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Materi seminar binus university idx

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Materi seminar binus university idx

  1. 1. Jakarta, May 2015 The Effect of US Dollar Reinforcement to Indonesia Capital Market
  2. 2. IDX Latest Highlights
  3. 3. - 600 1,200 1,800 2,400 3,000 3,600 4,200 4,800 5,400 Jakarta Composite Index and Capital Market Milestones 3 *) 22 May 2015 1992 – 22 May 2015 02-Jan-2013 New Trading Hours 4,254.816 1992 1993 1994 19961995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 30-Nov-2007 Consolidation of the SSX into JSX to become the IDX 2,688.332 6-Oct-2004 Launching of Stock Option 856.060 28-Mar-2002 Implementation of Remote Trading 481.775 9-Sep-2002 T+4 to T+3 Settlement 430.271 21-Jul-2000 Scriptless Trading 512.617 23-Dec-1997 Founding of KSEI 397.031 23-Jul-1997 Financial Crisis 718.189 6-Aug-1996 Founding of KPEI 554.790 24-Jul-1995 Merging process of SSX into Bursa Paralel Indonesia 509.532 22-May-1995 JATS 461.389 13-Jul-1992 Privatization of JSX 321.544 8-Oct-2008 Suspend Trading 1,451.669 7-Apr-2015 Highest Index 5,523.290 2-Mar-2009 JATS Next G 1,256.109 28-Oct-2008 Lowest Index in 2008 1,111.390 2010 2011 2012 2014 06-Jan-2014 New Lot Size & Tick Size 4,202.809 2013 2015* Source: IDX
  4. 4. Jakarta Composite Index : Annual Return 4 Source: IDX 1000.233 1162.635 1805.523 2745.826 1355.408 2,534.356 3,703.512 3821.992 4316.687 4,274.177 5,226.947 5,315.153 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 55.30% 52.08% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 86.98% -50.64% 3.20% 2010 2011 *) 22 May 2015 44.56% 16.24% 2012 46.13% 12.94% 2013 2004 – 22 May 2015 -0.98% 2014 22.29% 2015* 1.69%
  5. 5. 5 Average Daily Trading and Market Capitalization *) 22 May 2015 Volume (in Million Share) Value (in IDR Billion) Frequency (in Times) Market Capitalization ( in IDR Trillion) 3,283 6,090 5,432 4,873 4,284 5,503 5,484 6,491 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 4,436 4,046 4,801 4,953 4,537 6,238 6,006 6,633 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 55,905 87,040 105,790 113,454 121,712 153,686 212,635 228,146 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 1,076 2,019 3,247 3,537 4,127 4,219 5,228 5,363 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* Source: IDX
  6. 6. Market Capitalization and Trading Value By Industry 6 Total Market Capitalization as of 22 May 2015 : IDR 5.363 Trillion Source: IDX 4.6% 6.1% 6.9% 6.3% 6.8%15.9% 13.3% 22.7% 17.4% 3.0% 4.5% 6.2% 7.0% 20.5% 7.1% 12.7% 25.6% 13.4% Agriculture (21) Mining (41) Basic Industry And Chemicals (65) Miscellaneous Industry (41) Consumer Goods Industry (37) Property And Real Estate (55) Infrastructure, Utilities & Transportation (52) Finance (87) Trade, Services & Investment (114) Market Capitalization Trading Value 22 May 2015
  7. 7. [S] Sharia Compliant Stock Top 20 in Market Capitalization 7 Source: IDX Market Capitalization (in Trillion Rp) 1. BBCA Bank Central Asia Tbk. 350.26 6.53 2. UNVR Unilever Indonesia Tbk. [S] 334.00 6.23 3. HMSP HM Sampoerna Tbk. 317.55 5.92 4. BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 307.72 5.74 5. ASII Astra International Tbk. [S] 306.66 5.72 6. TLKM Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. [S] 289.30 5.39 7. BMRI Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. 263.92 4.92 8. BBNI Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 130.62 2.44 9. PGAS Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk. [S] 101.81 1.90 10. GGRM Gudang Garam Tbk. 90.58 1.69 11. UNTR United Tractors Tbk. [S] 86.82 1.62 12. KLBF Kalbe Farma Tbk. [S] 86.25 1.61 13. INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. [S] 82.55 1.54 14. ICBP Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk. [S] 81.20 1.51 15. SMGR Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. [S] 77.85 1.45 16. EMTK Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk. 64.72 1.21 17. INDF Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk. [S] 60.37 1.13 18. CPIN Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk. [S] 52.56 0.98 19. LPPF Matahari Department Store Tbk. 51.21 0.95 20. JSMR Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk. 44.71 0.83 3,180.65 59.31 5,363.00 % Market Capitalization of The 20 Stocks Total IDX No. Code Company 22 May 2015
