers struggling with debt and bad credit, it’s also
much easier to obtain a debit card than a credit card. For many consumers, debit cards
are also budgeting tools. Since debit cards draw on funds that account holders already
have, undisciplined...

Card metrics
JPMorgan Chase analyzes its credit card portfolio on a managed basis, which includes
credit card receivables on the Consolidated Balance Sheets and those receivables sold
to investors through securitizations. Below, Packaged Facts breaks out card receivables
and delinquency rates in three ways: for Card Services, for Card Services minus the
Washington Mutual portfolio, and for the Washington Mutual portfolio. In aggregate,
JPMorgan Chase attributed these increases to the current weak economic environment,
especially in metropolitan statistical areas (“MSAs”) experiencing the greatest housing
price depreciation and highest unemployment and to the credit performance of loans
acquired in the Washington Mutual transaction.

In The News



Reward Programs Remain Integral to Success of a U.S. Credit Card Market in Flux

New York, August 16, 2010 — While the credit card industry has suffered from
significant account attrition and in some cases decreased spend per card since the
recession, rewards programs continue to be integral to the market’s success, according
to Rewards Cards in the U.S., 3rd Edition by market research publisher Packaged
Facts. Rewards remain a cornerstone of American Express and Discover, while among
some of the biggest card issuers in the country, Visa- and MasterCard-branded rewards
programs are either being refreshed or are being brought to market for the first time.

“The recession has brought tremendous upheaval to the industry, which has worked
aggressively to counteract the financial consequences of the Credit CARD Act and the
close of an era where loose credit was the norm,” says Don Montuori, publisher of
Packaged Facts. “We don’t believe the trend toward significant account attrition has
played itself out yet. But we ultimately predict that though the number of credit cards in
force will continue to decline into 2011, rewards will selectively play a more important
role than ever before.”
The degree to which cardholders are rewarded is an important issue facing the
industry. The answer will be driven more and more precisely and selectively by the
return that cardholders generate for card players based on how much cardholders
spend, where they use their cards, and whether they are willing to pay for better
rewards. It’s a quandary that is already being addressed by the marketplace, but will
also continue to shape the industry in the future as reward programs become less
egalitarian with larger returns in percentage terms dictated by cardholder behavior. The
“losers” in the rewards game will be lower spending and higher risk cardholders, whom
the market has already deemed marginal returns on investment, comments Montuori.

One countermeasure to the recession has been a move “upstream” by positioning
rewards-driven programs to more affluent, more creditworthy customers who promise
returns in the form of increased transactions per card and increased usage at points of
sale where cash and checks still hold sway. Based on such efforts, Packaged Facts
forecasts the percentage of rewards-based credit cards will grow incrementally from
76% of all general-purpose credit cards in 2009 to 77% in 2010 before reaching 82% in
2013.

Though affluent consumers are perhaps the most obvious targets of the post-recession
credit card industry, younger consumers who have jobs are also attractive prospects.
Millennials are currently avid debit card users, but as they enter what historically are
peak credit-using years it’s unknown whether they will migrate to credit cards. As a
result, some credit card players are introducing products that provide a needed link to
younger debit-driven consumers and position their charge cards as debit alternatives.
For instance, American Express recently introduced the ZYNC Card, which functions as
a pay-in-full charge card that allows cardholders to select bundles of rewards and
benefits called “Packs” that are tailored to specific lifestyle interests and spending habits
in categories such as music, fashion, food, travel and more.

Rewards Cards in the U.S., 3rd Edition examines the rewards-based credit card
industry in the U.S. The report presents the size and growth of the market and several
related key metrics within the broader credit card arena, as well as trends and factors
affecting the industry. In addition, major key competitors are profiled, along with a
focused analysis of consumer demographics and preferences of co-branded credit
cards. The scope of the report is limited to consumer-based general-purpose credit
cards that have a rewards feature. However, debit card rewards, private label rewards,
and business rewards are also discussed within the context of the report

About Packaged Facts - Packaged Facts, a division of MarketResearch.com,
publishes market intelligence on a wide range of consumer market topics, including
consumer goods and retailing, foods and beverages, demographics, pet products and
services, and financial products. Packaged Facts also offers a full range of custom
research services.
Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Executive Summary
     Scope and Methodology
     Report Scope
     Report Methodology
     Macroeconomic Influence on the Credit Card Industry
     Consumer confidence helps put brakes on spending
     Unemployment picture stabilizes
     Housing and equities still down
     Consumer Credit Trends
     Chipping away at the debt burden
     But higher charge-off rates play a role
     The banks’ side of the argument: card lending policies tighten
     Unused credit lines pulled
     Eleven consecutive quarters of credit card tightening
     The result: Fewer prospects.
     Credit card interest rates increase while banks’ borrowing costs decrease
     Consumer Payment Trends: An Overview
     Rewards cards in the wallets of more than 75% of credit card users
     Cash still the most widely used payment instrument for retail payments


Regulatory Analysis
     The CARD Act: Implementation and Response
     Regulation E
     Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act
     Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection
     The Durbin Amendment


Rewards Card Market Size and Forecast
     Rewards Cards to Continue to Build Credit Card Share
     Account attrition rampant; rewards no exception
     Moving upstream, rewards in tow
     A question of degree
     And a question of fitting into broader strategy
     Rewards card share to grow incrementally through 2013


Rewards Trends, Innovations & Strategies
     A Tale of Two Groups: the Affluent and the Young
     Why target the affluent? Simple: big card spend; high FICOs
     MasterCard rolls out the red carpet
     American Express Spins Gold
     Chase asks customers to try Sapphire
     What about younger consumers?
Debit stalks credit
      Trends in Rewards Types
      Practicality of cash rewards drives increased consumer interest
      JPM Chase Brings Back 5% Cash Back—with caveats
      Private Label Cards: Retailers Taking a Second Look?
      Co-branding trend runs strong
      Small-Business Rewards
      Credit cards a fraction of small-business B2B transactions
      Debit Rewards
      Debit Rewards Gaining Traction
      Cash back debit cards on the rise

Rewards Profiles
     Bank of America
     Reward Cards Offerings
     2010 Card Strategy
     Wells Fargo & Company
     Rewards Cards
     Capital One Financial
     Entrance into Reward Cards & Offerings
     Discover Financial Services
     Network and Card Initiatives
     Rewards Cards
     Rewards Snapshots: MasterCard and Visa
     Co-branding and Premier Rewards
     Relationship Rewards Construct
     Card counts drop precipitously
     Visa
     Visa’s Three-tiered Consumer Credit Platform

