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Convergence - a 2001 perspective

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Presentation on Convergence Conference 2001

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Convergence - a 2001 perspective

  1. 1. CONVERGENCE: WHAT, WHY, & HOW Xiaolin Lu Vice President Strategic Engineering & IP Networks BroadbandXL 4/21/01
  2. 2. CONVERGENCE  WHAT’S CONVERGENCE ?  WHY CONVERGE ?  WHAT TO CONVERGE ?  HOW TO CONVERGE ?XL 4/21/01
  3. 3. BY ALL MEANS … VOICE VIDEO Services &  Communication  Entertainment  One-to-one  Broadcast Perceptions  “On-Demand”  Always there Billing  Usage-based  Flat rate Operation  Circuit/Connection  Push content Network  Point-to-point  Point-to-multipoint  Narrowband/  RF Broadband basebandXL 4/21/01
  4. 4. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW SS7 Telco Class 5 Class 4 Switch Switch  Circuit, connection orientated  Centrally managed  Selling connection Cable FN FN Headend FN FN  Broadcast, push-and-pick push-and-  Centrally managed  Selling contentXL 4/21/01
  5. 5. VISIOIN AT THAT TIME …. FTTC FTTH SONET Switch SONET Switch ATM ATM  Circuit integration  Centrally managed  “Privately Owned”  Tons of bandwidth, but for what?XL 4/21/01
  6. 6. INTERNET PHENOMENA Apps Apps Apps Apps OPEN INTERFACE No-Purpose, “Free” Networks  Separation of networks and servicesXL 4/21/01
  7. 7. CHANGING PERSPECTIVES Bell- Bell-Centric Mosaic Network  RF Modem  Standard based  “Proprietary”  DSP Performance  Capacity  Fiber Optics  Service enabler  Circuit Applications  Bandwidth  Internet  Broadband  Feature- Feature-rich  Multimedia  Service Package Voice Router performance   Network enabled or  Connection  LAN extension independent Business  Telecom Reform  Market maturity &  Competition  Monopoly growthXL 4/21/01
  8. 8. MOORE’S LAW IA-64 10M (est) 1000 Pentium # Transistors per chip (log) Performance in MIPS (log) II Pentium Pro Pentium 1M 100 80486 100K 80386 10 80286 8086/ 8088 10K 1 8085 8080 Legend 8008 Chip density 1K 4004 MIPS .1 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000XL 4/21/01 Year
  9. 9. PHOTONIC MOORE’S LAW 10K TDM Commercial WDM Commercial 1K TDM Research Capacity (Gb/s) WDM Research 100 10 1 0.1 1985 1990 1995 2000 YearXL 4/21/01
  10. 10. Expected Innovation Rates of Optics, Storage, and Electronics Time to Double 9 Months Optical 100X the impact of silicon in 10 yrs! Performance/Price 12 Months Storage 18 Months Silicon (Moore’s Law) Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Vinod KhoslaXL 4/21/01 Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers
  11. 11. THE FOOD CHAIN Applications  Bandwidth Needs  New Opportunities  New Competitions Networks  Software on DSP & ASIC  Architectural Solutions Equipments Components  High power DSP, ASIC, and optical componentsXL 4/21/01
  12. 12. CONVERGENCE WHAT WHY  Services  Enabling vs. Delivery  1+1 > 2  Cost reduction  Presentations  Open for evolution  Network and Platform: and innovation  Adaptable and evolvable, NOT integration  Many choices  Configurable Not Customization  Provision & Operation  Platform transparentXL 4/21/01
