THE LIGHT OF
OF JANUARY 25
Prepared and presented by
YehIa El ZOnt Researcher in
Humanities Management Science
[Type the document
in the light of
After the Revolution of
January 52 th
Prepared and presented by
YehIa El ZOnt
Researcher in Humanities
Notice: This research has enabled to obtain the
Grade of Management-Leadership from the
Egyptian Police Academy on 72 October 7122
To those concerned by future leadership…
To scholars in Management Science and practitioners…
To leaders in various areas…
For a brighter future…
To all those who contributed in this modest thesis… convinced
of its importance in this stage…
Thanks and appreciation
Praise be to Allah, prayer and peace be upon His Messenger
and the Seal of the Prophets, Prophet Muhammad and his
family and companions.
I thank God Almighty for having enabled me to complete this
study and I express my gratitude to all those who participated
and helped me obtaining this high-leveled degree, rich in
contents and so beneficial… to all of them I express my thanks,
my appreciation and my gratitude.
I also thank in particular:
Dr. Hisham Arafa The Scientific Supervisor
Dr. Gamal Tawfiq Lecturer in Research Methodology
My Professor Saad El Zant Head of the Center for Strategic Studies and
Who, through their wise guidance and bright advices enabled
me to complete this study in its final drafting; their support
and for having motivated me and transmitting me scientific
and practical experience in addition to invaluable moral
values. May God bless them for that… I also thank all mo
colleagues and friends.
And our final prayer is praise be to Allah, Lord of the Worlds
and peace and blessings on the Master of the first and the last
our Prophet Muhammad peace be upon him and all his family
There is no doubt we are living an era dominated by major
institutional conflicts and failures… A time combining painful
endings and hopeful beginnings… a period where all what
seemed rooted becomes obsolete and dies and where
something else is eager to appear.
When we look at the world map and see the continents stable
and forming a global island surrounded by water from
everywhere, we discover the magnitude of the role required
by the major changes… Earth was not divided in that manner
and without the trembling, earthquakes and cracks the Earth
would have been a single mass and we would not have seen
this map as it is known nowadays.
The former Czech President and playwright Vaclav Havel
said: "There are good reasons suggesting that the modern
era has ended and there are many things showing that we
are going through a transitional period and it seems that
something is on its way to disappear and that something
else arises in pain; as if there is something crumbles,
disintegrates and consumes itself, while another thing not
yet not clearly distinct arises from emerges from rubble."
Therefrom and applying on the nature of our national
organizations, we note that the civilizational changes taking
place in Egypt - at this stage – require in turn an earthquake to
design once again its cultural and humanitarian face, and draw
the most luxurious and bright colors and provide it with hope
To play its role, the new leadership needs new human
resource, valiant…able to overcome obstacles…introducing
new tracks… leader… optimistic and
interacting…electronically thinking… a leader relying on
people… trusting them… using methods of global quality and
management engineering and information technologies… a
leadership concerned by the creating the future instead of
formalities and technicalities devoid of any content.
And when States are facing the growing challenges and seek to
engage into the future, the intellectual earthquake becomes a
must, as it requires a new modeling of the mind and definition
of possible and impossible changes and previous concepts and
criterion of thought generated by these challenges regress…
this earthquake is the element renewing the vitality of minds
and contributes in sorting ideas and masterfully constructs
the bridge through which societies move towards future.
Thus, the future of Egypt now depends on the ability of
existing organizations and sectors to respond to and interact
with the earthquake of minds and building such capacity is
what we called "Management of the Future". So, how could we
grasp its opportunities?
Philosophy of building and manage the future is a strategic
cycle that should be present in the programs for developing
Egypt at this stage. This is what I am trying to highlight and
give myself an opportunity to contribute even modestly
through this modest book to build capacities of the decision
makers (at all levels, orientations and patterns) in designing
its promising future, based on values of creativity, scientific
thought, reconstruction, justice and interconnexion, arming it
with tools of appropriate cultural change and granting it skills
helping it to deal with (political – administrative – cultural –
social – security) environment becoming more complex and
intermixed, which produced entirely new systems and
ideologies compared to what we experienced during the past
We are trying to work and contribute in developing the
production of sciences of changes and to be the precursors in
dealing with these sciences in this field and to set up a new
look on the nature of changes and explore the future and
predict its course through strategic leadership and its unique
specificities in managing organizations and capacity of
creating such organizations ready to face crisis, exceptional or
unexpected events – a direct management and not a reactive
one – and get ready to face them in order to deal with them
and limit its risks and threats and control them and exiting
from them towards future opportunities reflecting aspirations
of the society with all its communities and categories and
targeted elements including citizens and those who have also
the right to obtain services from leaders (each in its place) at
highly leveled standards, so they can feel the efforts deployed
to their profit – on one hand – and their dignity and humanity
– on the other hand.
This perception of the importance of managing the future has
led to the necessity to establish a kind of strategic coalitions
among a range of human sciences (such as management –
sociology – psychology – behavior) which will result in that
these sciences, integrated and reformulated theories will be
an integral part of the sciences of the future… aiming at
providing a scientific methodology to remind people
belonging to this homeland and ensure a real benefit from
changing and rooting on a scientific basis able to achieve the
security and civilizational change.
…pursuant to the requirements of events of January 52th 5111
we are still living the effects, only the urgency or rush may
settle the course and outcome of throes currently experienced
by the Arab World.
Change is a necessity, it is also a struggle. In the attempts to
reach the bottom of the current impasse, we have to realize
that at the bottom of the historical moment, we discover that
the continuation of the current situation is impossible because
it means further deterioration and also the fall of a nation
among the most ancient nations in History and in human
This is why we need "change", but change has its projects
which differ and vary – as we notice it now all over the Arab
World level where parties emerges in an incomplete form as
well as random coalitions and civil society random
associations – to an extent making the fight being a logical
consequence of the conflicting projects of change. These are
not the type of projects that enable a kind of participation, as
they do not represent solutions able to exist alongside but
final historical options of the type "Either…or…?"
Therefore the necessity of change and its conflicts coincides
and create this situation and this crisis. We have to carry out
this change and we must fight since we try to make the
The change proposed in the following pages is "the
Renaissance, the modernity and the Informatics" which
include Renovation and Development and the condition of
originality and authenticity… it is a project that is opposed to
projects of exiting from identity and cultural reference, and
confirms that the solutions comes out from the fact that the
nation belongs to its civilization and its capacity of true
Current protests or criticism or revolutions are the results of
long series of political, economical and social causes in each
country, at the regional level and global level as a whole.
