Simplifying Complexity: How the Four-Field Matrix Reshapes Thinking
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2021 Executive Class - Paris 8th September 2021
1. Founding partners
Energy Architecture & UN Sustainable Development, Covid-19
Recoveries
- and our Responsible Leadership -
- Paris 8th September 2021- (draft version)
Adriaan Kamp
Energy For One World
Executive Programme New Energy
Realities- 2021
2. Adriaan Kamp
Energy For One World (2012- Present)
A consulting practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture,
UN SDGâs and Leadership.
Program Director Executive Energy (transition) & Leadership
Education
20 years Industry and Shell International Upstream ( 5
Countries and EPHQ).
3. Contents of Session
1. Years 2015-2021: Global Change, Energy Transition, Climate
Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030 &
Covid-19!
2. Organising ourselves for Success: âA Decade of Actionâ
âEnergy Free Of Concerns & Societies Free of Concernsâ
3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Responsible Leadership
4. Global Context Period 2015-Now
1. Global Change, Covid-19 and Geo-Politics of Emotions
2. New Energy Realities
- Strategic Outlook on Energy (Davos WEF 2019)/ IEA World Energy Outlook 2020
- IEA Clean Energy Summit: Towards a Sustainable Recovery/ OpecPlus Meetings
- Net Zero in 2050: A roadmap for the global energy system
- World Energy Council/ G20- Russian Energy Minister Novak
- New Technologies, Architectures and Market Models
- Energy available, affordable and sustainable: âFree of Concernsâ
- www.energyandstuff.org / Fossil Fuel non-proliferation treaty
3. Paris Climate Change Agreement, COP24 Katowice- IPCC vs 6 and COP26
4. UN Sustainable Development 2030 Âś
5. Our Collective Leadership
19. Club Of Rome- 50 years: Book Launch:
Come on! Short-termism, Population
and the Destruction of the Planet
Ernst von Weizsacker/ Anders Wijkman
Age of Discovery- Navigating the
Risk and Rewards of our New Age
Renaissance.
Ian Goldin- Oxford Martin School
19
22. 4 Crisis+ 2: 1. Corona, 2. Economy/Jobs, 3. Racial
Inequalities 4. Climate: âLight over Darkâ 5.+ 6.
Afghanistan/ Trust in USA Political System
22
28. UNEP Emission Gap Report 2018
This yearâs report showsâamong other ďŹndingsâthat there is a
need for three to ďŹve times higher reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions than the goals agreed by the worldâs countries in the
Paris Agreement.
The distance has increased between climate commitments and
the reduction of greenhouse gases needed if we are to meet the
goals in the Paris Agreement.
âThereâs thus both a large gap between what the worldâs
countries have promised to do and what is needed, and another
gap between the commitments made and whatâs actually being
done.â
â The IEA reports that fossil fuel production and consumption,
and thus also carbon emissions, are on the rise, our carbon
budget for a 1.5-2 Degrees Celsius scenario already consumed.
28
29. John Kerry Race to Net Zero
- and Call for Action (Kew Garden)
29
70. Davos 2018- âCreating a Shared Future in a Fractured Worldâ
â˘The global context today has changed dramatically: geostrategic
fractures have re-emerged on multiple fronts with wide-ranging
political, economic and social consequences.
â˘âOur collective inability to secure inclusive growth and preserve our
scarce resources puts multiple global systems at risk simultaneously.
Our first response must be to develop new models for cooperation
that are not based on narrow interests but on the destiny of humanity
as a whole," said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman,
World Economic Forum.
70
71. SG Guterres -
71
Guterres: The worldâs problems are
âmore and more integratedâ but the
response to them is increasingly
âfragmentedâ and âdysfunctionalâ,
at WEF Davos : âin one sentenceâ
A new social contract for a new era:
: Tackling the Inequality Pandemic
72. Founding partners
25.05.2018
Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments
⢠Economic and finance system change and fundamentals
⢠A new technological era: 4th
Industrial Revolution.
⢠Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational)
corporations
⢠Social Changes (networked economies), and the quest for social
wealth & justice
⢠Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities/ Loss of Biodiversity
and Nature
⢠Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets
Global Change
73. 73
2020
2030-2050
7.9 Billion
People
10 Billion
People
100 trillion
USD
economy
180-210
trillion USD
225 million
oil eq/day
(15 TW)
500- 750 million
oil eq/day
(55 TW)
412 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget
consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st
century
??? ppm CO2 and
Climate Change Effects
74. BRIC:
Itâs our time. Let us grow our
Economies and take care of
our people
Youâll fix whatever you want to
fix!
