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everything old is
                                                       new again
                                                            designing for the future




http://www.flickr.com/photos/ssoosay/4128397609/
“...it takes on average
                               20 years for a
                               technology to make
                               the transition from
                               first articulation to
                               maturity (defined as
                               becoming a $1billion
                               industry)…the
                               mouse, for example,
                               took 30 years. “
                               – Bill Buxton, Principle
                               researcher Microsoft




Patent 3522664 November 1967
take for example
                                                             the humble fax machine...
                                                      (a technology that may finally have outlived its usefulness)




http://www.flickr.com/photos/mattjiggins/4009310821/
1843




 Alexander Bain




                                                            The fax machine was first
                                                            envisioned and patented in 1843
                                                            by Scotsman Alexander Bain...




                    (image shown is of an 1850 iteration)



Image source: Wikipedia
1843                1848




 Alexander Bain

                     Frederick Bakewell




      ...then improved on
      (and patented once again)
      in 1848 by Frederick Bakewell.




Image source: Wikipedia
1843                   1848               1861




 Alexander Bain

                      Frederick Bakewell

                                            Giovanni Castelli




   Then improved on once again
   13 years later, this time by
   Giovanni Castelli, an Italian priest...




                                                                Castelli’s pantelegraph


Pantelegraph image courtesy ITIS Gallileo
1843               1848                      1861            1865




Alexander Bain
                                                                first fax
                                                                service
                 Frederick Bakewell

                                            Giovanni Castelli




 Then in 1865, Castelli went
 on to establish the first                                                  Paris

 public fax service...
 (the service worked over telegraph lines
 and ran between Paris and Lyon)
                                                                                   Lyon
1843                1848                   1861               1865                                    1876




 Alexander Bain
                                                                   first fax
                                                                   service
                     Frederick Bakewell

                                             Giovanni Castelli




  ...this was still 11 years
  before the invention of
  the telephone...
  (this isn’t unusual—we don’t always know
  the true value of a technology until a
  related one comes along)




                                                   Photo of
                                                            Bell usin
                                                                      g t h e t e le
                                                                                     phone in
                                                                                              N e w Yo
                                                                                                      r k.

Image source: Wikipedia
1843                   1848                             1861            1865                  1876



                                                                                                telephone
 Alexander Bain                                                                                   patent:
                                                                              first fax
                                                                              service           Alexander
                     Frederick Bakewell                                                        Graham Bell
                                                                                                Innocenzo
                                                          Giovanni Castelli
                                                                                                 Manzetti

                                                                                                 Thomas
   Six people were known to have been working on                                                  Edison

   “voice transmission over a wire” around the                                                   J. P. Reis
   time that Bell was ultimately successful in                                                  Elisha Gray
   obtaining the first patent.                                                                    Antonio
                                                                                                 Meucci




     Alexander             Thomas             Innocenzo          Johann           Elisha   Antonio
    Graham Bell            Edison             Manzetti         Phillip Reis       Gray     Meucci



Image source: Wikipedia - History of the telephone
1843                   1848                             1861            1865                  1876         1877



                                                                                                telephone
 Alexander Bain                                                                                   patent:
                                                                              first fax
                                                                              service           Alexander
                     Frederick Bakewell                                                        Graham Bell
                                                                                                Innocenzo
                                                          Giovanni Castelli
                                                                                                 Manzetti

                                                                                                 Thomas         telephone
   Shortly thereafter, a Hungarian engineer by the                                                Edison        exchange:
                                                                                                              Tivadar Puskás
   name of Tivadar Puskás invented the telephone                                                 J. P. Reis
   switchboard—which allowed for the formation of                                               Elisha Gray
   telephone exchanges (and eventually networks).                                                Antonio
                                                                                                 Meucci




     Alexander             Thomas             Innocenzo          Johann           Elisha   Antonio            Tivadar
    Graham Bell            Edison             Manzetti         Phillip Reis       Gray     Meucci             Puskás



Image source: Wikipedia - History of the telephone
almost immediately—we began
                                                  dreaming up ways to move
                                                             phones around




http://www.flickr.com/photos/qwrrty/3989643653
an example from
                                                                                  the early 1920s




                                      A wireless phone prototype for the well-
                                      to-do lady on the town...




Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube
...of course it’s a bit bulky, so the lady
                                      may need a gentleman to carry it...




Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube
telephone
                                                                          box
                                                                        wire coiled
                                                                        around a fire
                                                                        hydrant




                                     “The two ladies are using a small simple HF
                                     radio, probably a ‘Cat’s Whisker’ type. For it
                                     to work it needs to be earthed, which is
                                     why it’s connected to the fire hydrant...”



Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube
handheld
                                                                    mouthpiece




                                     “The antenna (or aerial) is the wire in the
                                     umbrella...”
                                      - Explanation courtesy of Simon Atkins, an Ex-Royal Signals officer




Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube
the simplest solution was
                                                    of course to distribute the phones
                                                          throughout our environment
                                                         (a solution that remained useful for more than 100 years!)


