ECN/EWIS Wind Power Forecasting is presented

1. Wind Power Forecasting
Arno J. Brand
www.ecn.nl

2. Wind Power Forecasting
Physical forecasting method AVDE
Atmospheric model data
Physical modeling
Site data
Wind (power) forecast
2 16 March 2011

3. Wind Power Forecasting
Physical forecasting method AVDE
Atmospheric model data
State of the atmosphere in the near future
Physical modeling
Site data
Wind (power) forecast
3 16 March 2011

4. Wind Power Forecasting
Physical forecasting method AVDE
Atmospheric model data
State of the atmosphere in the near future
Physical modeling
Site data Descriptions of relevant physical processes
Wind (power) forecast
4 16 March 2011

5. Wind Power Forecasting
Physical forecasting method AVDE
Atmospheric model data
State of the atmosphere in the near future
Physical modeling
Site data Descriptions of relevant physical processes
Environment
Turbines
Correlations
Wind (power) forecast
5 16 March 2011

6. Wind Power Forecasting
Physical forecasting method AVDE
Atmospheric model data
State of the atmosphere in the near future
Physical modeling
Site data Descriptions of relevant physical processes
Environment
Turbines
Correlations
Wind (power) forecast
Wind (power) expected in the near future
6 16 March 2011

7. Wind Power Forecasting
Physical forecasting method AVDE
Atmospheric model data
Physical modeling
Site data
Wind (power) forecast
7 16 March 2011

8. Wind Power Forecasting
Physical forecasting method AVDE
Two wind speed components + Temperature + Pressure
Two vertical levels, Horizontal grid covering site
Time step 1 or 3 hour up to +48 hour
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8 16 March 2011

9. Wind Power Forecasting
Physical forecasting method AVDE
Two wind speed components + Temperature + Pressure
Two vertical levels, Horizontal grid covering site
Time step 1 or 3 hour up to +48 hour
. Surface roughness:
.  Fetch <10 km open water: fixed surface roughness length
.  Otherwise: Charnock relation
.
. Obstacles:
.  Displacement height
.
. Atmospheric stability via Obukhov length:
.  Very stable conditions: Holtslag speed and temperature profiles
 Otherwise: Businger-Dyer profiles
.
.
.
9 16 March 2011

10. Wind Power Forecasting
Physical forecasting method AVDE
Two wind speed components + Temperature + Pressure
Two vertical levels, Horizontal grid covering site
Time step 1 or 3 hour up to +48 hour
Geographic coordinates Surface roughness:
Turbine hub height  Fetch <10 km open water: fixed surface roughness length
Height above mean sea level  Otherwise: Charnock relation
Global roughness lengths
Local roughness lengths Obstacles:
Displacement heights  Displacement height
Slope and offset on wind speed
Turbine power curve Atmospheric stability via Obukhov length:
Slope and offset on wind power  Very stable conditions: Holtslag speed and temperature profiles
 Otherwise: Businger-Dyer profiles
.
.
.
10 16 March 2011

11. Wind Power Forecasting
Physical forecasting method AVDE
Two wind speed components + Temperature + Pressure
Two vertical levels, Horizontal grid covering site
Time step 1 or 3 hour up to +48 hour
Geographic coordinates Surface roughness:
Turbine hub height  Fetch <10 km open water: fixed surface roughness length
Height above mean sea level  Otherwise: Charnock relation
Global roughness lengths
Local roughness lengths Obstacles:
Displacement heights  Displacement height
Slope and offset on wind speed
Turbine power curve Atmospheric stability via Obukhov length:
Slope and offset on wind power  Very stable conditions: Holtslag speed and temperature profiles
 Otherwise: Businger-Dyer profiles
Wind speed confidence interval
Wind power confidence interval
Time step 10 or 15 minutes up to +48 hour
11 16 March 2011

12. Wind Power Forecasting
Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE
12 16 March 2011

13. Wind Power Forecasting
Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE
kg/m
3
air density
1.35
Copyright ©
2006 by ECN
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
1.10
2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/26
08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00
local time
13 16 March 2011

14. Wind Power Forecasting
Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE
de g
wind direction
kg/m
3
air density north
Copyright ©
360 2006 by ECN
330 1.35 Copyright ©
300 2006 by ECN west
270 1.30
240
210
1.25 south
180
150
120 1.20
90 east
60 1.15
30
0
1.10 north
2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/26
2008/09/24 14:00
08:00 2008/09/24 20:00
2008/09/24 02:00
2008/09/25 08:00
2008/09/25 14:00
2008/09/25 20:00
2008/09/25 02:00
2008/09/26
08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00
local tim e
local time
14 16 March 2011