The West:
âIf you do as I have done
it will be
a mess.â
Let us all change- rapidly
Letâs secure our nation,
people and planet
Emerging:
Will there be enough for
us?
Can i afford it?
Who will deliver it to me?
The poor:
When will we see
electricity and get
mobility?
Opec and GasPec:
You need us!
We can deliver your needs!
What is all that fuzz about
Availability and climate change?
85. Between Oceans and Mountains: There is a Sky!
⢠The Sky Scenario illustrates a technically possible, but
challenging pathway for society to achieve the goals of the
Paris Agreement. Sky builds on previous Shell scenarios
publications and is our most optimistic scenario in terms of
climate outcomes.
⢠A new energy system is emerging. The Paris Agreement has
sent a signal around the world: climate change is a serious
issue that governments are determined to address. By 2070
there is the potential for a very different energy system to
emerge.
⢠The Sky Scenario outlines what we believe to be a
technologically, industrially, and economically possible route
forward, consistent with limiting the global average
temperature rise to well below 2°C from pre-industrial levels.
It reveals the potential for an energy system to emerge that
brings modern energy to all in the world, without delivering a
climate legacy that society cannot readily adapt to.
85
90. Contents of Session
1. Years 2015-2018: Global Change, Energies Transition,
Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030
2. Organising ourselves for Success: âEnergy Free of Concernsâ
3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Responsible
Leadership
93. Our world is under construction:
The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) â in MegaCities
and more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada
The top 10 cities by population:
1. Tokyo, (34 million)
2. Seoul (24.4 million)
3. Guangzhou (24.2 million)
4. Mexico City (23.4 million)
5. Delhi (23.2 million)
6. Mumbai (22.8 million)
7. New York (22.2 million)
8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million)
9. Manila (19.6 million)
10. Shanghai (19.4 million)
All above fit comfortably into the list
Of Top-50 nations by population
94.
95. Organizing ourselves: âzipperedâ- in dimensions
Mainstream
⢠UN Re-organisation (0)
⢠Governments (1)
⢠Corporates and Global Compact (2a)
⢠Government- Business- Science Community (UN SDSN) (2b)
⢠New Entrants/ Innovators/ Game-changers (3)
⢠Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system
Bottoms-up
⢠Community, Start-up Community (5)
106. 106
Russia Priority National Projects -
The Yuzhny Satellite Town is one of the most
ambitious multi-functional development projects in
Russia.
Source: START Development
111. Siemens
Dismantling an Icon
Since Kaeser took charge in 2013, there has been a flurry
of spinoffs, carveouts and joint ventures at the German
giant
â May 2014: Siemens slims its divisions to nine from
16; carves out health care and announces listing of
hearing aid business
â September 2014: Siemens sells stake in kitchen and
washing machine business to Bosch
â November 2014: Sells hearing-aid unit to EQT for
2.14 billion euros ($2.4 billion)
â June 2016: Announces merger of wind power
division to form Siemens Gamesa
â November 2016: Announces Siemens Healthineers
will be brought to market
â February 2019: Plan to form rail joint venture with
Franceâs Alstom is blocked by European authorities
â May 2019: Siemens announces plan to carve out
power and gas businesses
112. Germany Coal Commission: Phase-Out 2038
112
BERLIN (Reuters) - 26.1.2019: Germany should shut down all of its coal-fired power plants by 2038 at the latest, a
government-appointed commission said on Saturday, proposing at least 40 billion euros ($45.7 billion) in aid to regions affected by the
phase-out.
113. Energy in the Netherlands (1)
⢠Rutte IV?
⢠What to do after âGroningen Gas
(21/12 Bcm) & New Energy
Transition (Climate) Accord- II ?
⢠What to do with/after Pernis?
⢠Electrification of Homes, Cars,
Transport and Cities
⢠Greening of intensive energy
Industries-, Agri-, Petro-;
⢠Regional Energy Markets
⢠What new export markets are there
to create?
116. Energy in the Netherlands (2)
The challenge the Dutch are facing is a triple national budget and investment
challenge:
⢠1. The decrease in (state) income due to the earlier closure of Groningen
Gas. The estimated economic value of the lost gas is between 50-125 Billion
Euro.
⢠2. Additional expenses to be able to import Gas (temporarily) and as
"bridging fuel" - in the transition and accelerated investments in (eg) Wind
Offshore, as an alternative to the loss of Groningen Gas.