Consumer Credit Card Usage Trends
     Credit card use dips
     MasterCard credit card use drops the most and American Express the least
     American Express cardholders report highest level of engagement
     But cardholder engagement also drops over time
     Among full-time employed, credit card use is stable
     But engagement differentiates “Big “Four”
     And engagement trends suggest credit card pullback
     Swimming upstream: assessing higher-HH-income brackets
     MasterCard engagement highest among $150K+ HH income consumers
     Discover card engagement falls ten percentage points during 2007-2010
     American Express Blue at 12.4 million mark
     Discover card accounts at about 31 million
     MasterCard Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement
     Visa Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement
     Co-Brand Usage Trends, Big Four
Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Influences, Regulations and the Rewards Card Market
     Consumer confidence helps put brakes on spending
     Current perceptions of business conditions, job prospects darken
     Expectations Index dips as job prospect optimism dims
     Unemployment picture stabilizes
     Figure 2-1: Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence, 2007-2010
     Unemployment picture affects some more than others
     Unemployment rate among less educated jumps five percentage points
     Credit worthiness suffers
     Young adults in a bind
     Table 2-1: Unemployment Rate, Selected Demographics, 2007-2010 (%)
     Black and Hispanic consumers also more likely to be affected
     How can increasing personal savings and reducing the debt burden be bad?
     Unemployment and GPD forecast
     Slow employment rebound to coincide with a slow rebound in consumer
     spending
     Table 2-2: Unemployment and GDP Forecast, 2010-2012
     Stock & housing declines deflate household wealth; rebound to record 2006
     levels a long way off
     Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 sees uptick in household wealth, but still $10 trillion off 2006
     high
     Table 2-3: Household Net Worth, 2005-2010 (in trillions of $)
     Case-Shiller and FOMC housing pessimism
     Table 2-4: Household owners' equity in real estate as a percentage of
     households owner-occupied real estate, 2003-2010 (%)
     Q2 2010 summary equities analysis
     Figure 2-2: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case Shiller Index, 2007-2010


Regulatory Analysis
     The CARD Act: Implementation and Response
     Card Act - Stage I - August 2009
     Card Act - Stage II - February 2010
     Card Act - Stage III - August 2010
     Ramifications of the CARD Act
     Cost to banks in the billions
     Making up the difference
     Regulation E
     Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act
     Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection
     The Durbin Amendment
     Fees
     Reasonable and proportional


Market Size & Growth
     Rewards Cards to Continue to Build Credit Card Share
Account attrition rampant; rewards no exception
      Moving upstream, rewards in tow
      A question of degree
      And a question of fitting into broader strategy
      Rewards card share to grow incrementally through 2013
      Table 2-5: Rewards Cards, Percentage Share of Credit Cards, 2005-2013
      The Backdrop: Credit Card Market Size
      Table 2-6: Credit Card Accounts, Big Four, 2005-2009
      Table 2-7: Credit Cards in Force, Big Four, 2005-2009
      Table 2-8: Credit Card Payments Volume, Big Four, 2005-2009


Chapter 3: Consumer Credit Trends
     Chipping away at the debt burden
     Consumer credit and home mortgage debt rates on the decline
     Figure 3-1: Consumer Debt Burden, 2000-2010
     Debt service ratios peak at onset of 2008 and decline thereafter
     Figure 3-2: Savings Rate & Debt Service Ratio & Financial Obligations Ratio,
     2007-2010
     Revolving credit trends in focus
     Figure 3-3: Consumer Revolving and Non-Revolving Debt Trends, 2004-2010
     But higher charge-off rates play a role
     Figure 3-4: Credit Card Charge-off Rates, Top 100 Banks, 2005-2010
     The banks’ side of the argument: card lending policies tighten
     Unused credit lines pulled
     Eleven consecutive quarters of credit card tightening
     The result: Fewer prospects
     Figure 3-5: Credit Card Loan Tightening, Top 100 Banks, 2007-2010
     Credit card interest rates increase while banks’ borrowing costs decrease
     Federal funds target rate at historical lows
     Profit margins breathe easier
     Figure 3-6: Consumer Auto, Personal and Credit Card Loan Interest Rates,
     2004-2010
     Card Portfolios Reflect Consumer & Issuer Behavior
     American Express charge-off trends reflect a more affluent, creditworthy
     consumer
     Figure 3-7: Charge-Off Rates, Big Six, Q1 2009-Q1 2010
     Bank America credit card delinquency rates twice as high as AMEX rates
     Figure 3-8: Delinquency Rates, Big Six, Q1 2009-Q1 2010
     Big Six Issuers: Loan Balances and Purchase Volume, Q1 2009-Q1 2010
     Figure 3-9: Card Loan Balances, Big Six, Q1 2009-Q1 2010
     Figure 3-10: Purchase Volume, Big Six, Q1 2009-Q1 2010


Chapter 4: Consumer Payment Trends: An Overview
     Stronger Debit Growth Virtually Assured
     But that is not necessarily bad
Figure 4-1: Credit, Debit, Cash and Check Usage Trends, by Point of Sale, 2007-
      2009
      A Disenfranchised Lot
      Figure 4-2: Reported Changes to Card Terms & Conditions, 2009
      A crisis in confidence
      Followed by direct action
      Card transactions 53% of all payment transactions
      Debit overtakes credit
      Rewards cards in the wallets of more than 75% of credit card users
      Table 4-1: Current Adoption of Payment Instruments, By Instrument Features,
      2008
      Table 4-2: Number of Adopted Bank Accounts and Payment Cards, 2008
      Cash still the most widely used payment instrument for retail payments
      Table 4-3: Use of Payment Instruments in a Typical Month, by Type of
      Instrument, 2008
      Share of cash and checks as a percentage of transactions to continue to drop
      Table 4-4: Actual and Expected Changes in Use of Payment Instruments, By
      Period of Change, 2008 (%)
      Credit cards still the domain of larger-ticket purchases
      Credit cards have an edge in gas and automotive expenses
      Figure 4-3: Comparison of Credit and Debit Card Usage, by Type of Purchase,
      2009
      I’ll switch, I’ll switch!
      For a lower rate—or better rewards
      Figure 4-4: Card-Switching Rationales, 2009
      Cash back, please
      Figure 4-5 Reward Type Preferences, 2009
      Credit card users who pay bills with their cards versus those who do not
      First Data: rewards memberships: credit cards decline; debit cards increase

Chapter 5: Rewards Trends, Innovations & Strategies
     Credit cardholders spending less, weighing rewards
     Rewards still incent switching


