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Energy technology diffusion and CO 2  emission reduction: An application of the Ramsey model with logistic process Kazushi Hatase Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University
Effect of economic inertia: motivation for this study ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 An explanation of economic inertia by Grubb (1997) Objective of this study ,[object Object],[object Object],International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Ha-Duong, Grubb and Hourcade (1997), Nature, 390: 270 – 273 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Policy implications of Ha-Duong, Grubb and Hourcade (1997) ,[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Model of this study ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 Model Significance of the model of this study  ,[object Object],[object Object],International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Model of global economy (the Ramsey model) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Logistic curve ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Logistic curve (continued) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Energy price and learning-by-doing ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 ,[object Object],International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University Technology Period Value of b Nuclear (OECD) 1975 – 1993 0.09 GTCC ( OECD ) 1984 – 1994 0.60 Wind (OECD) 1981 – 1995 0.27 Photovoltaics (OECD) 1968 – 1998 0.32 Ethanol (Brazil) 1979 – 1995 0.32
Learning-by-doing in the computer program ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Combining the Ramsey model, logistic curve and learning-by-doing ,[object Object],November 22, 2008 Logistic curve Learning by doing International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Climate change model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Simulation scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 STC: Slow Technological Change  FTC: Fast Technological Change LL: Low Learning  HL: High Learning ,[object Object],International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University Run : coefficient of logistic curve b : experience index (a) STC + LL 0.05 0.1 (b) STC + HL 0.05 0.5 (c) FTC + LL 0.15 0.1 (d) FTC + HL 0.15 0.5
Common parameters (mainly adopted from DEMETER model) November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University Parameter Description Value K(0) Capital in 2000 76.746 $trillion Y(0) Gross output (GWP) in 2000 29.068 $trillion E(0) Total energy input in 2000 6.628 GtC δ Depreciation rate on capital 7%/year γ Capital’s value share 0.31 σ Elasticity between K-L and E 0.40 S(0) Share of new energy in 2000 4.2% p F (0) Price of fossil energy in 2000 276.29 $/tC p N  (0) Price of new energy in 2000 1000 $/tC p N min   Lowest possible cost of new energy 250 $/tC σ N Plant’s depreciation rate of new energy 7%/year g N Growth rate of new energy inputs 4.8%/year M(0) Carbon accumulation in the atmosphere in 2000 786 GtC μ Removal rate of CO2 from the atmosphere 0.6%/year θ F Emission intensity of fossil energy 1.0 Emis Nat Natural CO2 emission in 2000 1.33 GtC/year
Calibration of the production function (based on MERGE model’s method) ,[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Optimal CO 2  emission pathways ,[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Optimal CO 2  reduction pathways November 22, 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Optimal technology switch timing ,[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Loss of GWP through CO 2  emission reduction November 22, 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Technology switch and GWP loss under High Learning November 22, 2008 ,[object Object],[object Object],International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University
Other discussions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University

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Energy technology diffusion and CO2 emission reduction: An application of the Ramsey model with logistic process

  • 1. Energy technology diffusion and CO 2 emission reduction: An application of the Ramsey model with logistic process Kazushi Hatase Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University
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  • 14. Common parameters (mainly adopted from DEMETER model) November 22, 2008 International Symposium on New Development in Environmental Economics, Sophia University Parameter Description Value K(0) Capital in 2000 76.746 $trillion Y(0) Gross output (GWP) in 2000 29.068 $trillion E(0) Total energy input in 2000 6.628 GtC δ Depreciation rate on capital 7%/year γ Capital’s value share 0.31 σ Elasticity between K-L and E 0.40 S(0) Share of new energy in 2000 4.2% p F (0) Price of fossil energy in 2000 276.29 $/tC p N (0) Price of new energy in 2000 1000 $/tC p N min Lowest possible cost of new energy 250 $/tC σ N Plant’s depreciation rate of new energy 7%/year g N Growth rate of new energy inputs 4.8%/year M(0) Carbon accumulation in the atmosphere in 2000 786 GtC μ Removal rate of CO2 from the atmosphere 0.6%/year θ F Emission intensity of fossil energy 1.0 Emis Nat Natural CO2 emission in 2000 1.33 GtC/year
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