What’s going to happen, what are the implications of oil supply ‘peaking’?
This point will be hard to identify, except in retrospect. So it will be a rear view mirror event. Also because of the chaotic nature of markets, and supply and demand, a top will appear, the price of oil will go up, demand will be ‘destroyed’, and the price will go down, and then the cycle will repeat with permutations. What are the likely hood of other energy supplies making up the shortfall? In the short term, very little. In the long term better but still not good. There will be a period of adjustment. But the long term outlook is downwards, we will have less energy and increasingly so. This will have big implications.
Published in 1956. Shell oil his employers begged him to not publish his research, but he did to universal disbelief. Predicted US lower 48 would peak in 1970. And it did.
Some examples US lower 48.
Discovery peaked in the 1970s as the giant North Sea fields came in. That delivered a corresponding peak in production in 1999. It is now declining at about 6% a year. The brief fall in production in the 1990s was due mainly to the Piper accident which closed several platforms for maintenance and improved safety. The country becomes a net importer next year on a steeply rising trend. It is a nice example of a country that failed to grasp the irony of depleting a finite resource : the better you do the job, the sooner it ends . Mrs Thatcher created an open market environment bringing in all the famous attributes of competition, initiative, imagination which at first seemed a great success, lowering the price to the consumer, but as a result the country consumed its inheritance in a few years of profligacy.
This shows the world situation. It is the most important slide I can show you. ExxonMobil deserves huge credit for publishing it with good data and revisions properly backdated to discovery. World discovery has been falling relentlessly for 40 years. There is no good reason to expect the trend to change direction. Consumption, shown in black, exceeded discovery in 1981, and the gap is widening. Take a good look : it says it all.
This shows the overwhelming importance of the ME. Can we look to the ME Gulf to make up the decline in other petroleum producing regions?. If when ½ the oil is produced peak occurs, it is clear the main area that we can look to for non peaking production is the ME. Is there enough spare capacity there to offset the depletion in other areas?
Aside from the actual drilling and pumping oil, there are the other sides of what I takes to get the oil from out of the ground to your petrol tank. Looking at those factors, we see the oil industry is not investing in new infrastructure.
This is Chris Skrebowski’s conclusion. Possibly meet demand is also uncertain. There is considerable uncertainty in the 4 th Q of this year for instance. What he is saying demand destruction will be required, ie prices high enough to lower demand to meet supply. We don’t know what this might be. Some analysis have suggested $100- 250 per barrel, in a steadily upward spiral. It is unknown territory.
The formation of Crude Most geologists view crude oil and natural gas as the product of compression and heating of ancient organic materials over geological time. Planktons High temperature High pressure Flourish during the last Global Warming (Jurassic Age 300 million to 200 million yrs ago). Dead body sank to ocean floor and become thick sediments. Oil
USA claims worlds first oil well Titusville Pennsylvania 1859
Ghawar, Saudi: The world’s largest oil field Ghawar was discovered in 1948 and put on stream in 1951. Estimated to have 71 billion barrels of proven reserves. Ghawar
Peak oil is….. <ul><li>the point at which we can no longer increase the amount of oil we pump. From that moment the entire globe will have an ever decreasing supply of oil. </li></ul>
Why is oil supply peaking, how do we know? <ul><li>M King Hubbert </li></ul><ul><li>- 2 discoveries </li></ul><ul><li>Fields peak when ½ the oil has been extracted. </li></ul><ul><li>There is a time lag between discovery of an oil field and that field’s peak production of about 25-40 years. </li></ul>
2004 was a key year for depletion <ul><li>All spare capacity used. OPEC has recently suspended their quota system. </li></ul><ul><li>But also in 2004: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Refinery spare capacity nearly disappeared </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sulphur removal capacity did disappear </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tankers were costly and in short supply </li></ul></ul>
‘ Peak Oil’ in 2007/08? <ul><li>Whatever approach we use the answer seems to be ‘Peak’ in 2007/2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Before that, if all goes to plan, the world can, possibly, meet likely demand </li></ul><ul><li>After that it is hard to see how demand can be met without demand destruction </li></ul><ul><li>But, there are no guarantees </li></ul>
Various Predictions of World Oil Production Peaking <ul><li>Simmons: 2007-2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Goodstein: 2007-2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Skrebowski: After 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Bakhtiari: Before 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Laherrere: 2010-2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Douglas - Westwood: As early as 2016 </li></ul><ul><li>EIA (Nominal case): 2016 </li></ul><ul><li>Shell: After 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Campbell: Around 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>USGS 95% probability 2032 </li></ul><ul><li>USGS 5% probability 2012 </li></ul>
WORLD OIL DEMAND <ul><li>We currently require 84 mbd of oil, and that will rise by around 2-3 mbd by the end of the year. Demand is growing ~2 % per year. </li></ul>