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Pr20130404 wh ftf legal workshop amsterdam license proliferation v02

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Presentation on a preliminary empirical study we did on actual open source license proliferation.

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Pr20130404 wh ftf legal workshop amsterdam license proliferation v02

  1. 1. License proliferationAn extremely naive quantitative analysisbased on FLOSSMOLE dataApril 4th, 2013Walter van Holstw.van.holst@mitopics.nlIndependent IT consultancy through its combination of technical, business and legal expertise
  2. 2. Programme Background Methodology Initial results Conclusions/Q+A
  3. 3. License proliferation In 2009 Mitopics sponsored a Master’s thesis onlicense proliferation Qualitative analysis Contradictory results Time for a quantitative follow-up Little data available in 2009
  4. 4. Freecode dataset Published since about 2005 Jump in quality around 2009
  5. 5. License proliferation measurements What is license proliferation? The distribution of licenses across licenses? Or just a compatibility problem? And is one-way compatibility enough?
  6. 6. How do we value compatibility Extremely naively: Treat open source projects as nodes of a network Consider any combination as a desirable one Treat any combination as of equal value asothers Metcalfe’s law: n*(n-1)/2
  7. 7. Programme Background Methodology Initial results Conclusions/Q+A
  8. 8. Methodology FLOSSmole contains a wealth of data However… … quite a lot of pollution So far the Freecode (formerly Freshmeat) codeset is most useful, but only after 2009
  9. 9. 2009GPL72%LGPL8%BSD7%GPL23%GPL32%MIT2%Artistic License2%APL21%OSI Approved1%MPL1% APL1%0% 0%
  10. 10. What are the network valuesGPL 38171 728493535LGPL 7242 26219661BSD+MIT 3651 6663075GPL2 32738 535871953GPL3 32868 540136278Artistic License 4915 12076155APL2 4612 10632966MPL 4878 11895003APL 4252 9037626Total potential 38674 747819801Value loss 19326266
  11. 11. So… … license proliferation was not a massiveproblem in 2009 despite the occurence ofseveral incompatible licenses
  12. 12. GPL63%LGPL9%BSD8%GPL35%GPL25%MIT3%Artistic License2%APL22% Other1%MPL1%APL1% 0% 0%2010Total potential 534595951Value loss 30771055
  13. 13. GPL61%LGPL9%BSD9%GPLv36%GPL25%MIT3%APL22%Artistic License2%Other1%MPL1%APL1%2011Potential value 565908903Value loss 56417822
  14. 14. GPL59%LGPL9%BSD9%GPLv37%GPL25%MIT4%APL22%ArtisticLicense2%Other1%MPL1%APL1%2012Potential value 599601135Value loss 79779489
  15. 15. GPL58%LGPL9%BSD9%GPLv37%GPL25%MIT4%APL23%ArtisticLicense2%Other1%MPL1%APL1%GPL2+0%2013Potential value 621580911Value loss 60372158
  16. 16. Programme Background Methodology Initial results Conclusions/Q+A
  17. 17. Some cautious conclusions Fragmentation was not a big problem to beginwith Grew with the rift within the GPL-communities May be subsiding again, thanks to adoption ofAPL2 and GPL2+

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