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Deloitte cfo survey 2013 q1

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Deloitte 2013 Q1 CFO survey. 42% of 300 CFO surveyed had cost cutting as a strong priority.

Deloitte 2013 Q1 CFO survey. 42% of 300 CFO surveyed had cost cutting as a strong priority.

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  • 1. The fog of economic uncertainty which hasbeen a dominant feature of the CFO Surveyfor the last five years showed some signs ofclearing in the first quarter. Chief Financial Officers’ perceptions ofmacroeconomic and financial uncertaintyhave dropped to a two-and-a-half-yearlow. And, despite the crisis in Cyprus, CFOsare more confident that the euro area willhold together. Lower uncertainty has liftedbusiness confidence for a third consecutivequarter and corporate appetite for risk is notfar off the peaks seen in early 2011 whenEurope looked set for a sustained recovery. Reduced stress in financial markets hasdelivered improvements in credit conditionsfor large UK corporates. CFOs say credit ismore available and cheaper than at any timesince the survey started in September 2007. CFOs have edged away from their previousemphasis on cost control and cash flow.Our index of corporate defensiveness,having trended higher for two-and-a-halfyears, has declined sharply. British business looks set to benefit from aless risky, and improving, global economicbackdrop. UK-based businesses with strongoverseas exposure are shifting towardsmore expansionary policies. UK-focusedbusinesses remain defensive, but optimismamong these companies has risen too. Overall this quarter’s survey showsa strikingly broad-based rise in confidenceamong the UK’s largest businesses.Q1 2013AuthorsIan StewartChief Economist020 7007 9386istewart@deloitte.co.ukDebapratim DeSenior Economic Analyst020 7303 0888dde@deloitte.co.ukAlex ColeEconomic Analyst020 7007 2947alecole@deloitte.co.ukContactsIan StewartChief Economist020 7007 9386istewart@deloitte.co.ukMark FitzPatrickVice Chairman andCFO Programme Leader020 7303 5167mfitzpatrick@deloitte.co.ukFewer risks, greater optimismThe Deloitte CFO SurveyChart 1. Uncertainty% of CFOs who rate the level of external financial and economic uncertainty facing their business asabove normal, high or very high7277828792972013Q12012Q42012Q32012Q22012Q12011Q42011Q32011Q22011Q12010Q42010Q3April 2013
  • 2. CFO Survey Q1 2013 Fewer Risks, greater optimism2 |2 |Optimism risesCFO optimism about financialprospects for their owncompanies has risen for thethird consecutive quarter.Companies that generate alarge share of their revenuesabroad and those that aremore UK-focused have bothbecome more optimistic.Greater optimism amongCFOs is also reflected in thecontinued easing of their fearsof a euro breakup, despite thecrisis in Cyprus.CFOs now attach an 18%probability to the eurobreaking up in 12 months– exactly half the level lastsummer.Our panel of CFOs, mostlyrepresenting large UKcorporates, also reporta continued improvementin credit conditions.CFOs report credit is cheaperand more easily available nowthan at any time in the pastfive years.Chart 2. Financial prospectsNet % of CFOs who are more optimistic about financial prospects for their company now thanthree months agoLessoptimisticMoreoptimistic-70-50-30-101030507013Q112Q312Q111Q311Q110Q310Q109Q309Q108Q308Q107Q3Chart 3. Average probability of euro secessionProbability assigned by UK CFOs to the likelihood of any of the existing members of the euroarea not being in the single currency in the next 12 months (%)2013 Q12012 Q42012 Q32012 Q22012 Q12011 Q437%26%36%27%22%18%Chart 4. Cost and availability of creditNet % of CFOs reporting credit is costly and credit is easily availableCost of credit (LHS)Availability of credit (RHS)CreditiscostlyCreditischeapCreditisavailableCreditishardtoget-100-80-60-40-20020406080100-100-80-60-40-2002040608010013Q112Q312Q111Q311Q110Q310Q109Q309Q108Q308Q107Q3
  • 3. | 3CFO Survey Q1 2013 Fewer Risks, greater optimismInvestment driversThis section compares CFO sentiment on nine key drivers of corporate investment today and six months ago.The big message is that improving macroeconomic and financial conditions are easing the constraints on businessinvestment.The radar chart below rates CFO sentiment on a score of zero to ten, with ten the most positive. The blue linedepicts CFOs’ assessment six months ago; the green line shows the current position. CFOs are more positive oneight out of the nine drivers, thus the green line almost envelops the blue line.CFOs’ biggest worries, denoted by low absolute scores on the lines, relate to economic uncertainty, the weaknessof the euro area and fiscal consolidation in the UK. But, encouragingly, they are less worried today about weakgrowth in Europe and uncertainty than six months ago. Concerns about UK fiscal consolidation have increased,but only marginally.CFOs are most optimistic, and increasingly so, about prospects for long-term growth