ICT Enablement of Low                                           利用ICT技术创建低碳城市    Carbon Cities                     3 Decem...
Executive summary                         执行摘要• China’s cities account for          中国碳排放中城市排放占主体,  the majority of China’...
Cities account for most of the world’s GHG emissions             全球温室气体排放中城市排放占主体                                       % ...
Most emissions in cities from buildings and transport               城市排放主要来自建筑及交通部门Case Study: New York City              ...
China’s cities will play an even greater role in the future          中国城市在未来排放趋势中的作用将日趋重要             China’s urban popula...
Executive summary                         执行总结• China’s cities account for the      • 中国碳排放中城市排放占主体,  majority of China’s ...
ICT value add will contribute 7.2% to GDP by 2020                 2020年ICT产业将创造7.2%的GDP                                   ...
China lags developed countries in Networked Readiness          中国在网络就绪度方面落后于发达国家                                          ...
ICT drives growth, especially in emerging economies   ICT产业可驱动经济增长,尤其是在新兴经济体国家                        % increase in econom...
Executive summary                         执行总结• China’s cities account for the      中国碳排放中城市排放占主体,  majority of China’s em...
ICT-enabled emission reductions from five areas                           利用5种ICT技术实现减排       SMART                       ...
ICT could enable 1.4-1.7 Gt CO2e reductions by 2020  2020年ICT技术可帮助实现减排1.4-1.7总吨二氧化碳            Emission reductions from IC...
Smart buildings could reduce 2020 emissions by 328Mt       2020年智能建筑可实现减排3.28亿吨二氧化碳                      Emission reductio...
Smart logistics could reduce 2020 emissions by 274Mt     2020年智能物流可实现减排2.74亿吨二氧化碳                   Emission reductions fr...
ICT can contribute 13-18% of emission intensity target     利用ICT技术可帮助实现13-18%的强度减排目标            China emissions intensity ...
ICT sector emissions decrease faster than economy               ICT部门在整个经济体中减排速度最快             Overall China economy      ...
Conclusion                              结论• China’s cities account for the      中国碳排放中城市排放占主体,  majority of China’s emissi...
Thank-you!                                         谢谢!                3 December 2010 Jon Kornik                          ...
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DESC: ICT Enablement of Low Carbon Cities

  1. 1. ICT Enablement of Low 利用ICT技术创建低碳城市 Carbon Cities 3 December 2010 Jon Kornik Jon Kornik December 2010 Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net 2010年12月
  2. 2. Executive summary 执行摘要• China’s cities account for 中国碳排放中城市排放占主体, the majority of China’s 未来几十年还将持续增长 emissions and are expected to see strong continued growth in coming decades• ICT can help unlock growth 利用ICT技术可以遏制增长势头 potential• ICT can also play a major role 利用ICT技术还可实现整个经济 in enabling emission 体尤其是城市地区的减排 reductions across the economy and particularly in cities Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  3. 3. Cities account for most of the world’s GHG emissions 全球温室气体排放中城市排放占主体 % attributable to cities % 城市排放贡献率 World population 世界人口 50 China population 中国人口 44 Energy consumption 60 80 能源消费 Global GHG emissions 60 80 全球温室气体排放Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators 2009; Kamal-Chaoui, Lamia and Alexis Robert (eds.) (2009), “Competitive Cities and Climate Change”,OECD, Regional Development Working Papers N° 2, 2009, OECD publishing, © OECD; C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group; team analysis Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  4. 