⢠3. Renovation of Dutch energy architecture: Investments in electrification,
the built environment and agri-, industry- to "get off gas / gasless" and to
meet Paris [1]
116
127. Red-Lines, GreenWish, GreenWash and the Real Deal
127
Greenwashing Top 15 (it was tough cutting the list from 100+) by Assaad Razouk (energy specialist)
1 Big Oil rebranding methane gas decades ago as ânaturalâ
2 Big Oil inventing carbon footprint calculators
3 Any corporate plastic ârecyclingâ pledge: Of all the plastic ever created, only 9% has been recycled
4 Carbon capture projects
5 The green bond market: All bonds should be green
6 Any polluting company making noises about âplanting trees.
7 Voluntary carbon markets (their time is long gone)
8 Corporate "net zero" pledges with no plans to cut emissions to zero
9 Oil companies trumpeting renewables while planning to maintain or increase oil & gas production
10 The IEA's '7 Key Principles for Implementing Net Zero' document omitting any mention of the words "oil", "gas", "coal" or "fossil fuels"
11 Anything insurance companies say about net zero or cutting fossil fuel exposure
12 Law ďŹrms
13 Almost all of the ESG ďŹnancial industry
14 Saudi Arabia wanting to plant 10 billion trees even though it doesn't have a single river
15 Carbon neutral LNG cargos
129. Focus Areas (Energy Sector)
(Year 2019 and beyond- example only)
Oil& Petrochemicals â Plastics in the
Oceans, Fumes in the Air, and Carbon
in the Atmosphere
Gas, Emissions vs New Power- and
Mobility- Energy Architectures
Energy Architecture Developments,
Economies and UN SDGs
GeoPolitics, Free trade and âEnergy to
Allâ or
âEnergy-Economies Free of Concernsâ
Change &
Transformation
130. Old and New Clickable Presentations
Vs 350 Bn USD investment
133. Example Shell (2):
âA decisive step to a cleaner energy futureâ
Royal Dutch Shell pledged to double its investment in
renewable fuels and to cut its carbon emissions in half by
2050.
⢠In comments to investors, Ben van Beurden, Shellâs chief
executive, said that from 2018 to 2020, the companyâs
new-energies division would spend up to $2 billion a
year on renewable energy sources like wind, solar and
hydrogen power and on electric-car charging stations.
⢠Mr. van Beurden stressed that the pledge was just a start
and that the company supported the goal of the Paris
accord, which is to keep global temperatures
133
Itâs time for Shell to accelerate its efforts in
the transition to a lower-carbon world. This
is how I plan to drive change through the
company.- 8 December 2017
134. Example Shell (3):
âA decisive step to a cleaner energy futureâ
Into the 2020s, however, we plan a greater focus on
revenue streams that will be less constrained by policies
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including
petrochemicals and electricity. Shell has made a series of
moves in recent months to strengthen its position in the
power industry, with deals to buy Texas electricity group
MP2, electric vehicle charging company NewMotion, and
UK energy retailer First Utility.
âIf you fast forward with another twenty, thirty, forty, fifty
years, the power segment is going to be a very dominant
part of the total energy system,â Mr van Beurden said. âAt
the moment itâs only 18 per cent but it will be more than
50 by the time this century is over. So we cannot pass up
on that opportunity.â
134
Itâs time for Shell to accelerate its efforts in
the transition to a lower-carbon world. This
is how I plan to drive change through the
company.- 8 December 2017
135. Example Shell (4):
2018 European Cleantech Corporation of the Year.
⢠The European Cleantech Corporation of the Year award exists to recognize âa
major European enterprise whose activities, actions and consistent support over
multiple years have significantly contributed to the growth of cleantech innovation,
and/or demand for cleaner products and services, and who has made some
particularly noteworthy actions over the last 12 months.â
⢠The 2018 European Cleantech Corporation of the Year was awarded to Shell. The
following three reasons are why Shell stood out for this award:
⢠1. The sense of a new level of commitment and action, with which Shell is
gripping the challenges of the huge and disruptive transitions ongoing in the world
of energy and transportation, and the urgency with which it has been making
strategic moves.
⢠2. The range of actions it has been taking. A few examples to illustrate include:
⢠a. New Energy Solutions. Capital commitments of on average $1-2bn per annum
behind this relatively new initiative (launched in May 2016) represents a significant
commitment by Shell to transforming its own business model.
⢠b. Commitments to lower carbon. Shell announced plans in Nov 2017 to cut the
net carbon footprint of its energy products by around half by 2050, with an interim
step of 20% by 2035 in line with society.
⢠c. Acquisitions. There have been a number, but most striking are MP2 Energy and
First Utility, for example, that set out Shellâs clear strategic intent to become a
player in the electricity markets of the future.