A Tale of Two Groups: the Affluent and the Young
      Why target the affluent? Simple: big card spend; high FICOs
      Rewards in the acquisitions spotlight
      Rewards and FICO
      Tale of the tape
      Visa rolls out the red carpet
      American Express Spins Gold
      Chase asks customers to try Sapphire
      What about younger consumers?
      Debit stalks credit
      ZYNC—none too soon
      A bevy of packs; a bevy of choice
Trends in Rewards Types
     Practicality of cash rewards drives increased consumer interest
     JPM Chase Brings Back 5% Cash Back
     Caveats
     Travel rewards not dead
     Chase launches Continental Airlines OnePass Plus Card
     Benefits added to Continental Airlines Presidential Plus Card
     Cap One Introduces 'Simplified' Venture Travel Rewards Card
     Travelocity Rewards American Express Card
     Airline Rewards worth a Fight


Co-brand Rewards Card Trends
      A question of scale, return on investment, and loyalty generation
      Not the end of co-brand, but the rationalization of co-brand
      Rationalization to benefit American Express
      American Express on the Move
      American Express Partners with Travelocity for Travel Rewards Card
      American Express Replaces Visa on Co-branded Macy's Cards
      Chase and Starbucks Pull Plug on Duetto
      Citigroup drops Home Depot and has challenges with Zales
      Best Western International refreshes cobranded rewards card

Private Label Cards: Retailers Taking a Second Look?
      Co-branding trend runs strong
      Until Now: Target’s Flip-Flip Sends Industry a Message
      Test measured effect of rewards
      U.S. Bancorp Buys Kroger Card Portfolio
      Getting Merchants to Shoulder More of the Rewards Bill
      First Data is doing it
      Barclays is doing it


Small-Business Rewards
      Credit cards a fraction of small-business B2B transactions
      OPEN for competition
      Small business co-branding with Lowe’s
      But Competition Looms
      JPMorgan Chase salivates over small business market
      JP Morgan Chase Ink

Debit Rewards
      Debit Rewards Gaining Traction
      Debit Rewards—for a Fee
      Chase Unveils Disney Rewards Visa Debit Card with $25 Annual Fee
Joining a growing list of fee-based debit rewards cards
     But “free” is an option, too
     KeyBank offers free MasterCard contactless rewards debit card
     Cash back debit cards on the rise
     Cash back to incent debit trial
     Keep the Change!
     Way2Save!
     A regional twist: Commuter Cash


Chapter 6: American Express: Rewards Anatomy and Strategy………
     Value Proposition
     Table 6-1: 2008 Worldwide Cardholder Spend, American Express, Visa, &
     MasterCard
     Company overview
     Summary Introduction: Network and Card Initiatives
     Rewards Cards and Loyalty Programs Are the Name of the Game
     Response to Recession
     Response to Credit CARD Act
     Prospects
     American Express well-situated to take advantage of frugality trend
     Threats to Growth
     Reduction in discount revenue a foreboding possibility
     More partnership agreements & greater card acceptance needed
     What Differentiates American Express Now Makes It More of a Target
     No debit card?
     Regulatory change
     American Express Customer Patterns
     Shift to discretionary spend
     Shift toward everyday spending continues
     Charge Cards: Reemergence of a Mainstay Product
     Two Sides of the Demographic Coin: Premier Rewards Gold and ZYNC Card
     Table 6-2: Charge Card as Debit Card: Benefits of Charge
     Don't Take Chances, Take Charge
     Revolving Credit Cards
     In-House Proprietary Cards Perform—But Are They Being Left Behind?
     Significant share of billings, but scaling back
     Co-brand Cards: The Fight Is On
     U.S. Card Services: Co-Branded Cards Grow Sales
     Co-brand Contract Developments
     Co-brand Partnerships with Financial Services Institutions
     Airline strength also vulnerability
     Membership Rewards Program Underpins Charge, Proprietary and Co-Brand
     Cards
     Rewards: An Increasingly Expensive Proposition
     A double-sided dilemma
     Expenses already beginning to mount
American Express: Relationship of Discount Rate to Merchants, Issuers, and
      Acquirers
      How it works
      Leveraging its closed-loop network
      Whew: No Interchange Fee
      Sales and Card Growth
      Worldwide assessment
      Table 6-3: American Express Card Billed Business, Discount Revenue, Net Card
      Fees, 2007-Q2 2010 (in billions of $)
      Table 6-4: American Express Discount Rate, Card Spend, & Fee per Card, 2005-
      Q2 2010
      Cardmember rewards expenses
      Table 6-5: American Express Rewards Expense and Liabilities, 2007-Q2 2010
      Table 6-6: American Express, Credit Quality Metrics, 2006-2009 (in billions of $)
      U.S. growth trends
      Table 6-7: American Express U.S. Region Billed Business & Cards in Force,
      2005-2009
      U.S. Card Services
      Table 6-8: American Express, Quarterly Summary, Q2 2009-Q2 2010
      Table 6-9: American Express, U.S. Card Services Segment, Selected Sales
      Metrics, 2006-2009 (in billions of $)
      Table 6-10: American Express, U.S. Card Services Segment, Card Billed
      Business, 2005-2009
      Table 6-11: American Express, U.S. Card Services, Q2009-Q2 2010
      Table 6-12: American Express, Global Network Services Segment, Billed
      Business & Cards in Force, 2007-Q2 2010
      Q1 2010
      Q2 2010
      Q2 2010 rewards-related expenses skyrocket


Chapter 7: JP Morgan Chase: Rewards Anatomy & Strategy…
     Value Proposition
     Card Services: Summary Overview
     Response to Recession
     Identifying loss rate correlations
     Figure 7-1: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Average Net Charge-off Unit Rate
     by External Card Debt, 2008-2009
     Then act accordingly
     Table 7-1: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Credit Line Decreases & Account
     Closures, by Cardholder Debt-to-Income Rate, 2008-2009
     And moving forward, narrow the prospect pool
     Table 7-2: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Credit Line Decreases & Account
     Closures, by Cardholder Debt-to-Income Rate, 2008-2009
     Adjust intro rates, promo rates, and contract rates
     Table 7-3: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Interest Rate Offerings Change,
     2008-2009
A more sophisticated risk management strategy
      Response to CARD Act
      Prospects
      Credit card outstandings on track to shrink 15% in 2010
      Threats to Growth
      Reduction in interchange revenue
      Regulatory change
      JPMorgan Chase Card Service Customer Patterns
      Sales among affluent customers strengthen most
      Bigger wallets; increased rate of spend
      Consumer confidence and sales volume not a coincidence?
      Shift to discretionary spend
      A more creditworthy cardholder base
      Figure 7-2: FICO Spreads, “Big Six” Issuers, Trust Receivables, 2009
      Card Strategy: Build Brand, Rewards & Customer Relationship
      2008 - 2009 - 2010
      Card and Rewards Initiatives
      Ultimate Rewards, Blueprint, Sapphire, and Ink frame strategy
      “Rewards-engaged” customers outperform across all key metrics
      Table 7-4: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Rewards-Engaged Metrics, 2009
      Figure 7-3: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Rewards Share of Outstandings,
      2004-2009
      Co-brand: Keep stronger hands and eliminate weaker ones
      Table 7-5: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Co-brand and Affiliation
      Rationalization, 2008-2009
      Leveraging branch presence & co-brand relationships in affluent markets
      JPMorgan Chase Card Services by the Numbers
      Card metrics
      All Chase
      Chase not Washington Mutual
      Washington Mutual
      Loan loss allowance increases
      Down, down, down: cards, transactions and volume
      Table 7-6: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Financial and Business Metrics,
      2007-2009
      Table 7-7: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Selected Balance Sheet Data, 2007-
      2009
      Lions and tigers and Washington Mutual, oh, my!
      Table 7-8: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Washington Mutual Key Stats, 2007-
      2009


