Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2010

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Q1 2010 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Q1 2010

  1. 1. Q1 2010 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India A Manpower Research Report
  2. 2. Q1/10 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Contents India Employment Outlook Comparisons Sector Comparisons Employment Outlook 8 International Comparisons – Asia Pacific International Comparisons – Americas International Comparisons – Europe International Comparisons – EMEA About the Survey 17 About Manpower 18
  3. 3. India Employment Outlook Brisk hiring activity is anticipated by Indian employers The Manpower during the upcoming quarter. With 38% of employers expecting total employment to increase, 2% forecasting Employment Outlook a decrease and 53% predicting no change, the Net Employment Outlook is a robust +36% Survey for the first quarter Throughout this report, we use the term “Net 2010 was conducted by Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total interviewing a employment to increase, and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment representative sample of at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. 5,109 employers in India. While the Outlook only improves by a slight 2 All survey participants were percentage points quarter-over-quarter, it is a considerable 18 percentage points stronger year-over- asked, “How do you year. Once seasonal adjustment is added to the data, the anticipate total employment Outlook stands at +39%. The Outlook improves considerably both quarter-over-quarter and year-over- at your location to change year, by 11 and 18 percentage points, respectively. in the three months to the From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated end of March 2010 as otherwise. compared to the current quarter?” Net Employment Seasonally Increase Decrease No Change Don't Know Outlook Adjusted 1
  4. 4. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Regional Comparisons Headcount gains are forecast in all four regions during percentage point improvement in the Outlook reported Quarter 1 2010. Employers in the North report bullish for the North, while in the West, the Outlook improves hiring plans, with a Net Employment Outlook of +44%, by 20 percentage points. In the East, the Outlook is 19 and a dynamic labor market is anticipated in the West percentage points stronger, and in the South, it and the East, with both Outlooks at +40%. In the South, improves by 10 percentage points. the Outlook is a robust +36%. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in all four Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions have regions forecast robust headcount gains during Quarter strengthened in all four regions, most notably by 16 1 2010, with booming hiring prospects reported by percentage points in the North. The Outlook improves employers in the North. Quarter-over-quarter, the by a considerable 13 percentage points in the West, by Outlook is considerably stronger in the North, West and 9 percentage points in the South and by 8 percentage South regions. Year-over-year, the Outlook is points in the East. considerably stronger in all four regions. Comparison with Quarter 1 2009 also reveals stronger hiring prospects in all four regions. There is a sharp 24 42 2
  5. 5. North East Employers in the North report bullish hiring plans for Employers forecast a booming labor market in Quarter 1 Quarter 1 2010 with a Net Employment Outlook of 2010. The Net Employment Outlook of +40% is the +44%. Hiring intentions have improved by a strongest in the region since Quarter 3 2006, and has considerable 16 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, improved both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, and the Outlook increases by a sharp 24 percentage by 8 and 19 percentage points, respectively. points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast brisk hiring activity in the forthcoming quarter, and while vigorous hiring activity in the upcoming quarter. Hiring the Outlook is only slightly stronger quarter-over-quarter, prospects are considerably stronger quarter-over- it improves considerably year-over-year. quarter, and improve sharply year-over-year. South West With a Net Employment Outlook of +36%, employers In the West, employers forecast a dynamic hiring climate anticipate a prosperous labor market in Quarter 1 2010. for the upcoming quarter, reporting a Net Employment Quarter-over-quarter, the Outlook improves by 9 Outlook of +40%. Hiring intentions in the region improve percentage points, while year-over-year it strengthens by a considerable 13 percentage points quarter-over- by 10 percentage points. quarter, while year-over-year, the Outlook is 20 percentage points stronger. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report bright hiring prospects for Quarter 1 2010. Although the Based on unadjusted survey data, employers anticipate Outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, prosperous headcount growth in the upcoming quarter. there is a considerable improvement year-over-year. Hiring plans are slightly stronger when compared to Quarter 4 2009, and strengthen sharply year-over-year. 3