⢠d. Shell Ventures, Springboard and other initiatives and their work with the global
innovation ecosystem and entrepreneurs, shaping the future industrial world.
⢠e. A global player. We have seen deals across the map,
geographically and in terms of the different dynamics on energyâs
future â from renewables to EV charging, from mobility services to
energy access.
⢠f. Working in partnership with peers. Shell is one of the founding
members of OGCI (Oil & Gas Climate Initiative), the cross-industry
effort to de-carbonise the oil & gas industry.
⢠3. The actions and transactions levels have noticeably increased
over the last 12 months.
⢠a. Shell has been the most active European-based CVC across the
energy and industrial innovation themes we cover. Deals have
included Axiom Energy, Husk Power, HyET, Innowatts, Steamaco, and
Sunseap.
⢠b. Shell has been an active acquirer. Examples over the period
include:
⢠i. The significant stake acquired in the US solar developer, Silicon
Ranch Corporation (Jan 2018)
ii. The entry into the UK retail market via the acquisition of First
Utility (Dec 2017)
iii. The acquisition of the Dutch venture-backed
company, NewMotion, the pan-European network of electric vehicle
charging stations (Oct 2017)
iv. The acquisition of Texas-based MP2 Energy, a leader in Demand
Response Solutions (formally closed in September 2017)
135
136. On the Power (electricity) system and market
136
139. Another Tone of Voice on Shell or Big Oils present bet:
Our present working approach will not do, and I do not know the answers to all of this- but I am open
to true transformation- and to work more open and holistic. I am open for new learning.
I do know that I have urgently to re-organize the purpose, meaning, working and decision making
(over change, energy transition) in and of my Oil and Gas, Energy Company, the sector and within our
trade and nations
I am open to review and bring to live new (public-private) organisation forms and functions- that can
help cross the divides, heal the wounds in and over the Sector, and truly build the bridges of Peace,
Hope and UNSDGs- to all.
I will change my tone of voice, and I will open-up and allow our organisation for a new culture and
learning: on Deep Humanity. Deep Ecology and Deep Peace.
I understand that the old business model and present neo-liberal market model and system has been
stretched beyond repair, got to change, if we are to succeed and secure our childrens future.
139
140. BP Looney New Strategy: âIntegrated Energyâ
140
152. New (institutionalised) possibilities thinking pre-Covid-19:
How do we look at these earlier options, now?
What is going well? What is âunder pressure or just an illusionâ?
What needs urgently to change- in our approach and tone of voice?
What key (sector, market, strategic possibilities) options, choices and
(integrated) decisions can we better make, post-Covid-19?
What is (urgently) needed in order to succeed in what we are
planning and aiming to deliver- in change? What are we planning for
to deliver now and in 2030?
152
155. From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy
sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by government, industry and civil society.
The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio-political,
economic, ecological and business philosophies, leadership and interests
exercised on location.
The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of,
establishment of) thriving sustainable societies- making energy available, affordable and
sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there.
Now and in the future.
155
Energy Architecture
158. Princeton Wedges
Grow and Safe Energy
Change Energy Supply Source
Change Energy Architecture
Change Products (Cars, Homes) &
Industry Designs
Change Energy- Economy and
Direction of Lifestyles
Change Leadership Paradigm
158
160. Levels of Change
â˘Level 1
â˘Level 2
â˘Level 3
â˘Level 4
⢠Change and No Change. Resistance to Change. Policy, Administrative and Derivative Change (CO2
tax, ETS, Accounting). Coal vs. Gas. Continued backroom lobbying
⢠Full Integration of Renewables (clean-tech, energy conservations, smartness, etc.) in the Energy
Architecture - but not with a system change. Retained regulations, ownership , revenue, tax and
capital control structures
⢠Transition to a New Energy Architecture and Newly shared socio-economic and corporate
business models- also in international trade
⢠Transformation of Economies and Societies. Eco-modernity and New human consciousness
161. The way it works: Country Categories and Markets (1)
â˘OECD- USA, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia
â˘(Richer, Resource based) OPEC/ GasPec
â˘China Inc., India Inc.
â˘Developing (without Resources)
â˘Developing (with Resources)
â˘Least developed. Poor.
162. The way it works (2) : A New Formula in Business and Trade
163. Mainstream
â˘Governments (1)
â˘Energy Corporates and Incumbents (2)
â˘New Entrants/ Innovators/ Change-makers (3)
â˘Non-Energy Sectors/ Green Growth/ UN SDGs (4)
1+2+3+4 +5= Hybrid Eco-system
Bottoms-up
â˘Community, Start-up Community (5)
The way it works (3): New Forms of Collaborations
164. The way it may work (4): Finding the Rubik-Cube Combination
âOrganizational Forms and Formatsâ - that works
âHorizontal and Vertical Integrationâ
164
e.g.