Thus…they do not arise from a sole factor, even if the role of
impacting factors is not stable and even if in a single case
between the beginnings and the endings. In other words, these
movements did not occur as a result of a decision made by a
single group, whether internal or external and it is sometimes
able to decide the contrary, meaning the stop of the revolution
or the insurgency or the protest and decide, subsequently, the
return to a normal life, after having achieved the private or
general goals it was aiming.
It is not possible, of course, to discover the start of the
movement of the "Arabic Spring" through positions and
writings of the affected bodies… whether systems or
beneficiaries of such systems or even their supporters… It is
also impossible to rely on the conclusions of the alleged
protectors of human rights and freedom in the world…those
pretending to speak on behalf of the "world community" or
the international public opinion.
What occurs and continue in form of protest movements
whether huge or small, limited or extensive, looking like
insurgencies and maybe revolutions are the expression of a
"historical inevitability" whose stages cover the long and
sinuous history though directed generally– according to an
ascending line – towards freedom and human development
and reinforcement and validation of its gains, increase and
magnification of its achievements, and building new
foundations in the monument of its civilization on this unique
planet in this strange universe… is the one worthy to lead the
world and dominate it with its will.
In this regard we would like to draw the attention on the fact
that among the worst mistakes about understanding and
interpretation of the events – changes, insurgencies and
revolutions – is the confusion between the aims and the tools
used to achieve them. The most dangerous types of confusion
consists in establishing a relationship of similarity and
reduction between interests of power and categories and
social classes and between individuals who played
influential roles throughout the stages of turns, changes
When subjective factors overwhelmed and amplified in an
abnormal manner, there were abuse, confusion of the path
and huge damages. Deviation starts small then grows. Point
of contacts appeared and contacting links seemed at first look
geographically farther than we thought than being a purely
local Egyptian production.
The starting point, though it seems generally gloomy,
however the injustice occurring afterwards may go
beyond all limits and all rights and all objective facts.
We do not intend to judge the events of January 52th 5111
because History is not merciful to those who initiated it and
thought they have said the final and decisive work; as the
events continue and the sufferings are still occurring and the
baby still does not see the light… it is still in the womb of the
events… and most importantly there are doubts in
determining the legal father of the baby which leads us as
researchers to deepen our study in this direction considering
that we are an integral part and a pillar of the social system of
the State, in addition to our social inevitable responsibility
towards our follow citizens.
We intended through these digressions to assert the basis or
the objective nature of the unprecedented protest operation
that Arab World is still witnessing… and the confirmation of
such basis or essential factor does not negate other factors,
internal or external, political or economical, of security or
mood or even vendetta and psychological factors buried in the
depth of the unconsciousness in some segments of the society
and its categories, falling within the range of implications or
arising from the increase of sufferings.
We are always living in the middle of open conflict. It is
basically generated from a tendency in control and
domination and devoting them to the interest of social forces
aware of their interests in general or struggling for fighting
injustice and control and predominance and deprivation and
poverty and tyranny…
However the embalming of experiences and people on one
hand and reliance on transfer without criticism (which is
addition and deletion), and deviations and small interests on
the other hand have caused retractations and losses and
confusions, that confirmed once again the comprehensiveness
of the conflict and the contradiction that are in fact the real
"birth" of the "History", meaning progress, liberation and
civilization…this is what we sincerely hope from a purely
We would like, here, to highlight strategic joint element
(external environment – internal environment) between the
protest movements, the insurgencies and revolutions… and
also a major strategic difference.
Regarding the joint element it concerns displacement towards
freedom… and also the common is the attempt to exploit the
protest movement in order to serve aims of regional and
International influencing forces, fearing for their interests or
seeking for them, depending on the concerned country and its
The Syrian case represents a model of such context, as the
foreign interventions are increasing in a frantically race, in
addition to internal reactions burdened with seizures and
confiscations and intimidation and eager desire for freedom,
for participation and exit from the state of emergency and
exception to a state of permanent stability.
Regarding the difference, all this is growing next to what was
ongoing and still continues in matter of propaganda speeches
and hollow rituals, to build with the help of the efforts
deployed by writers and media figures and ordinary of
exceptional activists attempting to explain what is happening
and trying to justify it and giving it the true or counterfeit
legitimacy it deserves – each according to its agenda. All this is
taking place and offers us finally a state of hope and distortion
amidst great sufferings and sacrifices of the rest of the citizens
confirming what we said in the beginning.
Accordingly…it is necessary to free the large targets from
the small and selfish interests and inevitably free the
noble targets from the burden of mediators and tools,
particularly interests of individuals…to be noted that
revolutions are not achieved immediately and according
to a final pattern unchanged and irremovable…this is why
the true revolutionary patriots in the historical continued
and extended sense cannot rest… as world will continue
to oppress poor and weak people…and those people must
continue to fight and protest and the Revolution is not
merely a political concept of changing regimes but there
are scientific revolutions based on knowledge and culture
Importance of the Study
The importance of the study and its value is based on the
fact that it addresses an important topic and is
essentially linked to change and evolution such as the
social need thereof reflecting on the political systems
governing a State and the way of managing wisely its
It also highlights the importance of the research in
seeking for new horizons that should not be ignored,
particularly the necessity to understand the nature of the
stage which is consistent with the requirements of the
phase that Egypt is passing through after the events of
January 52th 5111 and an attempt to anticipate the
future through presentation of a part of the problems
and questions that would eventually create future
The importance of the study also consists in getting
acquainted with the concept of leadership and its role in
dealing with the crisis in the midst of which we are living,
as it one of the concepts widely expanding in our
contemporary society and is affecting in one way or
another all the aspects of life…
Since the language of our epoch consists in anticipating
future, in order to deduce before it happens what we
should do to face it in the best effective and efficient way
and if possible to participate in modeling it, it was
necessary to find a strategic leadership with special
management skills and genius in a very critical moment,
not only for Egypt but also for the whole Arab World; this
leadership should possess the capabilities to overcome
political challenges in the current crisis.
