Global population is increasing!

1. Aquaculture for food, nutrition,
and livelihoods for poor:
a reality for future?
Rohana Subasinghe
FUTUREFISH
rohana@futurefish.org

2. Global population is
increasing!

4. Projected Population Changes 2010 - 2030
Source: FAO, 2017
16% 17%
20%
50%

7. Will need 35% more
food by 2030!
Source: FAO

8. Global economy
is improving!
Source: FAO

13. Will need 35% more
food by 2030!
Source: FAO

15. Agriculture value added
in GDP and agriculture
in employment
is reducing!Source: FAO

17. Proportions of rural
and urban rich
and poor are changing!
Source: FAO

18. CHANGES IN PROPORTIONS OF RURAL AND URBAN POOR, AND NON-POOR, IN TOTAL
POPULATION OF SELECTED COUNTRIES, BY REGION, 1990s–2010s
Source: FAO, 2017

20. Rural transformation
and urbanization!
Source: FAO

23. Food consumption
patterns are changing!
Source: FAO

27. Dietary changes:
healthy food
for better nutrition!
Source: FAO

29. Food system
transformation
Source: FAO

31. Rural–urban linkages
and the food system

35. 0
50
100
150
200
250
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Capture production Aquaculture
World Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture
(including plants) Production (mt)
94mt
106mt
200mt in 2015!

36. World Aquaculture Production 2015
Type Quantity
(Live Weight)
Value
(First Sale)
Food Fish 76.6 Million Tonnes 157.9 Billion USD
Aquatic Plants 29.4 Million Tonnes 4.8 Billion USD
Non-food Products 41.1 Thousand Tonnes 208.2 Million USD
Total 106 Million Tonnes 163 Billion USD

37. In 2013, fish
contributed 6.7% to the
total per capita protein
intake in the world

38. In 2013, fish contributed
16.8% to the total per
capita animal protein
intake in the world

39. Fish is highly
nutritious. Some
fish species are
nutritionally
superior to
terrestrial meat.
Ideal for the 1st
1000-day
window!

40. Supply and Demand

41. Recent Models and Analyses
IFPRI Fish to 2020 (Delgado et al 2003)
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 (OECD-FAO, 2012)
OECD-FAO Fish Model (OECD-FAO, various issues; Lem et al., 2014)
WB-IFPRI-FAO Fish to 2030 (World Bank 2013; Kobayashi et al.,
2015)
FAO 2017 Short-term projections of global fish demand-supply gaps
(Cai and Leung 2017).

43. Forecast (Cai and Leung, 2017)
Given that the price and consumer
preference remaining same, income growth
would drive world per capita fish demand
up from 20 kg/year in the mid 2010s to 25
kg/year in the early 2020s.

44. 51%
18%
10%
7%

45. Forecast (Cai and Leung, 2017)
This income-driven per capita fish demand,
combined with population growth, would
drive world fish demand up by 47 mt.

46. Finfish
27.0mt
57%
Shellfish
20.4mt
43%

47. Forecast (Cai and Leung, 2017)
The trend growth (business as usual) will
generate 19 mt fish supply and it will only
cover 40 percent of the projected demand
growth.
This will leave a 28 mt of fish demand-
supply gap in the mid 2020s.

48. How to bridge the gap?
 Better fisheries management
Waste reduction
Increase aquaculture growth

49. Forecast (Cai and Leung, 2017)
Following its recent trend (business as usual),
world aquaculture would grow 4.5 percent per
year from the mid 2010s to mid 2020s.
However, to bridge the demand-supply gap,
world aquaculture should grow at 9.9 percent
per year until mid 2020s.

50. Can we
achieve this?

51. Issues and Challenges
Optimizing resource use
efficiency
Reducing cost of
production
Being competitive in the
market

52. Issues and Challenges
Reducing disease
risks
Diagnostics,
vaccines, high health
seed and resistant
strains
Emerging diseases!

53. Issues and Challenges
Improving genetics
Improved
broodstock and seed
quality
Improved growth
performance

55. Higher fish but lower micronutrient intake…
“……. Our results challenge the conventional
narrative that increases in food supply lead to
improvements in diet and nutrition. As aquaculture
becomes an increasingly important food source, it
must embrace a nutrition sensitive approach, moving
beyond maximising productivity to also consider
nutritional quality. Doing so will optimise the
complementary role that aquaculture play in
improving nutrition and health.”

57. Aquaculture for food, nutrition,
and livelihoods for poor:
a reality for future?

58. Future!
Yes, aquaculture is and will be a solution for
food, nutrition and livelihoods for poor!
Yes, we can bridge the supply-demand gap!

59. Future!
We must be vigilant on regional supplies
and demands!
It is very important to ensure necessary fish
food system transformations are addressed.

60. Future!
Most important is that fish will continue to
be the accessible and affordable nutritious
food commodity for poor!
We have to ensure affordable fish are
produced to feed the increasing African
population. It is our obligation and should be
the commitment!

61. My sincere thanks to FAO and
WorldFish for information and data!

62. Thank You!