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Risk Matrix, definition, theory and practice/DRM Series/Bijan Yavar

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Risk Matrix, definition, theory and practice/DRM Series/Bijan Yavar

  1. 1. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫دوره‬ ‫اﺳﺘﺎد‬:‫ﻳﺎور‬ ‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻨﺪس‬‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫دﻛﺘﺮاي‬ ‫داﻧﺸﺠﻮي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎت‬ ‫دﺳﺘﻴﺎر‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﮔﺮاﻳﺶ‬(‫ﺗﺠﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻮم‬ ‫داﻧﺸﻜﺪه‬ ،(GSB)‫ﻣﺎﻟﺰي‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻲ‬ ‫داﻧﺸﮕﺎه‬(UKM)‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻘﺎت‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫آﻣﻮزش‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﺎت‬ ‫ﻋﻀﻮ‬‫آﻓﺮﻳﻘﺎ‬ ‫ﺟﻨﻮب‬ ‫ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫اﻧﺴﺘﻴﺘﻮ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻜﺎر‬ ‫ﻋﻀﻮ‬)‫رﺳﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻮز‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎره‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬1834(‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﺒﺎﺣﺚ‬ ‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ‬ ‫از‬–‫ﺳﻪ‬ ‫درس‬
  2. 2. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،
  3. 3. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫ت‬ â)‫ع‬(à‫أ‬ ‫إ‬‫و‬َ à‫أ‬ àَ à‫أ‬ 9 á3‫إ‬ ‫ا‬ é‫ر‬‫ا‬‫ر‬6 5 ‫ر‬‫ا‬ à‫ا‬ à4 ‫و‬ 5 4 ‫و‬ 4‫از‬‫رود‬
  4. 4. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫نظر‬ ‫تبادل‬ ‫و‬ ‫بحث‬ ‫و‬ ‫مقدماتی‬ ‫تعارﯾف‬
  5. 5. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫و‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻣﻮل‬ ‫داﻧﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫آﻳﺎ‬‫ﺷﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫آن‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬‫اﺳﺖ؟‬
  6. 6. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬–‫ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺎر‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺎرﻳﻒ‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬x=‫آﺳﻴﺐ‬‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺧﻄﺮ‬‫در‬ ‫ارزﺷﻬﺎي‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮض‬
  7. 7. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬x=‫آﺳﻴﺐ‬‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺧﻄﺮ‬‫در‬ ‫ارزﺷﻬﺎي‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺮض‬
  8. 8. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫رﻳﺎﺿﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬
  9. 9. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬
  10. 10. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬:‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪاﻧﻴﻢ‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻣﻊ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻳﻜﭽﺎرﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﻃﻮر‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺷﺮﻛﺖ‬ ،‫اداره‬‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎﻳﻲ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬‫ﺑﺎ‬‫وﺿﻌﻴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ‬‫اﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫و‬‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫زﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪاﻧﻴﺪ‬‫ﺑﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﺪ‬‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫زﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺪاﻧﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫و‬‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﺪ‬‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ارزﻳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫روﺷﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎرت‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬
  11. 11. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎﺗﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻮدار‬‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﻢ‬‫ﻫﺎﻳﻲ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬‫وﺿﻌﻴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬‫دارﻧﺪ‬ ‫وﺟﻮد‬‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺑﭙﺬﻳﺮﻳﻢ‬
  12. 12. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫ﻳﻚ‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﮔﺮاﻓﻴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫اﺑﺰار‬ ،‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬
  13. 13. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫رﺧﺪاد‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﺧﻴﻠﻲ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻣﻜﺮر‬‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻧﮕﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺟﻌﻪ‬‫درك‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺴﻮس‬‫ﻛﻮ‬‫ﭼﻚ‬‫ﻧﺎﭼﻴﺰ‬‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬
  14. 14. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،
  15. 15. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،
  16. 16. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،
  17. 17. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،
  18. 18. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،،‫اﺑﺰار‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬‫ﻓﺮآﻳﻨﺪي‬‫را‬ ‫زﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻮارد‬ ‫ﺗﺮﻛﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬‫آورد‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ‬:-‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺷﺎﻧﺲ‬‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬‫روﻳﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬)‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬–POF()‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻ‬(-‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬‫روﻳﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫ﺻﻮرت‬ ‫در‬ ،)‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺨﻤﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﺷﻜﻞ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻ‬(-‫دﻫﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫ﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺎر‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻻ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫دو‬:)‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬=‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬(POF)) *‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬
  19. 19. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫روزاﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﻀﺎوت‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫اﺑﺰار‬‫دﻫﻴﺪ‬‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻳﻊ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫اﺑﺰار‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺎر‬‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬
  20. 20. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﺘﺮل‬:‫ﻓﺮآﻳﻨﺪ‬‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫درﺑﺮﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪه‬ ‫ﻛﺎر‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻛﺴﺐ‬ ‫و‬ ‫زﻧﺪﮔﻲ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻢ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬،‫دﻫﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺮار‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫اﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬ ‫و‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﻛﻢ‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎر‬‫ﻧﻜﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫رﻳﺰي‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫را‬–‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﭼﺮا‬‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ‬ ‫اﺗﻼف‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺣﺪ‬ ‫از‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺶ‬‫ﻧﻜﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫رﻳﺰي‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫آن‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻧﭙﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻪ‬ ‫را‬–‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﭼﺮا‬‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬ ‫ﮔﺮان‬ ‫ﺑﺴﻴﺎر‬‫ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫رﻳﺰي‬ ‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ‬ ‫درﺳﺖ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﭼﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺴﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﺗﺨﺎذ‬ ‫زﻣﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺧﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﮔﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺪون‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻋﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬.‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ‬ ‫ﺳﺎده‬ ‫اﺑﺰاري‬‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﻚ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫را‬‫ﻓﺮآﻳﻨﺪ‬‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬.
  21. 21. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،4‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﺧﺼﻮص‬ ‫در‬ ‫اﺳﺎﺳﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﺻﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﻮال‬‫ﻣﻴﺰان‬ ‫ﭼﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﻮان‬)‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬‫ﺑﺎﺷﻴﺪ؟‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫دارا‬ ‫را‬‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬:‫ﻣﺠﻮز‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺪودﻳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬SAP‫ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺪازﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﮕﺎﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬*(POF)‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬:‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎده‬ ‫ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﮔﻴﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﻀﺎوت‬ ‫از‬)‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي‬‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬:‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﺎن‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫واﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬‫ﺷﻮد‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﮔﻨﺠﺎﻧﺪه‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎرت‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻮرد‬ ‫دو‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬‫ﺳﺮﻧﺦ‬) :‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬=‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬(POF)) *‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬*POF=‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬=‫ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﺪدي‬0)‫اﻓﺘﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﻲ‬ ‫اﺗﻔﺎق‬ ‫وﻗﺖ‬ ‫ﻫﻴﭻ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬(‫و‬1)‫اﻓﺘﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫اﺗﻔﺎق‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬(
  22. 22. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫ﭼﻴﺴﺖ؟‬ ‫ﺷﻤﺎ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﻮان‬‫اﺧﺘﻼل‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬)‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬(‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬
  23. 23. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎزي‬ ‫ﭘﻴﺎده‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬
  24. 24. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎت‬1-‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬ ‫ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬ ‫ﻛﻠﻴﻪ‬ ‫اﺑﺘﺪا‬ ‫در‬2-‫زﻳﺮ‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻘﻪ‬ ‫ﺳﻪ‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﺗﻬﻴﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬:2-1-‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Natural Hazards)‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬N2-2-‫اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Social Hazards)‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬S2-3-‫ﺗﻜﻨﻮﻟﻮژﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Technological Hazards)‫ﺑﺎ‬‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬T‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺪي‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻘﻪ‬.