Public phone booth: Lancaster county Pennsylvania
in a pinch, you could
                                                      also build a portable booth
                                                       a mobile phone center for reporters in 1960s Chicago



Copyright: Popular Science - via modernmechanix.com
Finally, after twenty years of experimentation
(and the invention of microprocessors) we ended up with this....




                                      1983: the $3,995 DynaTAC
                                      the first mobile telephone that
                                      could connect to the telephone
                                      network without the assistance of
                                      a mobile operator
...which was released about the same time as this.




              1984: the Apple Macintosh
            the first commercially successful personal
               computer to feature a mouse and a
                      graphical user interface
...the following ten years were pretty much devoted to
     finding ways to combine these two concepts....




                           +
...until in 1993, IBM and Bell South released the world’s
first smartphone: the Simon Personal Communicator...

                                  ooh, rounded corners…
Simon was not just the first device to combine a portable
   computer with a phone...it also incorporated many
   concepts that are now standard on mobile devices...




      clock                              touchscreen
     calendar                           virtual keyboard
   address book                      electronic sketchpad
      email                         handwriting recognition
  text messaging                      predictive text input
Simon’s creators also envisioned the concept of
              apps to personalise and extend the device’s capabilities




                                                         +
                                                                     Accounting       Music Player     Camera
                                                                     Version 1.0      Version 1.1      Version 1.0




                                                                  cartridges designed to fit Simon’s
                                                                  PCMCIA slot




Artist’s rendering based on photos from “Before iPhone and Android came Simon”
Simon retailed for $899 and sold about 50,000 units
                     until it was discontinued due to a combination of
                  “...technical limitations, product delays, a world-class
                   corporate meltdown, revolving-door management,
                                and bad business decisions...”




Source: “Before iPhone and Android came Simon”
Simon’s apps were designed to be installed directly onto
             the device...yet around that time scientists at Xerox PARC
             were experimenting with a slightly different approach...




Courtesy Xerox PARC press archive
“              The most profound technologies are those that
                      disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of
                      everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it….
                      - Mark Weiser (1991)




http://www.flickr.com/photos/armaggeusa/3176297283
To further explore Weiser’s predictions of the
                                    implications of ubiquitous computing, PARC
                                    developed an office based context-aware
                                    networked computing environment, and a
                                    device they called the PARC TAB.
Courtesy Xerox PARC press archive
The TAB was designed to be carried or worn at all times.
It's size, weight, and features were specifically intended to
     promote casual, spur of the moment, computing.




                   Name: Marge Eldridge
                   Office: [    ] Ext: 518
                   Manager:                          chorded keys enabling basic
                   Manages:
                   25/1/94 14:39    @ [    461770]   one-handed navigation
                   “ 14:41    @
                   ” 14:41    511    462983
                   “ 14:42    @
                   ” 14:45




                  touch screen + stylus
This level of portability (unheard of in 1993) was
          made possible by several key design decisions.


                                    constantly connected to other Tabs
                                     and computers through a series of
                                       infrared communication hubs




 tiny processor =                                                               TAB applications
smaller, cheaper &                                                             run on a user’s (far
 more lightweight                                                                 more capable)
  (terminal-style)
                                                 added benefit:                   desktop system
      device                                 contextual awareness
                                        (e.g. location, interactions with
                                            other devices, data and
                                             applications accessed)



(apparently, researchers at Euro PARC were Mac based and developed ways to use and prototype Tab applications on a Mac)
This environment also
  enabled experiments in
  “intimate computing”.
  One of these was a context-
  aware application prototype
  called “Forget-me-not”.                                         Name: Marge Eldridge
                                                                  Office: [    ] Ext: 518
                                                                  Manager:
  The app was designed to                                         Manages:
                                                                  25/1/94 14:39    @ [    461770]
  serve as an “external                                           “ 14:41    @
                                                                  ” 14:41    511    462983
  memory prosthetic”,                                             “ 14:42    @
  automatically gathering data                                    ” 14:45
  (from the TAB or other
  devices operating on the
  network). This data could be
  used by participants to easily                               Manages:
  track and recall important                                   25/1/94 14:39       @ [        461770]
  aspects of their lives.                                      “ 14:41    @
                                                                                          phone
                                                                date     time person 1    call    number
                                                                                      person 2    dialled



Forget me not: Intimate computing in support of human memory
1983 1984      1992 1993                       today



                                                today

Motorola         IBM
DynaTAC         Simon
                        PARC
                         TAB
     Apple
    Macintosh


 ....the iPhone, Facebook and cloud computing
 were still close to 20 years away...
when working with technology
 it’s easy to believe that if something
 is cool, useful or in some way
 “superior” it will inevitably thrive




http://www.flickr.com/photos/remedios/66912941
“
                                                 ...you’ll never hear someone
                                                 spontaneously express a wish
                                                 for a ubiquitous house or city.
                                                 There are days, in fact, when it
                                                 can seem to me that the entire
                                                 endeavor has arisen out of
                                                 some combination of the
                                                 technically feasible and that
                                                 which is of interest to people
                                                 working in HCI.
                                                 - Adam Greenfield, Everyware




http://www.flickr.com/photos/dodoorg/5023608260
...no matter how cool it may be...many technologies,
        ecosystems and conditions must align before an invention
                     enters the lives of “normal people”.
1937                           1962      1971                                                      2012

