CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
WATER MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
John Metzger, Senior Adviser
Zambezi...
Presentation Outline
2
1. Basin Context
2. Challenges
3. Opportunities
4. Next steps
Context
the Zambezi and other River Basins:
3
Okavango Mekong Nile Zambezi
Basin Area
(km2)
429,400 822,200 160,000,000 1,...
Key features - the Zambezi River Basin
4
8 countries:
Angola
Botswana
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
1...
The Zambezi River Basin
Basin areas by country
5
the Zambezi River Basin
Population and distribution
6
Within the
basin:
> 32 million
today:
85% in
Malawi,
Zambia and
Zimb...
The Zambezi River Basin
7
The Zambezi River Basin
Economic development
8
> 6% annual economic growth
Annual GDP: $100bn annual GDP
GDP/capita: $122 ...
Challenges9
Challenges
Socio-economic
10
Lack of significant investments in infrastructure in the
past 30 years
Limited coordinated de...
Challenges
Climate Change Impacts
11
Preliminary assessments:
Likely reduced runoff yield
Reduced flows of 26-40%
Increase...
Challenges
12
Benefits of cooperation have been recognised
but realising them has been elusive
No significant investments ...
Opportunities13
Opportunities
The time is right for action now!14
Pent-up socio-economic demand in the region
Political will is there:
Leg...
Enabling legal frameworks for cooperation
based on benefit-sharing:
15
Initiatives on-going from the1940s
Zambezi River Au...
ZAMCOM Agreement
16
Objective:
“To promote the equitable and reasonable
utilisation of the water resources of the Zambezi
...
ZAMCOM Governance
17
Long history of cooperative efforts,
supported by solid analytical foundations
providing a strong data, information and
kn...
Analytical Framework
for equitable and reasonable utilisation
19
Transboundary Cooperation
Types of benefits
20
(Sadoff and Grey, 2005)
Type Opportunity
1. To
the river
Improved quality, ...
“Balanced” approach
Zambezi River basin development
21
SAPP: Southern Africa Power
Pool investment plan
Development Opportunities
Balanced scenario
22
A balanced approach combining hydropower,
irrigation and other investments
...
23
Existing and Potential HEPs
24
Existing and Potential HEPs
Zambezi mainstream
Current and Potential Hydropower
25
Coordinated operation of existing dams = 7% increase in
firm energy adding $585m over ...
Current and Potential Irrigation
26
Current
Identified
100 ha
1,000 ha
10,000 ha
100,000 ha
Current and Potential Irrigation
27
Current Potential
With potential
investments:
$2.5 bn
Increase average
area irrigated ...
Other opportunities/benefits
28
Disaster Risk Reduction:
Hydropower and irrigation interventions will increase resilience ...
29 Next steps:
“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now
30
Clearly demonstrate the added-value of
collaboration in river basin management and
developm...
“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now
31
1. Effective ZAMCOM governance:
Institutional arrangements, legal frameworks,
political wil...
“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now
32
2. Shared data, information and knowledge
platforms
Shared data and information system - ZA...
“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now
33
3. Develop and agree the “Zambezi Strategic Plan”
A “rolling” strategic planning process
Ba...
Selected References
34
• SADC. 2011. Dam Synchronisation and Flood Releases in the Zambezi
River Basin Project.
• Sadoff, ...
Thank you!35
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Challenges and Opportunities: water management and development in the Zambezi

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Transboundary Water Management Workshop held in Johannesburg, South Africa from April 29-30, 2014.

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Challenges and Opportunities: water management and development in the Zambezi