  13. 13. CURRENT SITUATION CONTENT VOICE DATA VIDEO CONTENT T-SLOT IP MPEG PACKAGE System & Platform PROPRIETARY PROPRIETARY PROPRIETARY NETWORK TDM IP ATM TRANSPORT SONET FR ATM PROPRIETARY PHYSICAL TRANSPORT PROPRIETARY: Topology, mediaXL 4/21/01
  14. 14. CONVERGENCE CONTENT APPLICATIONS: Presentation CONTENT Application Dependent ?? PACKAGE System & Common & “Transparent” Platform NETWORK Adaptive NOT Integration: TRANSPORT optimized for service delivery PHYSICAL TRANSPORT EvolvableXL 4/21/01
  15. 15.  Convergence = Integration ?  Broadband = Bandwidth ?  Capacity potential  Use of bandwidth  Supporting infrastructures  Pipe and everything else  Technology X > Technology Y  Adaptable  Evolvable  Deliver ~ Enable  Demising separation of customers & service providersXL 4/21/01
  16. 16. EXAMPLE 1: ACCESS NETWORKXL 4/21/01
  17. 17. IN THE PAST ... Voice = Communication Video = Entertainment LEC Cable  Twist Pair Star  Coax Tree-and-Branch  Feature rich POTS  Broadcast video  $84B “toll collection”  $24B “$1 buffet”  Monopoly  Voice-oriented  DLC, ISDN  FTTHXL 4/21/01
  18. 18. PERSPECTIVES Network  Connectivity Service  Communication  Resource Sharing  Entertainment  Convergence Media Topology Control  Copper  Star  Central Mind-Set  Coax  Bus  Distributed  Bell-Head  Fiber  Ring  Self  Net-Head  Radio  “Cable Guy”XL 4/21/01
  19. 19. CHANGING PERSPECTIVES Bell- Bell-Centric Mosaic Network  RF Modem  Standard based  “Proprietary”  DSP Performance  Capacity  Fiber Optics  Service enabler  Circuit Applications  Bandwidth  Internet  Broadband  Feature- Feature-rich  Multimedia  Service Package Voice Router performance   Network enabled or  Connection  LAN extension independent Business  Telecom Reform  Market maturity &  Competition  Monopoly growthXL 4/21/01
  20. 20. OPTIONS LEC  Narrowband  Switched  DLC  Rebuild Wireless  Mobility FTTH  Broadband Cable  Network Upgrade Deep Fiber  Broadband  Broadcast  Cable modem PenetrationXL 4/21/01
  21. 21. ARCHITECTURES Tree-and-Branch  Broadcast FN  Cascaded ??? Cell-Based  Narrowcast RN  ClusteredXL 4/21/01
  22. 22. FIBER OPTICS ? Node 2,000+HP 1,200HP 600HP 200HP 100HP Size HOW Deep ? HOW To ?XL 4/21/01
  23. 23. HFC IN THE MAKING HE FN Primary Primary Hub HE Ring HE FN Broadcast  Multi-ServiceXL 4/21/01
  24. 24. HFC IN THE MAKING SH FN Primary Primary Hub SH Ring SH FN DWDM Transport Segmentation End-to-end Transparency 4X capacityXL 4/21/01
  25. 25. OXiom TM SH mFN mFN PH CMTS SH S mFN mFN SH  mFNs replace all coax amplifiers XTR XTR XTR  Less active components  More bandwidth and flexibility WDM PON  Deep fiber penetration with cell structure  Optical add/drop to daisy chain mFNs  Reduced fiber management & labor  Provisioning for growth  Distributed processing at mFNXL 4/21/01
  26. 26.  Adaptable  Evolvable  Balance  Forward and backward  Front-end cost & lifetime savingXL 4/21/01
  27. 27. EXAMPLE 2: REGINAL NETWORKXL 4/21/01
  28. 28. A TRANSPORT LAYER MODEL IP 1/0 DCS 4E 4E IP 1/0 DCS Service IP IP 1/0 DCS 1/0 DCS 4E 4E Layers DS1 (1.5 Mb/s) ATM ATM DS3/OC3 3/1 DCS 3/1 DCS 3/1 DCS ATM ATM 3/1 DCS 3/1 DCS Layer ATM DCS DCS Layer DCS DCS Layer DCS DS3/OC3/OC12 SONET Layer ADM ADM ADM ADM ADM ADM ADM OC48 (2.5 Gb/s) WDM WDM WDM WDM WDM WDM Optical Layer Fiber Conduit/ Media Sheath LayerXL 4/21/01