Chapter 8: Card Issuer and Association Analysis
     Bank of America
     Company Overview
     Credit Card Division (Global Cards Services)
     Reward Cards Offerings
Financial Objectives to Card Issuance
Financial Results and Root Cause
Something Needs to Be Done
Future of BAC’s Reward Card Programs
Card Act Response
Card Act and Rewards
2010 Card Strategy
Affinity program
Bank of America: Key Metrics
Table 8-1: Bank of America, Credit Card—Domestic, Key Metrics, 2007-2009
Wells Fargo & Company
Company overview
Network and Card Initiatives
Rewards Cards
Response to Credit CARD Act
Response to Recession
Prospects
Wells Fargo: Key Metrics
Table 8-2: Wells Fargo, Key Credit Card Metrics, 2007-2009
Capital One Financial
Company Overview
History and development
Entrance into Reward Cards & Offerings
From monoline to bank
The Great Recession’s impact on Capital One
Future of Capital One’s Reward Card Programs
Simplicity and transparency
Card Act Response
Card Act and Rewards
Capital One: Key Metrics
Table 8-3: Capital One, Key Credit Card Metrics, 2007-2009
Discover Financial Services
Company overview
Network and Card Initiatives
Rewards Cards
Table 8-4: Discover, % Cashback Bonus per Dollars Spent, 2007-2009
Response to Credit CARD Act
Response to Recession
Prospects
Table 8-5: Discover, Key Credit Card Metrics, 2007-2009
MasterCard..
Overview
Co-branding and Premier Rewards
Relationship Rewards Construct
MasterCard Marketplace open for business
MasterCard by the Numbers
Card counts drop precipitously
      2008 declines intensify in 2009
      Table 8-6: MasterCard U.S. Credit Card Metrics, 2005-2009
      Visa
      Visa’s Three-tiered Consumer Credit Platform
      Visa by the Numbers
      Table 8-7: Visa U.S. Credit Card Metrics, 2005-2009


Chapter 9: Consumer Credit Card Usage Trends
     A Preface to Survey Analysis: Debit Users, Transactors, and Revolvers
     Credit card use dips
     Some 3.1 fewer million consumers using credit cards in 2010 versus 2007
     MasterCard credit card use drops the most and American Express the least
     Table 9-1: Credit Card Usage, by Credit Card Types, 2006-2010
     Engaged cardholders are the prize
     American Express cardholders report highest level of engagement
     But cardholder engagement also drops over time
     Table 9-2: Credit Card Use & Engagement Ratio, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010
     Full-time employed provide the take of the tape
     Among full-time employed, credit card use is stable
     But engagement differentiates “Big “Four”
     And engagement trends suggest credit card pullback
     Table 9-3: Credit Card Use & Engagement Ratio, Employed Cardholders, by Big
     Four Issuers, 2006-2010
     Swimming upstream: assessing higher-HH-income brackets
     MasterCard engagement highest among $150K+ HH income consumers
     Table 9-4: Credit Card Use & Engagement Ratio, $75K-$99K HH Income, by Big
     Four Issuers, 2006-2010
     Discover card engagement falls ten percentage points during 2007-2010
     Table 9-5: Credit Card Use & Engagement Ratio, $100K-$149K HH Income, by
     Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010
     American Express holds court over engaged, affluent cardholders
     Table 9-6: Credit Card Use & Engagement Ratio, $150K+ HH Income, by Big
     Four Issuers, 2006-2010
     American Express Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement
     Account growth during 2007-2010
     American Express Blue at 12.4 million mark
     Table 9-7: Credit Card Use & Engagement, American Express Consumer Card
     Products, 2006-2010
     Discover Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement
     Table 9-8: Credit Card Use & Engagement, Discover, 2006-2010
     MasterCard Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement
     Table 9-9: Credit Card Use & Engagement, MasterCard Consumer Card
     Products, 2006-2010
     Visa Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement
Table 9-10: Credit Card Use & Engagement, Visa Consumer Card Products,
       2006-2010
       Co-Brand Usage Trends, Big Four
       Table 9-11: Airline/Hotel & Organization Co-Branded Credit Cards, by Big Four
       Issuers, 2006-2010
       Table 9-12: Airline/Hotel & Organization Co-Branded Credit Cards, $100K-$149K
       HH Income, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010
       Table 9-13: Airline/Hotel & Organization Co-Branded Credit Cards, $150K+ HH
       Income, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010



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Rewards Cards in the U.S., 3rd Edition