Putting forward a strategic vision that could help the
decision makers in dealing with future events with all
their implications and threats and seeking for promising
opportunities in the light of the experience of our long-
Problem of the Research
The problem of the research is that anyone who follows
the crises faced by Egypt since events of January 52th
5111 will find that there is an intellectual confusion that
hit most of those who made it and those who are
directing the current events.
This intellectual confusion that hit the Egyptian society
has resulted in a total unawareness or understanding of
the current events and the nature of the phase, which
affected naturally their behavior and conduct and
consequently made them lose the compass and a sound
vision of the future.
The absence of intellectual and psychological readiness
of the society enabling it to absorb such a volume of
information from the (visual – written and audio) media
in addition to the virtual world of course.
Besides an almost complete inability to learn from
previous crisis and accumulation of lessons that they
benefit from in order to avoid and prevent future crisis
that could result in a catastrophe completely ruining the
In this context, there is a serious lack of efficient
administrative leadership with creative capabilities and
well qualified intellectually and psychologically and
having cumulative experience enabling them to
overcome the crisis and control its consequences and
benefit from lessons and even re-investing them..
Aims of the Research
Looking forward to building a better society based on
knowledge and modernity through sufficiency and justice; no
doubt that this trend would have a direct impact on the citizen
and also on the regime, as well as on the methods of achieving
business, management and performance of responsibilities
The nature of current events we are living and their
Getting acquainted with the philosophy of change
through introduction to humanities (sociology,
administration and behavioral psychology.
In the context of these data, the evolution of the state
bodies, upgrading them and improving their working
methods become part of vital national requirements…
the administrative body in any system is its major nerve
and essential basis.
Getting acquainted with the leadership and its role
through their definitions and types and requirements
and importance in such phase.
Attempt to reach some results regarding the nature and
specificity of the organizations headed by creative
leadership for organizations ready to face crisis.
Understanding of the Crisis Management and being
acquainted with its major phases.
Monitoring and analyzing the main mechanisms of crisis
Getting acquainted with the way to manage the crisis.
Getting acquainted with the specificities and possibilities
of the executive management and the creative
Highlighting the role of creative leadership in crisis
management at different phases: strategic role and
Raising the potential and activating the static in the soul
to continue effort in training and education and research
and practicing and applying in order to create a
successful leader first in ourselves then in those we are
responsible for…the reform operation and assessment of
its services and developing its activities become a matter
of urgency and perhaps a duty… particularly since its
internal and external environment is passing through a
crucial stage of its history and existence.
Working out the strategy during the next stage after the
events of January 52th 5111.
I would like to say as a conclusion of this part (and if I may
express, the temporary exit from the scientific pattern of the
research), that the prevalence of negativity and indifference
and weak management and lack of discipline and contempt of
science and scientists and researchers and disrespect of
systems and laws, all these are environmental secretions
lacking in their composition, refusing change and opposed to
its achievement and preventing it from happening and
accepting stagnation and backwardness.
In Egypt we live an era of change and progress, an era full of
developments reinforced by technical and technological
changes, inventions and both communication and knowledge
revolutions, and an era of information…all of these represent a
very hard challenge for decision makers; this is why we
consider that getting acquainted with the change science and
its ability to achieve the change and control it in an
appropriate manner to reach the goals desired by the whole
humanity is essential and should be ignored. A change in the
features of the epoch and dealing with it has become
absolutely essential and is reflecting without any doubt the
true development of the mankind civilization.
Assumptions and questions of the study
In the light of the problem and aims of the study, this study is
based essentially on the assumption that: "there is an implicit
relationship between forecasting the future and readiness to
face it – through understanding the nature of the phase lived
by the country – understanding the changes that occurred in
the Egyptian society following the events of January 52th 5111
– and between the capacity of the leadership to deal with the
crisis situation and efficiency of crisis management"… this
study seeks to answer the following questions:
What is the leadership and what are its characteristics
and specificities and patterns and rooting scientific
theories? And what is the difference between them and
Nature of crisis and terminology and connected concepts
and how to manage them?
What is the role of the leadership in crisis management?
What is the crisis management?
What is the strategic leadership and what are its
What is the suggested strategy during the next phase
after the events of January 52th 5111?
The team preparing this research has used the descriptive and
analytic method and deductive approach which describes the
changes of the study through the study of the subject of the
study namely the leadership between reality and expectation,
and deduction of some results to find a scientific and
methodological mechanism to predict the future and present a
suggested strategy to find an opportunity through which we
may cross the tunnel of crisis generated by these events.
Tools used in this study
The researchers will use a number of major helpful tools as
well as the following general tools:
A number of books and researches and specialized
scientific and academic periodicals.
A number of scientific thesis
A number of cultural and social books and periodicals
concerned with the matter.
In this context we will try to access to the future through the
events we are living and analyze them in a descriptive way
based on a set of tools and scientific helpful and general
research tools in order to search their depths and understand
their motivations and their causes in order to reach
deductions and a set of recommendations and proposals.
The researcher faced a range of difficulties due to severe
time constraints which led us to take time and rights of
the family and this had a great psychological and social
impact on the family members.
The abundance of scientific material and the weight of its
scientific balance requiring us to read a large number of
books and references in order to find an original scientific
material enabling to count on it.
The proposed perception of the study
We have divided the study into four chapters…In the first one
we have addressed the leadership and started as a first step by
enumerating its definitions and specific concepts and
introduction to its study, and as a second step we highlighted
the leadership in the managing thought and types of
leadership and concluded with the third part representing the
ethics of leadership and its problems particularly in
In the second chapter that we devoted to answer to the special
assumption of the study, the nature of crisis and the
terminology and concepts connected thereof and the way of
managing them; and the role of leadership in managing crisis.
…We divided it into three parts, the first one concerning the
definition of crisis; the second part devoted to the leadership
and its role and mechanisms in crisis management and the last
part for the creative leadership in crisis management.
We dealt in Chapter three the strategic leadership and
divided the chapter into three parts, the first one to answer
the question of the research and study regarding the meaning
of strategy and what are its characteristics and patterns and its generating scientific
theories? And the difference between it and the management?
We then briefly went on in a digression we considered
important within the context of the research and its logical
narrative ideas to highlight in the second part the
comprehensive national strategy, its importance and essence
and the importance in relying upon… we concluded the
chapter with a last part presenting the role of data building for
the institution and its influence on its strategic planning.