  8. 8. 8 Agriculture Mining Miscellaneous Industry Consumer Goods Industry Property, Real Estate And Building Construction Basic Industry and Chemical Infrastructure, Utilities, & Transportation Finance Trade, Services & Investment 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Comparative Return by Industry Dec 2010 = 100 Source: IDX
  9. 9. Currently, foreign investor still own a majority stake at Indonesia Stock Exchange Distributions of Tradeable Stocks* 9 As of April 2015 Source: KSEI *) Scriptless Securities Domestic Investor Value: IDR 1,055.58 Tn Percentage: 35.18% Foreign Investor Value : IDR 1,852.83 Tn Percentage : 64,82% Individual Institution Others • Value : IDR 172.8 Tn • Percentage : 17.18% • Value : IDR 826.63 Tn • Percentage : 82.40% • Value : IDR 4.15 Tn • Percentage : 0.41% Individual Institution Others • Value : IDR 16.31 Tn • Percentage : 0.88% • Value : IDR 1,250.6 Tn • Percentage : 67.5% • Value : IDR 585.93 • Percentage : 31.62%
  10. 10. The Effect of US Dollar Reinforcement To Indonesia Capital Market
  11. 11. JCI and IDR : Trend Comparison 11 Source: Bloomberg • The rupiah has fallen by more than 5% this year, a contrasting performance compared to the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) which achieved highest level in April, 7Th 2015 at 5,523.29. • Unexpectedly, JCI dropped 7.9% from its highest level to 5,086.43 in the end of April. • Nevertheless, JCI ready to rebound gradually after tumbling 400 points. 5,313.21 13,150 11,800 12,000 12,200 12,400 12,600 12,800 13,000 13,200 13,400 4,600 4,700 4,800 4,900 5,000 5,100 5,200 5,300 5,400 5,500 5,600 2-Jan 8-Jan 14-Jan 20-Jan 26-Jan 1-Feb 7-Feb 13-Feb 19-Feb 25-Feb 3-Mar 9-Mar 15-Mar 21-Mar 27-Mar 2-Apr 8-Apr 14-Apr 20-Apr 26-Apr 2-May 8-May 14-May 20-May IHSG (LHS) IDR/USD (RHS)
  12. 12. What happened to JCI in recent weeks ? Company financial performance was below expectation 12 Q1-2014 Q1-2015 Q1-2014 Q1-2015 BBRI PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk 5.93 6.14 16.7% 3.5% BMRI PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 4.92 5.14 14.4% 4.3% BBCA PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 3.70 4.10 28.0% 10.8% ASII PT Astra International Tbk 4.73 3.99 9.7% -15.6% TLKM PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk 3.65 3.81 4.9% 4.4% UNVR PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk 1.36 1.59 -4.9% 16.9% HMSP PT HM Sampoerna Tbk 2.75 2.89 5.4% 5.1% BBNI PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk 2.39 2.82 15.6% 17.7% PGAS PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk 2.09 1.40 -18.7% -32.9% GGRM PT Gudang Garam Tbk 1.42 1.28 35.3% -9.6% INDF PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk 1.37 0.87 89.8% -36.5% SMGR PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk 1.30 1.19 4.8% -8.5% ICBP PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk 0.69 0.80 7.0% 15.7% AALI PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk 0.78 0.16 120% -80.0% KLBF PT Kalbe Farma Tbk 0.49 0.53 11% 7.1% * earning growth down, up or slowed compared to previous quarter Companies Quarterly Earning (Rp Trillion) Earning Growth (%) Code Changes* Source: IDX