  • 1. Get more info on this report! Rewards Cards in the U.S., 3rd Edition September 1, 2010 2010 brings a perfect storm to the credit card industry, driven by recession-induced changes that are reshaping its core. At the same time, card rewards have become ubiquitous. In the face of some of the most significant changes the credit card industry has ever faced, some argue that rewards programs are simply no longer feasible in an era of constrained revenue and profits. However, as detailed in Packaged Facts’ Rewards Cards in the U.S., it is not a matter of eliminating reward programs, but rather about adapting them to some of the most significant changes the credit card industry has ever faced. In its most consultative report in the series, this 3rd edition of Rewards Cards in the U.S. helps position industry participants to navigate this reengineering in card rewards by assessing the following industry trends and challenges: How does continued migration to electronic payments shape the future of rewards? Which regulatory changes are most relevant to rewards? Understanding the macroeconomic and credit factors that shape the pool of current and future credit card customers. How large is this pool of customers? Does the current credit environment effect migration from credit to debit? Why? How? Which fee structures are being implemented—or could be implemented—to counteract regulatory change? How are card issuers’ credit card portfolios adapting to change? How can they share in tapping a smaller pool of cardholders while growing profits? What will happen to affluent, credit worthy cardholders? Less credit worthy cardholders? How do rewards play a role? Can rewards help grow transactions and help extend card reach beyond a shrinking consumer base? How does closed-loop versus open-loop competition and significant industry consolidation affect competition? What is the fate of co-brand rewards? Which reward types best fit the needs of specific consumers?
  • 2. Over the course of the recession, which consumers are active card users? Multiple card users? Transactors? Revolvers? How has this changed over time? In addition to (or as part of) addressing these issues, this report trends consumer use of credit cards, analyzing usage patterns from 2007 to 2010, identifying specific consumer groups according to active card usage, cards in wallet, and classification as transactors or revolvers. In doing so, Packaged Facts assesses some factors most integral to credit worthiness, including net worth, home value, and HH income. Rewards Cards in the U.S., 3rd Edition also contains: In-depth competitive profiles of the associations and major issuers written by industry experts Selected strategic card players assessments Comprehensive, holistic assessment of macroeconomic and credit trends Complete market size and forecast For a full assessment on how regulatory changes is reshaping consumer banking—and reshaping consumer relationships, preferences, and attitudes about banking—please see Packaged Facts’ upcoming Regulatory Change: Consumer Banking and the New Consumer Relationship. Additional Information Market Insights: A Selection From The Report Consumer Credit Trends As reflected in the Macroeconomic Influences, Regulations and the Rewards Card Market chapter, consumers have a decidedly pessimistic economic outlook, as they struggle under the burden of higher unemployment and lower household wealth. But along with that burden, they must also contend with an unfortunate—and related— chicken-and-egg phenomenon: their own reluctance to use credit and an unforgiving credit environment. In this chapter, Packaged Facts assesses the direction of consumer credit and debt trends and their relationship to the credit card industry. As part of doing so, the chapter concludes with trended assessment of the “Big Six” credit card portfolios (Bank America, JPMorgan Chase, Capital One Financial, American Express, Citigroup, and Discover Financial Services). Debit Rewards
  • 3. According to Packaged Facts’ Co-Brand and Affinity Credit Cards: The U.S. and Global Markets and Opportunities, 3rd Edition (November 2009), debit cards continue to increase in popularity, and while their growth rate has slowed, it has outstripped that of credit cards. Many of the same conveniences of credit cards can be found in debit cards. For example, as with credit cards, debit cards relieve consumers of the task of having to withdraw cash from the bank. Debit cards also offer an added cash-related advantage in that most larger merchants allow debit card users to withdraw cash from their registers in limited amounts. In addition, debit cards are just as quick as credit cards, permitting consumers to make purchases with a swipe and a signature or punched-in PIN. Importantly for consumers struggling with debt and bad credit, it’s also much easier to obtain a debit card than a credit card. For many consumers, debit cards are also budgeting tools. Since debit cards draw on funds that account holders already have, undisciplined... Card metrics JPMorgan Chase analyzes its credit card portfolio on a managed basis, which includes credit card receivables on the Consolidated Balance Sheets and those receivables sold to investors through securitizations. Below, Packaged Facts breaks out card receivables and delinquency rates in three ways: for Card Services, for Card Services minus the Washington Mutual portfolio, and for the Washington Mutual portfolio. In aggregate, JPMorgan Chase attributed these increases to the current weak economic environment, especially in metropolitan statistical areas (“MSAs”) experiencing the greatest housing price depreciation and highest unemployment and to the credit performance of loans acquired in the Washington Mutual transaction. In The News Reward Programs Remain Integral to Success of a U.S. Credit Card Market in Flux New York, August 16, 2010 — While the credit card industry has suffered from significant account attrition and in some cases decreased spend per card since the recession, rewards programs continue to be integral to the market’s success, according to Rewards Cards in the U.S., 3rd Edition by market research publisher Packaged Facts. Rewards remain a cornerstone of American Express and Discover, while among some of the biggest card issuers in the country, Visa- and MasterCard-branded rewards programs are either being refreshed or are being brought to market for the first time. “The recession has brought tremendous upheaval to the industry, which has worked aggressively to counteract the financial consequences of the Credit CARD Act and the close of an era where loose credit was the norm,” says Don Montuori, publisher of Packaged Facts. “We don’t believe the trend toward significant account attrition has played itself out yet. But we ultimately predict that though the number of credit cards in force will continue to decline into 2011, rewards will selectively play a more important role than ever before.”