in demand for their ownproducts and economic activity in emerging markets, the US and the Asia-Pacific region. Sentiment on the costand availability of finance has also improved, and CFOs do not see credit conditions exerting a dampening effecton investment.Chart 5. Factors affecting corporate investment plansCFOs’ assessment of the effect of each of the following factors on their investment plans: Q3 2012 (blue line) and Q1 2013 (green line)Economicand financial uncertaintyGrowth in the euro areaFiscal consolidation in the UKGrowth in the UKCost and availability of external financeAvailability of internal financeQ3 2012On a 10-point scale where 0 implies the most negative effect and 10 the most positive.Growth in emergingmarketsGrowth in the USand Asia-PacificSecular or long-term growthin demand for companies’productsQ1 201312345678910
  • 4. CFO Survey Q1 2013 Fewer Risks, greater optimism4 |Rising risk appetiteIn recent months investorshave increasingly turned torisk assets, such as equities, insearch of higher returns.The S&P 500 has gained 10%this year hitting an all-timehigh in the first week of April.CFOs’ attitudes to risk tendto mirror those of investors.Corporate risk appetite rose toalmost a two-year high in thefirst quarter.Companies that derive mostof their revenues from foreignmarkets display a significantlygreater appetite for risk thantheir UK-facing peers.Expectations for an increase incorporate revenues also rose inthe first quarter.Chart 6. Standard & Poor’s 500 equity indexSource: Thomson Reuters Datastream60080010001200140016002013201220112010200920082007Chart 7. Risk appetite% of CFOs who think this is a good time to take greater risk onto their balance sheets0102030405013Q112Q312Q111Q311Q110Q310Q109Q309Q108Q308Q107Q3Chart 8. Outlook for revenue growthNet % of CFOs who expect UK corporates’ revenues to increase in the next 12 monthsIncreaseDecrease-35-25-15-5515253545556513Q112Q412Q312Q212Q111Q411Q311Q211Q110Q410Q3
  • 5. | 5CFO Survey Q1 2013 Fewer Risks, greater optimismCFOs are placing lessemphasis on defensivestrategies, such as reducingcosts and increasing cashflow, than in the previousquarter.Nonetheless, cost reductionand increasing cash flowremain the top two prioritiesfor corporates, albeit bya narrowing margin.Our index of corporatedefensiveness, havingtrended higher fortwo-and-a-half years,has dropped sharply.Chart 9. Corporate priorities in the next 12 months% of CFOs who rated each of the following as a strong priority for their business in the next12 monthsDisposing of assetsIncreasing capitalexpenditureReducing leverageExpanding byacquisitionRaising dividendsor share buybacksIntroducing newproducts/services orexpanding intonew marketsIncreasing cash flowReducing costs42%39%35%18%17%13%15%6%50%49%34%8%17%11%20%8%2013 Q12012 Q4Chart 10. CFO priorities: Expansionary vs. defensive strategiesDefensiveArithmetic average of the % of CFOs who rated expansionary and defensive strategiesas a strong priority for their business in the next 12 months. Expansionary strategies areintroducing new products/services or expanding into new markets, expanding byacquisition and increasing capital expenditure. Defensive strategies are reducing costs,reducing leverage and increasing cash flow.Expansionary19%21%23%25%27%29%31%33%35%37%39%13Q112Q412Q312Q212Q111Q411Q311Q211Q110Q410Q3CFOs less defensive
  • 6. CFO Survey Q1 2013 Fewer Risks, greater optimism6 |International companies,those deriving more than70% of their revenuefrom outside the UK, havedecisively shifted from adefensive to an expansionarystance.UK-facing corporates, thosederiving less than 30% oftheir revenues from abroad,remain defensive.Lower costs and improvedavailability of credit haveensured that raising debt,through bond issuance orbank borrowing, remainsthe most attractive form offinancing for our panel oflarge corporates.Equity issuance has alsogained favour among CFOs.CFOs consider equities to beovervalued for the first time inthree years.Government bonds continueto be seen, as they have beenfor five years, as the mostovervalued asset.Chart 11. Index of corporate expansion: International & UK-facing corporatesDifference between the arithmetic averages of the % of CFOs who rated expansionary anddefensive strategies as a strong priority for their business in the next 12 months.Defensive and expansionary strategies defined under Chart 10.InternationalUK-facingExpansionaryDefensive-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%13Q112Q412Q312Q212Q111Q411Q311Q2Overseas markets beckonChart 12. Favoured source of corporate fundingNet % of CFOs reporting the following sources of funding as attractiveBondissuanceBankborrowingEquityissuanceAttractiveUnattractive-60-40-2002040608013Q112Q312Q111Q311Q110Q310Q109Q309Q108Q308Q107Q3Chart 13. UK valuationsNet % of respondents who think the following assets are overvaluedGovernment bondsCommercialreal estateEquitiesOvervaluedUndervalued-80-60-40-2002040608010013Q112Q312Q111Q311Q110Q310Q109Q309Q108Q308Q107Q3