  25. 25. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺟﺰﺋﻴﺎت‬3-‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬ ،‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻘﺎت‬ ‫از‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻫﺮ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺘﮕﺬاري‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺑﺮدن‬ ‫ﻧﺎم‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬‫ﮔﺮدد‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻣﮕﺬاري‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ‬)‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬ ‫ﻃﻮر‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬:N12‫در‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫اﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻨﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬‫دوازدﻫﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬ ،‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬ ‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬)12(‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﺪ‬(.4-‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬ ‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻳﻚ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮان‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺷﺪه‬ ‫ﻧﺎﻣﮕﺬاري‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬ ‫ﻃﻮر‬(N12)‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎي‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬ ‫ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ‬ ‫و‬ ‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺘﮕﺬاري‬ ‫را‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬.5-‫ﺑﺪﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻴﺪ‬ ‫اﻧﺘﺨﺎب‬ ‫ﺳﺮﮔﺮوه‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮان‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﺧﻮد‬ ‫ﮔﺮوه‬ ‫از‬ ‫را‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪه‬‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﮔﺰارش‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮاي‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫آﺧﺮ‬ ‫در‬ ‫را‬ ‫ﮔﺮوه‬ ‫در‬ ‫آﻣﺪه‬
  26. 26. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫رﺧﺪاد‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﺧﻴﻠﻲ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻣﻜﺮر‬‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻧﮕﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺟﻌﻪ‬‫درك‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺴﻮس‬‫ﻛﻮ‬‫ﭼﻚ‬‫ﻧﺎﭼﻴﺰ‬‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬N12‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬(Natural Disasters)‫اﺧﺘﺼﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﻼﻣﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬N1-‫ﺳﻮﻧﻮﻣﻲ‬2-‫زﻣﻴﻦ‬ ‫راﻧﺶ‬3-‫ﺣﺸﺮات‬ ‫ﺣﻤﻠﻪ‬4-‫ﺳﻴﻼب‬5-‫ﺳﻮزي‬ ‫آﺗﺶ‬6-‫زﻣﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻧﺸﺴﺖ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺳﻮﺑﺴﻴﺪاﻧﺲ‬7-‫ﻫﻮاﻳﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫آب‬ ‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮات‬8-‫ﺣﺮارﺗﻲ‬ ‫ﻫﺎي‬ ‫ﺟﺮﻳﺎن‬9-‫ﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻃﻮﻓﺎن‬10-‫رواﻧﮕﺮاﻳﻲ‬11-‫ﻧﻴﻨﻮ‬ ‫ال‬12-‫ﻟﺮزه‬ ‫زﻣﻴﻦ‬ ‫ﻳﺎ‬ ‫زﻟﺰﻟﻪ‬N12‫ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﻨﺎﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﺑﺪﻳﻦ‬‫اﺳﺖ‬ ‫روﺑﺮو‬ ‫رﻳﺴﻜﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن‬‫در‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮه‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻮان‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻛﻪ‬‫ﺷﻤﺎره‬ ‫ردﻳﻒ‬12‫ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ‬ ‫در‬‫رﺧﺪاد‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﺑﺎ‬ ‫ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺨﺎﻃﺮات‬‫ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‬ ‫ﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬
  27. 27. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫رﺧﺪاد‬‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬‫ﻏﻴﺮﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﺧﻴﻠﻲ‬‫ﻧﺎدر‬‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ‬‫ﻣﻜﺮر‬‫ﺑﺤﺮاﻧﻲ‬ ‫اﻧﮕﻴﺰ‬ ‫ﻓﺎﺟﻌﻪ‬‫درك‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺴﻮس‬‫ﻛﻮ‬‫ﭼﻚ‬‫ﻧﺎﭼﻴﺰ‬‫ﭘﻴﺎﻣﺪﻫﺎ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮات‬N12N11N10N9N8N7 N6N5N4N3N2N1S1S3S2T1T2
  28. 28. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫آﺑﺸﺎري‬ ‫و‬ ‫دوﻣﻴﻨﻮﻳﻲ‬ ‫اﺛﺮات‬‫اول‬ ‫ﺣﺎدﺛﻪ‬‫دوم‬ ‫ﺣﺎدﺛﻪ‬
  29. 29. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫رﯾسک‬ ‫ماترﯾس‬ ‫سازی‬ ‫پياده‬ ‫تمرﯾن‬
  30. 30. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،‫تحقيقاتی‬ ‫ھای‬ ‫گروه‬ ‫نماﯾندگان‬ ‫توسط‬ ‫نتاﯾج‬ ‫ارائه‬
  31. 31. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،
  32. 32. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،1- The Australian Journal of emergency management, vol 16, February 2006-Australian Government, 2006.2- IAEA-Method for Developing Arrangements for Response to a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency-EmergencyPreparedness and Response-September2003-A-1400-Vienna-Austria.3- Classification of emergency management exersizes.Europe.20064- Jeffrey B.Bumgarner, (2008), Emergency management (a reference handbook), ABC-CLIO publications, USA5- ICS (Incident Command system)-Basic Independent Study course-Federal Emergency Management Agency-Emergency Management Institute-Jan1998-U.S.A.( IS195Comp).6- H.Mirzaei, B.Yavar M.Mirtaheri, The lessons learnt from Gonu Tropical Cyclone, IDRC2008, Davos, Switzerland7- H.Mirzaei, B.Yavar M.Mirtaheri, Lessons learnt from disaster management in Sistan drought along the worlds 7thinternational pond, IDRC2008, Davos, Switzerland8- The Australian Journal of emergency management, vol 16, Februaru 2006- Australian Govrnment, 2006.9- IAEA-Method for Developing Arrangements for Response to a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency-EmergencyPreparedness and Response-September2003-A-1400-Vienna-Austria.10- Classification of emergency management exersizes. Europe. 200611- Learning about Natural Disasters Games and projects for you and your friends-A stop disasters publication for theInternational Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction-IDNDR 1990-200012- B.Yavar, M.T Bagherizadeh M.Mirtaheri, “Lessons learnt from Tehran snow disaster management”, DMISA 2008,ATKV GOUDINI SPA, South Africa.13- Management of Dead Bodies in Disaster Situations, Disaster Manuals Guidelines series, No.5 –PAHO: PanAmerican Health Organization-WHO: World Health Organization-Washington D.C.,U.S.A.200414- VCA Training Guide – Classroom Training and Learning-by-Doing, (March 2008), International Federation of RedCross and Red Crescent Societies, Switzerland15- Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015, Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters,Extract from the Final Report of The World Conference on Disaster Reduction (A/CONF.206/6), International Strategyfor Disaster Reduction, United Nations, 2005.16- Amdabl, Gary, Disaster Response, GIS for Public Safety, (2001), Esri Press, Redland, California, U.S.A‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‬
  33. 33. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،17- Weathering the Storm, Participatory Risk Assessment for Informal Settlements, Disaster Mitigation for SustainableLivelihoods Programme, (2008), University of Cape Town, Periperi Publications, Cape Town, South Africa.18- Talking About Disaster: Guide for Standard Messages, Produced by the National Disaster Education Coalition: AmericanRed Cross, FEMA, JAEM.IBHS, NFPA, NWS, USDA Csrees, and USGS.19- ICS (Incident Command system)-Basic Independent Study course-Federal Emergency Management Agency-EmergencyManagement Institute-Jan1998-U.S.A. (IS195Comp).20- Emergency Incident Command system-Emergency Incident Commander - Job Action Sheet-FEMA-1998-U.S.A.21- Charley