The above rooting leads inevitably to the fourth chapter and
the answer to the last question regarding the study
assumption, namely the nature of strategy during the next
phase after events of January 52th 5111, and what are its
characteristics and what is the future vision we can offer for
such phase? And proposing a strategic vision based on this
leadership in two parts and finally concluding with a number
of results leading us to recommendations and proposals
hoping they will promote our deep-rooted organizations and
benefiting to the country …our beloved Egypt.
Possible vision for the contents of the Research
Importance of the research
Problem of the Research
Aims of the Research
Assumptions of the Research questions
Difficulties faced by the Research
Suggested vision of the Research
Chapter I: Leadership
Part One: Definition of the leadership and introduction to
the study of leadership management and management
Part Two: Leadership patterns and its ethics and problems
in developing countries.
Chapter II: Role of the leadership in crisis management
Part One: The Crisis
Part Two: Leadership and mechanisms of crisis
Part Three: Creative leadership in crisis management
Chapter III:Strategic Leadership
Part One: Strategy…Containment and planning
Part Two: Comprehensive national strategy
Part Three: Database building of the Organization and its
impact on planning
Part Four: Characteristics of the strategic leadership
Chapter IV: Security strategy during the next phase after
the events of January 72th 7122.
Part One: Security strategy
Second Part: Strategic vision of the future
Results of the Research
Finally…heritage of science in Egypt is rich with its men – the
Science – sparing no efforts in keeping up with its modernity
and managing its knowledge… I am personally convinced that
we are about to establish a human Egyptian
civilization…teaching the world as we did before…The
Egyptian civilization and leadership cycle is to come, God
Willing… We believe this is the ineluctability of change as it is
also the aspirations and wishes of peoples.
And since God only is perfect, we apologize for any mistakes
or unintentional omissions as we only wanted to be diligent in
presenting a modest study in an attempt through which we
could express what we have deduced from the current
moment we live…and to highlight the meanings of the events
and their philosophy…and specify their features and also shed
light on some social phenomenon that could help us
understanding the phase and prepare ourselves to new
coming events that could be more hazy and possible
catastrophic crisis…as well as the role of the wise and
conscious leadership in managing and dealing with them…and
deducing the future opportunities from learned lessons and
initiating anticipated mechanisms for events to come through
a strategic vision enabling leaders to achieve scientific and
knowledge roots deepening for the next phase…
Yahya El Zent
Notice: This research has enabled to obtain the
Grade of Management – Crisis Management from
the American University in Cairo on 72 August
Role of Leadership and
In Crisis Management
Applied to Revolution of
Prepared and presented by
Yahya El Zent
…To my late mother and father, may God have mercy on them…in commemoration..
…To my elder brother Dr. Saad, in gratitude…
…To my dearest wife and mother of my children Omar, Tareq and Nermine…in gratitude…
…To my wife's father Dr. Mohamed Nada and wife's mother Dr. Noha Shawky…in gratitude..
…To all those who helped me in this modest assumption…convinced by its importance…
We are all living now in a world of crisis, a world of major entities and major crisis and conflicting
interests. The more interests are increasing, expanding and conflicting, the more crisis are
generated and vary and intensify. History lessons have confirmed that at the same time where
major powers seek to impose their control and influence, there is a definite desire of the small
entities for independence and survival and growth… Such desires collide with the endeavors of
major powers, and this generates crisis.
Furthermore in the relationship of disagreement between administrative entities within a same
economical system and aspects of alienation existing between an individual and his work and
performance in the same employment, and between his ambitions in his activity and requirements
of behavior within a same social context and between the openness of thought and the variety of
its schools, all this was a reason for outbreak of crisis.
The majority of administrative decision makers in our country rely upon the administrative system
in a daily manner; they are involved and engaged in the routine life and their personal concerns,
seeking to manage their own needs, distracted from listening to the importance of the scientific
management in their administrative entities they are responsible of and refusing any new
approach to the management science.. Hence the emergence of our crisis and their deep impact
due to the fact that the decision maker lacks knowledge of the scientific roots and overwhelmed
by random, improvised and emotional factors; thus issuing unwise decisions leading finally to
harming the administrative entity.
Despite the occurrence of crisis is an old phenomenon, we gave it due attention only during the
past years as the crisis accelerated and diversified and intensified through sudden
transformations and vanished within time and space that separate entities which felt that no
matter how big they are they still work and interact with a world wider than their private world and
therefore the sense of the universality of the crisis increased whatever its specificities.
We are living in a world full of various crises: economical – social – cultural – moral.
World is a sole entity, economically, politically, administratively, culturally and socially connected
and interacting. Any administrative entity, whatever small sized is not immune against the effects
of crisis and events in the world. So, the use of scientific methods as a method for dealing with
crisis has become inevitable in order to avoid destructive consequences.
…Therefore, the management of crisis is a material, in-kind, moral and spiritual one altogether…
It is an interactive management, permanent and continuous, connected to the existence of a life
and will of developing progress whether for the working system or the State.
This is why the researcher considers that this scientific management is a one with inevitable
conflicting dimensions against inertia and ossification and against negativity and backwardness,
considered as the climate in which the crisis are emerging and interacting and expanding
ignorance and fear from taking decisions are the most important reasons leading to crisis since
the majority of crisis faced by the security organizations need a scientific and wise management to
get rid of them.
The epoch we are living in is full of crisis; the question to be asked is no more whether the crisis is
coming or not? But the question is what would do the Institution when the crisis arrives? This is
the philosophy of the research and the person conviction of the researcher, as the term of crisis
ranges among terms and daily life human concepts associated with the human being since
creation of the world as Almighty God said:" We created man in the liver [Sura of the country: 4]. It
is therefore a universal law bound by God to his creatures in Earth enabling them to seek for
satisfying their daily and personal needs and sounding the depths of the universe in all its aspects
and components and dimensions and Man will only seek knowledge in such elements if he falls
under pressure of need and craving desire… Except that we notice that a large number of leaders
ignore this reality; they think that their organizations are immune against crisis and that crisis
cannot, whatever it is, affect or harm the institution or surprise it at the time where this crisis is
effectively within its tissue and structure.