4. Most emissions in cities from buildings and transport 城市排放主要来自建筑及交通部门Case Study: New York City 案例研究:纽约Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Percent 温室气体排放源, 百分比 Street lights Industrial 街道照明 工业 Vehicles Institutional Waste* 车辆 机构 废物 Transport Commercial 交通 商业 Municipality 市政 Buildings Buildings (mainly energy) 建筑物 Residential 建筑物 (主要为能源消耗) 居住区•In New York City approximately 75% of landfill gas is captured and utilized. For the purposes of this analysis, it has beenassumed that all of this methane is released into the atmosphere to make it more comparable with China• 纽约市约有75%的废气被回收利用。在本报告分析中假设这一部分废气被排放到大气中,这样可以方便与中国的数据相比较。Source: Inventory of New York City Greenhouse Gas Emissions, April 2007数据来源:纽约市温室气体排放清单,2007年4月 Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  5. 5. China’s cities will play an even greater role in the future 中国城市在未来排放趋势中的作用将日趋重要 China’s urban population, % of total 中国城市人口数量,占人口总数百分比 • 53% by 2020 and 60% by 203070 • 2020年将占53%,2030年约60%60 • 350 million more people by 2020 • 2020年城市人口总数将达3.5亿5040 • 50,000 new high rise buildings and 170 mass transit systems30 • 需要新建5万座高层建筑和170套 公共运输系统20 • Low carbon design to avoid lock-10 in • 需用采用低碳设计防止锁定效应 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 (E) (E) Source: Guardian Datastore, http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/aug/18/percentage-population-living-cities, last visited December 14, 2010; UNDP/Renmin World Development Report China Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  6. 6. Executive summary 执行总结• China’s cities account for the • 中国碳排放中城市排放占主体, majority of China’s emissions 未来几十年还将持续增长 and are expected to see strong continued growth in coming decades• ICT can help unlock growth • 利用ICT技术可以遏制增长势 potential 头• ICT can also play a major role • 利用ICT技术还可实现整个经 in enabling emission 济体尤其是城市地区的减排 reductions across the economy and particularly in cities Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  7. 7. ICT value add will contribute 7.2% to GDP by 2020 2020年ICT产业将创造7.2%的GDP China ICT added value, 100M RMB % of GDP XX 中国ICT产业创造的价值, 1亿人民币 占GDP百分比 7.260,000 59,537 4.2 4.0 11,459 9,94810,000 3.9 3.6 8,155 3.2 6,701 2.6 5,193 5,000 2.3 2.2 3,544 2,372 2,715 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (E) … 2020 (E)Note: 2020 figure estimated based on current % of ICT value added/GDP in USSource: NBS & MIIT from CCID Consulting, Jan 2009 Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  8. 8. China lags developed countries in Networked Readiness 中国在网络就绪度方面落后于发达国家 Networked Readiness Index score 网络就绪度指数Score includes: Trinidad & Tobago Sweden指标包括: High 特立尼达及多巴哥 瑞典 3.60 4.72 5.65 高• Enabling environment USA• 应用环境 Suriname Malaysia 美国 苏里南 马来西亚 Upper middle 2.92 3.65 4.65• Stakeholder 中等偏上 enablement• 利益相关者普及程度 Bolivia China Lower middle 玻利维亚 中国• Stakeholder usage 2.68 3.41 4.31 中等偏下• 利益相关者使用情况 India Chad 印度 Low 乍得 2.57 3.12 3.87 Lesotho 低 莱索托 Source: Global Information Technology Report, 2009-2010, 2010 World Economic Forum; team analysis Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  9. 9. ICT drives growth, especially in emerging economies ICT产业可驱动经济增长,尤其是在新兴经济体国家 % increase in economic growth per 10% increase in penetration 技术投入每增加10%可产生的经济产值增长百分比 High income countries 高收入国家 1.38 Low and middle income countries 1.21 中低收入国家 1.12 0.81 0.77 0.73 0.60 0.43 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband 固定 移动 互联网 宽带Source: World Bank, “Information and Communications for Development”, 2009 from Qiang, Christine, “Telecommunications and EconomicGrowth”, unpublished paper, World Bank, 2008 Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  10. 