Shimanski-Public Information Officers in Search and Rescue Operations-Mountain Rescue Association-Educationcommittee-2004-Evergreen Colorado-U.S.A.22- FIRESCOPE (Firefighting Resources of California organized for potential emergencies)-Incident Command System-UrbanSearch and Rescue Operational System Description - (ICS-USR-120-1) - Jan 2004.U.S.A.23- FIRESCOPE (Firefighting Resources of California organized for potential emergencies)-Past, Current and Future Directions-A Progress report-1988-U.S.A.24- IAEA-Method for Developing Arrangements for Response to a Nuclear or Radiological Emergency-Emergency Preparednessand Response-September2003-A-1400-Vienna-Austria.25- What is NIMS and ICS, Dept of Homeland Security, 2005, U.S.A.26- Disaster Response: Principles of Preparation and Coordination, THE INCIDENT COMMAND SYSTEM, by Robert L.Irwin, 2004, U.S.A.27- HICS , Hospital Incident Command System- Guide Book , California Emergency Medical Services Authority (EMSA),California , U.S.A , August 200628- Neighborhood Disaster Volunteers NDV- NDV Resource Package – Part 2: Program Manager’s Handbook, (2005), SwissAgency for development and Cooperation (SDC)29- Neighborhood Corps Pocket Guide, A Citizen’s Guide to Organizing Communities for Emergency Preparedness andResponse. A Program of DC Citizen Corps.Washington DC Neighborhood Corps.Washington.2004.30- ICS (Incident Command system)-Basic Independent Study course-Federal Emergency Management Agency-EmergencyManagement Institute-Jan1998-U.S.A.( IS195Comp).31- Emergency Incident Command system- Emergency Incident Commander -Job Action Sheet-FEMA-1998-U.S.A.‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‬
  34. 34. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،32-‫آدرس‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺎرﺳﻲ‬ ‫زﺑﺎن‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫اﻳﻨﻔﻮﮔﺮاﻓﻴﻚ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﺼﺼﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺟﻊ‬ ‫ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ‬:www.infographics.ir33-‫ﭼﺎپ‬ ،‫ﭼﺎﺑﻬﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫داﻧﺸﮕﺎه‬ ،‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬ ‫در‬ ‫ﺣﺎدﺛﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻣﺎﻧﺪﻫﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻣﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﺑﺮ‬ ‫اي‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ‬ ،‫ﻣﻴﺮﻃﺎﻫﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺜﻢ‬ ،‫ﻳﺎور‬ ‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬‫اول‬1388‫ﺗﻬﺮان‬ ،.35-‫ﺳﻠﻮارﺟﻮ‬ ،‫ﺑﺎس‬ ‫اﺳﺘﻔﺎن‬ ‫ﺗﺪوﻳﻦ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﻬﻴﻪ‬ ،‫راﻫﻨﻤﺎ‬ ‫ﻛﺘﺎب‬ ،‫ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻤﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ‬ ،‫ﺑﺤﺮان‬ ‫از‬ ‫ﻧﺎﺷﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫اﺣﺘﻤﺎل‬ ‫ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ‬‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬ ‫ﺗﺮﺟﻤﻪ‬ ‫ﮔﺮوه‬ ،‫ﻳﺎور‬ ‫ﺑﻴﮋن‬ ‫زﻳﺮﻧﻈﺮ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻓﺎرﺳﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺘﻮاﻳﻲ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﻓﻨﻲ‬ ‫وﻳﺮاﻳﺶ‬ ،‫ﺑﺎﺗﻴﺴﺘﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﺪرﻳﻜﺎ‬ ،‫دﻳﭙﺮﻳﻚ‬ ‫دي‬ ‫ﺟﻴﻨﻲ‬ ،‫راﻣﺎﺳﺎﻣﻲ‬، ‫اول‬ ‫ﭼﺎپ‬ ،‫ﭼﺎﺑﻬﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﻴﻦ‬ ‫داﻧﺸﮕﺎه‬ ‫اﻧﺘﺸﺎرات‬ ،‫ﻣﻬﺮﻳﺎن‬ ‫ﻓﺎﻃﻤﻪ‬ ،‫ﻣﻴﺮﻃﺎﻫﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺜﻢ‬ ،‫رﺣﻤﺎﻧﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻳﻢ‬ ،‫ﻳﺎور‬1389‫ﺗﻬﺮان‬ ،.36-2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ‬
  35. 35. ‫ﺧﻄﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮي‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺮﻳﺲ‬)‫رﻳﺴﻚ‬(‫ﻋﻤﻞ‬ ‫و‬ ‫ﺗﺌﻮري‬ ،‫ﺗﻌﺮﻳﻒ‬ ،35‫دﻳﺪار‬ ‫اﻣﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ‬

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