                                                40 years of innovation including the growth of
                        “The Electrocular”      the microprocessor, the Internet, the web,                   something
                                                network data protocols, display technologies....             normal people
                                                                                                             will use :-)

                                                                                             Google’s
                                                                                             Project Glass



use of reflector sights in               Virtual reality goggles
cockpits during World War II            Dr. Ivan Sutherland
                                        University of Utah
It’s worth remembering as well that “normal people” don’t
       actually have to use a technology for it to impact their lives...

1937             1960           1962      1971                                                      2012

                                                 40 years of innovation including the growth of
       Gilbert
                         “The Electrocular”      the microprocessor, the Internet, the web,                   something
       Klopfstein, a
                                                 network data protocols, display technologies....             normal people
       French test-pilot
                                                                                                              will use :-)
       creates first HUD
       system for use in                                                                      Google’s
       commercial                                                                             Project Glass
       aviation


use of reflector sights in                Virtual reality goggles
cockpits during World War II             Dr. Ivan Sutherland
                                         University of Utah
...the most useful and widely deployed implementations may
                also turn out to be relatively mundane...

1937             1960           1962      1971                     1988                             2012


       Gilbert
                         “The Electrocular”                        BMW implements the                           something
       Klopfstein, a
                                                                   first HUD-integrated                          normal people
       French test-pilot
                                                                   telematics                                   will use :-)
       creates first HUD
       system for use in                                                                        Google’s
       commercial                                                                               Project Glass
       aviation


use of reflector sights in                Virtual reality goggles
cockpits during World War II             Dr. Ivan Sutherland
                                                                   (modern day version shown)
                                         University of Utah
“Technological revolutions have
several interesting properties.
First, we tend to overestimate
the immediate impact and
underestimate the long-term
impact.

Second, we tend to place the
emphasis on the technologies
themselves, when it is really the
social impact and cultural change
that will be most dramatic.”
– Don Norman, Drop everything you’re doing




                                             http://www.flickr.com/photos/jordanfischer/61429449
learning how to use
                                                a new technology is one thing...


http://www.flickr.com/photos/jcfrog/4692750598
making space for it
                                                  in our lives is another




http://www.flickr.com/photos/krossbow/4509414056
even when the value proposition
                                                                                 should appear obvious

Bell telephone advertisement in National Geographic, 1958 - via Modernmechanix
this not only makes it tricky to market new products...
it can also prevent those who design and develop them from
           imagining something completely new...
From futurists to product designers...we can’t help but insert bits
  of the present into our dreams of the future...




                                                               telecommunication in the year 2000
                                                                            ...as imagined in 1910

Utopia: The Quest for the Ideal Society in the Western World
...and re-imagined in 1956




Scientific American, 1956 - via Modernmechanix
Home of the Future:
as imagined by Disney Imagineering, MIT
         and Monsanto in 1957
The home of the future looks
     futuristic and is entirely
     made of plastic!




                                    -1957-




Watch the video on YouTube
...the interior however is
     designed to feel familiar, with a
     “normal” looking piano and
     dining room...




                                         -1957-




Watch the video on YouTube
The recurring selling point
     however is plastic. There are
     plastic countertops,
     (motorised) plastics shelves
     and a “luxurious” set of plastic
     cups, plates and dishes.
     (Monsanto’s involvement obviously had
     something to do with this, but plastic was also
     the modern substance of the day).
                                                       -1957-




Watch the video on YouTube
In the bedroom “the lady of the
     house” has her own private
     plastic boudoir. On the
     counter is a speaker phone,
     complete with ultra modern
     push buttons instead of a
     rotary dial.
     (Note how lovingly the wife stares at the phone
     while speaking to her husband. On the one hand
     it’s charming that multitasking as you speak
     wasn't yet socially acceptable but it also kind of      -1957-
     sad that 50 years later, we still spend a lot of time
     staring at our phones.)




Watch the video on YouTube
The man of the house has the
     pleasure of shaving in his ultra
     modern bathroom—fashioned
     out of one giant piece of pre-
     moulded plastic.
     There’s also a “built-in” razor.
     (The razor is corded and hardwired to the wall :-)


                                                          -1957-




Watch the video on YouTube
The future of shopping:
  as imagined in 1969
The lady of the
                             house browses a
                             selection of
                             tempting offers via
                             video display.




                                       -1969-

Watch the video on YouTube
Push-buttons and
                             dials are used to
                             control what
                             appears on the
                             display...




                                      -1969-

Watch the video on YouTube
She then uses
                             another device to
                             key in her choice
                             of purchase.
                             (It was hard to imagine at that
                             point that devices might just
                             “talk” to each other).




