Finding   New   Opportunities  in  Media   Convergence Chris Deering XML Wellington NZ – May, 2008
The Biggest Trends of the Decade <ul><li>Communities escape geographic shackles </li></ul><ul><li>Remote data storage skyr...
Broadband Speed by Country – mbps as of April 2008  - national average 30 <ul><li>-  S   Korea   48 </li></ul><ul><li>-  F...
Understanding Scale Number of MySpace Members Lifetime Global PS2 Sales Units Daily “YouTube” videos watched Size of annua...
Entertainment spending – USA example <ul><li>Annual Spending per Household </li></ul><ul><li>-  Basic cable/satellite subs...
Understanding Scale… Where is the Money? <ul><li>  % of world </li></ul><ul><li>EXPORTS   IMPORTS  </li></ul><ul><li>  (to...
Think “experiences” <ul><li>What experiences come to mind? </li></ul><ul><li>WAP </li></ul><ul><li>iPod </li></ul><ul><li>...
Opportunities in New Experiences Revolution in user interfaces and input  including voice Mobile phone communities go mass...
The Expanding Reach of Mobile Networks create massive mobile social networks <ul><li>Mobile phones become “all in one” dev...
GPS in Phones, dog collars, car keys <ul><li>It costs $5 to add GPS to a mobile handset </li></ul><ul><li>In 2007 10mm pho...
Advertising on Mobile Devices.. It’s just the beginning <ul><li>So far, largely untapped, and tricky, regulated (consumer ...
Video is everywhere.. In Hi Def.  Live, and on every screen.  Any time.  All the time. <ul><li>The term “TV” ceases to be ...
TV over Internet will replace most viewing <ul><li>Projected US Online Content Spending </li></ul><ul><li>Video/TV on dema...
Open Access Linux Devices will rule <ul><li>Global Installed base of Linux devices  </li></ul><ul><li>2008   2009   2010  ...
Mobile Television Subscribers/Users will grow in both Digital and Analog modes <ul><li>2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   ...
Mobile Learning Market  3G, Wi-Fi and WIMAX Networks Sexy User Interfaces and remote storage Community and Collaboration A...
Finding Opportunities Spot the trend Help the trend to move faster by your idea Help the experience feel more enjoyable.  ...
Start your own new media business..! <ul><li>You can FAIL without trying…  But you cannot SUCCEED without trying. </li></u...
Don’t assume you are too late <ul><li>There IS such a things as    “  first   mover   disadvantage !” </li></ul>
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Wellington, May 2008 Final Version

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Wellington, May 2008 Final Version

