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Here are 3 charts that tell you all you need to know about the recent market action in our November stock market update.
#ETFresearch, #ETFinvesting, #ETFTrends, $JNK, $SPY
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3. Hi, My name is Corey and I‘m with ETF
Trading Research, today were reviewing
our recently published article…
5. The beginning of November marks the
return of the Sell-In-May-And-Go-Away
crowd. They’re returning to a market
that’s on much more solid footing than it
was a few months ago.
Here’s what we know…
7. US stocks enjoyed an impressive rally
over the last month. The S&P 500 shot
up 12.5% from the low on September
29th to the close on November 2nd.
That’s an impressive gain to say the
least.
8.
9. Along the way the S&P 500 cut through
multiple resistance levels like a hot knife
through butter. Now the large cap index
is back above all of critical moving
averages like the 50-day moving average,
10. 200-day moving average, and the 50-
week moving average. All sectors except
utilities have raced higher over the last
month.
13. The impressive move was fueled by a
combination of better than expected third
quarter earnings and central bank
actions that are beneficial to stocks.
14. There was a large influx of money that
flooded out of short term treasuries after
the latest Fed announcement. In short,
the Fed put the possibility of December
rate hike back on the table… if the
economic data supports it.
15. A big chunk of this money found its way
into junk bonds. Look at the surge in
volume and strong price performance of
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF
$JNK.
16.
17. However, there are still headwinds for
stocks. The US Dollar is strengthening
again. That puts pressure on commodity
prices and corporate earnings made in
foreign currencies.
18. And slowing economic growth in China
is hurting as well. Companies that made
a big push into China in recent years
aren’t seeing the growth they expected
for everything from basic materials to
consumer items.
19. Those concerns aside, there’s no doubt
that the recent rally has flipped investor
sentiment. According to the AAII
Investor Sentiment Survey, 40.4% of
investors are now bullish on stocks over
the next six months.
22. Amazingly, the S&P 500 is back near the
all-time high. Needless to say, the rally
has shot holes in the theories that stocks
were entering into a bear market. But
don’t forget that the correction did break
the uptrend.
23. And there’s still lots of uncertainty about
the next market move. We could be at the
beginning of new uptrend. Or we could
enter another period of stagnant stock
returns and range bound trading.
24. Or the recent rally could be a counter-
trend rally at the beginning of a down
trend. All three are very real possibilities
right now. Only time and price action will
tell us what the next phase holds for
stocks.