Evolution of Mobile Networks - Impact and Possibilities for Future Services

Oxford University CPD
                Future Technology Conference
                          April 2009


                  Evolution of Mobile Networks
                      Impact and Possibilities for Future Services


                                          Martin Sauter


                                                                                                              1
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Who Am I
     Working on wireless projects for a network
 •

     infrastructure vendor
     (Wireless) Network Researcher and Blogger
 •



     Book Author
 •




                                                                                                              2
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Future Services By Whom?
     Internet based companies (Google, Skype,
•

     Yahoo, startups, etc.)
           Their business model: Idea, trial and error, free at
      •

           the beginning, later funded by advertising and
           premium services
     Network Operators
•


           Their business model: Pay for services from day
      •

           one → Interop. and getting a critical mass is difficult
This presentation looks at how Network Operators
      can benefit from the Network Evolution
                                                                                                              3
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Trend 1: Wireless Networks Are
Evolving
    UMTS → HSPA → HSPA+
•



    LTE is at the doorstep, promises even higher speeds
•



    Lots of improvements to achieve higher speeds like
•

    higher order modulation and MIMO.
    Digital Dividend for Broadband Everywhere
•



    The good news: Higher top speeds will help us for
•

    some time to escape bandwidth bottlenecks.
    The bad news: Super high speeds only in selected
•

    places!
                                                                                                              4
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Higher Speeds But Not Everywhere
Ericsson Review article shows maximum speed
depending on location.


    http://tinyurl.com/dk6c2p
    (not included due to copyright reasons but available via this link, see Figure 2)




                                                                                                              5
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Cellular Capacity Today and
Tomorrow
     3G Network Capacity Today: ~30 MBit/s per km²
 •

     (4 UMTS networks, one BTS per operator per km², 3 sectors, single carrier)

     Based on 70 MB of daily data traffic (~2 GB/month) that's
 •

     good for 800 users per km²
     Potential 3G Capacity Tomorrow: ~ 500 MBit/s per km²
 •

     (use of full capacity in 900, 1800, 2100 and 2600 Mhz with HSPA and LTE)


     → But: Who can predict how many people will use the
     system in the future and how traffic develops?
           * If you are interested in the details for the numbers, please contact me via http://www.wirelessmoves.com

                                                                                                                  6
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Trend 2: Fixed Line Advances
    ADSL speeds are increasing
•



    ADSL2+ available in many
•

    locations
    VDSL now being deployed:
•

    But: Expensive!
    Fiber to the Home
•

    → Almost infinite capacity and                                                                            A VDSL cabinet


      reachability.
      But: Even more expensive!
    And on top: It's fixed line but most people don't use it with
    a cable → Wi-Fi is also wireless!

                                                                                                                               7
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Trend 3: Fixed – Wireless
Reintegration
     Wireless Operators are buying fixed line assets
 •

     again.
     With the Internet, operators have finally
 •

     understood that it makes no sense anymore to
     offer fixed and mobile services separately as
     most users want both! → Usability break!
     Complete reversal over earlier trend!
 •




                                                                                                              8
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Trend 4: Femtocells - Making use
    of Fixed Line Assets
       Femtos will be integrated
•

       into a single DSL-modem /
       Wi-Fi / Picocell package.
       The first obvious use: It's
•

       good for offloading a
       significant amount of traffic
       from the macro network.
                                                                                                           Image: ip.access




                                                                                                                              9
    Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Putting all 4 Trends together leads
to: Connected Home Services
     „Mobile“ devices (phones, smartphones, mp3
 •


     players, cameras) interact with the „fixed“ devices in
     the home network (PC, Network Attached Storage
     containing pictures, videos, and other private
     information)
     Access to „fixed devices“ and data stored on them
 •

     also while being outside the home network via the
     cellular network over an encrypted link.


                                                                                                              10
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Connected Home Services
Femtos vs. Wi-Fi
     Femtos great for network operators
 •



     Wi-Fi great for Internet companies
 •



     Who will win?
 •



     Maybe both should win?
 •



     Peaceful coexistence.
 •



     Always best connected (best as in fastest, cheapest,
 •

     most convenient). Possible with both femtos and
     Wi-Fi. → Intelligent Software
                                                                                                              11
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Trend 5: Cloud Computing
     What is it, who likes it and why? → Computing resources
 •

     in the network and storing data (calendar, address book,
     files, etc.) somewhere in the Internet.
     Many interesting possibilities, BUT: storing private data
 •

     on the Internet is not to everyone's liking → inherent
     privacy and security issues, wanted and unwanted.


→ Connected Home Networks offer an alternative
  to storage in the cloud to protect data and privacy!

