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中国的人力资本的不均衡性

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清华大学中国经济社会数据中心HongBin Li教授根据大学入学考试成绩和毕业后的收入对比分析的报告。

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中国的人力资本的不均衡性

  1. 1. China’s Human Capital Inequality: Evidencefrom College Entrance Exams and Admissions Hongbin Li C.V. Starr Professor of Economics School of Economics and Management Tsinghua University
  2. 2. A Quiz猫-狗=2,狗-兔=3,兔+兔=6,问猫=?Cat-Dog=2, Dog-Rabbit=3, Rabbit+Rabbit=6, Cat=?This is a question from the entry exam for an elite primary school in Beijing!To get in, the 6-year old need to  Pass this exam  Have 300,000 RMB cash at hand  Have a connection to pay this cash 2
  3. 3. My Talk To measure inequality in human capital, by looking at what will happen to kids 12 years later, when they take the college entrance exam and in the job market of college graudates (if time permits), It has been extremely hard to measure educational inequality, due to the lack of data 3
  4. 4. China’s Education System 9 years of compulsory education • 6 years of primary school • 3 years of junior high school High school: 3 years • Sciences (physics, chemistry, biology, difficult math) • Arts/social sciences (geography, history, easy math) 4
  5. 5. College Entrance Exams (CEE) To get into college, most students need to take the College Entrance Exams (CEE) on June 7-9 • Math • Chinese • English • Composite (one of the two) –Sciences –arts/social sciences Fate-determining exams for Chinese 5
  6. 6. Applications and Admissions Before/after the exams (before/after scores known), students need to fill in their • college preferences in order • Major preferences in order Scores are known Admission • Based on scores • Each college sends an admission team to every province (where it has admission quotas) • The quotas and distribution are ultimately set by the Ministry of Education, but colleges have some freedom 6
  7. 7. Data: CEE Takers in 2003 The population of all CEE takers 6.2 million students in 2003 Information • Exam takers: high school name, location, hukou, birth date, gender, ethnicity, health status, repeating taker, science, scores of College Entrance Exams (CEE)…  Admissions: university name, major Could get access more years potentially 7
  8. 8. Applicants vs. Population Applicants vs. Population0.900 0.7920.8000.7000.600 0.5240.500 0.479 0.433 Population0.400 Applicants0.3000.200 0.106 0.0690.1000.000 Female Rural Minor
  9. 9. Supply of Higher Education Two categories of higher education • Colleges (2-3 years) • Universities (4 years) Universities • Elites: 985 universities (in May 1998, President Jiang’s speech: build world- class universities) • Good ones: 211 universities (21st century: invest in 100 universities) • Other universities 9
  10. 10. 985 Program Tier 1: to become top universities in the world • 2: Tsinghua University; Peking University • Funding: all from central government Tier 2: to become top universities in China, well known in the world • 10 universities • Funding: ½ from central, ½ from local Tier 3: to become well known universities in China and the world • 27 universities • Funding: ½ from central, ½ from local 10
  11. 11. Rate of Admission in 2003 Number of Number of Percent of the Type colleges students populationNot Admitted 0 1960199 0.316College 1123 2424147 0.391University 602 1365827 0.220211 Universities 76 284212 0.046985 Universities 29 138686 0.022Top 9 Universities 7 26672 0.004Top 2 Universities 2 6497 0.001Total 1839 6206240 1
  12. 12. CEE Scores: Total
  13. 13. Majors: Scores (985 Univ)
  14. 14. Educational Inequality Gender bias Urban (rural) bias Income bias Home bias 14
  15. 15. 性别差异——高考成绩 Percentile of CEE Scores: Female vs. Male 0.600 0.553 0.532 0.4970.504 0.507 0.491 0.476 0.500 0.460 0.400 0.300 Male Female 0.200 0.100 0.000 Total Grade Math Chinese English
  16. 16. Gender Bias  % of females among students in top 10%; top 5%; top 1% 16
  17. 17. Gender Bias Proportion of Female Admissions in Each Type0.500 0.469 0.453 0.433 0.4100.400 0.384 0.381 0.337 0.3350.3000.2000.1000.000 Not Admitted College University 211 univ 985 univ Top 9 Top 2
  18. 18. Educational Inequality Gender bias Urban (rural) bias Income bias Home bias 18
  19. 19. Hukou Bias (CEE Scores) Percentile of CEE Scores: Rural vs. Urban 0.520 0.515 0.513 0.512 0.512 0.510 0.506 0.505 0.500 0.495 0.493 0.490 Urban 0.490 0.489 Rural 0.485 0.484 0.480 0.475 0.470 0.465 Total Grade Math Chinese English
  20. 20. Hukou (urban) Bias
  21. 21. Hukou (urban) Bias Rates of Rural Students0.7000.600 0.574 0.524 0.524 0.4910.500 0.430 0.3860.400 0.2930.3000.200 0.1810.1000.000 Not College University 211 univ 985 univ Top 9 Top 2 Admitted