The past two decades was marked by the acceleration and depth and sharpness of global
transformations under which the different types of organizations are acting, and this leads to the
impossibility for the organizations and validated traditional planning methods to forecast in short
term and benefit from previous experience in planning for analyzing historical events. Such
mechanisms are no more able to face the challenges of the future and adapt to successive global
changes. Moreover, the relative importance of the internal criteria established by the organizations
themselves has decreased, compared to external criteria imposed and determined by the best
When human stray from his path and want to reach his goal he must have a map indicating the
features of the place he is located in then he needs a compass determining the orientations, and
without a compass or a guide indicating the path he is unable to decipher the codes of the map
and his presence becomes equal to nothing. The strategic planning becomes therefore the
compass guiding the organizations and indicating the right path they should follow…Some people
define it as being an organized effort to reach decisions and systems and strategic plans to
achieve the required benefiting goals and accomplish the aims of the institution namely the
satisfaction of the needs of the targeted category of agents.
Crises have resulted in serious economic losses and damages which affected hundreds of
communities and organizations all over the world. The crisis management became a major
obstacle in the path of these communities and organizations and their development. The positive
dealing with such crisis requires the integration of the crisis management and risks in
development plans equally in the States and Organizations, through relying on a developed
knowledge database and awareness of the decision makers.
Crisis management consists in managing the possible and attempting to control what is not
controllable. As it was proven by the past events, the crisis management is no more an optional
decision but has now an important strategic dimension imposed by the new facts generating
accumulated problems and transformed into catastrophes followed by crises or the contrary.
It is an invitation to all leaders and managers to learn not repeating the behaviors that generate
problems and crises, particularly those who are always sitting on hot tin; and despite all sufferings
they incur, they come once again and sit on it. The secret in the successful leadership in hot
positions and crises is to help us promoting a personal system of early warning in addition to use
of scientific methods to make quick and decisive decisions to prevent crises or reduce their effects
and control their movement.
In this research we present simplified data and experiences that can reach non-specialists or
immersed in behavioral and administrative sciences in the field of crisis management.
This research also presents some of the administrative and leadership arts during adversity and
crisis, as it shows us the way of achieving the best results in a climate full of changes and
unknown and leadership in difficult conditions. Confrontation of difficulties and crisis is not as easy
as we would expect amidst economical, political, social and religious growing and complex
In such conditions leadership requires the use of any available means with a clear vision of ways
and scientific means.
Despite all trouble I had to face while writing the subject of this research on crises and particularly
the available scientific sources, and simplification of the signification without prejudice to the
construction, I feel however that I contributed in providing the persons concerned by the research
and study and training with elements that could help them in their work and quest.
With the appearance of the strategic planning as the latest means of planning in the organizations
that led to the change of the ways of planning by these organizations in developing their own
strategies and implementing it. The strategic management has become an essential tool for the
organizations helping them to learn and develop if they want to elaborate a type of singularity and
efficiently respond to world accelerated changes. The term "Strategic management" is used to
express the same concept reflected by the strategic planning.
The first contemporary management scientist to deal in his management researches, the
Professor of Business History in the American Harvard University (Alfred Chandler) is the one
who dealt in his book published on 1965 the organizational structures of the big American
Companies and proposed four types of strategies related to development and evolution confirming
that the development and evolution of the organizational structures essentially rely upon strategy.
In year 1962 the professor of Management in the Ashton University (Joan Woodward) prepared
a research connecting the organizational changes with the adopted technical strategy.
In year 1976 (Wahlen Wahenger) exposed his concept of strategic management through a
research presenting a comprehensive pattern of strategic management; then came the two
scientists (Keiter & Trugo) involved in the field of strategy and asserting that it is the (driving
force) representing the field of products or markets or capabilities considered as the source of
strength of the society and constitutes the framework of its general strategy.
Given that the determination of the (driving force) contributes in formulation of the comprehensive
goals and aims of the constituent units under the assumption that the comprehensive goals
represent the link between the comprehensive strategy and strategies of their constituent units.
The book issued on 1982 by the Counselor in Mackenzie collection Professor (Omaya) entitled
(The strategic Mind) is probably representing one of the best researches in this field and had a
huge impact in the development of the contemporary strategic methodology in business.
In 1991 there was the theory of (John Thompson) on the development of the strategic
awareness, arising from diagnose of comprehensive change of the institution connected with the
strategic formulation centered around the determination of the path and how to reach the target…
He sustains in this field that the competitiveness and distinction of performance together with
creativity and invention constitute the three connected dimensions and in 1991 also, the Business
Counselor to the (Mackenzie) collection, Mr. Litchi Oh Mi published together with a team of
business professors a book entitled: The Strategy (underlining that determination of goals and
formulation of strategy should be done in terms of customers and commodities and added value
and not in terms of overcoming the competitor. He concluded with a presentation of what was
called the contemporary strategy that focuses on refinement and dedication and exploitation of the
talents of the Holding Company and its affiliated companies in confirming the core of competence
in order to concentrate the continuity of development within the new global environment.
In year 1995, the Professor in California University (George Webb) published a book where he
criticized the Multinational companies pointing out that they did not convert their global concepts
and have no comprehensive global strategy; he deduced after a long study namely referring to the
largest world companies (Coca Cola, MacDonald, Canon, Volkswagen) and concluded to the
necessity for these companies to change their concepts and methods in order to keep up with
changes in the world through mutual interdependence among branches of the company all over
the world to reduce expenses and stereotyping and benefit from self education.
Use of the strategic planning expanded on a large scale in different and organizations and their
activities and practical experiences of strategic planning operation proved that the organizations
involved in strategic planning have better performances than organizations without strategic
Strategic planning as a method of management differs from other types of efficient methods of
management in the fact that its essential principles and methods and theories have been
developed and enriched by a mixture of field experiments and specialized methodological
academic thought resulting from the need for developing performance of the organizations on the
long-term to ensure their survival and create vital conditions benefiting from the available
opportunities in an efficient way, relying on strategic planning as a genius scientific method to
Results of studies attempting to experiment the nature of relationship between performance or
organizations and adoption of strategic planning indicate that there is a positive relationship
connecting them. These studies have referred to the fact that the organizations strategically run
benefited from a performance surpassing the performance of organizations not strategically run.