  29. 29. A SIMPLIFIED MODEL Legacy Intelligent Edge IP & Legacy  Classification  Policing  Switching Aggregator  Mapping  Accommodate legacy The Pipe  DWDM Switching  Auto Topology ManagementXL 4/21/01
  30. 30. CONVERGENCE: Simplification and Evolving Access Intelligent Edge  Classification Access  Policing  Switching  Aggregation Transparent DWDM Core  Smart DWDM for Access transport and topology Access  Accommodate legacy Access Access Coherent Provisioning and ManagementXL 4/21/01
  31. 31. EXAMPLE 3: CHOICESXL 4/21/01
  32. 32. CHOICE ? Customer Local Class Switch Bell Spint MCI Price Customer Local Class Switch War AT&TXL 4/21/01
  33. 33. Yes, CHOICE ! Value Service Value Presentation Network PoC Service Value To Customers Services Service Value ServiceXL 4/21/01
  34. 34. BROADBAND CHOICE TM INTERNET Regional ISP 3 Access Network ISP 2 Regional Access Network ISP 1 Backbone Regional Access Network Regional Access Network Regional Access NetworkXL 4/21/01
  35. 35. SOLUTIONS ISP 1 Home Access HE Regional PoC ISP 1  Policy-based routing  Source-based  MPLS  Network service  Provisioning  Choice managementXL 4/21/01
  36. 36. EXAMPLE 4: VOIPXL 4/21/01
  37. 37. SOME THOUGHTS …. Attributes Implications Benefits  Open standards  More suppliers  Lower prices  Call agent  Third party  Incremental platform applications revenue  Common IP  Shared equipment &  Economies of network labor scope  IP Transport  Interconnect cost  Higher margins reductionXL 4/21/01
  38. 38. Today’s Architecture PSTN 5ESS SONET PH HDT DWDM Networking SH HFC mFN CMTS Local IP Network Internet NIU CM  Separate voice and data platforms sharing the same HFC networkXL 4/21/01
  39. 39. Transition: IP Digital Terminal PSTN 5ESS SONET PH IPDT DWDM HFC Router CMTS Networking SH mFN Local IP Network Internet BTI  Integrated voice and data over HFC network  Utilize 5ESS platform for voice interconnect & featuresXL 4/21/01
  40. 40. End-to- End-to-End IP Platform PSTN PH PSTN IP DWDM Gateway HFC Router CMTS Networking SH Backbone mFN Local IP Network Internet BTI HPNA  Cost reduction through common IP infrastructure  New revenue with emerging IP-based services  Flexible user interfaces stimulate more creativitiesXL 4/21/01
  41. 41. OPTIONS Switching Technology Switch Call Agent HDT Reverse gateway Access Technology NIU/HDT + Current, proven technology + Uses call agent - Proprietary interfaces + Moves traffic off circuit switches - Uses circuit switches - Limited support for new IP services IPDT End-to-end BTI/CMTS + Standard-based + Standard-based + Support voice and data + Support voice, data, & new IP - Uses circuit switches + Uses call agent - Interim solution - Time to marketXL 4/21/01
  42. 42. IT’S ALL ABOUT THOSE DEMARCATION POINTS …. RDC Backbone Home HG Access HE-D Regional POP Commodities Value Creation  End-to-end consistency  Provisioning and management  PresentationXL 4/21/01
  43. 43. IT NEVER ENDS … Service Growth Time Network Platform Time Has Been Moving to Service Delivery Enabling Platform Service specific Open Interface Network One-dimension pipe Multi-dimension infrastructureXL 4/21/01
  44. 44. … The wonderful thing about Moore’s Law is that it is not a static law; it forces everyone to live in a dynamic, evolving world. -- Carver MeadXL 4/21/01
  45. 45. We’ll seeXL 4/21/01

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