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"Modell Deutschland" - Präsentation Öko-Institut zur WWF-Studie

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Materialien zur WWF-Pressekonferenz "Modell Deutschland - Klimaschutz bis 2050" (165.10.2009, Berlin): Ergebnis-Präsentation des Öko-Instituts. In der Studie zeigt der WWF technisch mögliche und wirtschaftlich bezahlbare Wege in eine CO2-arme Zukunft. Weitere Informationen auf www.wwf.de/klima2050

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"Modell Deutschland" - Präsentation Öko-Institut zur WWF-Studie

  1. 1. Modell Deutschland. Klimaschutz bis 2050. Zentrale Ergebnisse zur Umsetzung Präsentation der Studie „Modell Deutschland – Klimaschutz bis 2050. Vom Ziel her denken“ im Auftrag des WWF Dr. Felix Chr. Matthes … für das BearbeiterInnen-Team des Öko-Instituts (Julia Busche, Verena Graichen, Dr. Wiebke Zimmer, Hauke Hermann, Gerhard Penninger und Lennart Mohr) Berlin, 29. September 2009
  2. 2. Ergebnis Detailanalyse (alle Sektoren) 95%-Minderung sind machbar … ... und wirtschaftlich verkraftbar. Aber in allen (!) Sektoren muss ein deutliches Umsteuern erfolgen. Neue Ansätze sind notwendig. 18 45 Andere THG - Pro-Kopf-Emission CO2 - Pro-Kopf-Emission 16 40 Andere THG - kumulierte Emissionen ab 2005 CO2 - kumulierte Emissionen ab 2005 14 35 Mrd t. CO2-Äqu. ab 2005 12 30 t CO2-Äqu./EW 10 25 8 20 6 15 4 10 2 5 0 0 1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 Ist-Daten Referenzszenario Innovationsszenario Modell Deutschland
  3. 3. Ergebnis Top-down-Analyse (1) Energieeffizenz & erneuerbare Energien … ... sind zentral, aber mit einem Zielbeitrag von 2/3 nicht genug
  4. 4. Ergebnis Top-down-Analyse (2) Ein neuer Blick auf Prioritäten … ... ist notwendig. Das richtige Timing der Maßnahmen ist angesichts des sehr langlebigen Kapitalstocks zentral 0 Referenz-Szenario -100 -200 -300 Modell Deutschland Mio. t CO2-Äqu. ggü. 2005 Innovations-Szenario -400 Weniger langlebiger Kapitalstock Landnutzung und Forsten -500 Landwirtschaft Abfallwirtschaft -600 Industrieprozesse Brennstoffwechsel (fossil) -700 Elektrifizierung Erneuerbare Energien -800 Andere Energieeffizienz Effizienz Gebäude -900 Effizienz Stromanwendung Nachfragen -1.000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
  5. 5. Strategien & Umsetzungspolitik Neue Ansätze sind notwendig (1) Die Perspektive auf 2050 sollte zum Konsistenzcheck für jegliche Energie- und Klimapolitik werden • Rechtzeitige (!) und gezielte Innovation ist unverzichtbar • Infrastrukturen bilden mit ihren langen Vorlaufzeiten eine neue Herausforderung, sie erfordern letztlich ein Bekenntnis zu technologischen Vorentscheidungen • Energiesysteme & Märkte als neuer Interventionsansatz • Falsch verstandene Flexibilitäten (Stichwort „kurzfristige Effizienzgewinne“) sind kontraproduktiv • Lock-in-Effekte können von erheblicher Bedeutung sein, Lock-in kann sich zentral (Kohlekraftwerke) und dezentral (fossile Dezentralisierung ohne Ausstiegsstrategie) vollziehen
  6. 6. Strategien & Umsetzungspolitik Neue Ansätze sind notwendig (2) Die Perspektive auf 2050 sollte zum Konsistenzcheck für jegliche Energie- und Klimapolitik werden (Forts.) • Fragen nach den Alternativen im Kontext eines 95%- Minderungsziels sowie der „Windows of Opportunity“ rangieren noch vor der Effizienzgesichtspunkten • Unbequeme Debatten werden unvermeidlich - Biomasse - CCS (als Option für Industrieprozesse und Biomasse sowie als Fallback-Otion für die Stromerzeugung) - Leitungsgebundene Wärmeversorgung
  7. 7. Strategien & Umsetzungspolitik Das IKEP 2030 als Mittelfristansatz Das „Integrierte Klimaschutz- und Energieprogramm 2030“ als ein Entwurf neuer Klima- und Energiepolitik • Rechtlicher Rahmen für eine langfristige Klimapolitik • Übergreifende Instrumente der Klimapolitik • Übergreifende Instrumente zur Erhöhung der Energieeffizienz • Innovations- und infrastrukturspezifische Maßnahmenpakete • Vielfältige sektorspezifische Maßnahmenpakate … Eckpunkte für über 40 Maßnahmen bzw. Maßnahmenpakete
  8. 8. Strategien & Umsetzungspolitik Leitbild für Klima- und Energiepolitik Die „6i-Strategie“ als Leitbild für ambitionierte Klima- und Energiepolitik • Innovationen in ganzer Breite, • Infrastrukturen der Zukunft, • Industrielle Kreativität, • Integrierte Strategien, • Intelligente Regulierung und • Internationale Zusammenarbeit.
  9. 9. Besten Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit Dr. Felix Chr. Matthes Energy & Climate Division Büro Berlin Novalisstraße 10 D-10115 Berlin f.matthes@oeko.de www.oeko.de

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