                                                -1969-

Watch the video on YouTube
(To prevent social
                             embarrassment...)
                             the husband
                             receives an
                             itemised list of his
                             wife’s purchases.




                                        -1969-

Watch the video on YouTube
...which he
                             carefully inspects...




                                         -1969-

Watch the video on YouTube
...he then prints a
                             copy of the order
                             and uses a touch
                             screen and stylus
                             to sign in approval.




                                        -1969-

Watch the video on YouTube
but mixing old and new isn’t all bad...
sometimes it may be
                                                 exactly what we need

http://www.flickr.com/photos/davilla/3363343340
The “old” brings with it
     familiar metaphors...




http://www.flickr.com/photos/mujitra/6778948371
...and provides a common
conceptual framework.




familiar gesture
says “I get how
to use this...”
...transforming something alien into something that feels magical,
           yet familiar enough that you can see yourself using it.




                    so many wires...run away!     almost like shopping at Nike :-)




Courtesy Makerbot Industries Blog and on Flickr
“Successful products are precisely those that don’t
                 attempt to move user experiences significantly,
                 even if the underlying technology has radically shifted.

                 In fact the whole point of user experience design is to
                 manufacture the necessary normalcy for a product to
                 succeed...” - Greg Borenstein




http://www.flickr.com/photos/ducdigital/2892313560
with nothing familiar to hold on to
                                                      it’s maybe not surprising that
                                                     some ideas never quite make it



http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/302869583
but metaphor and familiarity
            only go so far...
Golly gee...with a
                       contraption like this,
                    my wife could spend the
                   whole day shopping! Good
                   thing I still have to approve
                       all those purchases!




              many new technologies require
features to (implicitly) alleviate social angst
Source: Wikipedia




  In 1982 GRiD Systems Corp. released the first clamshell style laptop.
  The GRiD Compass 1100 cost $8,150, yet that’s not why it failed to catch on...
“It was designed for business executives. And...one of the
            biggest obstacles, we had for selling the product was the
            fact—believe it or not—that it had a keyboard.

            Business people, who were in their 40s and 50s, didn’t have
            a computer or keyboard in their offices. It was associated
            with being part of the secretarial pool. And so you'd put
            this thing in their office and they'd say, "Get that out of
            here." It was like getting a demotion. They were really
            uncomfortable with it.”
            – Jeff Hawkins speaking at the Computer History Museum




http://www.flickr.com/photos/ducdigital/2892313560
according to anthropologist Genevieve Bell
                              a technology must have the potential to impact us
                                           in three ways to cause social angst...
                                                            (or as she calls it “moral panic”

Women and children first : technology and moral panic
it has to change
our relationship to time...

                              http://www.flickr.com/photos/faceme/2882556082
it has to change
                                                our relationship to space...




http://www.flickr.com/photos/shokai/4678255766
...and change our relationship
to other people




http://www.flickr.com/photos/misbehave/2352753067
...changes in our relationship to time and space
don’t come along nearly as often as they used to....
the phonograph
                                                           suddenly made it possible
                                                     to hear the voices of the dead...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/puuikibeach/7400339252
“...it is really flying, and it is impossible to divest yourself
  of the notion of instant death...“
  – The Railway Journey: The Industrialization of Time and Space in the 19th Century




                                                                the advent of the railway
                                                     caused intense fear of death...
                                                        (above and beyond that caused by horrific accidents)

Train wreck at Montparnasse, 1895, Wikipedia
http://www.flickr.com/photos/puuikibeach/7400339252
...it also caused what the Lancet medical journal
           then termed “nervous fatigue”...
“...even the elementary concepts of
                                     space and time have begun to vacillate. Space is
                              killed by the railways, and we are left with time alone.“
                                                      – German-Jewish poet Heinrich Heine (1797-1856)




http://www.flickr.com/photos/svensson/601272668
shifting time and space may now seem
          somewhat mundane...
...but changes in our
relationships with people
 will likely cause angst for
     many years to come
...so what can the past teach us about
       designing for the future?
we often talk about the future
 as if it will arrive, fully formed on
 our doorstep one fine morning




Public domain: Space colony art from the 1970s
residential smart
                                     card entry
                                                                          4G already
old, organically formed                                                  overtaking 3G
   neighbourhoods




                                                                  ...and the stories we tell

                                                                                               city-wide wi-fi




                             contactless Octopus
                                 smart card




                                                           but the future is already here...
        smart grid and

                                                                    the old all jumbled up
  environmental monitoring




                                                                               with the new...
                                                paper map from
                                                   the hotel


                                                                         http://www.flickr.com/photos/milo_riano/4336541309
the success of the products we design
will be defined not merely by the
technologies we invent...

