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Aquaculture for food, nutrition, and livelihoods for poor: a reality for future?

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Global population is increasing!

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Aquaculture for food, nutrition, and livelihoods for poor: a reality for future?

  1. 1. Aquaculture for food, nutrition, and livelihoods for poor: a reality for future? Rohana Subasinghe FUTUREFISH rohana@futurefish.org
  2. 2. Global population is increasing!
  3. 3. Projected Population Changes 2010 - 2030 Source: FAO, 2017 16% 17% 20% 50%
  4. 4. Will need 35% more food by 2030! Source: FAO
  5. 5. Global economy is improving! Source: FAO
  6. 6. Will need 35% more food by 2030! Source: FAO
  7. 7. Agriculture value added in GDP and agriculture in employment is reducing!Source: FAO
  8. 8. Proportions of rural and urban rich and poor are changing! Source: FAO
  9. 9. CHANGES IN PROPORTIONS OF RURAL AND URBAN POOR, AND NON-POOR, IN TOTAL POPULATION OF SELECTED COUNTRIES, BY REGION, 1990s–2010s Source: FAO, 2017
  10. 10. Rural transformation and urbanization! Source: FAO
  11. 11. Food consumption patterns are changing! Source: FAO
  12. 12. Dietary changes: healthy food for better nutrition! Source: FAO
  13. 13. Food system transformation Source: FAO
  14. 14. Rural–urban linkages and the food system
  15. 15. 0 50 100 150 200 250 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Capture production Aquaculture World Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture (including plants) Production (mt) 94mt 106mt 200mt in 2015!
  16. 16. World Aquaculture Production 2015 Type Quantity (Live Weight) Value (First Sale) Food Fish 76.6 Million Tonnes 157.9 Billion USD Aquatic Plants 29.4 Million Tonnes 4.8 Billion USD Non-food Products 41.1 Thousand Tonnes 208.2 Million USD Total 106 Million Tonnes 163 Billion USD
  17. 17. In 2013, fish contributed 6.7% to the total per capita protein intake in the world
  18. 18. In 2013, fish contributed 16.8% to the total per capita animal protein intake in the world
  19. 19. Fish is highly nutritious. Some fish species are nutritionally superior to terrestrial meat. Ideal for the 1st 1000-day window!
  20. 20. Supply and Demand
  21. 21. Recent Models and Analyses IFPRI Fish to 2020 (Delgado et al 2003) OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 (OECD-FAO, 2012) OECD-FAO Fish Model (OECD-FAO, various issues; Lem et al., 2014) WB-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030 (World Bank 2013; Kobayashi et al., 2015) FAO 2017 Short-term projections of global fish demand-supply gaps (Cai and Leung 2017).
  22. 22. Forecast (Cai and Leung, 2017) Given that the price and consumer preference remaining same, income growth would drive world per capita fish demand up from 20 kg/year in the mid 2010s to 25 kg/year in the early 2020s.
  23. 23. 51% 18% 10% 7%
  24. 24. Forecast (Cai and Leung, 2017) This income-driven per capita fish demand, combined with population growth, would drive world fish demand up by 47 mt.
  25. 25. Finfish 27.0mt 57% Shellfish 20.4mt 43%
  26. 26. Forecast (Cai and Leung, 2017) The trend growth (business as usual) will generate 19 mt fish supply and it will only cover 40 percent of the projected demand growth. This will leave a 28 mt of fish demand- supply gap in the mid 2020s.
  27. 27. How to bridge the gap?  Better fisheries management Waste reduction Increase aquaculture growth
  28. 28. Forecast (Cai and Leung, 2017) Following its recent trend (business as usual), world aquaculture would grow 4.5 percent per year from the mid 2010s to mid 2020s. However, to bridge the demand-supply gap, world aquaculture should grow at 9.9 percent per year until mid 2020s.
  29. 29. Can we achieve this?
  30. 30. Issues and Challenges Optimizing resource use efficiency Reducing cost of production Being competitive in the market
  31. 31. Issues and Challenges Reducing disease risks Diagnostics, vaccines, high health seed and resistant strains Emerging diseases!
  32. 32. Issues and Challenges Improving genetics Improved broodstock and seed quality Improved growth performance
  33. 33. Higher fish but lower micronutrient intake… “……. Our results challenge the conventional narrative that increases in food supply lead to improvements in diet and nutrition. As aquaculture becomes an increasingly important food source, it must embrace a nutrition sensitive approach, moving beyond maximising productivity to also consider nutritional quality. Doing so will optimise the complementary role that aquaculture play in improving nutrition and health.”
  34. 34. Aquaculture for food, nutrition, and livelihoods for poor: a reality for future?
  35. 35. Future! Yes, aquaculture is and will be a solution for food, nutrition and livelihoods for poor! Yes, we can bridge the supply-demand gap!
  36. 36. Future! We must be vigilant on regional supplies and demands! It is very important to ensure necessary fish food system transformations are addressed.
  37. 37. Future! Most important is that fish will continue to be the accessible and affordable nutritious food commodity for poor! We have to ensure affordable fish are produced to feed the increasing African population. It is our obligation and should be the commitment!
  38. 38. My sincere thanks to FAO and WorldFish for information and data!
  39. 39. Thank You!

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