Country Categories,
Geographies &
Markets
Business Formula-
and
Cross-Sectors
Forms of
Collaboration
â Strengthening human well-being
and capabilities;
â Shifting towards sustainable and
just economies;
â Building sustainable food
systems and healthy nutrition
patterns;
â Achieving energy
decarbonization and universal
access to energy;
â Promoting sustainable urban and
peri-urban development; and
â Securing the global
environmental commons.
178. âEvery Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this
world can be improved upon in order to raise the availability,
affordability and sustainability of energy to allâ.- Adriaan
Kamp, -2015
Every Country and Every Organization in this World can be
improved upon in order to raise the human, social, economic
and sustainable development to all- Adriaan Kamp- 2015
178
179. "The invitation we have today is to see and to blend our deep
consciousness and care for Humanity and Ecology with our more
mainstream energy economics and politics- at play"
Let us direct our work and collective efforts towards attaining
âEnergy Free of Concerns & Societies Free of Concernsâ
Here and There. Now and Tomorrow
Adriaan Kamp
179
181. Contents of Session
1. Year 2015-2018: Global Change, Energies Transition,
Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030
2. Organising ourselves for success: Energy Free of Concerns
3. Opportunities, Skills and our (Personal) Responsible
Leadership
197. Napoleonâs Six Winning Principles, and Leading in the Front
⢠EXACTITUDE
awareness, research and continuous planning
⢠SPEED
reducing resistance, increasing urgency, and providing
focus
⢠FLEXIBILITY
building teams that are adaptable, empowered and
unified
⢠SIMPLICITY
clear, simple objectives, messages, and processes
⢠CHARACTER
integrity, calmness, and responsibility
⢠MORAL FORCE
providing order, purpose, recognition and rewards
Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
201. UPSTREAM
OFFSHORE
PLATFORM
OIL
SANDS
Bitumen
DOWNSTREAM
Feedstock
Synthetic
crude oil
Fuels, lubricants and speciality products including
Bitumen and liquefied petroleum gas
UPGRADER
PLANT
Oil
REFINERY
Gas
LNG
LIQUEFICATION
PLANT
GAS TO
LIQUIDS
PLANT
BIOFUELS
PLANT
BIOFUELS
PLANT
WIND
TURBINES
Energy for industrial
and domestic use
LNG
REGASIFICATION
TERMINAL
POWER
STATION
ONSHORE
PRODUCTION FACILITY
Gas
Oil
CHEMICAL
PLANT
Petrochemicals used for plastics,
Coatings and detergents
Global Oil & Gas businesses
203. On the Power (electricity) system and market
203
204. 204
We cannot save the Planet (Climate, Nature), if we cannot save
the People (Economy, Social Justice).
The People cannot be saved, if the Planet (Nature) is broken, at
risk or fails (e.g. pollution, resource scarcities, climate risks).
We better first solve (our problems, our pains), before we can
make true progress and changeâ
205. Energy For One World- 2012, All Rights Reserved
ââResistance to change falls when the benefits are
made clear
Resistance to change falls when the Story feels Right
(âThe Starâ is Chosen âRightâ)
We cannot ârunâ ourselves into Sustainability. Slow
down and walk in more beauty.
210. Servant Leadership
â˘Compassionate love
â˘Authenticity
â˘Humbleness
â˘Empowerment
â˘Provide direction
â˘Stewardship
Hereâs the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and
foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they
lead. They do this by supporting them rather than dictating to
them, and by assigning top priority to employee well-being.
Deceptively simple and deeply profound
212. Hofstede: Cultures and Organizations. The
way it works
212
The Way it Works for a System Rethink
World View
Cultures
Institutions
Our Leadership Ways
214. 214
1. Sustainable Development- a new kind of
Globalization (2016)
2. Sustainable Humanity (2012)
3. We can no longer manage decency (2018)
4. Aga Khan University Special Lecture Series:
Can we find a shared global ethics for the 21st
century? (2020)
âLeading Global Decencyâ
218. A practice on Global Change, Energy Architecture, UN SDGâs and Our Leadership.
Energy For One World
Adriaan Kamp (Founder)
Skype: Adriaan.Kamp
TelCall Direct line (Netherlands):
0031-614939194
E-Mail:
adriaankamp@energyforoneworld.com
www.EnergyForOneWorld.com