  1. 1. Finding New Opportunities in Media Convergence Chris Deering XML Wellington NZ – May, 2008
  2. 2. The Biggest Trends of the Decade <ul><li>Communities escape geographic shackles </li></ul><ul><li>Remote data storage skyrockets </li></ul><ul><li>Global virtual currencies </li></ul><ul><li>Broadband becomes mega-band and blankets the world </li></ul><ul><li>Education, medicine and government become collaborative and connected with the mass market </li></ul><ul><li>Classrooms become conference rooms </li></ul><ul><li>Work and shopping travel become more scarce </li></ul>
  3. 3. Broadband Speed by Country – mbps as of April 2008 - national average 30 <ul><li>- S Korea 48 </li></ul><ul><li>- Finland 28 </li></ul><ul><li>- Sweden 18 </li></ul><ul><li>- Netherlands 8 </li></ul><ul><li>- Portugal 8 </li></ul><ul><li>- Norway 7 </li></ul><ul><li>- Austria 7 </li></ul><ul><li>- Belgium 6 </li></ul><ul><li>- Germany 6 </li></ul><ul><li>- Denmark 5 </li></ul><ul><li>- Italy 3 </li></ul><ul><li>- UK 2 </li></ul><ul><li>- Spain 1 </li></ul><ul><li>The differences are huge </li></ul>
  4. 4. Understanding Scale Number of MySpace Members Lifetime Global PS2 Sales Units Daily “YouTube” videos watched Size of annual PC market units Size of Global Mobile Handset Market in Annual Units 1.3 Billion 100+ 100+ 100+ 100 100 millions
  5. 5. Entertainment spending – USA example <ul><li>Annual Spending per Household </li></ul><ul><li>- Basic cable/satellite subscriptions $ 475 </li></ul><ul><li>- Video/DVD purchases $ 250 </li></ul><ul><li>- Cinema tickets $ 80 </li></ul><ul><li>- Video rental $ 70 </li></ul><ul><li>- Pay per view/VOD $ 65 </li></ul><ul><li>- Pay cable/satellite channels $ 60 </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>$1, 000 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>Understanding Scale
  6. 6. Understanding Scale… Where is the Money? <ul><li> % of world </li></ul><ul><li>EXPORTS IMPORTS </li></ul><ul><li> (total: $14 trillion) </li></ul><ul><li>Germany 9.5 7.5 </li></ul><ul><li>China 8.8 6.7 </li></ul><ul><li>USA 8.4 14.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Japan 5.1 </li></ul><ul><li>France 4.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Holland 4.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Italy 3.5 </li></ul><ul><li>UK 3.1 </li></ul><ul><li>S Korea 2.9 </li></ul><ul><li>Russia 2.6 </li></ul>
  7. 7. Think “experiences” <ul><li>What experiences come to mind? </li></ul><ul><li>WAP </li></ul><ul><li>iPod </li></ul><ul><li>iPhone </li></ul><ul><li>Blackberry </li></ul><ul><li>Google </li></ul><ul><li>Amazon </li></ul><ul><li>Facebook </li></ul>
  8. 8. Opportunities in New Experiences Revolution in user interfaces and input including voice Mobile phone communities go massive + global “ New Experiences ” Impact Information , Employment and Entertainment Monetisation of streaming unleashes ” the long tail of live “ “ Concierge ” services abound as “ Time ” becomes precious commodity Females become the biggest paying audience on the web Ubiquitous screens and HiDef redefine “TV” GPS on mobiles and “ location aware ” servers
  9. 9. The Expanding Reach of Mobile Networks create massive mobile social networks <ul><li>Mobile phones become “all in one” devices </li></ul><ul><li>Handheld social networks grew from 30mm to 55mm (’06-’07) </li></ul><ul><li>2012 estimates range from 400mm to 800mm </li></ul><ul><li>Primarily 18-35 </li></ul><ul><li>60/40 male/female .. Initially </li></ul><ul><li>“ kindred spirits” </li></ul>
  10. 10. GPS in Phones, dog collars, car keys <ul><li>It costs $5 to add GPS to a mobile handset </li></ul><ul><li>In 2007 10mm phones had a GPS module </li></ul><ul><li>In 2008 110mm phones will have GPS </li></ul><ul><li>In 2012 you guess.. </li></ul><ul><li>IMAGINE THE NEW EXPERIENCES! </li></ul>
  11. 11. Advertising on Mobile Devices.. It’s just the beginning <ul><li>So far, largely untapped, and tricky, regulated (consumer must enable) and small screen </li></ul><ul><li>But, “as all in one” devices proliferate, mobile advertising will become a new industry </li></ul><ul><li>Global ads on handsets was $870mm in ’07 </li></ul><ul><li>In ’08, this will grow to $1.4 billion </li></ul><ul><li>There is over $400 billion more in global ad spending that can migrate to this medium </li></ul>
  12. 12. Video is everywhere.. In Hi Def. Live, and on every screen. Any time. All the time. <ul><li>The term “TV” ceases to be used </li></ul><ul><li>You can watch anything you want. Its all there. </li></ul><ul><li>User generated, live events, and everything ever recorded </li></ul><ul><li>Advertisers know what you are watching and where you are when you watch </li></ul><ul><li>You won’t have the time to check guides </li></ul><ul><li>You will need advice </li></ul><ul><li>From a source you trust.. </li></ul><ul><li>Before you think of asking for it </li></ul><ul><li>HOW WILL THIS HAPPEN? CAN YOU HELP? </li></ul>
  13. 13. TV over Internet will replace most viewing <ul><li>Projected US Online Content Spending </li></ul><ul><li>Video/TV on demand Games </li></ul><ul><li>2006 $ 0.29 billion $ 0.65 billion </li></ul><ul><li>2007 0.75 1.04 </li></ul><ul><li>2008 1.48 1.15 </li></ul><ul><li>2009 2.57 2.09 </li></ul><ul><li>2010 4.29 2.50 </li></ul>
  14. 14. Open Access Linux Devices will rule <ul><li>Global Installed base of Linux devices </li></ul><ul><li>2008 2009 2010 2011 </li></ul><ul><li>millions 131 227 337 523 </li></ul><ul><li>% by area: </li></ul><ul><li>Americas 8% 10% 11% 12% </li></ul><ul><li>Greater Eur. 16 17 17 18 </li></ul><ul><li>China/India 52 48 46 45 </li></ul><ul><li>ME/Africa 3 5 6 7 </li></ul><ul><li>Asia/Pac 21 20 19 18 </li></ul>
  15. 15. Mobile Television Subscribers/Users will grow in both Digital and Analog modes <ul><li>2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 mm </li></ul><ul><li>Analog 20 110 170 210 260 </li></ul><ul><li>Digital 75 90 130 180 220 </li></ul><ul><li>TOTAL 95 200 300 390 480 </li></ul>
  16. 16. Mobile Learning Market 3G, Wi-Fi and WIMAX Networks Sexy User Interfaces and remote storage Community and Collaboration Applications Content Creation & Conversion Tools More powerful devices & browsers Mobile Collaborative Learning Source: Ambient Insight
  17. 17. Finding Opportunities Spot the trend Help the trend to move faster by your idea Help the experience feel more enjoyable. Decide the trend that YOU will set.. Then add energy!
  18. 18. Start your own new media business..! <ul><li>You can FAIL without trying… But you cannot SUCCEED without trying. </li></ul><ul><li>Develop a mission to disrupt and improve the status quo. Make a real, detailed plan and get started. The plan will change, but there must be a plan. </li></ul><ul><li>Live for your mission. Evangelise your mission. </li></ul><ul><li>Know that there will be failure and be grateful for failure. It breeds new solutions and new ideas. </li></ul><ul><li>And ultimately, SUCCESS. </li></ul>
  19. 19. Don’t assume you are too late <ul><li>There IS such a things as “ first mover disadvantage !” </li></ul>
  20. 20. Questions ?

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