                                        http://www.flickr.com/photos/preetamrai/5438199316
Rate of acceleration/deceleration of technology adoption by country




                                                                                         but by the cultures that
                                                                                      choose to welcome them...
Research by Intel measures the rate at which technology adoption exceeds (or falls
below) expectations for the country’s level of GDP. Rates have been averaged across
three technologies: mobile phones, PC’s, and internet users.
which brings us back to the humble fax machine...
                                                      a technology that now gathers dust in
                                                               all but one “modern” culture

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mattjiggins/4009310821/
...Japan
culture of
        handwritten documents


         warmth & personality



            instant visibility



        tech literacy: 1/5 of the
         population is over 65


         use of seals instead of
         signatures for official
              transactions                in Japan, fax machines still thrive
                                                  in the home and at work




Source: Japan and the fax: a love affair                     http://www.flickr.com/photos/kankan/55026589
But culture isn’t just about them...
      (these people we call “users”)
Anthropologist Clifford Geertz once
defined culture as “...the stories we
tell ourselves about ourselves. “




                                       http://www.flickr.com/photos/leweb3/6498812861/
The more technology surrounds us,
the more all of us will play a part in
defining these stories...




                                         http://www.flickr.com/photos/leweb3/6498812861/
...the future will not just be defined
by the next big invention—it will be
also be defined by our ability to
dream beyond existing ones.




                                        http://www.flickr.com/photos/leweb3/6498812861/
“
...innovation is not about doing something
new out of thin air. It is about forgetting
that what you are doing is old.
- Dawn Nafus, anthropologist




                                         http://www.flickr.com/photos/keepwaddling1/3048726936/
s
contact u
at
               hello@yiibu.com
    Presentation deck available @
    http://www.slideshare.net/yiibu

    many thanks to the
    amazing photographers on




            http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0



             @yiibu
                                                                      thank you