  • 7. | 7CFO Survey Q1 2013 Fewer Risks, greater optimismEconomic and financial contextThe macroeconomic backdrop to the Deloitte CFO Survey Q1 2013Economic activity in the UK and the euro area appears to have stagnated in the first quarter and growth forecastsfor 2013 have drifted lower. However, the British Chambers of Commerce reported a rise in optimism among smallUK companies. Market nerves about the US deficit eased and US housing and employment activity improved.The outlook for growth in emerging markets improved as fears of a ‘hard landing’ eased. The bold monetaryand fiscal stimulus policies introduced by Japan’s new government led to a strong rally in Japanese equities andboosted confidence about Japan’s growth prospects. Financial markets continued to strengthen, with the UKFTSE 100 up 8.7% between January and the end of March, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Averagereaching all-time highs. Financial market optimism was only briefly dented by the €17 billion bailout of Cypriotbanks. The episode set new precedents with private depositors being forced to contribute to the rescue and theimposition of capital controls.UK GDP growth: Actual and forecast (%)-8-6-4-202462013201220112010200920082007UK growth to seeweak recoveryQuarter-on-quartergrowthForecastsYear-on-yeargrowthSource: ONS, consensus forecasts from The Economist andDeloitte calculationsUK private and public sector job growth (thousands)Source: ONSPrivate sector hiringoffsets public sectorjob lossesPrivate sector-300-200-100010020030040050012Q412Q111Q110Q109Q108Q107Q1Public sectorVIX Index – a measure of equity market volatility01020304050607080902013201220112010200920082007Financial stresshas easedSource: ONS, consensus forecasts from The Economist andDeloitte calculationsGreaterfinancialstressUK annual CPI inflation (%)0123456789121008060402009896949290UK consumer price inflationhas edged up recentlySource: ONS
  • 8. CFO Survey Q1 2013 Fewer Risks, greater optimism8 |Two-chart summary of key survey messagesDeloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (“DTTL”), a UK private company limited by guarantee, and itsnetwork of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see www.deloitte.co.uk/about for adetailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms.Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of DTTL.This publication has been written in general terms and therefore cannot be relied on to cover specific situations; application of theprinciples set out will depend upon the particular circumstances involved and we recommend that you obtain professional advicebefore acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP would be pleased to advise readers onhow to apply the principles set out in this publication to their specific circumstances. Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liabilityfor any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication.© 2013 Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved.Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC303675 and its registeredoffice at 2 New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Tel: +44 (0) 20 7936 3000 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7583 1198.Designed and produced by The Creative Studio at Deloitte, London. 26020AAbout the surveyThis is the 23rdquarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers and Group Finance Directors of major companies in the UK.The 2013 first quarter survey took place between 14thand 28thMarch. 120 CFOs participated, including the CFOsof 26 FTSE 100 and 44 FTSE 250 companies. The rest were CFOs of other UK-listed companies, large private companiesand UK subsidiaries of major companies listed overseas. The combined market value of the 69 UK-listed companiessurveyed is £671 billion, or approximately 32% of the UK quoted equity market.The Deloitte CFO Survey is is the only survey of major corporate users of capital that gauges attitudes to valuations,risk and financing. To join our panel of CFO respondents and for additional copies of this report, please contactTulaine Trimble on 020 7007 1684 or email ttrimble@deloitte.co.ukPlease visit www.deloitte.co.uk/cfosurvey for current and past copies of the survey, historical data and coverageof the survey in the media and elsewhere.Uncertainty% of CFOs who rate the level of external financial and economicuncertainty facing their business as above normal, high or very highSharp fall in uncertainty72778287929713Q112Q412Q312Q212Q111Q411Q311Q211Q110Q410Q3CFO priorities: Expansionary vs. defensive strategiesDefensiveCFOs less defensiveArithmetic average of the % of CFOs who rated expansionary and defensivestrategies as a strong priority for their business in the next 12 months.See page 5 for definitions of expansionary and defensive strategies.Expansionary19%21%23%25%27%29%31%33%35%37%39%13Q112Q412Q312Q212Q111Q411Q311Q211Q110Q410Q3

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