  6. 6. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Sector Comparisons Employers in all seven industry sectors anticipate also reported for both the Public Administration & headcount growth during Quarter 1 2010. The most Education sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade dynamic hiring environment is forecast in the Services sector. sector, where employers report a Net Employment When compared to Quarter 1 2009, the Outlook is Outlook of +47%. Bullish hiring intentions are also considerably stronger in all seven industry sectors. evident in the Public Administration & Education sector, Employers in the Public Administration & Education where the Outlook is +43%. In the Mining & sector and the Services sector report sharp increases of Construction sector, the Outlook is a robust +38%, 25 and 23 percentage points, respectively, while in the while in both the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, the Outlook is 22 sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, percentage points stronger. employers report Outlooks of +37%. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report Quarter-over-quarter, hiring intentions are stronger in all positive hiring prospects in all industry sectors. Booming seven industry sectors. The most notable improvement labor markets are predicted in the Services sector and of 20 percentage points is reported in the Services in the Public Administration & Education sector. sector, and there is a 16 percentage point increase in Quarter-over-quarter, Outlooks are slightly weaker in five the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector Outlook. sectors, but year-over-year, hiring intentions are Considerable improvements of 10 percentage points are considerably stronger in all seven. 4
  7. 7. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Manufacturing With a Net Employment Outlook of +37%, employers Bright hiring prospects are forecast for the sector in anticipate robust headcount growth during Quarter 1 Quarter 1 2010. Employers report a Net Employment 2010. Hiring prospects in the sector are considerably Outlook of +33%, reflecting improvements of 8 stronger, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 13 improving by 16 and 18 percentage points, respectively. percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report bright hiring climate for the upcoming quarter. The optimistic hiring plans for the upcoming quarter. Outlook is moderately stronger quarter-over-quarter, and Prospects for job seekers are relatively stable quarter- improves considerably when compared to Quarter 1 over-quarter, and are considerably stronger year-over- 2009. year. Mining & Construction Public Admin/ Education Sector employers forecast a prosperous labor market in Employers anticipate a bullish hiring climate in Quarter 1 Quarter 1 2010, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of 2010, reporting the strongest hiring prospects in the +38%. Hiring plans have strengthened both quarter- sector since the survey began in Quarter 3 2005. The Net over-quarter and year-over-year, with the Outlook Employment Outlook of +43% is 10 percentage points improving by 7 and 13 percentage points, respectively. stronger quarter-over-quarter, and improves by a steep 25 percentage points when compared to Quarter 1 2009. Based on unadjusted survey data, a bright hiring climate is forecast. While there is a slight decline in the Outlook Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year it is considerably vigorous hiring activity in the upcoming quarter. The stronger. Outlook remains relatively stable quarter-over-quarter, but improves sharply year-over-year. 5
  8. 8. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Services Transportation & Utilities Sector employers forecast a booming labor market for Solid hiring activity is anticipated in the sector during the upcoming quarter, with a Net Employment Outlook Quarter 1 2010, with employers reporting a Net of +47%. Hiring prospects have strengthened sharply Employment Outlook of +28%. Quarter-over-quarter, the both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with the Outlook improves by a slight 4 percentage points, while Outlook improving by 20 and 23 percentage points, year-over-year it strengthens by 11 percentage points. respectively. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers forecast Based on unadjusted survey data, bullish hiring plans an active labor market in Quarter 1 2010. Hiring plans are evident for the upcoming quarter. The Outlook is are moderately weaker when compared to the previous considerably stronger both quarter-over-quarter and quarter, but are considerably stronger year-over-year. year-over-year. 6
  9. 9. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Wholesale & Retail Trade With a Net Employment Outlook of +37%, employers anticipate a brisk hiring pace in Quarter 1 2010. The Outlook is 10 percentage points stronger than in the previous quarter, and improves by a sharp 22 percentage points year-over-year. Based on unadjusted survey data, employers report robust hiring plans for the upcoming quarter, and while the Outlook is slightly weaker quarter-over-quarter, it is sharply improved year-over-year. 7