                                                                                                              12
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Summary
     Trend 1: Wireless Network Evolution
•



     Trend 2: Fixed Network Evolution
•



     Trend 3: Fixed - Wireless Re-Integration
•



     Trend 4: Femtos + Wi-Fi
•



→ These trends pave the way for Connected Home Services
     Trend 5: Cloud Computing
•



     Anti-Trend 5: From the Cloud to the Home
•



→ Great possibilities for network operators in the future!

                                                                                                                  13
    Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
Thank You!
          For further information and to get in
                   contact please visit
            http://www.wirelessmoves.com




                                                                                                              14
Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
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Evolution of Mobile Networks - Impact and Possibilities for Future Services

  • 1. Oxford University CPD Future Technology Conference April 2009 Evolution of Mobile Networks Impact and Possibilities for Future Services Martin Sauter 1 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 2. Who Am I Working on wireless projects for a network • infrastructure vendor (Wireless) Network Researcher and Blogger • Book Author • 2 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 3. Future Services By Whom? Internet based companies (Google, Skype, • Yahoo, startups, etc.) Their business model: Idea, trial and error, free at • the beginning, later funded by advertising and premium services Network Operators • Their business model: Pay for services from day • one → Interop. and getting a critical mass is difficult This presentation looks at how Network Operators can benefit from the Network Evolution 3 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 4. Trend 1: Wireless Networks Are Evolving UMTS → HSPA → HSPA+ • LTE is at the doorstep, promises even higher speeds • Lots of improvements to achieve higher speeds like • higher order modulation and MIMO. Digital Dividend for Broadband Everywhere • The good news: Higher top speeds will help us for • some time to escape bandwidth bottlenecks. The bad news: Super high speeds only in selected • places! 4 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 5. Higher Speeds But Not Everywhere Ericsson Review article shows maximum speed depending on location. http://tinyurl.com/dk6c2p (not included due to copyright reasons but available via this link, see Figure 2) 5 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 6. Cellular Capacity Today and Tomorrow 3G Network Capacity Today: ~30 MBit/s per km² • (4 UMTS networks, one BTS per operator per km², 3 sectors, single carrier) Based on 70 MB of daily data traffic (~2 GB/month) that's • good for 800 users per km² Potential 3G Capacity Tomorrow: ~ 500 MBit/s per km² • (use of full capacity in 900, 1800, 2100 and 2600 Mhz with HSPA and LTE) → But: Who can predict how many people will use the system in the future and how traffic develops? * If you are interested in the details for the numbers, please contact me via http://www.wirelessmoves.com 6 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 7. Trend 2: Fixed Line Advances ADSL speeds are increasing • ADSL2+ available in many • locations VDSL now being deployed: • But: Expensive! Fiber to the Home • → Almost infinite capacity and A VDSL cabinet reachability. But: Even more expensive! And on top: It's fixed line but most people don't use it with a cable → Wi-Fi is also wireless! 7 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 8. Trend 3: Fixed – Wireless Reintegration Wireless Operators are buying fixed line assets • again. With the Internet, operators have finally • understood that it makes no sense anymore to offer fixed and mobile services separately as most users want both! → Usability break! Complete reversal over earlier trend! • 8 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 9. Trend 4: Femtocells - Making use of Fixed Line Assets Femtos will be integrated • into a single DSL-modem / Wi-Fi / Picocell package. The first obvious use: It's • good for offloading a significant amount of traffic from the macro network. Image: ip.access 9 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 10. Putting all 4 Trends together leads to: Connected Home Services „Mobile“ devices (phones, smartphones, mp3 • players, cameras) interact with the „fixed“ devices in the home network (PC, Network Attached Storage containing pictures, videos, and other private information) Access to „fixed devices“ and data stored on them • also while being outside the home network via the cellular network over an encrypted link. 10 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 11. Connected Home Services Femtos vs. Wi-Fi Femtos great for network operators • Wi-Fi great for Internet companies • Who will win? • Maybe both should win? • Peaceful coexistence. • Always best connected (best as in fastest, cheapest, • most convenient). Possible with both femtos and Wi-Fi. → Intelligent Software 11 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 12. Trend 5: Cloud Computing What is it, who likes it and why? → Computing resources • in the network and storing data (calendar, address book, files, etc.) somewhere in the Internet. Many interesting possibilities, BUT: storing private data • on the Internet is not to everyone's liking → inherent privacy and security issues, wanted and unwanted. → Connected Home Networks offer an alternative to storage in the cloud to protect data and privacy! 12 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 13. Summary Trend 1: Wireless Network Evolution • Trend 2: Fixed Network Evolution • Trend 3: Fixed - Wireless Re-Integration • Trend 4: Femtos + Wi-Fi • → These trends pave the way for Connected Home Services Trend 5: Cloud Computing • Anti-Trend 5: From the Cloud to the Home • → Great possibilities for network operators in the future! 13 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009
  • 14. Thank You! For further information and to get in contact please visit http://www.wirelessmoves.com 14 Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009