Importance of the research:
The importance of the research is highlighted by the fact that the concept of the crisis became of
one the largest expending concepts in our contemporary society, and in some way affecting all
aspects of life… Since the language of the current epoch is a language of extrapolation of the
future in order to gather before it happens, what is necessary to face it with the highest degree of
efficiency and capacity; it was necessary to have a leadership with the skills required to manage
the crisis and the capacities enabling it to overcome the major challenges of the crisis namely the
surprise, the threat, the speed and the ambiguity.
It also highlights some concepts and considerations that should be taken into account within the
framework of the organization and be acquainted with mechanisms preventing risks and threats
faced as follows:
Societies in their different aspects should lead their orientations and undertake
organization and coordination between all categories of the society and its activities; this
leadership is reflecting in the society and gives it its specified character, whether good of
Stating the importance of the strategic planning to face crisis and dangers to which
organizations are exposed
Stating the modern approach of the strategic planning for organizations which is a
preventive approach, in other words the attempt to forecast what will happen.
Stating how to face crisis through its management
Stimulating officials, particularly the senior management so they may be aware of the
importance of adopting the method of strategic planning in facing crises.
Problem of the Research
The problem of the Research resides in that the person acquainted with the crisis to which
public and private organizations are exposed in Egypt or even the State itself, notices a
great similarity in the causes of these crisis or the existence of repeated patterns in
methods facing then, in addition to a nearly total incapability to learn from some crisis and
accumulation of lessons from which they may benefit in avoiding and preventing crisis. In
this context there might be a lack of efficient managing leadership having the creative
capacities with talents to manage the crisis as well as mental and psychological capacities
and a cumulative experience enabling them to overcome challenges of the crisis in order to
control implications of the crisis and managing it successfully and drawing profitable
lessons, and take advantage of some of its elements.
This research also aimed at being acquainted with the extent of practicing the strategic
planning in crisis management and its impact on facing crisis constituting an obstacle to its
growth and progress rather than reorienting it according to our will. This may be
summarized regarding the problem of the research by asking the following questions:
To what extend is the strategic planning concept clear in the mind of the leadership?
What are the factors to be taken into account when carrying out the strategic planning? And
what are the mechanisms and their availability to the leaders in charge of it?
It is therefore possible to say that the strategic planning is one of the means to prevent crisis and
one of the paths of searching for future opportunities…
To such extent that we may ask the following question… what is the value of the sound
planning in light of the absence of whoever enjoys the distinctive elements – vision and
capability – to make a decision and apply it and the courage to issue it so that it could
grasp the components of the future…firmly controlling – without neglect or outbid – the
tools and mechanisms of work and enjoying personal characteristics able to influence and
convince others and requesting their involvement and change of ideas to adapt with the
requirements of the current facts and expectation of future?...Planning without leadership
means chaos…as we will see hereafter.
In connection with the assumption of the research, the crisis management is a unique
business operation; as the organization is exposed to an unexpected event whose premises are
often absent – despite the fact of its accumulative causes – and it needs decisive measures and
quick decisions consistent with the gravity of the developing situation and consequently the
management holds the control of the initiative in leading events and influencing them and
orienting them according to the requirements of the situations…to avoid damages or to seize an
The leadership skill – we were referring to – resides in imagining the possibility of
changing the crises and its dangers to an opportunity to liberate the creative capacities that
exploits the crisis as an opportunity to remodel the conditions and find wise solutions; no doubt
that the positive orientation pave the way to manage the crisis and live and creative interaction
with the great faced challenge to the extent enabling it to transform the risk into an opportunity
that can be exploited and change the discouragement of the ordeal into a climate stimulating
the creative efforts.
This is the reason behind our assumption of: "the role of leadership and strategic planning in crisis
management; because I am convinced as a junior researcher, that a belief is reinforced by the
knowledge of the ancient world including its successful patterns and is reflected by the fact that
the leadership enjoying a strategic vision – and moreover – has the capacity of designing skillfully
a scenario for the future and having the elements of producing leaders enjoying charismatic
personalities and accumulated experiences and open minded and vast culture and a basis of
morality and values…is by all means a leadership capable of managing crisis and even exploiting
them to the interest of the organization or the institution or the State governing it.
…There is no reverse pattern we could present as an evidence of the soundness of our
convictions – From the events of January 52th 5111 we may say that we had leaders who lost the
capacity of dealing with the crisis because they lost the compass…the inevitable result
…unfortunately the new leaders are still unable neither to manage the crisis nor to take advantage
of its results …the matter concerns the equation of a country we are trying to decipher its strange
The management within any organization is always reflecting a dynamical attitude reacting
with the movement and containing complex attitudes. Management seeks to achieve
specific goals within the context of various conditions some of which help it and push it
forward (opportunity) and some others inhibits its action and constitute restrictions
The essential basis in this context is summarized by the fact that this complex attitude,
associated with a high degree of ambiguity and hesitation requires from the Organization
or the Institution special capabilities with double orientation; first it has to exploit the
available opportunities at a high degree of efficiency and effectiveness and simultaneously
seeking to avoid dangers and obstacles or elaborating a specific strategy to adapt with.
On such ground it appears that the strategic planning is going towards building specific strategies
aiming at establishing mechanisms capable of acting to use the available elements in the light of
various dangers and threats to achieve the principal targets of the Organization; we point out here
that this is among the most important priorities of the leadership when dealing with a crisis, on
attempting to prevent or abort of manage its elements and their impact. The aim of building up
such specific strategies is oriented to the achievement of the three following results:
Activate the ability of the organization in using its available capabilities in an efficient
manner leading to the implementation of the set targets.
Reduce the capacity of risks to restrict its work whether by facing them or suppressing or
freezing their effects on the strategy of the organization towards development.
Reinforcing its capacity of efficient management of the changes falling under its direct
The researcher considers that the strategic planning is one of the major elements of
management of organizations currently and the paroxysm in the results of the thinking
phase prior to the implementation of any action and reflects the vision of the leadership,
because the strategic planning is a chain of big and sound decisions that are forecasting
the future to achieve the general set up targets.
Therefore…in order to achieve a success in the strategic planning it is necessary to establish a
Determination of the major and clear targets, and arrange the agenda of priorities and provide a
great amount of material, human and judicial possibilities after carrying out a good assessment of
the general situation and prediction of the future eventualities and various conditions, provided it is
marked by comprehensiveness, realism, follow-up and that they are supported by mechanisms of
evaluation and self-assessment.
