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# Risk

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Risk Assessment, Mitigation &amp; Management

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### Risk

1. 1. JW T John Wilson Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
2. 2. JW T W hat is R isk ?  Risk is a function of the likelihood of a given threat-source’s exercising a particular potential vulnerability, and the resulting impact of that adverse event on the organisation. Risk Level of Danger Chances of that from event occurring an adverse event Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
3. 3. JW T D ifferent A spects of R isk Risk Risk Risk Risk Analysis Assessment Management Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
4. 4. R isk A nalysis JW T Supported by AS/NZ 4360:1995 Risk Management Approaches to Risk Analysis can be broken down into two main categories: Quantitative Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk Analysis Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
5. 5. Q uantitative R isk A nalysis JW T  2 Elements: The probability of an event occurring & the likely loss Quantitative Risk Analysis makes use of a single figure produced from these elements, called: Annual Loss Expectancy (ALE) or Estimated Annual Cost (EAC) For an event this is calculated by multiplying the potential loss by the probability. It is therefore possible to rank events in order of risk (ALE),and make decisions based upon this Problems with this approach tend to relate to unreliability and inaccuracy of data. Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
6. 6. Q ualitative R isk A nalysis JW T By far the most widely used approach to risk analysis Probability data is not required & only estimated potential loss is used Most qualitative methodologies use a number of interrelated elements: Threats – things that can go wrong Vulnerabilities – things that make an attack more likely to have some success or impact Controls – countermeasures for vulnerabilities – 4 types: Deterrent Controls – reduce the likelihood of a deliberate attack Preventative Controls – protect vulnerabilities & reduce impact Corrective Controls – reduce the effect of an attack Detective Controls – discover attacks & trigger corrective controls Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
7. 7. JW T C ontrols – R elational M odel Threat Threat Deterrent Corrective Corrective Deterrent Control Control Control Creates Control Reduces Likelihood of ATTACK Discovers Vulnerability Vulnerability Decreases Detective Detective Protects Results Control Control In Triggers Preventative Preventative Reduces Impact Impact Control Control Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
8. 8. JW T Q u a lita tive M e th o d s (R e la tive ) Colloquial Expressions High/Medium/Low Major/Minor/None Scenario Risk Analysis Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
9. 9. JW T C olloquial E xpressions  Listening to what people say – and then …  Expressing complex relationships in those terms  It is not necessary to calculate figures …..  The argument in the Colloquial Expression is enough  Colloquial Expressions are easily understood  Examples: High/Medium/Low; Major/Minor/None Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
10. 10. JW T H igh/M edium /Low Likelihood HIGH MEDIUM LOW Consequence Serious Illness  Death  Injury  Results: Risk of Serious Illness is High Risk of Death is Medium Risk of Injury is low Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
11. 11. JW T H igh/M edium /Low  1 = High Risk, Urgent Risk HIGH MEDIUM LOW  2 = Medium Risk, Urgent Importance  3 = Low Risk, Urgent  4 = High Risk, Pressing Urgent 1 2 3  5 = Medium Risk, Pressing Pressing 4 5 6  6 = Low Risk, Pressing Not Urgent 7 8 9  7 = High Risk, Not Urgent  8 = Medium Risk, Not Urgent  9 = Low, Risk, Not Urgent Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
12. 12. S cenario R isk A nalysis JW T Incident Likelihood Loss Loss Risk H/M/L H/M/L \$\$\$ Rank Description H H 20,000 7 Of Scenario  Useful when exploring “What if” scenarios Can be useful to get a more complete understanding Of actual risks that we face Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
13. 13. JW T R isk A ssessm ent  To optimise risk control (treatment) procedures & contingency decisions, management needs to have structured analytical information on: Relevant critical business activities (and associated ICT systems) Critical timeframes for each activity Tangible & intangible consequences should these activities be unavailable Minimum resources required to support each activity. The consequences quantified over time, should business activities be unavailable, provide the priorities for Recovery or Continuity of these activities. Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
14. 14. JW In fo rm a tio n G a th e rin g T e c h n iq u e s T  Questionaires: The most reliable method of gathering information on Risk  On-site Interviews: Allow observation of the physical environment & operational security Document Review: Policy documents; security- related documentation; auditors reports etc. Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
15. 15. Q uestionnaires JW T Should define the scope of the risk assessment Should be tailored to suit the organisation’s core business Should include questions on historical experiences Should be completed by key personnel, with key responsibilities Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
16. 16. R isk A ssessm ent R eports JW T The following Risk Assessment Reports should be created (in that order): Assessment Boundary Definition List of Identified Systems at risk List of Identified Threats and Vulnerabilities List of Current and Planned Controls Likelihood Determination Report Impact Rating Report Risks & Associated Risk Levels Recommended Controls Risk Assessment Report (Results Documentation) Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
17. 17. B u sin e ss Im p a c t A n a lysis JW T (A step - by - step A pproac h) 1. Document gross revenue & net profit for the year – this sets the upper boundary for business losses. 2. Define your business critical systems – track in a spreadsheet – revenue data can be included if desired. 3. Classify each system as critical, important or non-critical – interview operators re impact of outages – short/medium/long. 4. Document system cross-dependencies. 5. Estimate financial impacts associated with each system. 6. Estimate the cost to identify, remediate, recover & resume operations for each system – include labour, HW/SW costs. 7. Identify the Maximum Acceptable Outage (MAO) for each system. Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
18. 18. R isk M itigation JW T ( U sing R isk A ssessm e nt R ep ort as In p ut ) Step 1: Prioritize Actions from High to Low Step 2: Evaluate Recommended Control Options – Feasibility/Effectiveness Step 3: Conduct Cost-Benefit Analysis – Implementing/Not Implementing Step 4: Select Controls Step 5: Assign Responsibility – List of responsible persons Step 6: Develop Safeguard Implementation Plan – List of Mitigation Controls with Implementation Timeline Step 7: Implement Selected Controls Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
19. 19. B usiness C ontinuity P lanning JW T Section 9 of AS/NZS Information Security Management Standard 4444:1996 says there should be a BCP process to cover the following:  Identification & prioritization of critical business processes  Determination of the potential impact of various types of disaster on business activities – Risk Assessment  Identification & agreement on all responsibilities & emergency arrangements.  Documentation of agreed procedures and processes.  Appropriate education of staff in executing these.  Testing of the plans.  Ongoing updating of the plans. Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L
20. 20. S um m ary JW T Good Risk Assessment & Management is foundational and a prerequisite to good Business Continuity Planning Copyright © 2004 T. John Wilson & Associates P/L