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Water Land Ecosystem
High level dialogue
New Delhi
3rd May 2013
Prof. Johan Rockström
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Sustaina...
2 Photos: Mattias Klum
3 - 6 - 9
A Biosphere Shaped by Humanity
Growing
Human Pressure
[20/80 dilemma]
Climate change
[560/450/400 dilemma]
Surprise
[99/1 dilemma]
Ecosystem
decline
[60 ...
13-09-20 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke,
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Humanity has reached a
planetary saturation
point
The...
Goal 1: Ending Extreme Poverty
Goal 2: Achieving Development within Planetary Boundaries
Goal 3: Achieve Gender Equality, ...
…
Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475
Global fresh-
water use
Transgressing safe
boundaries
Global water resources in
the Anthropocene
IPCC AR4 Scenario, Mean
deviation (%) 2080-2099,
ensemble models
Social futures 2050
7000  > 9000 km3
/yr
Hansen et al 2012
Extreme weather
events more
common, with
larger social and
economic
impacts, coupled
to human
induced climate
change
Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters
Food production to increase by ~70 % by 2050 to eradicate
hunger on a planet with ~9 billion people (IIASTD 2009)
0
2 000
...
In the search of a new paradigm
For Sustainable Intensification
Of Agriculture for Human
Prosperity
Mats Lannerstad et al., in Prep
Green-Blue resources for sustainable
development
100%100%
60%60%
40%40%
GLOBAL
INDIA
KENYA
Dependence on green and blue water 2000
114
654
1080
239
787
1505
1692
907
219
Comprehensive Assessment 2007
Critical transitions or regime shifts
Regime shifts are substantial, persistent, reorganizations in
ecosystem structure an...
Agricultural Modification of ‘Green’ (ET) water flows
Irrigation + 1800-2500 km3
/yr
Deforestation - 3000 km3
/yr
Gordon e...
Moisture feedback critical for rainfall
Operationalising a
Paradigm Shift
Elements of a Paradigm Shift
• Integrated reform of irrigated and rainfed agriculture
(participation; watershed management...
IrrigatedRainfed
A triply Green Revolution
– 2-3 X production
– Social-Ecological Resilience
– Green water management
Meeting the Global fo...
Strategies to upgrade
rainfed agriculture
• Increase Crop water
uptake capaciy
• Increase Crop water
Availability
Upgradin...
Smallholder Agriculture
+ Water =
Solutions to Rural
Poverty & Hunger
www.awm-solutions.iwmi.orgwww.awm-solutions.iwmi.org
Resource Reuse and Recovery:
Productive Sanitation
35
Drip irrigation: urine + water
PhotoB.Comoe
Photo:DrRodda.W
UnivofKw...
Integrated Land and water resource management
Payments for Ecosystem Services
< 25%
25 - 50%
50 - 75%
75 - 100%
Green Wate...
Improved land
management practices in
Agriculture has the
potentialt to sequester 0.4
– 1.2 Gt C/år
(Rathan Lal, Science 2...
A new framework for
Sustainable Development
Photo Mattias Klum
Feeding the world in the Anthropocene
within a safe operating space of Planetary
Boundaries requires a ...
TitleOur vision:
A world in which agriculture thrives
within vibrant ecosystems, where
communities have higher incomes,
im...
Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm
Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm
Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm
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Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm

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Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm

A presentation by Prof. Johan Rockström from Stockholm Resilience Centre

Water Land Ecosystem
High level dialogue
New Delhi

3rd May 2013

Published in: Technology
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Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm

  1. 1. Water Land Ecosystem High level dialogue New Delhi 3rd May 2013 Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre Sustainable Intensification of Agricultural Development: The scientific support for a new paradigm
  2. 2. 2 Photos: Mattias Klum 3 - 6 - 9 A Biosphere Shaped by Humanity
  3. 3. Growing Human Pressure [20/80 dilemma] Climate change [560/450/400 dilemma] Surprise [99/1 dilemma] Ecosystem decline [60 % loss dilemma] Global Freshwater Resources
  4. 4. 13-09-20 Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre Humanity has reached a planetary saturation point The Human ability to do has vastly outstripped our ability to understand A resilient biosphere the basis for humen development Fierce urgency of now A great transformation to global sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable
  5. 5. Goal 1: Ending Extreme Poverty Goal 2: Achieving Development within Planetary Boundaries Goal 3: Achieve Gender Equality, Human Rights and the Rule of Law Goal 4: Achieving Food Security and Rural Prosperity Goal 5: Empowering Inclusive, Productive and Resilient Cities Goal 6: Achieving Health and Wellbeing at all Ages Goal 7: Ensure Effective Learning for Every Child for Life and Livelihood Goal 8: Curbing Human-Induced Climate Change Goal 9: Securing Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity Goal 10: Transforming Governance for Sustainable Development
  6. 6. … Rockström et al. 2009 Nature, 461 (24): 472-475 Global fresh- water use Transgressing safe boundaries
  7. 7. Global water resources in the Anthropocene
  8. 8. IPCC AR4 Scenario, Mean deviation (%) 2080-2099, ensemble models Social futures 2050 7000  > 9000 km3 /yr
  9. 9. Hansen et al 2012
  10. 10. Extreme weather events more common, with larger social and economic impacts, coupled to human induced climate change
  11. 11. Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters
  12. 12. Food production to increase by ~70 % by 2050 to eradicate hunger on a planet with ~9 billion people (IIASTD 2009) 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050 year km3 0 100 200 300 1960 1970 1980 1990 2002 2015 2030 2050 year km3 Increase to reach the Hunger Goal 2015 2002 base line The MDG Water Challenge
  13. 13. In the search of a new paradigm For Sustainable Intensification Of Agriculture for Human Prosperity
  14. 14. Mats Lannerstad et al., in Prep
  15. 15. Green-Blue resources for sustainable development 100%100% 60%60% 40%40% GLOBAL INDIA KENYA
  16. 16. Dependence on green and blue water 2000 114 654 1080 239 787 1505 1692 907 219 Comprehensive Assessment 2007
  17. 17. Critical transitions or regime shifts Regime shifts are substantial, persistent, reorganizations in ecosystem structure and processes Diverse Coral dominated Algae Dominated Reef Parkland Savanna Bush steppe
  18. 18. Agricultural Modification of ‘Green’ (ET) water flows Irrigation + 1800-2500 km3 /yr Deforestation - 3000 km3 /yr Gordon et al. 2005, 2008 Total ET roughly 67000 km3 /yr Monsoon collapse Savannisation Dry savanna – wet savanna
  19. 19. Moisture feedback critical for rainfall
  20. 20. Operationalising a Paradigm Shift
  21. 21. Elements of a Paradigm Shift • Integrated reform of irrigated and rainfed agriculture (participation; watershed management; blue-green integration) • Nexus approach to land-water-ecosystems; agriculture- energy-water • Landscape and water restoration • Rural water and sanitation – resource reuse • Water and wastewater use • Integated land, water ecoystem management • Institution reform (national water framework)
  22. 22. IrrigatedRainfed
  23. 23. A triply Green Revolution – 2-3 X production – Social-Ecological Resilience – Green water management Meeting the Global food challenge
  24. 24. Strategies to upgrade rainfed agriculture • Increase Crop water uptake capaciy • Increase Crop water Availability Upgrading Rainfed agriculture
  25. 25. Smallholder Agriculture + Water = Solutions to Rural Poverty & Hunger www.awm-solutions.iwmi.orgwww.awm-solutions.iwmi.org
  26. 26. Resource Reuse and Recovery: Productive Sanitation 35 Drip irrigation: urine + water PhotoB.Comoe Photo:DrRodda.W UnivofKwaZulu-Na
  27. 27. Integrated Land and water resource management Payments for Ecosystem Services < 25% 25 - 50% 50 - 75% 75 - 100% Green Water Credits Tana Basin, Kenya 0 50 10025 Km ± Decrease in Erosion (%)
  28. 28. Improved land management practices in Agriculture has the potentialt to sequester 0.4 – 1.2 Gt C/år (Rathan Lal, Science 2004) Transforming Agriculture from Source to Sink Coupling land management, fertilisation and water resource management (e.g., CA, ES, WH)
  29. 29. A new framework for Sustainable Development
  30. 30. Photo Mattias Klum Feeding the world in the Anthropocene within a safe operating space of Planetary Boundaries requires a major global transformation of Agriculture Sustainable Intensification for food security and rural prosperity the only possible strategy
  31. 31. TitleOur vision: A world in which agriculture thrives within vibrant ecosystems, where communities have higher incomes, improved food security and the ability to continuously improve their lives

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