From what has been said above, we conclude that the topic of strategic planning if among the
most important matters since it is an organized effort to reach decisions and essential activities
and focusing on the future regarding the nature of the organization, its action and the reason of its
action, etc…, and an effective management tool helping the organization to implement its work in
a better way under all conditions to which it is exposed, and focusing on all concerned persons to
achieve the target itself, and assessment and analyzing the orientation of the organization and
responding to its changing environment. Furthermore, the assessment of the organization after
implementation of the strategic planning is the best way to respond to the dynamical conditions of
What is the impact of the strategic planning in facing crisis?
What is the extent of clarity of the concept of crisis management compared with the
concept of management in crisis or even handling crisis?
Aims of the research
- Understanding the meaning of Crisis Management and acquaintance with its major
- Specifying and analyzing the most important mechanisms of crisis management.
- Identification of the characteristics and capacities of the creative leadership and also the
- Focusing on the role of the creative leadership in crisis management through its various
stages: the strategic role and the technical role.
- Stir the potential and activating the static in the souls to continue efforts in training,
education, research, practice and application in order to create a successful leader in
ourselves and then in those who are relying on us.
- Identify the concepts of strategic planning and crisis management
- Stating the main factors that should be taken into account when carrying out strategic
- How can the strategic planning face the crises?
- Reaching some results regarding the nature and specificity of the organizations headed
by the creative leadership for the organizations ready to face crisis.
- Offering some suggested strategies to activate the role of leadership in crisis
Assumption and interrogations of the research
- In the light of the problem and aims of the research, this study is based essentially on the
assumption of: existence of a relationship between the prevision of the future and
preparation thereto – through strategic planning – and between the ability of the
leadership to deal with the crisis situation and efficiency of the crisis management:
- This research seeks to answer to the following questions:
What is the concept of a crisis?
What are the types of crisis?
What are the characteristics and phases of a crisis?
How to face a crisis and to plan for it?
What are the characteristics of the strategic planning in the organizations?
What are the major obstacles to the strategic planning in the organizations?
What is the effect of the strategic planning on the crisis management?
What is the extent of participation of the executive leadership in organizations in
setting up the strategic planning in this field?
What are the requirements for the success of the strategic planning in these
organizations in order to raise the efficiency of organizational performance and to
Methodology of the Research:
- In this research, the descriptive and analytical methodology was used to describe the
changes of the study namely the crisis management and strategic planning and strategic
leadership…and accordingly the analysis of these major and further changes to reach the
results of the study… We also relied upon some references and scientific researches
concerned with this topic.
The suggested plan for this research is:
Importance of the research
Problem of the Research
Aims of the Research
Interrogations of the Research
Methodology of the research
Chapter One: Leadership…theoretical introduction
- Part One: Leadership
- Part Two: Characteristics and talents of the leader
- Part Three: Strategic leadership and its characteristics
Chapter Two: Strategic Planning
- Part One: Concepts…requirements…advantages…justifications…patterns
- Part Two: Crisis Management
Chapter Three: The Crisis…Theoretical introduction
- Part One: Crisis – its nature – its dimensions – its characteristics
- Part Two: Crisis Management
- Part One: Strategic leadership of the crisis
- Part Two: Role of the creative strategic leadership in crisis management
Chapter Five: The Revolutionary crisis
- Part One: Revolution of January 52th 5111 – the causes
- Part Two: Stages of the revolutionary crisis.
How can it be…………………………..
Grasping future opportunities?
Name of the author:
Yahia El Zont
Grasping future opportunities
Name of the author:
Yahya El Zent
The Publisher Madbuly El-Saghir
54 El Batal Ahmad Abdel Aziz Street, Mohandessine
Tel: 77545434 – 77545435 – 77357735
Deposit Number at the Egyptian Book House: 7452/8353
T5 – Giza – Madbuly El Saghir – 8353
85x53 cm /???? pages
Copyright reserved to the Publisher
It is strictly prohibited to publish or transfer any part of the texts
published in this book or using it without obtaining a written consent
from the publisher.
The content of this book is the personal opinion of the author and on its
own full responsibility and does not reflect the opinion of the publisher
of the Publishing House.
Written and prepared by
Yahya El Zont
We live an epoch of raging conflicts and major
organizational failures, an epoch combining painful endings
and hopeful beginnings.
An epoch where everything that seemed deeply rooted is starting to get old and dying while
another thing is seeking to come up.
Or, if we refer to the words of the former Czech President and playwright "Vaclav
"There are good reasons suggesting that the modern era has ended and there are
many things showing that we are going through a transitional period and it seems
that something is on its way to disappear and that something else arises in pain; as
if there is something that crumbles, disintegrates and consumes itself, while another
thing not yet not clearly distinct arises from emerges from rubble, and the Arab
Individual that will ride the horse to win the race…
Looking forward to the 51st Century…he should read this book…the new century
requires a new person…a knight…intrepid and thinker.
A knight able to debate...to maneuver..a leader seeking for meanings and
thoughts…opening his mind and heart for renewal and innovation.
The new century needs a new man…daring…jumping barriers…entering new
A leader…optimistic and interacting… thinking electronically, a leader relying on
people… trusting them… employing global quality methods, engineering
management and data techniques. A leader concerned by future more than
Importance and aims of the book:
Philosophy of change
When we look at the world map and see the continents stable and forming a global
island surrounded by water from everywhere, we discover the magnitude of the role
required by the major changes… Earth was not divided in that manner and without
the trembling, earthquakes and cracks the Earth would have been a single mass
and we would not have seen this map as it is known nowadays.
And the cultural changes need in turn earthquakes to remodel the human civilization
and draw the brightest and noblest colors and granting it elements of hope and
And when States are facing the growing challenges and seek to engage into the
future, the intellectual earthquake becomes a must, as it requires a new modeling of
the mind and definition of possible and impossible changes and previous concepts
and criterion of thought generated by these challenges regress… this earthquake is
the element renewing the vitality of minds and contributes in sorting ideas and
masterfully constructs the bridge through which societies move towards future.
Thus, the future of mankind now depends on the ability of existing organizations
and societies to respond to and interact with the earthquake of minds and building
such capacity is what we called "Management of the Future" and consequently
grasping its opportunities.