                                                         http://www.flickr.com/photos/tinou/453593446

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Everything old is new again

  • 1. everything old is new again designing for the future http://www.flickr.com/photos/ssoosay/4128397609/
  • 2. “...it takes on average 20 years for a technology to make the transition from first articulation to maturity (defined as becoming a $1billion industry)…the mouse, for example, took 30 years. “ – Bill Buxton, Principle researcher Microsoft Patent 3522664 November 1967
  • 3. take for example the humble fax machine... (a technology that may finally have outlived its usefulness) http://www.flickr.com/photos/mattjiggins/4009310821/
  • 4. 1843 Alexander Bain The fax machine was first envisioned and patented in 1843 by Scotsman Alexander Bain... (image shown is of an 1850 iteration) Image source: Wikipedia
  • 5. 1843 1848 Alexander Bain Frederick Bakewell ...then improved on (and patented once again) in 1848 by Frederick Bakewell. Image source: Wikipedia
  • 6. 1843 1848 1861 Alexander Bain Frederick Bakewell Giovanni Castelli Then improved on once again 13 years later, this time by Giovanni Castelli, an Italian priest... Castelli’s pantelegraph Pantelegraph image courtesy ITIS Gallileo
  • 7. 1843 1848 1861 1865 Alexander Bain first fax service Frederick Bakewell Giovanni Castelli Then in 1865, Castelli went on to establish the first Paris public fax service... (the service worked over telegraph lines and ran between Paris and Lyon) Lyon
  • 8. 1843 1848 1861 1865 1876 Alexander Bain first fax service Frederick Bakewell Giovanni Castelli ...this was still 11 years before the invention of the telephone... (this isn’t unusual—we don’t always know the true value of a technology until a related one comes along) Photo of Bell usin g t h e t e le phone in N e w Yo r k. Image source: Wikipedia
  • 9. 1843 1848 1861 1865 1876 telephone Alexander Bain patent: first fax service Alexander Frederick Bakewell Graham Bell Innocenzo Giovanni Castelli Manzetti Thomas Six people were known to have been working on Edison “voice transmission over a wire” around the J. P. Reis time that Bell was ultimately successful in Elisha Gray obtaining the first patent. Antonio Meucci Alexander Thomas Innocenzo Johann Elisha Antonio Graham Bell Edison Manzetti Phillip Reis Gray Meucci Image source: Wikipedia - History of the telephone
  • 10. 1843 1848 1861 1865 1876 1877 telephone Alexander Bain patent: first fax service Alexander Frederick Bakewell Graham Bell Innocenzo Giovanni Castelli Manzetti Thomas telephone Shortly thereafter, a Hungarian engineer by the Edison exchange: Tivadar Puskás name of Tivadar Puskás invented the telephone J. P. Reis switchboard—which allowed for the formation of Elisha Gray telephone exchanges (and eventually networks). Antonio Meucci Alexander Thomas Innocenzo Johann Elisha Antonio Tivadar Graham Bell Edison Manzetti Phillip Reis Gray Meucci Puskás Image source: Wikipedia - History of the telephone
  • 11. almost immediately—we began dreaming up ways to move phones around http://www.flickr.com/photos/qwrrty/3989643653
  • 12. an example from the early 1920s A wireless phone prototype for the well- to-do lady on the town... Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube
  • 13. ...of course it’s a bit bulky, so the lady may need a gentleman to carry it... Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube
  • 14. telephone box wire coiled around a fire hydrant “The two ladies are using a small simple HF radio, probably a ‘Cat’s Whisker’ type. For it to work it needs to be earthed, which is why it’s connected to the fire hydrant...” Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube
  • 15. handheld mouthpiece “The antenna (or aerial) is the wire in the umbrella...” - Explanation courtesy of Simon Atkins, an Ex-Royal Signals officer Watch the video Courtesy Pathé Films Archive on YouTube
  • 16. the simplest solution was of course to distribute the phones throughout our environment (a solution that remained useful for more than 100 years!) Public phone booth: Lancaster county Pennsylvania
  • 17. in a pinch, you could also build a portable booth a mobile phone center for reporters in 1960s Chicago Copyright: Popular Science - via modernmechanix.com
  • 18. Finally, after twenty years of experimentation (and the invention of microprocessors) we ended up with this.... 1983: the $3,995 DynaTAC the first mobile telephone that could connect to the telephone network without the assistance of a mobile operator
  • 19. ...which was released about the same time as this. 1984: the Apple Macintosh the first commercially successful personal computer to feature a mouse and a graphical user interface
  • 20. ...the following ten years were pretty much devoted to finding ways to combine these two concepts.... +
  • 21. ...until in 1993, IBM and Bell South released the world’s first smartphone: the Simon Personal Communicator... ooh, rounded corners…
  • 22. Simon was not just the first device to combine a portable computer with a phone...it also incorporated many concepts that are now standard on mobile devices... clock touchscreen calendar virtual keyboard address book electronic sketchpad email handwriting recognition text messaging predictive text input
  • 23. Simon’s creators also envisioned the concept of apps to personalise and extend the device’s capabilities + Accounting Music Player Camera Version 1.0 Version 1.1 Version 1.0 cartridges designed to fit Simon’s PCMCIA slot Artist’s rendering based on photos from “Before iPhone and Android came Simon”
  • 24. Simon retailed for $899 and sold about 50,000 units until it was discontinued due to a combination of “...technical limitations, product delays, a world-class corporate meltdown, revolving-door management, and bad business decisions...” Source: “Before iPhone and Android came Simon”
  • 25. Simon’s apps were designed to be installed directly onto the device...yet around that time scientists at Xerox PARC were experimenting with a slightly different approach... Courtesy Xerox PARC press archive
  • 26. The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it…. - Mark Weiser (1991) http://www.flickr.com/photos/armaggeusa/3176297283
  • 27. To further explore Weiser’s predictions of the implications of ubiquitous computing, PARC developed an office based context-aware networked computing environment, and a device they called the PARC TAB. Courtesy Xerox PARC press archive
  • 28. The TAB was designed to be carried or worn at all times. It's size, weight, and features were specifically intended to promote casual, spur of the moment, computing. Name: Marge Eldridge Office: [ ] Ext: 518 Manager: chorded keys enabling basic Manages: 25/1/94 14:39 @ [ 461770] one-handed navigation “ 14:41 @ ” 14:41 511 462983 “ 14:42 @ ” 14:45 touch screen + stylus
