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NVAR’s 14th Annual Economic Summit
September 16, 2010
The Outlook for the
Washington Area Economy
Stephen S. Fuller, PhD
D...
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Washington MSA Leading Economic Index
Month-Over-Year Percent Change
15 Largest Job Markets
Job Change July 09 – July 10
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
(000s)
Washington + 41,800
Sour...
Annual Job Change
Washington MSA
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2002
2004
2006
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May
Jul...
Annual Job Change
Northern Virginia
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002
2004
2006
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan
Mar
May...
Job Change by Sector
Dec 2007 – Dec 2009
Washington MSA
-4
-5
-8
-13
-11
2
-37
-3
-23
-4
13
24
-9
-40 -20 0 20 40
Transp. ...
Job Change by Sector
July 2009 – July 2010
Washington MSA
0
1
-3
-5
-3
3
-5
12
12
-7
4
20
14
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Transp. & ...
Job Change by Sector
July 2009 – July 2010
Northern Virginia
0
-1
-2
-4
-1
3
-7
10
7
-1
7
7
4
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
Transp. &...
Unemployment Rate
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
%
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
U.S.
Washington
9.7
6.3
5.2
Northern Virgin...
15 Largest Job Markets
Ranked by Unemployment Rate
July 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
%
US
9.7
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Ad...
Housing Market Trends
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Existing Home Sales
Wa...
Percent Change in
Inventories of Existing Homes
Month-Over-the-Year-Change
2000 – 2010, MSA
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
...
Total Active Listings Per Sale
August Each Year
0
5
10
15
20
25
LDN
PG
FFXARL
DC
MONT
PW
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regi...
Average Sales Price Percent Change
Washington MSA
All Housing Types
6
11
1414
20
22
2 2 2 2 1 1
0
6
4
0
0
-2
0
-9
-5
-12-1...
Average Sales Price Percent Change
Northern Virginia
All Housing Types
5
10
1414
2223
1 1
-1-1-3
-1
-2
1 2 1
-3
-5-4
-15
-...
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003
2005
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
O...
Housing Sales, Actual and
Forecast to Sept. 2011
Metro Area
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Housing Sales, Actual and
Forecast to Sept. 2011
Northern Virginia
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Economic Forecast
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015
Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
%
DC
SM
MSA
N...
Employment Change by
Sub-state Region (000s)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
D.C. 5.3 10.1 -0.7 6.2 7.2 6.7 7.2 7....
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
%
Source: Global Insight, ...
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  1. 1. NVAR’s 14th Annual Economic Summit September 16, 2010 The Outlook for the Washington Area Economy Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University
  2. 2. -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change
  3. 3. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change July 09 – July 10 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (000s) Washington + 41,800 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  4. 4. Annual Job Change Washington MSA -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2002 2004 2006 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  5. 5. Annual Job Change Northern Virginia -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2004 2006 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  6. 6. Job Change by Sector Dec 2007 – Dec 2009 Washington MSA -4 -5 -8 -13 -11 2 -37 -3 -23 -4 13 24 -9 -40 -20 0 20 40 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total - 79,300 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  7. 7. Job Change by Sector July 2009 – July 2010 Washington MSA 0 1 -3 -5 -3 3 -5 12 12 -7 4 20 14 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 41,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  8. 8. Job Change by Sector July 2009 – July 2010 Northern Virginia 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 3 -7 10 7 -1 7 7 4 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 22,700 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  9. 9. Unemployment Rate 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 % Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted U.S. Washington 9.7 6.3 5.2 Northern Virginia
  10. 10. 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate July 2010 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 % US 9.7 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 6.3
  11. 11. Housing Market Trends
  12. 12. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through August 2010 12-Month Moving Average Northern Virginia
  13. 13. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change 2000 – 2010, MSA -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Aug = - 0.3%
  14. 14. Total Active Listings Per Sale August Each Year 0 5 10 15 20 25 LDN PG FFXARL DC MONT PW Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  15. 15. Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types 6 11 1414 20 22 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 6 4 0 0 -2 0 -9 -5 -12-11 -13-13 -16-17 -23 -18 -23 -25 -24 -26 -20-18 -14 -10 -9 -7 0 -4 3 9 6 6 4 6 5 4 7 5 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010
  16. 16. Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types 5 10 1414 2223 1 1 -1-1-3 -1 -2 1 2 1 -3 -5-4 -15 -12 -18-17 -19-20-22 -25 -32 -28 -29-30 -28-28 -22 -19 -12 -8 -2 -1 9 5 11 15 19 161716 1211 9 9 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010
  17. 17. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2003 2005 Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington Metro, All Housing Types % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Hanley Wood
  18. 18. Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011 Metro Area 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
  19. 19. Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011 Northern Virginia 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
  20. 20. Economic Forecast
  21. 21. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  22. 22. Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 D.C. 5.3 10.1 -0.7 6.2 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.3 Sub. MD 4.8 -1.4 -26.7 9.3 9.7 11.1 13.3 14.7 No. VA 13.2 4.4 -24.5 16.7 20.4 26.5 28.3 29.9 REGION 23.3 12.9 -51.9 32.2 37.3 44.3 48.8 51.9 Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS
  23. 23. -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 Washington U.S.
  24. 24. Policy-cra.gmu.edu

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