10. Executive summary 执行总结• China’s cities account for the 中国碳排放中城市排放占主体, majority of China’s emissions 未来几十年还将持续增长 and are expected to see strong continued growth in coming decades• ICT can help unlock growth potential 利用ICT技术可以遏制增长势头• ICT can also play a major 利用ICT技术还可实现整个经济 role in enabling emission 体尤其是城市地区的减排 reductions across the economy and particularly in cities Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  11. 11. ICT-enabled emission reductions from five areas 利用5种ICT技术实现减排 SMART Demate- SMART buildings SMART motors SMART logistics grids rialization 智能电网 智能建筑 智能电机 智能物流 非物质化• Reduce T&D losses • Improved building design for • Optimization of • Optimization of logistics • E-commerce• 减少输配电损失 energy efficiency variable speed motor network • 电子商务• Reduce consumption • 提高建筑节能设计 systems • 物流网络优化 • E-paper • Reduced building space through user info • 可变速电机系统优化 • Intermodal shift 水陆联运 • 电子文档• 通过掌握用户信息降低 through design • ICT driven automation • Reduction in inventory • Video-conferencing 耗电 • 建筑空间节约设计 in key industrial • 减少库存 processes • 视频会议• Integration of • Building MS 建材 • Optimization of truck renewables • 利用ICT技术实现关键 • Telecommuting • HVAC automation itinerary 汽车运输路线优化• 综合利用再生能源 工艺自动化 • 电子通信 • HVAC自动化 • Eco-driving 环保驾驶• Efficient generation of • Lighting automation • Maximization of ship load power, combined heat factor 运输荷载因子最大化 and power • 照明自动化 • Ventilation on demand 通风 • Optimization of ship• 提高发电效率,利用热 operations 装运操作优化 电联产 • Intelligent commissioning • Minimization of packaging • 智能调试 减少包装 • Benchmarking and building • Optimize truck route recommissioning planning • 基准化和建筑再调试 • 汽车运输路线设计优化 • Voltage optimization 电压优化 Source: Smart2020; team analysis Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  12. 12. ICT could enable 1.4-1.7 Gt CO2e reductions by 2020 2020年ICT技术可帮助实现减排1.4-1.7总吨二氧化碳 Emission reductions from ICT enablement in China in 2020, MtCO2e 2020年利用ICT技术实现减排能力, 百万吨二氧化碳当量 Smart Grids 481 智能电网 Smart Buildings 328 智能建筑 Smart Motors 286 智能电机 Smart Logistics 274 智能物流 Dematerialization 167 非物质化 Total 1,536 合计 1,382 1,689Source: Smart2020; team analysis Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  13. 13. Smart buildings could reduce 2020 emissions by 328Mt 2020年智能建筑可实现减排3.28亿吨二氧化碳 Emission reductions from Smart Buildings, 100% = 328MtCO2e 智能建筑减排能力, 100% = 3.28亿吨二氧化碳当量 Improved building for for Improved building designImproved building design design for energy efficiency Improved building design for 提高建筑节能设计 energy efficiencyenergy efficiency 2% energy efficiency 3%4% 3% 2% Buildingmanagement systems management systems 4% Building management systemsBuilding management systems Building 建筑管理系统 7% 7% 1% 1% Voltageoptimization Voltage optimizationVoltage optimization 电压优化 Voltage optimization 7% 7% HVAC automation HVAC automationHVAC automation 49% HVAC automation HVAC自动化 49% Reduced space through Reduced space throughReduced space through building design 13% 13% Reduced space through 建筑空间节约设计 building designbuilding design building design Benchmarking and building Benchmarking and buildingBenchmarking and building commissioning Benchmarking and building 基准化和建筑调试 commissioningcommissioning commissioning 14% 14% Lightingautomation Lighting automationLighting automation 照明自动化 Lighting automation Source: Smart2020; team analysis Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  14. 