Business Research: Mithai (Sweets) Demand & Consumption
Consumption Pattern of Mithai (Sweets) Team : Gartner Samir Saleem Muhammad Suhaib Umme Ammara Zeeshan Valliani
ConceptMithai has established itself as a symbol of socialevent celebrations.Eid, Divali, Navroz, Child birth,Weddings, Promotion,Victory etc
Problem Statement ‘Study the impact of Occasions and events on the consumption pattern of Mithai.’
Research Objective Whether the consumption of mithai increases or not during occasions Whether per person consumption rises during occasions To know whether people prefer mithai over other desserts/ sweets and confectionaries. Whether people associate mithai with the specific occasion Do people associate quality of mithai with the brand name
PropositionThe strong bond between traditions/customs/festivities andMITHAI (sweets) has a huge positive impact on the‘Consumption Pattern’ of Mithai.
Hypothesis Let ‘x’ be the (population) proportion of people who eat mithai (off-occasion). Ho’ : During social occasions and events, the proportion of people who eat mithai raises by 80% or higher. p >= 1.8 * x H1’ : During social occasions and events, the proportion of people who eat mithai doesn’t raise by 80%. p < 1.8 *x• Let ‘y’ be the mean consumption of mithai per person (off-occasion).• Ho’’ : During social occasions and events, the mean consumption of mithai per person raises by 40% or higher. u >= 1.4 * y (unit)• H1’’ : During social occasions and events, the mean consumption of mithai per person doesn’t raise by 40% u < 1.4 * y (unit)
Research Methodology Research Design Exploratory: Market Survey Descriptive: Questionnaire Data Source Primary Data: Personal Interviews and Questionnaire Secondary Data: Census published by Government of Pakistan Research Approaches Quantitative Research Instruments Questionnaire, Personal interviews
Sampling Plan Population of Karachi Sample size 21,142,625 Estd (2012) 236 Source: Census Bureau Sampling procedure Sampling Unit Simple Random Any one living in Karachi Convenience Sampling Sampling Frame Contact Method Mithai shoppers of Personal Visit to mithai shops Bahadurabad Gulshan and Questionnaire distribution Gulistan-e-Johar, Friends & Family, Colleagues Online Survey form
Sample Size, Confidence Interval and Margin of ErrorThe sample we gathered was n = 236, plugging it into the above systemwe determined the margin of error i.e. E = 6.4%.Taking Confidence interval of 95%.http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm
Target Segments Age Social Class All Ages All Gender Lifestyle Male & Female Educated, Urban, Traditional, Rural Occupation Employed, Self Employed and RetiredDemographics Psychographic
Target Segments (Cont’d) Benefits sought Income Convenience, Quality, Availability, Taste etc. Lower, Middle and Upper income groups Occasions Religious events (e.g. Eid, Diwali, ramadan) Family events (e.g. Marriage, Engagement, Birthdays, Childs birth, New Home) Professional events (e.g. Promotion) Other (e.g. Cricket team victory)Behavioral Socio Economic
EXPLORATORY RESEARCHMarket Survey – As Pilot StudyPlaceBahadurabad MarketOccasionRamadan (first week) @ 4 pmRespondentsTotal Respondents : 20Total Shops : 6
EXPLORATORY RESEARCH (Cont’d)Summary Most customers, think purchase and consumption increase during occasions and events Most customers, will buy mithai from the specific brand they like Most customers, buy mix mithai Most shopkeepers, think Biggest player is Dil Pasand Most customers, think Chocolates cannot compete with mithai Some customers, think that chocolate promotions does have small impact on mithai market Customers On an average will buy 1.5Kg Mithai for 10 people. Most of the buyers, were male Many customers, think quality of Mithai matters Among the shops we visited, United King was the most crowded shop with customers. Off-occasion: on-occasion frequency ratio is 1 : 3.5 As per the shop keepers, most frequently customers purchase 1Kg Box
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH –Questionnaire DesignQuestionnaire covered following domains Geographic and Demographic Behavior and Psychology Consumption and Purchase Brand Loyalty Availability and Convenience Decision Making
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH - Analysis 1 -BehaviorOver 90% people think mithai adds valueto social events and celebration.
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH - Analysis 2 –Consumption QuantityProbable per person consumption peroccasion = 165 gms(using weighted avg of quantity for thosewho consider number of people)
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH - Analysis 3 –Purchase FrequencyWeighted Freq of Purchase Off-occasion(per month) = 1.28
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH - Analysis 4 –Purchase FrequencyWeighted Freq of Purchase On-occasion (permonth) = 2.95Percentage Increase in purchase frequencyduring occasions = 130.5Hence, Percentage Increase in people whoconsume mithai [Proves Hypothesis 1] = 130.5[Considering every purchase is made for mutuallyexclusive audience]
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH - Analysis 5 –Consumption FrequencyWeighted Freq of Consumption Off-occasion (per month) = 1.36
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH - Analysis 6 –Consumption FrequencyWeighted Freq of Consumption On-occasion (per month) = 2.09Increase in consumption during occasions (percentage increase) =53.68Consumption quantity per month: Off-occasion = 224.4Consumption quantity per month: On-occasion = 344.85Increase in consumption volume during occasions (percentageincrease) [Proves Hypothesis 2] = 53.68Increases in consumption frequency and consumption volume aredirectly proportional and rise with equal proportions keeping thevolume consumed per time constant
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH - Analysis 7 -ConsumptionNo direct relation between income andconsumptionMithai consumption is need/event basedand people with all income groups buy itduring occasions and events.
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH - Analysis 8 –Market ShareUnited King, Dil Pasand, Rehmat-e-Shereen and Dacca Hold majority of themarket share (%) = 59.35
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH - Analysis 9 –Market Size (Volume, Value)41% of the population of Karachi is the ‘market size by people’i.e. (Total Population – Below 15 Population)*0.41Market size by people = 21142625*0.41 = 8,668,476 peopleMarket size by people * weighted frequency of consumption*quantity per consumption = market size by volumeMarket size by Volume(per month on occasion) = 8668476 * 2.09 *0.165 = 2,989,324 Kg/monthMarket size by volume(Kg) * Avg Kg Cost = market size by valueMarket size by Value (per month) = 2989324 * 500 =1,494,662,000PKR i.e. approx. 150 Billion PKR Per month.
RISKS AND CONSTRAINTS A lot of sample units were selected based on convenience, so there is high probability of sampling-bias. The inferences developed from ‘urban sample’ have been generalized on rural population as well. The age group 36 and above lacks proper representation in the sample.
Conclusion Hypothesis 1 holds true:Ho’: p >= 1.8(x)Where x is off-occasion population proportion ofconsumers.Population proportion increases by 130% Hypothesis 2 holds true;Ho’’: u >= 1.4(y)Where y is off-occasion mean consumption per consumer.Mean per person consumption increases by 53%