1. 2008 Product Development Actuary Symposium The Changing Face and Pace of Mortality: An Enlightened View of Annuitant Mortality Yuhong (Jason) Xue , FSA, MAAA May 5, 2008

3. Measurement of Current Mortality Experience

7. E[ Y ] =  = g ( X   ) -1 Observed thing (data) Some function (user defined) Some matrix based on data (user defined) as per linear models Parameters to be estimated (the answer!) Generalised linear models

11. Example 1: Effect of Annuity Amount Results show evidence of reduced mortality with increased benefits

12. Example 2: Calendar Year Trend Mortality improvements 1% per annum over previous six years

13. Example 3: The Selection Effect Selection effect is not conclusive

14. Example 4: Birth Cohort Effect No Cohort Effect for male and Female

15. Example 5: Effect of Joint Life Status Evidence of “broken heart syndrome” which may influence pricing

17. Development of Mortality Improvement Trend

28. Factors “true” Weights Applied to Standard Mortality Table to Arrive at Mortality Assumption Standard Table Table for Income>50k & Single