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Fisheries and Aquaculture Futures in Africa

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WAS conference, Cape Town
June 28, 2017

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Fisheries and Aquaculture Futures in Africa

  1. 1. Fisheries and Aquaculture Futures in Africa Chin Yee Chan, Nhuong Tran, Timothy B Sulser, Michael J Phillips, Miroslav Batka, Sloans Chimatiro, Malcolm Dickson WAS conference, Cape Town June 28, 2017
  2. 2. Fish foresight modeling: Cross CGIAR research centers and CRPs collaboration
  3. 3. Fish is crucial to any debate and action to reduce poverty and improve food security and nutrition. “ ” HLPE High Level Panel of Experts Why fish?
  4. 4. Why fish is important in Africa? • ~20 % of African are undernourished • Fish, as a source of ‘rich food for poor people’ • Other than protein, the main contribution of fish to food and nutrition security is its lipid, micronutrients and minerals
  5. 5. Global and Africa share of fish production, 1950- 2015 2.3% Africa
  6. 6. Thousand tons Egypt 63% Nigeria 20% Uganda7% Africa aquaculture production by sub-region, 1980- 2015
  7. 7. Comparison of per capita fish consumption in 2015 10 kg Africa Population: 1.1 billion undernourished: 20 % 38 kg Southeast Asia Population: 0.6 billion undernourished: 10 % 20 kg World Population: 7.1 billion undernourished: 11 %
  8. 8. Africa fish utilization and supply, 1961-2013 Population growth rate: 2.6% Fish supply for food growth rate: 2.8% Fish per capita consumption growth rate: 1.4% Population (X100 million) and per capita consumption (kg/person)
  9. 9. Africa net surplus, 1976-2013 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Milliontons 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 BillionUS$ Export Import Tonnage deficit Value surplus Net import Net Export Africa export higher value fish, but import lower value fish
  10. 10. Objectives • Present the business-as-usual projection of future fish production, net trade, and consumption in Africa to 2050 • Assess the alternative scenarios (investment interventions) that can help address the current challenges and ensure sustaining fish growth to meet the rising demand in Africa
  11. 11. • IMPACT – “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade” • Representation of a global competitive agricultural market for crops and livestock - 115 countries - 281 food production units - 32 agricultural commodities • IFPRI modeling team develop IMPACT fish model to examine alternative futures for global fish supply, demand, trade, and prices Foresight modeling tools
  12. 12. IMPACT fish model • Global, partial-equilibrium model • Links country-level supply and demand through global market interaction and prices • Country-level markets are linked to the rest of the world through trade • World food prices are determined annually at levels that clear international commodity markets
  13. 13. Fish to 2030 (2013)Fish to 2050 (2017) Fish to 2020 (2003) Fish IMPACT model report
  14. 14. • Review the FAO historical production data of fisheries and aquaculture from 2000 to 2015 • Current updating effort focuses on Africa, ASEAN and other the 10 top aquaculture and capture fisheries producer countries Data and model update
  15. 15. Global and Africa fish production, 1950-2050 World AfricaMillion tons Million tons
  16. 16. Africa Projected share of aquaculture and capture fisheries production
  17. 17. Million tons Aquaculture Capture fisheries Projected Africa aquaculture, capture fisheries by sub-region 2015-2050 Million tons
  18. 18. Item Year Average annual growth Average annual growth 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (2015-2030, %) (2030-2050, %) million tons Aquaculture production 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.0 0.8 Capture fisheries production 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 0.0 0.0 Net Trade -2.8 -3.8 -4.7 -5.9 -7.1 -8.6 -10.7 -13.4 5.1 4.2 kg/person/year Per capita consumption 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.8 10.2 -0.3 0.4 Projected Africa aquaculture, capture, net trade, and per capita consumption, 2015-2050
  19. 19. BAU Business-as-usual HiYld High increase in R&D investment across the CGIAR portfolio HiNARS High increase in R&D investment across the CGIAR portfolio + complementary NARS investment Kg/person/year Aquaculture production Per capita consumption Impact of investment on aquaculture in Africa, 2015-2050
  20. 20. • Growth of Africa aquaculture and capture fisheries production is slow and stagnant • African total fish consumption is low, but per capita consumption slightly increase till 2050 • More imported fish is projected to meet the increasing demand in the continent • Many large multinational companies and international research organizations are looking to the Africa region as the new frontier for aquaculture expansion Conclusions
  21. 21. • Promoting sustainable commercial aquaculture • Failure in promoting aquaculture in the past, adopt new approaches: • Development of domestic private feed industries • Diversification of culture environments and cultured fish species • development of private hatcheries, especially those targeting high commercial value species and those in high demand in consumers • Facilitate international seafood trade to address fish supply deficits in the continent • Government, private sector, consumers, non-governmental organization (NGO), and donor agencies, need to foster cooperation to strengthen strategic partnerships Policy and investment recommendations
  22. 22. Thank You
  23. 23. WorldFish geographies

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