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Making Agile Es-ma-on Work 
Stephen Forte 
@worksonmypc
I’m Steve
Es-ma-on Defined (sort of) 
“Es$ma$on 
is 
the 
calculated 
approxima$on 
of 
a 
result 
which 
is 
usable 
even 
if 
input 
data 
may 
be 
incomplete 
or 
uncertain.” 
• Problem 
— Wikipedia 
is 
that 
es.mates 
become 
a 
unbreakable 
schedule, 
where 
any 
devia.on 
is 
considered 
bad
The Es-ma-on Problem 
• When 
you 
come 
up 
with 
a 
project 
idea, 
your 
first 
es.mate 
is 
off 
by 
+/4x 
• Not 
enough 
details 
are 
known 
• Tradi.onally 
too 
much 
.me 
is 
spent 
on 
building 
a 
specifica.on 
which 
is 
not 
complete 
• Again, 
not 
enough 
details 
are 
known 
• As 
.me 
progresses, 
more 
details 
emerge 
about 
the 
system 
and 
its 
details 
• The 
cone 
of 
uncertainty
The Cone of Uncertainty 
4x 
2x 
1.5x 
1.25x 
1.0x 
.8x 
.67x 
.5x 
25x
Agile Es-ma-on 
• Es.ma.on 
is 
uncertain 
by 
defini.on! 
• Problem 
is 
that 
es.mates 
become 
an 
unbreakable 
schedule, 
where 
any 
devia.on 
is 
considered 
bad 
• Agile 
Es.ma.on 
throws 
this 
logic 
away 
and 
always 
re-­‐es.mates 
a 
project 
aIer 
each 
itera.on 
• Different 
value 
system, 
devia.ons 
are 
not 
devia.ons, 
they 
are 
more 
accurate 
es.ma.ons 
• Uses 
the 
cone 
of 
uncertainty 
to 
your 
advantage
How to Es-mate
User Stories
Story Points
Planning Poker
Product Backlog
Velocity
Re-­‐es-ma-on
Beyond Es-ma-on: Metrics
Reading List 
Books 
we 
have 
read 
and 
recommend: 
• User 
Stories 
Applied 
by 
Mike 
Cohn 
• Agile 
Es0ma0ng 
and 
Planning 
by 
Mike 
Cohn 
• Agile 
Retrospec0ves 
by 
Esther 
Derby 
and 
Diana 
Larsen
Ques-ons?
Agile Patterns: Estimation - Stephen Forte | FalafelCON 2014
Agile Patterns: Estimation - Stephen Forte | FalafelCON 2014

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Agile Patterns: Estimation - Stephen Forte | FalafelCON 2014

  • 1. Making Agile Es-ma-on Work Stephen Forte @worksonmypc
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  • 8. Es-ma-on Defined (sort of) “Es$ma$on is the calculated approxima$on of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.” • Problem — Wikipedia is that es.mates become a unbreakable schedule, where any devia.on is considered bad
  • 9. The Es-ma-on Problem • When you come up with a project idea, your first es.mate is off by +/4x • Not enough details are known • Tradi.onally too much .me is spent on building a specifica.on which is not complete • Again, not enough details are known • As .me progresses, more details emerge about the system and its details • The cone of uncertainty
  • 10. The Cone of Uncertainty 4x 2x 1.5x 1.25x 1.0x .8x .67x .5x 25x
  • 11. Agile Es-ma-on • Es.ma.on is uncertain by defini.on! • Problem is that es.mates become an unbreakable schedule, where any devia.on is considered bad • Agile Es.ma.on throws this logic away and always re-­‐es.mates a project aIer each itera.on • Different value system, devia.ons are not devia.ons, they are more accurate es.ma.ons • Uses the cone of uncertainty to your advantage
  • 20. Reading List Books we have read and recommend: • User Stories Applied by Mike Cohn • Agile Es0ma0ng and Planning by Mike Cohn • Agile Retrospec0ves by Esther Derby and Diana Larsen