  13. 13. 5.14 5.03 4.92 5.01 4.71 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % YoY Weak companies performance was also translated into economic slowdown in the Q1-2015 13 Source: Statistics Indonesia Average Indonesia economic growth for 10 years is 5.73% “Indonesia is one of only few countries survive Global Economic Slowdown in 2008-9 without falling into a recession”  Indonesia economy in the first quarter 2015 is recorded 4.71% (yoy) or lower than previous quarter at 5.01% (yoy) and analyst forecast at 4.94%. This is the slowest economic growth since Q3-2009 or during the global financial crisis.  Almost all sectors point to flat- to-lower growth. The main driver was mining sector as it contracted 2.32% yoy in 1Q15 from 2.22% yoy in 4Q14 particularly caused by coal  Other sectors contributing to growth slowdown were wholesale & retail trade, manufacturing, and construction  Furthermore, economic slowdown also contributed by weak government expenditure & investment activities
  14. 14. -11.49 -8.95 -7.71 -7.04 -6.60 -5.58 -5.55 -5.50 -4.81 -4.65 -3.11 -2.89 -2.55 -1.88 -1.52 -0.96 -0.70 -0.27 0.03 0.14 0.29 0.58 3.62 21.77 Brazilian Real Turkish Lira Bulgarian Lev Romanian Leu Czech Koruna Indonesian Rupiah Argentine Peso Peruvian New Sol Colombian Peso Hungarian Forint Polish Zloty Malaysian Ringgit Mexican Peso South African Rand Thai Baht Indian Rupee Singapore Dollar South Korean Won Hong Kong Dollar Chinese Renminbi Chilean Peso Philippine Peso Taiwanese Dollar Russian Ruble 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Indonesia economic slowdown was overshadowed by the trend of US dollar appreciation 14 Source: Bloomberg Currency changes against US Dollar 31 Dec 2014 – 21 May 2015 (%) US Dollar Index* Movement USD has appreciated around 19.4% against world's major currencies since early 2013 *) The US Dollar Index is an index that measures the relative value of the US dollar against a basket of currencies of major countries include Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), Poundsterling (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK), and Swiss Franc (CHF) Average US Dollar Index Dec 2012-21 May 2015 : 84.2 +19.4%
  15. 15. How is the impact on Indonesia capital market ? (1/2) Rupiah depreciation provides additional risk to foreign investor 15 Source: Bloomberg 143.2 97.56 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 JCI in IDR (Domestic Investor) JCI in USD (Foreign Investor) Dec 2010 = 100
  16. 16. 16 Source: IDX How is the impact on Indonesia capital market ? (2/2) Rupiah depreciation has raised concern on recent capital outflow Figures in Billion Rupiah 5,695 11,242 1,828 722 (356) (20,132) (2,480) (5,695) (365) (1,981) (3,859) (5,266) 2,330 7,817 14,476 8,672 8,089 2,738 13,070 (1,317) (7,402) (3,202) 5,281 (7,954) 212 10,608 (5,426) 5,896 (3,018) 2011 2012 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 24,290 15,881 (20,647) 42,598 8,272
  17. 17. Going forward, volatility in the financial sectors are still in place Markets are assessing the Fed policy on potential rate hikes – Fed Fund Rate (timing, size, & pace) 17 Source: Bloomberg, Fed minutes 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Fed Fund Rate “The Fed had raised FFR up to 400 bps before The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis” • In the latest FOMC meeting, majority of members has reduced the FFR projection in 2015 to 0.625 %, lower than previous projection of 1.125%. • Meanwhile, FFR projection in 2016 is also lowered to 1.875% compared to the previous projection of 2.5%. %
  18. 18. The increase in FFR will lift the short term volatility in the stock market 18 The period in which The Fed start to reduce its assets purchase program and raising the plan to increase FFR
  19. 19. While The Fed plans to tighten its monetary policy, ECB and BoJ tend to expand their stimulus programs 19 Other Central Banks European Central Bank (ECB) Bank of Japan (BOJ) • €1,1 trillion in total stimulus by purchasing €60 billion of bonds per month, with the programme set to run until Sept. 2016 • Lowering interest rates ‒ Main refinancing operations 0.05% ‒ Deposit facility -0.2% ‒ Lending facility 0.3% • The BoJ expand annual JGB purchases to 80 trillion yen, from 50 trillion yen currently, and extend the duration of bonds it holds to about 7-10 years • Fixed interest rate at 0.1% • People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut interest rates for the third time in six months amid a worse-than-expected economic slowdown • Swiss National Bank (SNB) discontinued the minimum exchange rate (Swiss Franc against Euro) and cut interest rates to negative level • Central Bank of India and Korea also started to cut their rates Source : various sources