Philosophy of building and manage the future is a strategic in the programs for
developing societies provided in this book to build the intellectual capacity of the
individual and societies in building their bright and promising future based on the
creative values and scientific thought and reconstruction and justice and linkage
and arming them with the tools of civilizational change.
We are trying to work for the development of building the change of science and to
be among the first to write in Arabic in these fields and to establish new theories
and visions on the nature of changes and forecasting the future.
This awareness of the importance of the future management led to strategic
coalitions between a group of human sciences (such as management and sociology
and psychology) which will lead to the fact that these sciences and theories will be
an integral part of the future sciences.
This book relies on some scientific and practical patterns of development, as its
theories are subjected to experiment and benefit from successful assessments.
Ideas and theories were discussed with specialists professors of Arabic and
international universities and activists on site and specialists in similar field of
To provide a methodology for youth thought and a real stimulation for change of
rooting under a scientific background building the capacities of societies towards
cultural change. We hope that this book will be a guide for the change lovers and
cultural transformation whatever the ideological differences of readers, their religion,
ethnic groups or nationalities.
1. Dissemination of the culture of change and developed thinking methodologies and
civilizational changing strategies.
5. Providing the scientific tools to contribute in occasioning cultural revolutions
in the world of sociological action.
3. Providing consultations to people and organizations seeking to develop their
Its role is to develop thinking methodologies in general. Even when tools of change
and development exist in a society, the mind is still reluctant to use them or is
inhabited with some thoughts preventing change; wright thinking methodologies
may exist but need support and deepening. Thus the importance of this book
resides on developing thinking methodologies with support of what is useful and
refinement of what requires treatment and eradication of what is not fitting with a
This topic is among one of the major studied themes and includes researches
connected with the provision of the mind with developed thinking methodologies
qualifying the societies to find futures appropriate responses to faced challenges;
consequently theses researches focus on elaborating the general cognitive map
and the essential intellectual premises and methods and thinking talents to anyone
who may confront the change operation.
Use of the latest clarifying scientific techniques achieved by the modern world.
Thus the research material exists from its frozen pattern to a model with which
masses interacts and demands in order to arise concern for the future sciences.
Did you think about your future?
Did you meditate the opportunities you can exploit?
Do you know yourself and your capacities which are the secret of your
Have you meditated the type of persons you are dealing with every day?
Have you forecasted the difficulties you will face under the new world system…and
the markets opening their doors to all imaginations and minds?
This book says that the authentic Arabic minds are able to continue the path until
the end and can also win…I hope, dear reader that you will be one of those
No doubt that the question of change has become one of the major topics in our current world, a
world of rapid changes, a world of non-stop process where those who do not follow
the path are delaying.
Since we are part of such process and that man is the creature to whom God has
granted the world, it is absolutely necessary to be influenced and respond to such
changes provided to protect our cultural, historical and religious specificities so that
we are able to preserve our identities and not to delay in the process of progress
and world we live in; we must also reacty with positive spirituality between
influencing and being influenced.
Change and preparation to it must be comprehensive and include human
necessities and requirements and also include all areas of life with their various
No doubt that regarding the principle, the change is made by human and for
humans and what they interact with, accordingly human is the major axis and the
essential tool in the same time in the changing operation in order to achieve the
aims of human kind.
We therefore consider that seriousness and aware will and goodwill are
indispensable for change with a balanced management; because the will of change
is the management of the human essence with all its specificities; therefore it is
essential to deal wisely and behave moderately.
Necessity of the change:
No doubt that change is extremely important; it’s a necessity for life itself;
therefore it must be a permanent phenomenon in all fields in our
economic, social and political lives and according to the following basics:
1. Productive interaction with the principle of change
5. Renewal and vitality in the application process
3. Grasping opportunities of creativity in all areas of life
4. Concern in global development including the various innovations
2. Supporting and encouraging desire for development and promotion
6. Training in reform processes and problem-solving
7. Strategic concern to production, through investment and
8. Using all technological methods and means in changing processes
9. Adaptation to the world innovations
11. Following the priorities of the stage with balanced connection
Means of change:
- We currently need absolutely getting acquainted with the science
of change science; this need requires us to determine the
- Carrying out the change requires awareness of its importance to
understand and explain and sensitize people responsible for
change. Those who prefer to hang on the present and the past
may represent a major obstacle in front of any reform effort
adopted by any institution in its planning, which requires inevitably
a clear orientation of these people regarding acceptance and
management of change.
- Organizing short training sessions for members of these institutions
– if change concerns institutions – so that such training sessions
enable them to get united around a common goal and vision and
consequently the means to adopt in performing their mission in
addition to determining methods through which they may provide
each other with its experience.
- It is necessary to study modern systems and management
structures particularly what was written and practically
experimented during the past two decades because they contain a
clear vision of the weakness of old methods offset by innovations
at all levels and human communities.
Propagation of negativity, disinterest, management weakness, lack of
discipline, mockery of science and scientists, disrespect of systems and
laws, are environmental secretions lacking in their compositions, refusing
change and opposing it and preventing their achievement and accepting
inertia and backwardness.
We are living an epoch of change, an epoch of efficiency and rise, an
epoch of continuous innovations supported by technical and
technological changes and inventions and also the knowledge and
communication revolutions…the epoch of data…all constituting a terrible
challenge to decision makers; we therefore consider that acquaintance
with the change science and its importance and capacity to produce
change and control it is appropriate to achieve expected hopes of human
kind and inevitable and should not be ignored. Change has become one
of the characteristics of the epoch and dealing with it has also become
extremely important and no doubt reflects the reality of human civilization
Notice:This book is entitled the Philosophy of change - Grasp of future
opportunities and is now available on market.
Perception of an initial proposal for the sections of the book:
Chapter I: Value of life and life as a value
Part I: Performance Art in a future perspective
Part II: Black Hole
Part III:Confrontation of the epoch
Chapter II: People are two types; of which type are you?
Part I: Know yourself
Part II: Foundation of the personal activity
Part III:Permanency of business and its preservation
Chapter III: Conflict of generations
Part I: Trees come out from seeds
Part II: Knight without horse
Chapter IV: Who are you…?
Part I: Keys of the personality
Part II: Patterns of personalities
Part III:Your alignments to your characteristics