This paper will assert that the defeat of the Green Movement occurred as a result of more than “brutal crackdowns” by Iranian security forces. Rather, the Iranian regime demonstrated strategic security capabilities including cohesive institutional backing of the state, comprehensive operational skills, mass tactical ground support, and ideological strength exploited by Iran’s senior leadership, which effectively mobilized large segments of Iran’s population against the reformers. Moreover, the potency, depth, range, and reach of Iran’s security forces indicated a preponderance of power over the opposition, an advantage not likely to diminish in the short and medium terms.  

1. Assessing Iranian
Security
Capabilities:
The Case of the
Green Movement
Protests, 2009-
2011
Martin Scott Catino, Ph.D.
American Military University

2. Disclaimer
The views expressed in this presentation
are completely my own and do not
necessarily represent the views of
American Military University or any
other organization associated with the
presenter/author.

3. What Was the Green Movement?

4. The Most Serious Challenge to the regime
since the Islamic Revolution of 1979
 Sheer numbers: millions?
 Penetration of Tehran:
Government, economic, and
population hub
 Decentralization: spontaneity;
fluidity; and agility
 Ideology: deep-seated
antipathy to the regime
 Durability? 2009 to 2011 Protests of the June 2009 Presidential Elections

5. Research Question?
What role did the Iranian security
forces play in the defeat and
degradation of the Green Movement?

6. Thesis
This paper will assert that the defeat of the Green Movement
occurred as a result of more than “brutal crackdowns” by Iranian
security forces. Rather, the Iranian regime demonstrated strategic
security capabilities including cohesive institutional backing of the
state, comprehensive operational skills, mass tactical ground
support, and ideological strength exploited by Iran’s senior
leadership, which effectively mobilized large segments of Iran’s
population against the reformers. Moreover, the potency, depth,
range, and reach of Iran’s security forces indicated a preponderance
of power over the opposition, an advantage not likely to diminish in
the short and medium terms.

7. Khamenei and Strategic Leadership
 Effective Counter
Narrative
 Isolation of protest
leaders
 Crisis management
 Engagement of
institutional leadership

8. Institutional Support: The Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps
 Effective Organizational
Building and supporting
 Subordination to regime
 Operability and ideological
zeal
 Defection: A sign of
strength

9. Strategic Security Operations
 Responsiveness and
Continuity of operations
 Interdicting Green
Movement senior
leadership
 Information Dominance
 Interdiction of mass
protests with mass
ground support
The infamous “plainclothes police”

10. The Basij  Area control; counter
organization
 Force multiplier
 Ideological structure
 Intelligence collection
 Economic and logistic
asset
 Mechanism of core
political survival

11. Defeat or What does defeat look like?
 Degraded ability to lead, organize,
and mobilize the opposition
 Failure to achieve considerable
foreign support
 Inability to utilize the human and
geographical terrain
 Inability to influence the
government
 Inability to degrade, deny, or
defeat the security apparatus of the
regime

12. From Summary to Conclusion
 The Islamic Republic of Iran possesses strong state and security
structures able to withstand severe opposition.
 The Islamic Republic is likely to resist effectively similar political
challenges it faces in the near and medium terms.
 The tactics of civil disobedience used by the opposition are likely
to prove ineffective against a regime which possesses strong
security capabilities operating effectively across broad
geographical areas of Iran and with significant mass support.
 The regime’s ability to anticipate, organize, and posture against
“soft power” threats is one of its striking features or capabilities.

13. Thank You

14. CONTACT
INFORMATION
Martin Scott Catino, Ph.D.
Email:
mscottcat@yahoo.com