  • 29. This level of portability (unheard of in 1993) was made possible by several key design decisions. constantly connected to other Tabs and computers through a series of infrared communication hubs tiny processor = TAB applications smaller, cheaper & run on a user’s (far more lightweight more capable) (terminal-style) added benefit: desktop system device contextual awareness (e.g. location, interactions with other devices, data and applications accessed) (apparently, researchers at Euro PARC were Mac based and developed ways to use and prototype Tab applications on a Mac)
  • 30. This environment also enabled experiments in “intimate computing”. One of these was a context- aware application prototype called “Forget-me-not”. Name: Marge Eldridge Office: [ ] Ext: 518 Manager: The app was designed to Manages: 25/1/94 14:39 @ [ 461770] serve as an “external “ 14:41 @ ” 14:41 511 462983 memory prosthetic”, “ 14:42 @ automatically gathering data ” 14:45 (from the TAB or other devices operating on the network). This data could be used by participants to easily Manages: track and recall important 25/1/94 14:39 @ [ 461770] aspects of their lives. “ 14:41 @ phone date time person 1 call number person 2 dialled Forget me not: Intimate computing in support of human memory
  • 31. 1983 1984 1992 1993 today today Motorola IBM DynaTAC Simon PARC TAB Apple Macintosh ....the iPhone, Facebook and cloud computing were still close to 20 years away...
  • 32. when working with technology it’s easy to believe that if something is cool, useful or in some way “superior” it will inevitably thrive http://www.flickr.com/photos/remedios/66912941
  • 33. ...you’ll never hear someone spontaneously express a wish for a ubiquitous house or city. There are days, in fact, when it can seem to me that the entire endeavor has arisen out of some combination of the technically feasible and that which is of interest to people working in HCI. - Adam Greenfield, Everyware http://www.flickr.com/photos/dodoorg/5023608260
  • 34. ...no matter how cool it may be...many technologies, ecosystems and conditions must align before an invention enters the lives of “normal people”. 1937 1962 1971 2012 40 years of innovation including the growth of “The Electrocular” the microprocessor, the Internet, the web, something network data protocols, display technologies.... normal people will use :-) Google’s Project Glass use of reflector sights in Virtual reality goggles cockpits during World War II Dr. Ivan Sutherland University of Utah
  • 35. It’s worth remembering as well that “normal people” don’t actually have to use a technology for it to impact their lives... 1937 1960 1962 1971 2012 40 years of innovation including the growth of Gilbert “The Electrocular” the microprocessor, the Internet, the web, something Klopfstein, a network data protocols, display technologies.... normal people French test-pilot will use :-) creates first HUD system for use in Google’s commercial Project Glass aviation use of reflector sights in Virtual reality goggles cockpits during World War II Dr. Ivan Sutherland University of Utah
  • 36. ...the most useful and widely deployed implementations may also turn out to be relatively mundane... 1937 1960 1962 1971 1988 2012 Gilbert “The Electrocular” BMW implements the something Klopfstein, a first HUD-integrated normal people French test-pilot telematics will use :-) creates first HUD system for use in Google’s commercial Project Glass aviation use of reflector sights in Virtual reality goggles cockpits during World War II Dr. Ivan Sutherland (modern day version shown) University of Utah
  • 37. “Technological revolutions have several interesting properties. First, we tend to overestimate the immediate impact and underestimate the long-term impact. Second, we tend to place the emphasis on the technologies themselves, when it is really the social impact and cultural change that will be most dramatic.” – Don Norman, Drop everything you’re doing http://www.flickr.com/photos/jordanfischer/61429449
  • 38. learning how to use a new technology is one thing... http://www.flickr.com/photos/jcfrog/4692750598
  • 39. making space for it in our lives is another http://www.flickr.com/photos/krossbow/4509414056
  • 40. even when the value proposition should appear obvious Bell telephone advertisement in National Geographic, 1958 - via Modernmechanix
  • 41. this not only makes it tricky to market new products... it can also prevent those who design and develop them from imagining something completely new...
  • 42. From futurists to product designers...we can’t help but insert bits of the present into our dreams of the future... telecommunication in the year 2000 ...as imagined in 1910 Utopia: The Quest for the Ideal Society in the Western World
  • 43. ...and re-imagined in 1956 Scientific American, 1956 - via Modernmechanix
  • 44. Home of the Future: as imagined by Disney Imagineering, MIT and Monsanto in 1957
  • 45. The home of the future looks futuristic and is entirely made of plastic! -1957- Watch the video on YouTube
  • 46. ...the interior however is designed to feel familiar, with a “normal” looking piano and dining room... -1957- Watch the video on YouTube
  • 47. The recurring selling point however is plastic. There are plastic countertops, (motorised) plastics shelves and a “luxurious” set of plastic cups, plates and dishes. (Monsanto’s involvement obviously had something to do with this, but plastic was also the modern substance of the day). -1957- Watch the video on YouTube
  • 48. In the bedroom “the lady of the house” has her own private plastic boudoir. On the counter is a speaker phone, complete with ultra modern push buttons instead of a rotary dial. (Note how lovingly the wife stares at the phone while speaking to her husband. On the one hand it’s charming that multitasking as you speak wasn't yet socially acceptable but it also kind of -1957- sad that 50 years later, we still spend a lot of time staring at our phones.) Watch the video on YouTube
  • 49. The man of the house has the pleasure of shaving in his ultra modern bathroom—fashioned out of one giant piece of pre- moulded plastic. There’s also a “built-in” razor. (The razor is corded and hardwired to the wall :-) -1957- Watch the video on YouTube
  • 50. The future of shopping: as imagined in 1969
  • 51. The lady of the house browses a selection of tempting offers via video display. -1969- Watch the video on YouTube
  • 52. Push-buttons and dials are used to control what appears on the display... -1969- Watch the video on YouTube
  • 53. She then uses another device to key in her choice of purchase. (It was hard to imagine at that point that devices might just “talk” to each other). -1969- Watch the video on YouTube