  10. 10. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Global Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change Americas Quarter 1 2009 Quarter 4 2009 Quarter 1 2010 Q4 2009 to Q1 2010 Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 % % % Argentina 8 3 12 9 4 Brazil – 21 31 10 – Canada 7 (18)1 4 (7)1 2 (13)1 -2 (6)1 -5 (-5)1 Colombia 16 13 9 -4 -7 Costa Rica 19 6 20 14 1 Guatemala 7 1 12 11 5 Mexico -2 (-6)1 4 (4)1 6 (6)1 2 (2)1 8 (12)1 Peru 24 9 19 10 -5 United States 3 (9)1 -2 (-2)1 0 (6)1 2 (8)1 -3 (-3)1 Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change Asia Pacific Quarter 1 2009 Quarter 4 2009 Quarter 1 2010 Q4 2009 to Q1 2010 Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 % % % Australia 6 (6)1 9 (8)1 19 (19)1 10 (11)1 13 (13)1 China 9 (7) 1 11 (10)1 14 (11)1 3 (1)1 5 (4)1 Hong Kong 1 (3)1 4 (4)1 13 (14)1 9 (10)1 12 (11)1 India 18 (21)1 34 (28) 1 36 (39) 1 2 (11) 1 18 (18)1 1 1 1 Japan -3 (3) 1 -4 (-2) -4 (-1) 0 (1) -1 (-4)1 1 1 1 New Zealand 0 (-1)1 1 (1) 14 (13) 13 (12) 14 (14)1 1 1 1 Singapore -38 (-34) 1 14 (17) 22 (26) 8 (9) 60 (60)1 Taiwan -6 (-3)1 17 (19)1 22 (25)1 5 (6)1 28 (28)1 Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change EMEA* Quarter 1 2009 Quarter 4 2009 Quarter 1 2010 Q4 2009 to Q1 2010 Q1 2009 to Q1 2010 % % % Austria -2 (2)1 -3 (-3)1 -1 (3)1 2 (6)1 1 (1)1 1 1 1 1 Belgium 7 (6) 2 (-1) -4 (-5) -6 (-4) -11 (-11)1 Czech Republic -4 -4 -6 -2 -2 France -3 (-2)1 0 (-1)1 0 (1)1 0 (2)1 3 (3)1 Germany -1 (3)1 -1 (-1)1 1 (5)1 2 (6)1 2 (2)1 Greece 3 0 1 1 -2 Hungary – -4 -7 -3 – Ireland -14 (-12)1 -10 (-8)1 -13 (-11)1 -3 (-3)1 1 (1)1 Italy -11 (-9)1 -5 (-3)1 -8 (-6)1 -3 (-3)1 3 (3)1 1 1 1 1 Netherlands 6 (7) 2 (0) -3 (-3) -5 (-3) -9 (-10)1 Norway 5 (6)1 1 (4)1 5 (6)1 4 (2)1 0 (0)1 Poland 12 5 4 -1 -8 Romania 16 -11 -11 0 -27 South Africa 13 1 13 12 0 Spain -13 (-12)1 -11 (-8)1 -12 (-11)1 -1 (-3)1 1 (1)1 Sweden 0 (4)1 3 (3) 1 2 (6) 1 -1 (3) 1 2 (2)1 1 1 1 1 Switzerland 7 (5) -3 (0) 4 (1) 7 (1) -3 (-4)1 UK -5 (-4)1 0 (-1)1 -1 (0)1 -1 (1)1 4 (4)1 *EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa. vity. Please note that this data 8
  11. 11. Nearly 71,000 employers have been interviewed across Peru. Conversely, employer hiring expectations are 35 countries and territories to measure anticipated weakest in Ireland, Romania and Spain. employment trends* between January and March 2010. Regionally, employers across the Americas report All participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total positive Net Employment Outlooks, with only employers employment at your location to change in the three in Colombia reporting a weaker forecast compared to months to the end of March 2010 as compared to the Quarter 4 2009. Employers in Brazil, Costa Rica and current quarter?” Peru report the strongest hiring plans in the region. Job prospects in the U.S. and Mexico are the weakest in the Hiring activity is expected to be mostly positive region, however employer hiring sentiment is stronger throughout the Asia Pacific and Americas, but employer than three months ago in both countries. Labor market forecasts in the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) strength in Asia Pacific is expected to be similar to that region are mixed. Employers in 25 of the 35 countries seen prior to the global downturn, with employers in and territories Manpower surveys expect to add to their India reporting the most optimistic hiring plans globally. workforces in Quarter 1 2010. Where quarter-over- In the EMEA region, hiring sentiments are mixed with quarter comparisons are available, Outlooks improve in employers in nine countries indicating modest 25 of 35 countries and territories. Hiring expectations improvements from three months ago. are also stronger in 19 of 33 countries and territories * Comments in this section are based on seasonally where year-over-year comparisons can be made. adjusted data where available. Employment forecasts are most favorable in India, Brazil, Singapore, Taiwan, Costa Rica, Australia and Survey Respondents by Region Research for the Quarter 1 2010 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying nearly 71,000 human resource directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide. 56% of the respondents came from nine countries in the Americas; 22% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 22% from 18 countries in EMEA. 9