  • 4. The degree to which cardholders are rewarded is an important issue facing the industry. The answer will be driven more and more precisely and selectively by the return that cardholders generate for card players based on how much cardholders spend, where they use their cards, and whether they are willing to pay for better rewards. It’s a quandary that is already being addressed by the marketplace, but will also continue to shape the industry in the future as reward programs become less egalitarian with larger returns in percentage terms dictated by cardholder behavior. The “losers” in the rewards game will be lower spending and higher risk cardholders, whom the market has already deemed marginal returns on investment, comments Montuori. One countermeasure to the recession has been a move “upstream” by positioning rewards-driven programs to more affluent, more creditworthy customers who promise returns in the form of increased transactions per card and increased usage at points of sale where cash and checks still hold sway. Based on such efforts, Packaged Facts forecasts the percentage of rewards-based credit cards will grow incrementally from 76% of all general-purpose credit cards in 2009 to 77% in 2010 before reaching 82% in 2013. Though affluent consumers are perhaps the most obvious targets of the post-recession credit card industry, younger consumers who have jobs are also attractive prospects. Millennials are currently avid debit card users, but as they enter what historically are peak credit-using years it’s unknown whether they will migrate to credit cards. As a result, some credit card players are introducing products that provide a needed link to younger debit-driven consumers and position their charge cards as debit alternatives. For instance, American Express recently introduced the ZYNC Card, which functions as a pay-in-full charge card that allows cardholders to select bundles of rewards and benefits called “Packs” that are tailored to specific lifestyle interests and spending habits in categories such as music, fashion, food, travel and more. Rewards Cards in the U.S., 3rd Edition examines the rewards-based credit card industry in the U.S. The report presents the size and growth of the market and several related key metrics within the broader credit card arena, as well as trends and factors affecting the industry. In addition, major key competitors are profiled, along with a focused analysis of consumer demographics and preferences of co-branded credit cards. The scope of the report is limited to consumer-based general-purpose credit cards that have a rewards feature. However, debit card rewards, private label rewards, and business rewards are also discussed within the context of the report About Packaged Facts - Packaged Facts, a division of MarketResearch.com, publishes market intelligence on a wide range of consumer market topics, including consumer goods and retailing, foods and beverages, demographics, pet products and services, and financial products. Packaged Facts also offers a full range of custom research services.
  • 5. Table of Contents Chapter 1: Executive Summary Scope and Methodology Report Scope Report Methodology Macroeconomic Influence on the Credit Card Industry Consumer confidence helps put brakes on spending Unemployment picture stabilizes Housing and equities still down Consumer Credit Trends Chipping away at the debt burden But higher charge-off rates play a role The banks’ side of the argument: card lending policies tighten Unused credit lines pulled Eleven consecutive quarters of credit card tightening The result: Fewer prospects. Credit card interest rates increase while banks’ borrowing costs decrease Consumer Payment Trends: An Overview Rewards cards in the wallets of more than 75% of credit card users Cash still the most widely used payment instrument for retail payments Regulatory Analysis The CARD Act: Implementation and Response Regulation E Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection The Durbin Amendment Rewards Card Market Size and Forecast Rewards Cards to Continue to Build Credit Card Share Account attrition rampant; rewards no exception Moving upstream, rewards in tow A question of degree And a question of fitting into broader strategy Rewards card share to grow incrementally through 2013 Rewards Trends, Innovations & Strategies A Tale of Two Groups: the Affluent and the Young Why target the affluent? Simple: big card spend; high FICOs MasterCard rolls out the red carpet American Express Spins Gold Chase asks customers to try Sapphire What about younger consumers?
  • 6. Debit stalks credit Trends in Rewards Types Practicality of cash rewards drives increased consumer interest JPM Chase Brings Back 5% Cash Back—with caveats Private Label Cards: Retailers Taking a Second Look? Co-branding trend runs strong Small-Business Rewards Credit cards a fraction of small-business B2B transactions Debit Rewards Debit Rewards Gaining Traction Cash back debit cards on the rise Rewards Profiles Bank of America Reward Cards Offerings 2010 Card Strategy Wells Fargo & Company Rewards Cards Capital One Financial Entrance into Reward Cards & Offerings Discover Financial Services Network and Card Initiatives Rewards Cards Rewards Snapshots: MasterCard and Visa Co-branding and Premier Rewards Relationship Rewards Construct Card counts drop precipitously Visa Visa’s Three-tiered Consumer Credit Platform Consumer Credit Card Usage Trends Credit card use dips MasterCard credit card use drops the most and American Express the least American Express cardholders report highest level of engagement But cardholder engagement also drops over time Among full-time employed, credit card use is stable But engagement differentiates “Big “Four” And engagement trends suggest credit card pullback Swimming upstream: assessing higher-HH-income brackets MasterCard engagement highest among $150K+ HH income consumers Discover card engagement falls ten percentage points during 2007-2010 American Express Blue at 12.4 million mark Discover card accounts at about 31 million MasterCard Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement Visa Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement Co-Brand Usage Trends, Big Four
  • 7. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Influences, Regulations and the Rewards Card Market Consumer confidence helps put brakes on spending Current perceptions of business conditions, job prospects darken Expectations Index dips as job prospect optimism dims Unemployment picture stabilizes Figure 2-1: Unemployment Rate and Consumer Confidence, 2007-2010 Unemployment picture affects some more than others Unemployment rate among less educated jumps five percentage points Credit worthiness suffers Young adults in a bind Table 2-1: Unemployment Rate, Selected Demographics, 2007-2010 (%) Black and Hispanic consumers also more likely to be affected How can increasing personal savings and reducing the debt burden be bad? Unemployment and GPD forecast Slow employment rebound to coincide with a slow rebound in consumer spending Table 2-2: Unemployment and GDP Forecast, 2010-2012 Stock & housing declines deflate household wealth; rebound to record 2006 levels a long way off Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 sees uptick in household wealth, but still $10 trillion off 2006 high Table 2-3: Household Net Worth, 2005-2010 (in trillions of $) Case-Shiller and FOMC housing pessimism Table 2-4: Household owners' equity in real estate as a percentage of households owner-occupied real estate, 2003-2010 (%) Q2 2010 summary equities analysis Figure 2-2: Wealth Effect: Wilshire 5000 and Case Shiller Index, 2007-2010 Regulatory Analysis The CARD Act: Implementation and Response Card Act - Stage I - August 2009 Card Act - Stage II - February 2010 Card Act - Stage III - August 2010 Ramifications of the CARD Act Cost to banks in the billions Making up the difference Regulation E Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection The Durbin Amendment Fees Reasonable and proportional Market Size & Growth Rewards Cards to Continue to Build Credit Card Share