  • 54. (To prevent social embarrassment...) the husband receives an itemised list of his wife’s purchases. -1969- Watch the video on YouTube
  • 55. ...which he carefully inspects... -1969- Watch the video on YouTube
  • 56. ...he then prints a copy of the order and uses a touch screen and stylus to sign in approval. -1969- Watch the video on YouTube
  • 57. but mixing old and new isn’t all bad...
  • 58. sometimes it may be exactly what we need http://www.flickr.com/photos/davilla/3363343340
  • 59. The “old” brings with it familiar metaphors... http://www.flickr.com/photos/mujitra/6778948371
  • 60. ...and provides a common conceptual framework. familiar gesture says “I get how to use this...”
  • 61. ...transforming something alien into something that feels magical, yet familiar enough that you can see yourself using it. so many wires...run away! almost like shopping at Nike :-) Courtesy Makerbot Industries Blog and on Flickr
  • 62. “Successful products are precisely those that don’t attempt to move user experiences significantly, even if the underlying technology has radically shifted. In fact the whole point of user experience design is to manufacture the necessary normalcy for a product to succeed...” - Greg Borenstein http://www.flickr.com/photos/ducdigital/2892313560
  • 63. with nothing familiar to hold on to it’s maybe not surprising that some ideas never quite make it http://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/302869583
  • 64. but metaphor and familiarity only go so far...
  • 65. Golly gee...with a contraption like this, my wife could spend the whole day shopping! Good thing I still have to approve all those purchases! many new technologies require features to (implicitly) alleviate social angst
  • 66. Source: Wikipedia In 1982 GRiD Systems Corp. released the first clamshell style laptop. The GRiD Compass 1100 cost $8,150, yet that’s not why it failed to catch on...
  • 67. “It was designed for business executives. And...one of the biggest obstacles, we had for selling the product was the fact—believe it or not—that it had a keyboard. Business people, who were in their 40s and 50s, didn’t have a computer or keyboard in their offices. It was associated with being part of the secretarial pool. And so you'd put this thing in their office and they'd say, "Get that out of here." It was like getting a demotion. They were really uncomfortable with it.” – Jeff Hawkins speaking at the Computer History Museum http://www.flickr.com/photos/ducdigital/2892313560
  • 68. according to anthropologist Genevieve Bell a technology must have the potential to impact us in three ways to cause social angst... (or as she calls it “moral panic” Women and children first : technology and moral panic
  • 69. it has to change our relationship to time... http://www.flickr.com/photos/faceme/2882556082
  • 70. it has to change our relationship to space... http://www.flickr.com/photos/shokai/4678255766
  • 71. ...and change our relationship to other people http://www.flickr.com/photos/misbehave/2352753067
  • 72. ...changes in our relationship to time and space don’t come along nearly as often as they used to....
  • 73. the phonograph suddenly made it possible to hear the voices of the dead... http://www.flickr.com/photos/puuikibeach/7400339252
  • 74. “...it is really flying, and it is impossible to divest yourself of the notion of instant death...“ – The Railway Journey: The Industrialization of Time and Space in the 19th Century the advent of the railway caused intense fear of death... (above and beyond that caused by horrific accidents) Train wreck at Montparnasse, 1895, Wikipedia http://www.flickr.com/photos/puuikibeach/7400339252
  • 75. ...it also caused what the Lancet medical journal then termed “nervous fatigue”...
  • 76. “...even the elementary concepts of space and time have begun to vacillate. Space is killed by the railways, and we are left with time alone.“ – German-Jewish poet Heinrich Heine (1797-1856) http://www.flickr.com/photos/svensson/601272668
  • 77. shifting time and space may now seem somewhat mundane...
  • 78. ...but changes in our relationships with people will likely cause angst for many years to come
  • 79. ...so what can the past teach us about designing for the future?
  • 80. we often talk about the future as if it will arrive, fully formed on our doorstep one fine morning Public domain: Space colony art from the 1970s
  • 81. residential smart card entry 4G already old, organically formed overtaking 3G neighbourhoods ...and the stories we tell city-wide wi-fi contactless Octopus smart card but the future is already here... smart grid and the old all jumbled up environmental monitoring with the new... paper map from the hotel http://www.flickr.com/photos/milo_riano/4336541309
  • 82. the success of the products we design will be defined not merely by the technologies we invent... http://www.flickr.com/photos/preetamrai/5438199316
  • 83. Rate of acceleration/deceleration of technology adoption by country but by the cultures that choose to welcome them... Research by Intel measures the rate at which technology adoption exceeds (or falls below) expectations for the country’s level of GDP. Rates have been averaged across three technologies: mobile phones, PC’s, and internet users.
  • 84. which brings us back to the humble fax machine... a technology that now gathers dust in all but one “modern” culture http://www.flickr.com/photos/mattjiggins/4009310821/
  • 86. culture of handwritten documents warmth & personality instant visibility tech literacy: 1/5 of the population is over 65 use of seals instead of signatures for official transactions in Japan, fax machines still thrive in the home and at work Source: Japan and the fax: a love affair http://www.flickr.com/photos/kankan/55026589
  • 87. But culture isn’t just about them... (these people we call “users”)
  • 88. Anthropologist Clifford Geertz once defined culture as “...the stories we tell ourselves about ourselves. “ http://www.flickr.com/photos/leweb3/6498812861/
  • 89. The more technology surrounds us, the more all of us will play a part in defining these stories... http://www.flickr.com/photos/leweb3/6498812861/
  • 90. ...the future will not just be defined by the next big invention—it will be also be defined by our ability to dream beyond existing ones. http://www.flickr.com/photos/leweb3/6498812861/
  • 91. “ ...innovation is not about doing something new out of thin air. It is about forgetting that what you are doing is old. - Dawn Nafus, anthropologist http://www.flickr.com/photos/keepwaddling1/3048726936/
  • 92. s contact u at hello@yiibu.com Presentation deck available @ http://www.slideshare.net/yiibu many thanks to the amazing photographers on http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 @yiibu thank you http://www.flickr.com/photos/tinou/453593446