1. SNS3 (GREE, DeNA,mixi)
2010/02/17
1

2. GREE,DeNA,mixi
,IR
2

3. Agenda
✤ DCF Overview
✤ SNS3
✤
✤ Valuation
✤ QA
3

4. DCF Overview
✤ FCF
✤
✤
✤ etc
✤ etc
4

5. God is no where.
( )
5

6. God is no where.
( )
God is now here.
( )
5

7. GREE,DeNA,mixi 3
GREE DeNA mixi
2004 12 1999 3 1999 6
2004 2 2006 12 ( ) 2004 2
139 376 120
83 158 37
2,036 3,217 822
2008 12 2005 2 2006 8
/
1
102 574 226
6

8. GREE,DeNA,mixi 3
GREE 10 DeNA 10 mixi 7
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
7

9. GREE,DeNA,mixi 3
GREE DeNA mixi
59.79% 16.87% 59.10%
7.14%
14.84% 2.05%
7.14%
5.73%
3.98% 2.04%
2.65% 4.60% 1.65%
2.03% 4.19%
1.47%
1.78%
1.35%
3.67%
0.97% 1.20%
3.58%
1.04%
0.97% 3.20%
0.78%
0.95%
0.52%
2.97%
2.94% 0.52%
87.47% 62.59% 71.72%
8

10. GREE
9

11. GREE
SNS( )
+
( )
10

12. GREE
2005/06 2006/06 2007/06 2008/06 2009/06 CAGR
( )
( )
( )
CF( )
CF( )
FCF( )
CF( )
11

13. #%&& $'
!""
%!!""
'!!""
(!!""
)!!""
$*!!!""
$*%!!""
$*'!!""
$*(!!""
$*)!!""
%!!(+!$"
GREE
GREE
%!!(+!&"
•
•
•
%!!(+!#"
%!!(+!,"
%!!(+!-"
%!!(+$$"
%!!,+!$"
PV
%!!,+!&"
%!!,+!#"
()**
%!!,+!,"
%!!,+!-"
PV
%!!,+$$"
./
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0"
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#!"
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&!!"
!" # !"$
12

14. GREE
GREE
!(#$ !"#$ !%
!"#$ %#$ !%)!*
%&#$ '(#$
&"#$
20 77
13

15. GREE
*$!!!""
)$!!!""
$%
($!!!""
!"##
'$!!!""
&$!!!""
%$!!!""
#$!!!""
!""
%!!+,#" %!!+,%" %!!+,&" %!!+,'" %!!-,#" %!!-,%" %!!-,&" %!!-,'" %!#!,#" %!#!,%"
14

16. GREE
15

17. GREE
✤ SNS
✤ 2008
✤ PV
✤ 20
✤ ( )
16

18. DeNA
17

19. DeNA
Web
SNS+
18

20. DeNA
19

21. DeNA
-./
'#$!!!$!!!""
'!$!!!$!!!""
&#$!!!$!!!""
80
"#
&!$!!!$!!!""
95
!
%#$!!!$!!!""
%!$!!!$!!!""
#$!!!$!!!""
!""
&!!#(!)" &!!)(!)" &!!*(!)" &!!+(!)" &!!,(!)"
20

22. DeNA
PV
!"
-."
%$*!!"" #!$!!!""
%$)!!"" (#$!!!""
%$(!!"" (!$!!!""
'#$!!!""
%$&!!"" PV
!"$
$%
'!$!!!""
%$!!!""
&#$!!!""
#
!"#
*!!""
&!$!!!""
)!!""
%#$!!!""
(!!"" %!$!!!""
&!!"" #$!!!""
!"" !""
!) !&
!) !(
!) !)
!) !*
!) %!
!) %&
!+ !&
!+ !(
!+ !)
!+ !*
!+ %!
!+ %&
!* !&
!* !(
!* !)
!* !*
!* %!
!* %&
!, !&
!, !(
!, !)
!, !*
!, %!
!, %&
21

23. DeNA
*!!!"
)!!!"
(!!!"
'!!!"
$
!"##
&!!!"
%!!!"
$!!!"
#!!!"
!"
$!!)+#" $!!)+$" $!!)+%" $!!)+&" $!!*+#" $!!*+$" $!!*+%" $!!*+&" $!!,+#" $!!,+$" $!!,+%"
22

24. DeNA
$%
!)% !+!% )(++%
!!%
'!% '!%
!"##
&$!"% &"+)% )+*%
&)*(% !")#%
&"*'% &!++%
!+&+% +'$% !$$!%
!!)!%
!*(&% !)$*% !!#+% !&"&% '"+% !+($% +&"%
!')#%
!"#$% !&!'% !&(#% !!)*% !"&'% !!&(%
$)'%
&""+,$% &""#,!% &""#,&% &""#,)% &""#,$% &""',!% &""',&% &""',)%
23