  • 8. Account attrition rampant; rewards no exception Moving upstream, rewards in tow A question of degree And a question of fitting into broader strategy Rewards card share to grow incrementally through 2013 Table 2-5: Rewards Cards, Percentage Share of Credit Cards, 2005-2013 The Backdrop: Credit Card Market Size Table 2-6: Credit Card Accounts, Big Four, 2005-2009 Table 2-7: Credit Cards in Force, Big Four, 2005-2009 Table 2-8: Credit Card Payments Volume, Big Four, 2005-2009 Chapter 3: Consumer Credit Trends Chipping away at the debt burden Consumer credit and home mortgage debt rates on the decline Figure 3-1: Consumer Debt Burden, 2000-2010 Debt service ratios peak at onset of 2008 and decline thereafter Figure 3-2: Savings Rate & Debt Service Ratio & Financial Obligations Ratio, 2007-2010 Revolving credit trends in focus Figure 3-3: Consumer Revolving and Non-Revolving Debt Trends, 2004-2010 But higher charge-off rates play a role Figure 3-4: Credit Card Charge-off Rates, Top 100 Banks, 2005-2010 The banks’ side of the argument: card lending policies tighten Unused credit lines pulled Eleven consecutive quarters of credit card tightening The result: Fewer prospects Figure 3-5: Credit Card Loan Tightening, Top 100 Banks, 2007-2010 Credit card interest rates increase while banks’ borrowing costs decrease Federal funds target rate at historical lows Profit margins breathe easier Figure 3-6: Consumer Auto, Personal and Credit Card Loan Interest Rates, 2004-2010 Card Portfolios Reflect Consumer & Issuer Behavior American Express charge-off trends reflect a more affluent, creditworthy consumer Figure 3-7: Charge-Off Rates, Big Six, Q1 2009-Q1 2010 Bank America credit card delinquency rates twice as high as AMEX rates Figure 3-8: Delinquency Rates, Big Six, Q1 2009-Q1 2010 Big Six Issuers: Loan Balances and Purchase Volume, Q1 2009-Q1 2010 Figure 3-9: Card Loan Balances, Big Six, Q1 2009-Q1 2010 Figure 3-10: Purchase Volume, Big Six, Q1 2009-Q1 2010 Chapter 4: Consumer Payment Trends: An Overview Stronger Debit Growth Virtually Assured But that is not necessarily bad
  • 9. Figure 4-1: Credit, Debit, Cash and Check Usage Trends, by Point of Sale, 2007- 2009 A Disenfranchised Lot Figure 4-2: Reported Changes to Card Terms & Conditions, 2009 A crisis in confidence Followed by direct action Card transactions 53% of all payment transactions Debit overtakes credit Rewards cards in the wallets of more than 75% of credit card users Table 4-1: Current Adoption of Payment Instruments, By Instrument Features, 2008 Table 4-2: Number of Adopted Bank Accounts and Payment Cards, 2008 Cash still the most widely used payment instrument for retail payments Table 4-3: Use of Payment Instruments in a Typical Month, by Type of Instrument, 2008 Share of cash and checks as a percentage of transactions to continue to drop Table 4-4: Actual and Expected Changes in Use of Payment Instruments, By Period of Change, 2008 (%) Credit cards still the domain of larger-ticket purchases Credit cards have an edge in gas and automotive expenses Figure 4-3: Comparison of Credit and Debit Card Usage, by Type of Purchase, 2009 I’ll switch, I’ll switch! For a lower rate—or better rewards Figure 4-4: Card-Switching Rationales, 2009 Cash back, please Figure 4-5 Reward Type Preferences, 2009 Credit card users who pay bills with their cards versus those who do not First Data: rewards memberships: credit cards decline; debit cards increase Chapter 5: Rewards Trends, Innovations & Strategies Credit cardholders spending less, weighing rewards Rewards still incent switching A Tale of Two Groups: the Affluent and the Young Why target the affluent? Simple: big card spend; high FICOs Rewards in the acquisitions spotlight Rewards and FICO Tale of the tape Visa rolls out the red carpet American Express Spins Gold Chase asks customers to try Sapphire What about younger consumers? Debit stalks credit ZYNC—none too soon A bevy of packs; a bevy of choice
  • 10. Trends in Rewards Types Practicality of cash rewards drives increased consumer interest JPM Chase Brings Back 5% Cash Back Caveats Travel rewards not dead Chase launches Continental Airlines OnePass Plus Card Benefits added to Continental Airlines Presidential Plus Card Cap One Introduces 'Simplified' Venture Travel Rewards Card Travelocity Rewards American Express Card Airline Rewards worth a Fight Co-brand Rewards Card Trends A question of scale, return on investment, and loyalty generation Not the end of co-brand, but the rationalization of co-brand Rationalization to benefit American Express American Express on the Move American Express Partners with Travelocity for Travel Rewards Card American Express Replaces Visa on Co-branded Macy's Cards Chase and Starbucks Pull Plug on Duetto Citigroup drops Home Depot and has challenges with Zales Best Western International refreshes cobranded rewards card Private Label Cards: Retailers Taking a Second Look? Co-branding trend runs strong Until Now: Target’s Flip-Flip Sends Industry a Message Test measured effect of rewards U.S. Bancorp Buys Kroger Card Portfolio Getting Merchants to Shoulder More of the Rewards Bill First Data is doing it Barclays is doing it Small-Business Rewards Credit cards a fraction of small-business B2B transactions OPEN for competition Small business co-branding with Lowe’s But Competition Looms JPMorgan Chase salivates over small business market JP Morgan Chase Ink Debit Rewards Debit Rewards Gaining Traction Debit Rewards—for a Fee Chase Unveils Disney Rewards Visa Debit Card with $25 Annual Fee
  • 11. Joining a growing list of fee-based debit rewards cards But “free” is an option, too KeyBank offers free MasterCard contactless rewards debit card Cash back debit cards on the rise Cash back to incent debit trial Keep the Change! Way2Save! A regional twist: Commuter Cash Chapter 6: American Express: Rewards Anatomy and Strategy……… Value Proposition Table 6-1: 2008 Worldwide Cardholder Spend, American Express, Visa, & MasterCard Company overview Summary Introduction: Network and Card Initiatives Rewards Cards and Loyalty Programs Are the Name of the Game Response to Recession Response to Credit CARD Act Prospects American Express well-situated to take advantage of frugality trend Threats to Growth Reduction in discount revenue a foreboding possibility More partnership agreements & greater card acceptance needed What Differentiates American Express Now Makes It More of a Target No debit card? Regulatory change American Express Customer Patterns Shift to discretionary spend Shift toward everyday spending continues Charge Cards: Reemergence of a Mainstay Product Two Sides of the Demographic Coin: Premier Rewards Gold and ZYNC Card Table 6-2: Charge Card as Debit Card: Benefits of Charge Don't Take Chances, Take Charge Revolving Credit Cards In-House Proprietary Cards Perform—But Are They Being Left Behind? Significant share of billings, but scaling back Co-brand Cards: The Fight Is On U.S. Card Services: Co-Branded Cards Grow Sales Co-brand Contract Developments Co-brand Partnerships with Financial Services Institutions Airline strength also vulnerability Membership Rewards Program Underpins Charge, Proprietary and Co-Brand Cards Rewards: An Increasingly Expensive Proposition A double-sided dilemma Expenses already beginning to mount