  12. 12. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India International Comparisons – Asia Pacific Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted across territory from both three months ago and last year at this the Asia Pacific region to measure anticipated hiring time. Considerable quarter-over-quarter and year-over- activity between January and March 2010. Hiring plans year improvements in India's Services sector are a key are strongest in India, Singapore, Taiwan and Australia, reason why the country's employers are anticipating the with Japanese employers reporting the weakest – and strongest hiring plans in the region. Conversely, the only negative – Outlook. Employer optimism increased survey indicates Japanese employers will remain the from Quarter 4 2009 in all eight countries and territories most reluctant to hire in the region: the weakest job surveyed. Year-over-year comparisons also reveal prospects are reported in Japan's Transportation & stronger hiring plans in all countries and territories Utilities industry sector where 24 percent of employers except Japan. plan to reduce staff in the next three months. Employer hiring intentions in the Manufacturing industry sector are boosting optimism throughout the region with forecasts for the sector improving in every country and Australia China Hong Kong India 10
  13. 13. Japan New Zealand Singapore Taiwan 11
  14. 14. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India International Comparisons – Americas Nearly 39,500 interviews were conducted across the For the second consecutive quarter, employers in Brazil Americas region to measure anticipated hiring activity anticipate the most active hiring pace, driven by bullish between January and March 2010. forecasts in the Construction industry sector. Favorable opportunities for job seekers are also reported by Employers across the nine countries surveyed in the employers in Costa Rica, Peru and Canada. Meanwhile, region report varying degrees of positive hiring activity. employers in the United States are more optimistic: they On a quarter-over-quarter basis, only employers in return the Outlook to positive territory three months after Colombia are reporting weaker hiring plans. Meanwhile, reporting the weakest jobs forecast since the survey year-over-year comparisons remain mixed; Outlooks began. Additionally, the percentage of U.S. employers strengthen in four of the eight countries where data is saying they will hold on to their current staff through the available. Notably, Mexican employers anticipate a next quarter is the highest in the history of the survey, stronger year-over-year hiring pace in every industry suggesting some stability in the labor market for the sector and region. quarter ahead. Argentina Canada Colombia Costa Rica 12
  15. 15. Guatemala Mexico USA Peru 13
  16. 16. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India International Comparisons – EMEA Interviews with nearly 16,000 employers across 18 fueled partly by optimism in the Finance and Business countries were conducted to measure anticipated Services industry sector where 16 percent of employers employment trends across the Europe, Middle East and indicate they will add employees in the next three months. Africa (EMEA) region for quarter 1 2010. Negative hiring intentions are reported by employers in Hiring expectations are mixed with employers in nine eight countries for the first three months of the year. countries reporting positive hiring activity for the quarter Declining employer confidence among Dutch ahead. Compared to three months ago, the pace of Manufacturing sector employers is contributing to the hiring is expected to improve in nine countries and in country's least optimistic – and only negative – forecast eight countries where year-over-year comparisons can since the survey began in the country. Employers in be made. Hiring activity in the region is expected to be Belgium, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and strongest in South Africa, Norway and Sweden. German Romania are also reporting their weakest hiring plans to employers are also anticipating a stronger labor market, date. Austria Belgium Czech Republic France 14
  17. 17. Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Poland 15
  18. 18. Romania South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland UK 16
  19. 19. About the Survey months to the end of March 2010 as compared to the current quarter?” The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers' intentions Net Employment Outlook to increase or decrease the number of employees in Throughout this report, we use the term “Net their workforces during the next quarter. The survey has Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking been running for more than 45 years and is one of the the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in most trusted surveys of employment activity in the hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage world. Various factors underpin the success of the of employers expecting to see a decrease in Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. Seasonal Adjustment Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for is the most extensive, forward-looking employment Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, China, France, survey in the world, asking employers to forecast Germany, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United report on what occurred in the past. Kingdom and the United States to provide additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it Independent: The survey is conducted with a possible to review the data without the employment representative sample of employers from throughout the fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each countries in which it is conducted. The survey year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over participants are not derived from Manpower's customer time. Manpower intends to add seasonal adjustments to base the data for other countries in the future, as more Robust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, 71,000 public and private employers across 35 Manpower adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of countries and territories to measure anticipated seasonal adjustment for data. employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for History of the Survey analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information. 