25. DeNA
( )
&" #" !"
&""-'
,"-'
+"-'
$"-'
."-'
)"-'
("-'
!"-'
#"-'
&"-'
"-'
!"" ("" )"" &*""" &*)""
#""$%"#%"&' #""$%!%&"' #""$%)%&"' #""+%(%&"' #"",%,%&('
!" +-' &#-' &!-' #"-' #)-'
#" !"-' !#-' !(-' ("-' (!-'
&" .#-' ).-' )!-' ("-' !&-'
24

26. DeNA
✤ 2009 10 4
etc
✤ 3−4 PV (200 →450 )
✤
✤ (1 )
25

27. DeNA
✤ ( )
✤ ( )
✤ PV
✤
✤
✤
26

28. mixi
27

29. mixi
•mixi( (mixi
))
•Find Job!( )
28

30. mixi
29

31. mixi
-./. -./.
(#$!!!""
(!$!!!""
$
'$!!!""
!"##
&$!!!""
mixi 86
%$!!!""
#$!!!""
!""
#!!)*!+" #!!'*!+" #!!,*!+"
-./. +$%&+"" '$(&+"" (!$%+(""
-./. %(&"" 0,%"" ))!""
($+&'"" ($#,0"" '0!""
30

32. mixi
mixi PV
&'(' !"
-."/-01" -."/2345671"
%,!!!"" %#!"
$,*!!"" mixi
$,&!!"" %!!"
$,+!!""
PV
$
$,%!!"" $#!"
!"# !"$%
$,!!!""
#
*!!"" $!!"
&!!""
+!!"" #!"
%!!""
!"" !"
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!(
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!)
31

33. mixi
)!"!#$
(%"!#$ !"#$%&
(!"!#$ '(#)%&
'%"!#$
'!"!#$
&%"!#$
&!"!#$
%"!#$
!"!#$
&%*&+$&,*&-$'!*')$'%*'-$(!*()$)%*(-$)!*))$)%*)-$ %!*$
!"#"$%
"!#"$%
20
90%
32

34. mixi
mixi
•2009 8 SAP 460 PC:780, Mobile:330
• ( (449 ) (342 )
(217 DeNA ))
• PV ( 159 → 227 )
•SAP PV (mixi2 SAP8 )
SAP
mixi
33

35. mixi
✤ mixi
✤ PC PV Mobile PV
✤ mixi Mobile PV
✤ 90
✤ mixi
✤ SAP
34

36. GREE DeNA mixi
,
( )
GREE Connect mixi
2010 1
2010 2009 8
PV ,PC
35

37. :'/-()
) *+,+ 56'-%()
0123 54'4;()
45'54()
2"7839 ) *+,+ %/'&.()
0123 4%'%/()
4.'4()
*+,+ -/'.()
0123 5&'6() &;';.(
) *+,+ 4-'46(
0123 %5'-4()
!"#$
%&'&() %4'6%)
*+,+ -.'/() *+,+ :'.4
0123 45'6() 0123 &':&)
-'5/ 4'6%)
*+,+ 6';- *+,+ .'5:
0123 -'5/) 0123 :'.&)
36

38. ! "
!%
!""
#!!""
$!!""
%!!""
&!!""
'(!!!""
'(#!!""
'($!!""
'(%!!""
'(&!!""
#(!!!""
!#
!%
!$
!%
!%
!%
!&
!%
!%
'! •GREE
'#
!)
!#
!)
•DeNA mixi
!$
!)
!%
+,--"
!)
!&
!)
'!
!)
'#
!&
./01"
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!&
!$
!&
!%
!&
2343"
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!*
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!%
!*
!&
!*
'!
!*
'#
37

39. !"
-./.0123# -./.0 45660 3# 45660123#
(!!"!##
'$!"!## •2009 GREE (CM )
'!!"!## • mixi
&$!"!## • GREE
!"$%
&!!"!##
#
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%$!"!##
%!!"!##
$!"!##
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!&
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!+
!*
!*
!*
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!,
!,
!,
!,
!,
!,
38

40. 39

41. DCF
40

42. DCF
↓
( )
10 15
40

43. 2008
9,091 ( 75.3
13 39 95%
75.4%
20 40 90%
↓
41

44. 2008
6,983
913 ( 147 )
1,610 ( 114.0
170 ( 200%)
42

45. ( ) GREE
15%( 15% 0 )
3 4 2000 3000
85
5
2012 ,PV
0.5%
43

46. ( ) DeNA
15%( 15% 0 )
2−3 30
2
5
2012 ,PV
0.5%
44

47. ( ) mixi
15%( 15% 0 )
mixi
mixi SAP
5
2012 ,PV
0.5%
45

48. (2/12 )
GREE 3,561 4,840 -26%
DeNA 374,436 657,000 -54%
mixi 210,981 517,000 -59%
46

49. →
→
→ 66 ” ”
(DeNA,mixi) M&A???
→
47

50. ↓
IR ( )
GREE > DeNA > mixi
GREE
48

51. XBRL
DB
( )
49

52. Q&A
http://valuation-note.blogspot.com/
50