  • 12. American Express: Relationship of Discount Rate to Merchants, Issuers, and Acquirers How it works Leveraging its closed-loop network Whew: No Interchange Fee Sales and Card Growth Worldwide assessment Table 6-3: American Express Card Billed Business, Discount Revenue, Net Card Fees, 2007-Q2 2010 (in billions of $) Table 6-4: American Express Discount Rate, Card Spend, & Fee per Card, 2005- Q2 2010 Cardmember rewards expenses Table 6-5: American Express Rewards Expense and Liabilities, 2007-Q2 2010 Table 6-6: American Express, Credit Quality Metrics, 2006-2009 (in billions of $) U.S. growth trends Table 6-7: American Express U.S. Region Billed Business & Cards in Force, 2005-2009 U.S. Card Services Table 6-8: American Express, Quarterly Summary, Q2 2009-Q2 2010 Table 6-9: American Express, U.S. Card Services Segment, Selected Sales Metrics, 2006-2009 (in billions of $) Table 6-10: American Express, U.S. Card Services Segment, Card Billed Business, 2005-2009 Table 6-11: American Express, U.S. Card Services, Q2009-Q2 2010 Table 6-12: American Express, Global Network Services Segment, Billed Business & Cards in Force, 2007-Q2 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q2 2010 rewards-related expenses skyrocket Chapter 7: JP Morgan Chase: Rewards Anatomy & Strategy… Value Proposition Card Services: Summary Overview Response to Recession Identifying loss rate correlations Figure 7-1: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Average Net Charge-off Unit Rate by External Card Debt, 2008-2009 Then act accordingly Table 7-1: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Credit Line Decreases & Account Closures, by Cardholder Debt-to-Income Rate, 2008-2009 And moving forward, narrow the prospect pool Table 7-2: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Credit Line Decreases & Account Closures, by Cardholder Debt-to-Income Rate, 2008-2009 Adjust intro rates, promo rates, and contract rates Table 7-3: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Interest Rate Offerings Change, 2008-2009
  • 13. A more sophisticated risk management strategy Response to CARD Act Prospects Credit card outstandings on track to shrink 15% in 2010 Threats to Growth Reduction in interchange revenue Regulatory change JPMorgan Chase Card Service Customer Patterns Sales among affluent customers strengthen most Bigger wallets; increased rate of spend Consumer confidence and sales volume not a coincidence? Shift to discretionary spend A more creditworthy cardholder base Figure 7-2: FICO Spreads, “Big Six” Issuers, Trust Receivables, 2009 Card Strategy: Build Brand, Rewards & Customer Relationship 2008 - 2009 - 2010 Card and Rewards Initiatives Ultimate Rewards, Blueprint, Sapphire, and Ink frame strategy “Rewards-engaged” customers outperform across all key metrics Table 7-4: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Rewards-Engaged Metrics, 2009 Figure 7-3: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Rewards Share of Outstandings, 2004-2009 Co-brand: Keep stronger hands and eliminate weaker ones Table 7-5: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Co-brand and Affiliation Rationalization, 2008-2009 Leveraging branch presence & co-brand relationships in affluent markets JPMorgan Chase Card Services by the Numbers Card metrics All Chase Chase not Washington Mutual Washington Mutual Loan loss allowance increases Down, down, down: cards, transactions and volume Table 7-6: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Financial and Business Metrics, 2007-2009 Table 7-7: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Selected Balance Sheet Data, 2007- 2009 Lions and tigers and Washington Mutual, oh, my! Table 7-8: JPMorgan Chase Card Services, Washington Mutual Key Stats, 2007- 2009 Chapter 8: Card Issuer and Association Analysis Bank of America Company Overview Credit Card Division (Global Cards Services) Reward Cards Offerings
  • 14. Financial Objectives to Card Issuance Financial Results and Root Cause Something Needs to Be Done Future of BAC’s Reward Card Programs Card Act Response Card Act and Rewards 2010 Card Strategy Affinity program Bank of America: Key Metrics Table 8-1: Bank of America, Credit Card—Domestic, Key Metrics, 2007-2009 Wells Fargo & Company Company overview Network and Card Initiatives Rewards Cards Response to Credit CARD Act Response to Recession Prospects Wells Fargo: Key Metrics Table 8-2: Wells Fargo, Key Credit Card Metrics, 2007-2009 Capital One Financial Company Overview History and development Entrance into Reward Cards & Offerings From monoline to bank The Great Recession’s impact on Capital One Future of Capital One’s Reward Card Programs Simplicity and transparency Card Act Response Card Act and Rewards Capital One: Key Metrics Table 8-3: Capital One, Key Credit Card Metrics, 2007-2009 Discover Financial Services Company overview Network and Card Initiatives Rewards Cards Table 8-4: Discover, % Cashback Bonus per Dollars Spent, 2007-2009 Response to Credit CARD Act Response to Recession Prospects Table 8-5: Discover, Key Credit Card Metrics, 2007-2009 MasterCard.. Overview Co-branding and Premier Rewards Relationship Rewards Construct MasterCard Marketplace open for business MasterCard by the Numbers
  • 15. Card counts drop precipitously 2008 declines intensify in 2009 Table 8-6: MasterCard U.S. Credit Card Metrics, 2005-2009 Visa Visa’s Three-tiered Consumer Credit Platform Visa by the Numbers Table 8-7: Visa U.S. Credit Card Metrics, 2005-2009 Chapter 9: Consumer Credit Card Usage Trends A Preface to Survey Analysis: Debit Users, Transactors, and Revolvers Credit card use dips Some 3.1 fewer million consumers using credit cards in 2010 versus 2007 MasterCard credit card use drops the most and American Express the least Table 9-1: Credit Card Usage, by Credit Card Types, 2006-2010 Engaged cardholders are the prize American Express cardholders report highest level of engagement But cardholder engagement also drops over time Table 9-2: Credit Card Use & Engagement Ratio, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010 Full-time employed provide the take of the tape Among full-time employed, credit card use is stable But engagement differentiates “Big “Four” And engagement trends suggest credit card pullback Table 9-3: Credit Card Use & Engagement Ratio, Employed Cardholders, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010 Swimming upstream: assessing higher-HH-income brackets MasterCard engagement highest among $150K+ HH income consumers Table 9-4: Credit Card Use & Engagement Ratio, $75K-$99K HH Income, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010 Discover card engagement falls ten percentage points during 2007-2010 Table 9-5: Credit Card Use & Engagement Ratio, $100K-$149K HH Income, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010 American Express holds court over engaged, affluent cardholders Table 9-6: Credit Card Use & Engagement Ratio, $150K+ HH Income, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010 American Express Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement Account growth during 2007-2010 American Express Blue at 12.4 million mark Table 9-7: Credit Card Use & Engagement, American Express Consumer Card Products, 2006-2010 Discover Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement Table 9-8: Credit Card Use & Engagement, Discover, 2006-2010 MasterCard Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement Table 9-9: Credit Card Use & Engagement, MasterCard Consumer Card Products, 2006-2010 Visa Consumer Credit Card Use & Engagement
  • 16. Table 9-10: Credit Card Use & Engagement, Visa Consumer Card Products, 2006-2010 Co-Brand Usage Trends, Big Four Table 9-11: Airline/Hotel & Organization Co-Branded Credit Cards, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010 Table 9-12: Airline/Hotel & Organization Co-Branded Credit Cards, $100K-$149K HH Income, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010 Table 9-13: Airline/Hotel & Organization Co-Branded Credit Cards, $150K+ HH Income, by Big Four Issuers, 2006-2010 Available immediately for Online Download at http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=2716351 US: 800.298.5699 UK +44.207.256.3920 Int'l: +1.240.747.3093 Fax: 240.747.3004