1962 First generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey launched in the United States Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has and Canada. derived all of its information from a single question. 1966 Manpower's United Kingdom operation Methodology launches the equivalent of the United States The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is survey, naming the report the Quarterly Survey conducted using a validated methodology, in of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts accordance with the highest standards in market the same forward looking research format as research. The research team for the 35 countries and the United States survey and is the first of its territories where the survey is currently conducted kind in Europe. includes Manpower's internal research team and 1976 Second generation of Manpower's Infocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be Employment Outlook Survey launched in the representative of each national economy. United States and Canada. Research Survey Question methodology is updated to evolve with advancements in the field of market research. All employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, “How do you anticipate total 2002 Manpower United Kingdom's Quarterly Survey employment at your location to change in the three of Employment Prospects is updated to adopt 17
  20. 20. an enhanced research methodology. Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Manpower's operations in Mexico and Ireland Romania join the survey program. China and launch the survey in their respective countries. Taiwan add seasonally adjusted data in the second quarter. India and Switzerland add 2003 Third generation of the Manpower Employment seasonally adjusted data in the third quarter. Outlook Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total of 18 countries worldwide: 2009 Manpower operations in Hungary and Brazil Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Survey. Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United About Manpower Inc. States. Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the 2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch employment services industry; creating and delivering the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. services that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work. Founded in 1948, the $22 billion 2005 Manpower operations in China, India, company offers employers a range of services for the Switzerland, and Taiwan launch the Manpower entire employment and business cycle including Employment Outlook Survey. permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment and selection; training; 2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica and Peru outplacement; outsourcing and consulting. join the survey program. Surveys in Australia, Manpower's worldwide network of 4,000 offices in 82 Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong countries and territories enables the company to meet Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the needs of its 400,000 clients per year, including small Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain and and medium size enterprises in all industry sectors, as Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the well as the world's largest multinational corporations. third quarter. Manpower operations in South The focus of Manpower's work is on raising productivity Africa launch the Manpower Employment through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction Outlook Survey. across their total workforce, enabling clients to 2007 Manpower operations in Argentina join the concentrate on their core business activities. Manpower Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. The Inc. operates under five brands: Manpower, Manpower survey in New Zealand adds seasonally Professional, Elan, Jefferson Wells and Right adjusted data in the first quarter. Management. More information on Manpower Inc. is available at www.manpower.com. 2008 Manpower operations in Colombia, the Czech 18
  21. 21. Manpower Services India Pvt. Ltd. A-16,LGF Mohan Cooperative Industrial Estate, Mathura Road, New Delhi 110044 India Tel: +91 (11) 40565901 marketing@manpower.co.in www.manpowerprofessional.co.in © 2009, Manpower Inc. All rights reserved.

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