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1.
CINDY期間中の
解析誤差分布の特徴
茂木耕作
海洋研究開発機構
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2.
CINDY期間中の
解析誤差分布の特徴
茂木耕作
海洋研究開発機構
-
3.
CINDY2011 Japan / Mirai
Oct. 2011-Jan. 2012
Oct 2011-Jan 2012
U.S. / Roger Revelle
+
+ ++
Nairobi
+
Seychelles ++
+
Cocos
India / Sagar Kanya
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4.
CINDY
MJO1
３事例の
MJO2 MJOを
MJO3
観測
-
5.
A2 だけが 示せる
ALER
CINDY中のMJOの特徴
茂木耕作
海洋研究開発機構
-
6.
ALERA2
エラーバー付き客観解析(2003∼2012)
観測
アンサンブル
のばらつき
≒
誤差 次の解析
解析 予報
-
7.
ALERA2
予報モデル AFES (榎本剛)
同化システム LETKF (三好建正)
解像度 T119L48
アンサンブル数 63
UCAR GTS
観測
NOAA 日毎のSST
-
8.
R A2だけ が示せる
MJO1 ALE
MJO1の特徴
MJO2
MJO3
-
9.
東西風解析値の時間高度断面
-
10.
東西風解析値の時間高度断面
U解析(m/s)
σ面高度
西風
西風 西風
MJO1
-
11.
東西風誤差の時間高度断面
U誤差(m/s)
σ面高度
西風
西風 西風
MJO1
-
12.
東西風誤差の時間高度断面
U誤差(m/s)
E1 E2 E3 E4
σ面高度
MJO1
-
13.
東西風誤差の経度時間断面
E1
E2
E3 MJO1
E4
-
14.
東西風誤差の偏差の経度時間断面
E1
E2
E3 MJO1
E4
-
15.
東西風誤差の偏差の経度時間断面
E1
E2
E3 MJO1
E4
-
16.
U誤差(500hPa)
MJO1 MJO1
MJO2 MJO2
MJO3 MJO3
-
17.
V誤差(500hPa)
MJO1 MJO1
MJO2 MJO2
MJO3 MJO3
-
18.
T誤差(500hPa)
MJO1 MJO1
MJO2 MJO2
MJO3 MJO3
-
19.
Q誤差(500hPa)
MJO1
MJO2
MJO3
-
20.
誤差
進 Q
東進 西
UVT
誤差
力学場不確定性 水蒸気場不確定性
後面で大 前面で大
-
21.
A2 だけが 示せる
ALER
CINDY中のMJOの特徴
力学場不確定性 水蒸気場不確定性
後面で大 前面で大
アフリカ大陸 海大陸での
での力学場観測強化 水蒸気観測強化
-
22.
A2 だけが 示せる
ALER
CINDY中のMJOの特徴
茂木耕作
-
23.
現象が生じた結果として
見える解析値
解析誤差
発生前の兆候
-
24.
可降水量
MJO1
MJO2
MJO3
-
25.
MJO1
CINDY
MJO2
MJO3
-
26.
現象トレーサー：解析誤差
-
27.
T誤差(500hPa) CW誤差(500hPa)
MJO1
MJO2
MJO3
-
28.
T誤差(500hPa) Q誤差(500hPa)
MJO1
MJO2
MJO3
-
29.
PDF 予稿 紙
MJO発生前から中層で周期的誤差増大
I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
We used a reanalysis dataset with errors at all grid points.\nWe are calling it ALERA.\nIt is produced by an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation technique.\nWe get the error reference from the spread of analysis ensemble member at all grid points.\nIt is not constant as like the other datasets, it is, of course, flow-dependent on dynamic.\n\n
Now, we are producing a new one using far more accurate system of the second generation ALERA.\nThis system is mainly developed by the two genius guys here.\nAs for the forecast model, the AGCM for Earth Simulator is developed by Dr. Enomoto.\nAs for the assimilation system, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter is developed by Dr. Miyoshi.\nIt has a resolution of T119 with 48 levels, and 63 ensemble members.\nThe assimilated observations are obtained from UCAR GTS archive and NOAA daily SST.\n\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Like this.\nWe are having the intensified observation network in this way.\nOne day, we have larger errors of zonal wind in the western part of the Indian Ocean.\n
Four days after, it becomes larger and moves eastward.\n
Four more days after, it moves eastward further and has the maximum more than 6 m/s associating with strong westerly winds.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
