1. Oxford University CPD
Future Technology Conference
April 2009
Evolution of Mobile Networks
Impact and Possibilities for Future Services
Martin Sauter
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

2. Who Am I
Working on wireless projects for a network
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infrastructure vendor
(Wireless) Network Researcher and Blogger
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Book Author
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

3. Future Services By Whom?
Internet based companies (Google, Skype,
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Yahoo, startups, etc.)
Their business model: Idea, trial and error, free at
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the beginning, later funded by advertising and
premium services
Network Operators
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Their business model: Pay for services from day
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one → Interop. and getting a critical mass is difficult
This presentation looks at how Network Operators
can benefit from the Network Evolution
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

4. Trend 1: Wireless Networks Are
Evolving
UMTS → HSPA → HSPA+
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LTE is at the doorstep, promises even higher speeds
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Lots of improvements to achieve higher speeds like
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higher order modulation and MIMO.
Digital Dividend for Broadband Everywhere
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The good news: Higher top speeds will help us for
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some time to escape bandwidth bottlenecks.
The bad news: Super high speeds only in selected
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places!
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

5. Higher Speeds But Not Everywhere
Ericsson Review article shows maximum speed
depending on location.
http://tinyurl.com/dk6c2p
(not included due to copyright reasons but available via this link, see Figure 2)
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

6. Cellular Capacity Today and
Tomorrow
3G Network Capacity Today: ~30 MBit/s per km²
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(4 UMTS networks, one BTS per operator per km², 3 sectors, single carrier)
Based on 70 MB of daily data traffic (~2 GB/month) that's
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good for 800 users per km²
Potential 3G Capacity Tomorrow: ~ 500 MBit/s per km²
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(use of full capacity in 900, 1800, 2100 and 2600 Mhz with HSPA and LTE)
→ But: Who can predict how many people will use the
system in the future and how traffic develops?
* If you are interested in the details for the numbers, please contact me via http://www.wirelessmoves.com
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

7. Trend 2: Fixed Line Advances
ADSL speeds are increasing
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ADSL2+ available in many
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locations
VDSL now being deployed:
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But: Expensive!
Fiber to the Home
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→ Almost infinite capacity and A VDSL cabinet
reachability.
But: Even more expensive!
And on top: It's fixed line but most people don't use it with
a cable → Wi-Fi is also wireless!
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

8. Trend 3: Fixed – Wireless
Reintegration
Wireless Operators are buying fixed line assets
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again.
With the Internet, operators have finally
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understood that it makes no sense anymore to
offer fixed and mobile services separately as
most users want both! → Usability break!
Complete reversal over earlier trend!
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

9. Trend 4: Femtocells - Making use
of Fixed Line Assets
Femtos will be integrated
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into a single DSL-modem /
Wi-Fi / Picocell package.
The first obvious use: It's
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good for offloading a
significant amount of traffic
from the macro network.
Image: ip.access
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

10. Putting all 4 Trends together leads
to: Connected Home Services
„Mobile“ devices (phones, smartphones, mp3
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players, cameras) interact with the „fixed“ devices in
the home network (PC, Network Attached Storage
containing pictures, videos, and other private
information)
Access to „fixed devices“ and data stored on them
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also while being outside the home network via the
cellular network over an encrypted link.
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

11. Connected Home Services
Femtos vs. Wi-Fi
Femtos great for network operators
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Wi-Fi great for Internet companies
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Who will win?
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Maybe both should win?
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Peaceful coexistence.
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Always best connected (best as in fastest, cheapest,
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most convenient). Possible with both femtos and
Wi-Fi. → Intelligent Software
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

12. Trend 5: Cloud Computing
What is it, who likes it and why? → Computing resources
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in the network and storing data (calendar, address book,
files, etc.) somewhere in the Internet.
Many interesting possibilities, BUT: storing private data
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on the Internet is not to everyone's liking → inherent
privacy and security issues, wanted and unwanted.
→ Connected Home Networks offer an alternative
to storage in the cloud to protect data and privacy!
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

13. Summary
Trend 1: Wireless Network Evolution
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Trend 2: Fixed Network Evolution
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Trend 3: Fixed - Wireless Re-Integration
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Trend 4: Femtos + Wi-Fi
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→ These trends pave the way for Connected Home Services
Trend 5: Cloud Computing
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Anti-Trend 5: From the Cloud to the Home
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→ Great possibilities for network operators in the future!
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009

14. Thank You!
For further information and to get in
contact please visit
http://www.wirelessmoves.com
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Martin Sauter - www.wirelessmoves.com - Future Technologies Conference - Oxford University CPD - April 2009