  20. 20. As ECB and BoJ move to greater stimulus, increase in global liquidity is expected to drive sentiment higher 20 (CentralBankbalance sheetas%ofGDP) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Japan Eurozone Average US BoJ to buy JGBs at an annual rate of ¥80 tn (USD705 bn) Projection ECB to start simulus amounting USD1,2 trillion until September 2016 Source : Eastpring Investment, Bloomberg Global Liquidity Projection in 2015 Index Return (Jan 2015 - 21 May 2015) 1.13% 1.65% 1.91% 1.92% 2.22% 2.60% 3.49% 5.10% 6.81% 8.36% 10.82% 15.77% 16.60% 20.45% 21.00% 40.03% India : BSE Sensex 30 Indonesia: IHSG Thailand : SET Index Malaysia: FTSE Bursa Malaysia Singapore: Straits Times US: Dow Jones US: S&P500 Australia : All Ordinaries UK : FT100 Philippines : PSE Index South Korea: KOSPI Japan: Nikkei 225 Hong Kong: Hang Seng France : CAC 40 Germany : DAX China: Shanghai
  21. 21. IDX Future Prospects And Challenges
  22. 22. Despite the potential pressure in the stock market, the prospects for Indonesia economy is predicted to remain solid 22 Consuming Class population estimation by 2030 Million People1 Supported by the fact that most of the population is in the productive age and it is expected to increase ... ... along with the increasing numbers of people that would join Indonesia’s consuming class 40 2010 20203 2030 in 5-6% GDP Scenario 2030 in 7% GDP Scenario 240 265 280 280 Indonesia Population Pyramid 2010 Indonesia Census 1) Rounded to the nearest five million 2) Consuming class defined as individuals with an annual net income of above $3.600 at 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP) 3) Based on annual GDP growth of between 5 %and 6% Population Median Age: 29 year Supported by young and productive ages population 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+ 12,000 8,000 4,000 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95+ Woman Man ProductiveAge Below Consuming Class Consuming Class2 Population Additional people in the consuming class 90 125 Source: McKinsey
  23. 23. Low penetration in Indonesia capital market (1/2) Indonesia is the largest economy in South East Asia, about the size of Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore combined 23 Number of Investor Account (2013) Number of Listed Companies (2013) 0,2% from 240 mn population 15,2% from 29 mn population 1,5% from 68 mn population 0,6% from 98 mn population 30% from 5,4 mn population 408,045 4,400,000 974,851 585,562 1,630,000 Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Singapore 483 911 584 257 776 Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Philippines Singapore Sources: IDX Annual report 2013, BM Annual report 2013, SET Annual report 2013, PSE Academy, SGX Annual Report 2013
  24. 24. 24 267% 153% 107% 59% 92% 89% 68% 49% 30% 250% 160% 92% 93% 80% 91% 61% 40% 26% 245% 136% 113% 92% 90% 87% 76% 49% 38% Singapore Malaysia Thailand Japan Philippine Australian India Indonesia China 2012 2013 2014 Source : World Economic Outlook & IMF Low penetration in Indonesia capital market (2/2) Indonesia market has large room for growth
  25. 25. 25 Potential Challenges for Indonesia Capital Market • Supply  To increase number of issuers  Developing new product • Demand  To increase number of domestic investors  Improving public awareness about investment in capital market • Infrastructure & Technology  To provide high capacity of trading and surveillance system • Increased HR/Professional in Capital Market  The Regulatory & Supervision Function (OJK, IDX, KPEI, KSEI)  The Capital Market Supporting Profession (Brokerages, Fund Managers, Underwriters, Auditors, Bank Custody, etc) 1 2 3 4
  26. 26. 26 Thank you

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