  1. 1. CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES WATER MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN John Metzger, Senior Adviser Zambezi Watercourse Commission, Harare, Zimbabwe 29 April 2014
  2. 2. Presentation Outline 2 1. Basin Context 2. Challenges 3. Opportunities 4. Next steps
  3. 3. Context the Zambezi and other River Basins: 3 Okavango Mekong Nile Zambezi Basin Area (km2) 429,400 822,200 160,000,000 1,370,000 Avg annual flow (km3) 10 495 84 @ Aswan 130 River length (km) 1,100 4,800 6,853 2,650 Population (million) 1.3 > 60 > 160 > 32 Riparian countries 3 6 11 8
  4. 4. Key features - the Zambezi River Basin 4 8 countries: Angola Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe 13 sub-basins:
  5. 5. The Zambezi River Basin Basin areas by country 5
  6. 6. the Zambezi River Basin Population and distribution 6 Within the basin: > 32 million today: 85% in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe Increasing to 51 million by 2025 7.6 million in 21 urban centres
  7. 7. The Zambezi River Basin 7
  8. 8. The Zambezi River Basin Economic development 8 > 6% annual economic growth Annual GDP: $100bn annual GDP GDP/capita: $122 (Zimbabwe) to $7,000 (Botswana) Persistent poverty, but dual economies: Some new investments possible in large infrastructure, and Many relying on subsistence livelihoods based on environmental services Some important World Heritage and Ramsar sites Significant reliance on nature-based tourism Climatic variability est. GDP loss ~1%
  9. 9. Challenges9
  10. 10. Challenges Socio-economic 10 Lack of significant investments in infrastructure in the past 30 years Limited coordinated development: Economic inefficiencies Loss of productivity Impaired ability of natural systems to sustain environmental services Increased risks to extreme climate events
  11. 11. Challenges Climate Change Impacts 11 Preliminary assessments: Likely reduced runoff yield Reduced flows of 26-40% Increased irrigation deficits Avg. temperature increases of 1.5C Reduction in firm energy production of 32% But, high levels of uncertainty
  12. 12. Challenges 12 Benefits of cooperation have been recognised but realising them has been elusive No significant investments in water management and development in the basin in the past 30 years!
  13. 13. Opportunities13
  14. 14. Opportunities The time is right for action now!14 Pent-up socio-economic demand in the region Political will is there: Legal and institutional arrangements are now in place Mutual-benefits of cooperation increasingly understood Strong technical and analytical frameworks: as a basis for developing and agreement investments in hydropower, agriculture, environment and transport, etc. > $16bn in infrastructure investments identified Increased cooperation can bring added benefits from existing infrastructure
  15. 15. Enabling legal frameworks for cooperation based on benefit-sharing: 15 Initiatives on-going from the1940s Zambezi River Authority – Zambia/Zimbabwe Kariba Dam - commissioned in 1960 Other regional agreements in the past >30 years: 1995 SADC Protocol – revised/ratified 2003 Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) - 1995 Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM) Negotiations started in 1980s Signed in 2004 Into force in 2011- interim Secretariat in Botswana Permanent Commission in 2014 – Secretariat in Zimbabwe
  16. 16. ZAMCOM Agreement 16 Objective: “To promote the equitable and reasonable utilisation of the water resources of the Zambezi Watercourse as well as the efficient management and sustainable development thereof”
  17. 17. ZAMCOM Governance 17
  18. 18. Long history of cooperative efforts, supported by solid analytical foundations providing a strong data, information and knowledge base Report on the Zambezi River Commission 1995 18 Much Analytical Work Already Done!
  19. 19. Analytical Framework for equitable and reasonable utilisation 19
  20. 20. Transboundary Cooperation Types of benefits 20 (Sadoff and Grey, 2005) Type Opportunity 1. To the river Improved quality, flow regime, biodiversity, sustainability 2. From the river Increased benefits from hydropower, agriculture, flood/drought management, navigation, environmental conservation, recreation, etc. 3. Because of the river Improved regional relations based on cooperation and development for water, food and energy security… e.g. reduced conflicts 4. Beyond the river Regional economic integration of markets and trade
  21. 21. “Balanced” approach Zambezi River basin development 21 SAPP: Southern Africa Power Pool investment plan
  22. 22. Development Opportunities Balanced scenario 22 A balanced approach combining hydropower, irrigation and other investments requires trade-offs between regions/sectors agreed overall benefits maximised Investments totalling about $16.1bn over 15yrs NPV = $110m Return on investment = 10%
  23. 23. 23 Existing and Potential HEPs
  24. 24. 24 Existing and Potential HEPs Zambezi mainstream
  25. 25. Current and Potential Hydropower 25 Coordinated operation of existing dams = 7% increase in firm energy adding $585m over 30 yrs At no added cost! Current Potential Installed HEP generation capacity 5,000 MW half of SAPP HEP 13,000 MW With potential investments of $10.6 bn Increase in average energy production 30,000 GWh/yr 90,000GWh/yr Increase in firm energy production 23,000 GWh/yr 58,000 GWh/yr
  26. 26. Current and Potential Irrigation 26 Current Identified 100 ha 1,000 ha 10,000 ha 100,000 ha
  27. 27. Current and Potential Irrigation 27 Current Potential With potential investments: $2.5 bn Increase average area irrigated from 260,000 ha/yr 775,000 ha/yr New job creation: >500,000 jobs in the agriculture sector
  28. 28. Other opportunities/benefits 28 Disaster Risk Reduction: Hydropower and irrigation interventions will increase resilience with est $1 bn reduced losses to floods, droughts and climate change Navigation: reduced costs and improved opportunities for development through river navigation, and bridges Environmental management: flow management in the delta, improved fisheries and basin-wide e-flows, etc. Fisheries production lake and deltas Water supply for people and industry >1,000m3/yr for Botswana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe Mining potential negative impacts to water quality to be mitigated, and reduced-cost transportation/navigation options to be explored Tourism
  29. 29. 29 Next steps:
  30. 30. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now 30 Clearly demonstrate the added-value of collaboration in river basin management and development Investors are ready and willing The people are waiting ZAMCOM to deliver tangible results in 3 key areas:
  31. 31. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now 31 1. Effective ZAMCOM governance: Institutional arrangements, legal frameworks, political will and financial support – including from member countries everything is in place now need to make it work
  32. 32. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now 32 2. Shared data, information and knowledge platforms Shared data and information system - ZAMWIS Agreed basin-wide decision-support systems for basin development planning, real-time monitoring for flow synchronisation, and flood forecasting and early warning systems
  33. 33. “Operationalise” ZAMCOM now 33 3. Develop and agree the “Zambezi Strategic Plan” A “rolling” strategic planning process Base the plan on broad basin-wide stakeholder consultations A plan which identifies, categorises and prioritises investment projects and programmes for managing and developing the water/related resources of the Basin Investments the 3-“I”s: 1. Information and knowledge, 2. Institutions - arrangements and capacity-building, and 3. Infrastructure Engage the decision-makers Leverage additional benefits and additional investments
  34. 34. Selected References 34 • SADC. 2011. Dam Synchronisation and Flood Releases in the Zambezi River Basin Project. • Sadoff, C.W. and Grey, D. 2005. Cooperation on international rivers: A continuum for securing and sharing benefits. IWRA, International Water, Vol. 30, No. 4. 8 pp. • World Bank. 2010. The Zambezi River Basin: a Multi-Sector Investment Opportunities Analysis. http://water.worldbank.org/node/83707 • SADC-WD/ZRA. 2008. Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin. http://www.zambezicommission.org/downloads/Zambezi%20River%20Basi n%20IWRM%20Strategy%20ZAMSTRAT.pdf
  35. 35. Thank you!35

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