14. Smart logistics could reduce 2020 emissions by 274Mt 2020年智能物流可实现减排2.74亿吨二氧化碳 Emission reductions from Smart Logistics, 100% = 274MtCO2e 智能物流减排能力, 100% = 2.74亿吨二氧化碳当量 Eco-driving Eco-driving 环保驾驶 Eco-driving Improved building design for Eco-driving Improved building design for Optimization of logistics energy efficiency 4% 1% energy efficiency Optimization of logistics 4% 1% 3% 2% Optimization of logistics 物流网络优化 network 9% 4% Optimization of logistics network Building management systems 9% networkmanagement systems Building Optimization of truck delivery network Optimization of truck delivery 7% Optimization of truck delivery 汽车运输路线设计优化 truck delive planning Optimization of planning 1% planning Voltage optimization 38% planning Voltage optimization 减少库存 Reduction in inventory Reduction in inventory 10% 38% Reduction in inventory 10% 7% Reduction in inventory HVAC automation Minimization packaging Minimization of of packaging 49% HVAC automation 减少包装 Minimization of packaging Minimization of packaging Road congestion avoidance Road congestion avoidance 避免交通拥堵 Road congestion avoidance Reduced space through 13% Reduced space through Road congestion avoidance building design 17% building design Intermodal shift Intermodal shift 17% 水陆联运 Intermodal shift Benchmarking and building Intermodal shift Benchmarking and building Maximization of ship load commissioning ship load factor commissioning ship load factor Maximization of 14% Maximization of 运输荷载因子优化 of ship load f factor 21% Maximization Lighting automation Optimization of ship 21% Lighting automation Optimization of ship operations operations Optimization of ship operations 装运操作优化Optimization of ship operatSource: Smart2020; team analysis Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  15. 15. ICT can contribute 13-18% of emission intensity target 利用ICT技术可帮助实现13-18%的强度减排目标 China emissions intensity target trajectory ICT contribution to intensity reduction 中国的强度减排目标 ICT技术对强度减排的贡献率40% intensity reduction 40% 强度减排 45% intensity reduction 45% 强度减排tCO2e/RMBm GDP 吨二氧化碳/GDP(百万人民币) tCO2e/RMBm GDP 吨二氧化碳/GDP(百万人民币)14,000 14,00012,000 12,000 -40% -45%10,000 10,000 15.2 – 8,000 18.5% 8,000 13.5 – 16.5% 6,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 0 0 2005 2020 2005 2020Assumes constant exchange rate over time of RMB6.83/USDSource: CEIC Database; “China’s Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050 – Scenario Analysis of Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions” – by EnergyResearch Institute of NDRC; Smart2020, team analysis Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  16. 16. ICT sector emissions decrease faster than economy ICT部门在整个经济体中减排速度最快 Overall China economy China ICT sector 中国经济体 中国ICT部门 ICT部门排放强度 China emissions intensity 中国的排放强度 ICT emissions intensity 吨二氧化碳/经济产值增长 (百万人民币) tCO2e/RMBm GDP 吨二氧化碳/GDP(百万人民币) tCO2e/RMBm value add14,000 14,00012,000 12,00010,000 40-45% 10,000 8,000 8,000 6,000 6,000 -64% 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 0 0 2005 2020 2007 2020Note: Exchange rate of 6.831 USD/RMBSource: CEIC Database; “China’s Low Carbon Development Pathways by 2050 – Scenario Analysis of Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions” – by EnergyResearch Institute of NDRC; Smart2020, NBS & MIIT from CCID Consulting, Jan 2009; team analysis Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  17. 17. Conclusion 结论• China’s cities account for the 中国碳排放中城市排放占主体, majority of China’s emissions 未来几十年还将持续增长 and are expected to see strong continued growth in coming decades• ICT can help unlock growth potential 利用ICT技术可以遏制增长势头• ICT can also play a major role 利用ICT技术还可实现整个经济 in enabling emission 体尤其是城市地区的减排 reductions across the economy and particularly in cities Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net
  18. 18. Thank-you! 谢谢! 3 December 2010 Jon Kornik Jon Kornikwww.zadek.net www.zadek.net Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

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