15. Wind Power Forecasting
Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE
m/s
de g wind speed
wind direction
kg/m
3
air density Copyright © north
35 2006 by ECN
Copyright ©
360 2006 by ECN
30 330 1.35
Copyright ©
25 300 2006 by ECN west
270 1.30
20 240
210
15 180 1.25 south
150
10 120 1.20
5 90 east
60 1.15
0 30
0
2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/26
1.10 north
2008/09/24 14:00
2008/09/24 20:00
2008/09/24 02:00
2008/09/25 08:00
2008/09/25 14:00
2008/09/25 20:00
2008/09/25 02:00
2008/09/26
08:00 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/26
08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00
08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 tim e 08:00
local 14:00 20:00 02:00
local tim e
local time
15 16 March 2011

16. Wind Power Forecasting
Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE
m/s wind power variation intensity
de g wind speed
wind direction
1.0
kg/m
3
air density Copyright ©
Copyright © north
35 2006 2006 by ECN
by ECN
0.9 Copyright ©
360 2006 by ECN
0.8 30 330 1.35
Copyright ©
0.7 west
25 300 2006 by ECN
0.6 270 1.30
0.5 20 240
0.4 210
15 180 1.25 south
0.3 150
0.2 10 120 1.20
0.1 5 90 east
0.0 60 1.15
0 30
2008/09/240 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/26
2008/09/24 14:00
08:00 1.102008/09/24 20:00
2008/09/24 02:00
2008/09/25 08:00
2008/09/25 14:00
2008/09/25 20:00
2008/09/25 02:00
2008/09/26 north
2008/09/24 14:00
2008/09/24 20:00
2008/09/24 02:00
2008/09/25 08:00
2008/09/25 14:00
2008/09/25 20:00
2008/09/25 02:00
08:00 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/262008/09/26
08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 time
local 08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00
08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 tim e 08:00
local 14:00 20:00 02:00
local tim e
local time
16 16 March 2011

17. Wind Power Forecasting
Wind power forecasting mode of AVDE
kW wind power
m/s wind power variation intensity
de g wind speed
wind direction Copyright © low
1.0
kg/m
3
air density 2006 Copyright ©
Copyright ©
by ECN north
12500 35
by ECN high ©
2006 2006 by ECN
0.9 Copyright
360 expected
2006 by ECN
10000 30 330 1.35
0.8
Copyright ©
0.7 300 2006 by ECN west
7500 25 270 1.30
0.6
0.5 20 240
5000
0.4 210
15 180 1.25 south
0.3 150
2500
0.2 10 120 1.20
0.1 5 90
0 east
0.0 60 1.15
2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/26
0 30
2008/09/240 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 20:00
08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 08:00 14:00 2008/09/25 02:00
2008/09/26
2008/09/24 14:00
08:00 1.102008/09/24 20:00
2008/09/24 02:00
2008/09/25 08:00
2008/09/25 14:00
2008/09/25 20:00
2008/09/25 02:00
2008/09/26 north
2008/09/24 14:00
2008/09/24 20:00
2008/09/24 02:00
2008/09/25 08:00
2008/09/25 14:00
2008/09/25 20:00
2008/09/25 02:00
08:00 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 2008/09/24 local time 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/25 2008/09/262008/09/26
08:00 14:00 20:00 2008/09/25 08:00
02:00 time 14:00 20:00 02:00
local
08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 tim e 08:00
local 14:00 20:00 02:00
local tim e
local time
17 16 March 2011

18. Wind Power Forecasting
The experience
18 16 March 2011

19. Wind Power Forecasting
The experience
 Forecasting services
19 16 March 2011

20. Wind Power Forecasting
The experience
 Forecasting services
 Evaluation studies
20 16 March 2011

21. Wind Power Forecasting
The experience
 Forecasting services
 Evaluation studies
 Integration studies
21 16 March 2011

22. Wind Power Forecasting
Forecasting Service
Historic Forecasts
22 16 March 2011

23. Wind Power Forecasting
Forecasting Service
 Four times per day
 +48h forecast
 Per grid connection
Historic Forecasts
23 16 March 2011

24. Wind Power Forecasting
Forecasting Service
 Four times per day
 +48h forecast
 Per grid connection
Historic Forecasts
 June 2001 - present
 4 daily +48h forecasts
 Per grid connection
24 16 March 2011

25. Wind Power Forecasting
Contact
Arno J. Brand
ECN Wind Energy
Wind turbine rotor and Wind farm Aerodynamics
M: P.O. Box 1, NL 1755 ZG Petten, Netherlands
E: brand@ecn.nl
T: +31 224 56 4775
F: +31 224 56 8214
I: nl.linkedin.com/in/arnobrand
25 16 March 2011