Ten in Ten Ten Technology
Trends that Will Change the World in Ten Years Dave Evans Cisco’s Chief Futurist and Chief Technologist for Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) CiscoLive July 12, 2011

The Ten… Trends and implications
1. The Internet of Things 2. The Zettaflood Is Coming 3. Wisdom of the Cloud 4. The Next Net 5. The World Is Flat and So Is Your Technology 6. The Power of Power 7. It’s All About You 8. The Next Dimension 9. Another Family Tree 10. You…Only Better Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011

1 Internet of Things: First
Evolution of the Internet

The Internet of Things Is
Already Here World Population: 6.3 Billion 6.8 Billion 7.2 Billion 7.6 Billion Connected Devices: 500 Million 12.5 Billion 25 Billion 50 Billion More connected devices than people Connected Devices 0.08 1.84 3.47 6.58 Per Person 2003 2010 2015 2020 Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011

New Internet Inhabitants What do
trees, cows, shoes, and your body have in common? This tree has 3,000 Cow transmits Connected shoe followers…do you? 200 MB per year Asthma inhaler cross-referenced with environmental / weather data Proteus chip transmits data from your stomach Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Sparked, 2010; Nike, 2010; David Van Sickle, 2011; Proteus, 2011

IPv6: Connectivity Without Meaningful Limits
52,000 trillion trillion 100 addresses for 4.8 trillion addresses addresses per every atom on the for every star in the person earth’s surface known universe IPv4 addresses: 4,294,967,296 IPv6 addresses: 340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456 Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006–2011; Steve Leibson, Computer History Museum; CNN

The Opportunity: Turning Data into
Wisdom More Important Wisdom Knowledge Information Data Less Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011 Important

2
The Zettaflood Is Coming

By 2015, 1 Zettabyte of
Data Will Flow over the Internet  One zettabyte = stack of books from Earth to Pluto 20 times (72 billion miles)  Increase of 540,000 times from 2003; more than 90% from video  If an 11 oz. cup of coffee equals 1 gigabyte, then 1 zettabyte would have the same volume of the Great Wall of China Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), June 2011

3
Wisdom of the Cloud

More and More Data in
the Cloud Cloud Virtualization Web Client Server Minicomputer Mainframe 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010  By 2020, one-third of all data will live in or pass through the cloud  Global cloud services revenue will jump 20% per year  IT spending on innovation and cloud computing could top $1 trillion by 2014 Creating new capabilities… Sources: Lew Tucker, Cloud CTO, Cisco, 2011; EMC, 2010; IDC, 2010

Watson Will Improve Our Health
What if Watson were a cloud service? From Jeopardy winner… …to healthcare provider IBM’s Watson supercomputer defeats Watson’s ability to answer questions humans in final Jeopardy match makes it ideal for doctors to improve patient care Source: IBM, 2011

4
The Next Net

Recent Networking Advances  February
2011: Ericsson and Sant’Anna demonstrate 448 GB per second over fiber (20 HD movies / second)  March 2011: Northwestern University researchers develop new switching device to usher in ultrafast quantum Internet  April 2011: World record set by sending more than 100 terabits of information per second through a single optical fiber  May 2011: Researchers set new record for rate of data transfer using a single laser at 26 terabits per second All developments in 4-month period Sources: American Physical Society, 2011; BBC, 2011

5 The World Is Flat…
So Is Your Technology

From Near Time to Real
Time Everyone becomes a reporter + + = Broadband Anywhere, anytime Internet TV wireless production In 10 years, anyone will broadcast anywhere to anybody on any device Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011

6
The Power of Power

Solar Is a Viable Solution
 Sandia produces solar cells with 100 times less material / same efficiency  MIT technology allows windows to generate power without blocking view  June 2011: inkjet printer produces solar cells with 90 percent decrease in waste at significantly lower costs Oregon State University researchers develop novel method to produce solar cells using inkjet printer Source: BBC News, June 2011

7
It’s All About You

Brain-Machine Interfaces: The Ultimate Integration
February 2009: University of Toronto scientists invent machine that determines what you’re thinking (80% accuracy) June 2009: University of Southampton demonstrates brain-to- brain communication over Internet Brain-controlled prosthesis October 2009: Toyota showcases mind-controlled wheelchair with 95% accuracy March 2010: University of Maryland decodes brain signals / reconstructs into 3D hand movements April 2010: Intel software analyzes fMRI scans to determine what you’re thinking (90% accuracy) July 2011: University of Western Ontario develops technology to predict what a person is going to do before he or she does it Mind-controlled wheelchair Artificial brain implants expected by 2030 Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Toyota; CNN; USA Today; KurzweilAI.net; wfs.org

8 The Next Dimension Tomorrow:
Anything on Demand

Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing) 
Additive manufacturing: “The process of joining materials to make objects from 3D model data, usually layer upon layer.” Printing file size approx. 1 MB  Subtractive manufacturing includes methodologies such as traditional machining Source: Stratasys, 2011

3D Printing a Gimmick? You
Decide. Dinosaur skull Toy car Model engine Working bicycle Sources: Stratasys, 2011; European Air Defense System

3D Printing: What About Us?
Developed technique to print human March 2011: Dr. Atala prints a cells using modified inkjet printer kidney mold on stage at TED (Proof of principle only) Source: Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine, 2011; TED Conferences, LLC

9
Another Family Tree

Interacting with Technology: Artificial Entities
“It’s possible to make a conscious computer with superhuman intelligence before 2020.” Ian Pearson Head of Futurology British Telecommunications  Automatic emotions, gestures, and responses Emily  Speech recognition  Text-to-speech  Knowledge of previous Current Technology encounters (memory) Virtual Valerie  Every interaction will be a network call Progression of Conversational Interfaces Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006-2011; Carnegie Mellon, 2004; Image Metrics, 2010

10
You…Only Better
Fundamental Changes

Self-Evolution of the Species March
2010 July 2009 Retina implant restores Spanish researchers discover vision to blind patients substance for photographic memory October 2009 February 2010 University of Washington Artificial retina (Argus III) researchers develop non-invasive brain- developed by Lawrence computer interface (BCI) that allows a Livermore National Labs user to command humanoid robot October 2009 August 2009 Italian and Swedish Wicab develops device that lets scientists develop first blind “see" with their tongues artificial hand with feeling December 2009 Organovo 3D bio-printer prototype may June 2011 print human tissues and organs Texas Heart Institute develops “spinning” heart (no pulse, no April 2010 clogs, no breakdowns) Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston trialing artificial pancreas in 11 patients April 2010 Scientists at Chicago’s Rush February 2010 University Medical Center find University of Michigan develops artificial foot possible cure for skin cancer to make it easier for amputees to walk Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Science Magazine, 2010