  22. 22. Educational Inequality Gender bias Urban (rural) bias Income bias Home bias 22
  23. 23. Income Bias Children from rich families  Repeat exam takers (only once a year)  Go to elite high schools 23
  24. 24. Repeating Exam Takers Percentile of Grade: Repeater vs. First-Timer 0.600 0.579 0.579 0.579 0.580 0.560 0.551 0.546 0.540 0.520 0.500 Not Repeat 0.487 0.485 0.477 0.477 0.476 Repeat 0.480 0.460 0.440 0.420 0.400 pctile_total pctile_math pctile_chi~e pctile_eng~h pctile_com~e
  25. 25. Income Bias Children from rich families  Repeat exam takers (only once a year)  Go to elite high schools 25
  26. 26. 1,000 1,200 200 400 600 800 Hainan 111 Ningxia 118 Qinghai 153 Guizhou 327 Tianjin 390 Jilin 401 Shanghai 403 Chongqing 426 Yunnan 427InnerMongolia 450 Gansu 473 Beijing 538 Guangxi 540 Xinjiang 552 Heilongjiang 617 schools Shaanxi 643 Jiangxi 655 Shanxi 656 Fujian 679 Zhejiang 685 Liaoning 728 Hubei 764 Shandong 792 HighNumber of High Schools in a Province Hebei 856 Anhui 899 Sichuan 1001 Jiangsu 1145 Hunan 1171 Henan Guangdong 1197 1203
  27. 27. High School Gini High school Gini coefficients for different level of colleges Eg: High school Gini for admission to Top-2 universities  Count the number of successful applicants of each high school  Calculate the Gini coefficients 27
  28. 28. High School Gini: # Admitted Type (inclusive) Gini Coefficient College 0.556 University 0.712 211 Universities 0.804 985 Universities 0.861 Top 9 Universities 0.929 Top 2 Universities 0.959
  29. 29. Admissions from Top High Schools Top 10% of Top 5% of Type high schools high schools College 0.365 0.222 University 0.510 0.318 211 Universities 0.664 0.456 985 Universities 0.764 0.565 Top 9 Universities 0.914 0.756 Top 2 Universities 1 0.858
  30. 30. Educational Inequality Gender bias Urban (rural) bias Income bias Home bias 30
  31. 31. Home Bias
  32. 32. Home Bias
  33. 33. Local Admissions of Each Type Percent of local Type (inclusive) admissions College 0.658 University 0.667 211 Universities 0.456 985 Universities 0.393 Top 9 Universities 0.388 Top 2 Universities 0.209
  34. 34. Ethnicity Difference: CEE Scores
  35. 35. Home Bias
  36. 36. Bottomline:Who have the best chance to enter an (elite) college?Rich, urban, boys from elite highschools located in “good” provinces 36
  37. 37. Inequality in the Job Market:Evidence from the Chinese College Student Survey (CCSS) New data!
  38. 38. Chinese College Student SurveyConducted by the China Data Center, Tsinghua UniversityAnnual survey of college students – 2010 – 2011National representative random sample – Final sample: 100 colleges – 2010 pretest sample: 19 colleges 38
  39. 39. Ownership Type: Ideal Jobs%4035 32.36 31.98302520 18.0415 11.4510 5 4.03 0.39 0 Private SOE Government Foreign Start Own Collective Business Source: Chinese College Students Survey 2010, Tsinghua CDC 2011-5-18 39
  40. 40. Ownership Type: Real%40 36.13 34.753530252015 10.23 9.6710 5 3.65 2.34 0 Private SOE Government Foreign Start Own Collective Business Source: Chinese College Students Survey 2010, Tsinghua CDC 2011-5-18 40
  41. 41. Monthly Wage of College Graduates by GPA or English ScoreYuan Yuan2300 23502250 23002200 22502150 22002100 21502050 21002000 20501950 20001900 High GPA Low GPA High CET4 Low CET4 Source: Chinese College Students Survey 2010, Tsinghua CDC 2011-5-18 41
  42. 42. Monthly Wage of College Graduates by Party Membership or Student LeaderYuan Yuan 2250 2250 2200 2200 2150 2150 2100 2100 2050 2050 2000 2000 Party member Non-member Student Leader Non-Leader Source: Chinese College Students Survey 2010, Tsinghua CDC 2011-5-18 42
  43. 43. Monthly Wage of College Graduates by Sex Yuan 2400 2350 2300 2250 2200 2150 2100 2050 2000 1950 1900 1850 1800 Female Male Source: Chinese College Students Survey 2010, Tsinghua CDC2011-5-18 43
  44. 44. Monthly Wage of College Graduates by Parental BackgroundYuan Yuan Yuan2700 2700 27002600 2600 26002500 2500 25002400 2400 24002300 2300 23002200 2200 22002100 2100 21002000 2000 2000 Cadre parent Other parents Parent college Parent below Rich Poor college Source: Chinese College Students Survey 2010, Tsinghua CDC 2011-5-18 44
  45. 45. Monthly Wage of College Graduates by University Quality Yuan 2600 2500 2400 2300 2200 2100 2000 1900 1800 985 211 Others Source: Chinese College Students Survey 2010, Tsinghua CDC2011-5-18 45
  46. 46. To Enter Primary School? Cat-Dog=2, Dog-Rabbit=3, Rabbit+Rabbit=6, Cat=? Answer: Cat=8 Another question: A group of children standing in a line; counting from the left, you are number 3; counting from the right, you are number 4. How many children are there? 46

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