Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Way Forward for Europe


Published on

slides for a short talk at the Growth and Jobs Summit.


Published in: News & Politics
  • Be the first to comment

Way Forward for Europe

  1. 1. Way Forward for Europe Žiga Turk @Growth and Jobs Summit, Brussels, 12.3.2009
  2. 2. How about the future of Europe: Let's ask Google 2
  3. 3. Let's reinvent the continent § oops, sorry, the wrong continent! § lets set up a committee or two! § Reflection Group § Future of Lisbon Strategy 3
  4. 4. 2007 … in the good old times … § EU expansion, Euro a success § Lisbon Treaty on track/signed, institutional matters settled § economic upswing, in part attributed to the Lisbon Strategy § soft power Europe - leading global climate change agenda § Europe to lead the globalization 4
  5. 5. The sky was the limit § Mark Leonhard: quot;we will see the emergence of a New European Century. Not because Europe will run the world as an empire, but because the European way of doing things will have become the worldsquot;. § Jeremy Rifkin: quot;Much of the world is going dark, leaving many human beings without clear direction. The European Dream is a beacon of light in the troubled world.quot; § long term visions: a proposal for a group of wise men to think about the future of Europe § economic, social and environmental strategy: Lisbon strategy 3.0 5
  6. 6. Reflection Group § to identify the key issues and developments which the Union was likely to face and to analyze how these might be addressed. – strengthening and modernizing the European model of economic success and social responsibility, – enhancing the competitiveness of the EU, – the rule of law, – sustainable development as a fundamental objective of the European Union, – global stability, – migration, – energy and climate protection, – and the fight against global insecurity, international crime and terrorism. § particular attention should be given to ways of better reaching out to citizens and addressing their expectations and needs. § headed by former Spanish PM Felipe Gonzales § 6
  7. 7. Lisbon Strategy 2010-2020 § The European Council (March 2008) stresses that a continued EU-level commitment to – structural reforms and – sustainable development and – social cohesion § will be necessary after 2010 in order to lock in the progress achieved by the renewed Lisbon Strategy for growth and jobs. § The European Council therefore invites – the Commission, – the Council and – the National Lisbon coordinators § to start reflecting on the future of the Lisbon strategy in the post-2010 period. 7
  8. 8. 2009 Crises § institutional crisis – treaty stuck in Ireland § climate crisis – somehow forgotten, quot;temperatures flat since 2001, but warming will returnquot; § financial, then economic crisis, possible spillover to political crisis 8
  9. 9. The triggers and deeper reasons § triggers – many living over their means, – lack of information in the financial market, – regulation that did not compensate for that, – risk aversion and distribution, – market distortions, – poor decisions made in the financial sector § deeper reasons –… 9
  10. 10. 21th century structural shifts / undercurrents § shifting of center of gravity of global economy – after 500 years re-emergence of China as #1 economy § conceptual economy – quot;almost all of the real-value-added increases in our output reflect the embodiment of ideasquot; § peak oil and possible 3rd industrial revolution – 100 years since the 2nd (oil) § other scientific progress – biotech, medicine, genetics, nanotechnology 10
  11. 11. Perfect storm § structural shifts + crisis = § instability, discontinuity, future quot;not like the past but betterquot; any more § destructive questioning the proven patterns of the past (capitalism, markets, democracy, greed …) without offering workable alternatives § looking for silver bullets and utopian regressions: government control, protectionism, redistribution of wealth … 11
  12. 12. Threats and opportunities of the storm threats opportunities § not good for Europe § government interventions are – common market is the acceptable, even bedrock of European integration desirable § not good for business § weaknesses are at all! exposed § not good for doing § there is motive for long term strategies reform 12
  13. 13. Responses § tactical response: addressing the symptoms with stimuli, bailouts, confidence building, cheap oil … sooner or later they would get traction § strategic response: addressing the structural shifts, the weaknesses exposed by crisis – Asia, automation, abundance 13
  14. 14. The crisis of abundance § economy can stand still, § luddites: the end of because we can live work without new stuff for a § communists: Give year or more money to the poor that § fewer and fewer workers will spend it needed to make the stuff § environmentalists: we need Spend money to save the planet § snobs: Sell meaning, brand, content, design … not function 14
  15. 15. Crisis is deep § we will have to do a little bit of everything § conceptual economy – intellectual property rights or another pattern of innovation • quot;Should the law have protected Newton's and Leibniz's claims in the same way that we do those of owners of land?quot; – talent, human resources – innovation, creativity … culture, values 15
  16. 16. Conceptual economy, culture, values are a legacy of Europe … 16
  17. 17. … and Conceptual Economy is Europe's Game § the future is bright 17
  18. 18. In conclusion § the crisis is deep and serious, but this too will pass § there are plenty of challenges, big picture issues, stuff that matters (care for the people, care for the nature) § short term action must not play against long term structural shifts § build on what has been good and what has worked to create enormous prosperity, a long period of growth and peace § an EU reform strategy is welcome - Brussels can push for the right thing not for the popular thing § create mechanisms that turn good ideas into action 18
  19. 19. On a rough sea you must keep an eye on the horizon because the sky is the limit 19