1. Status und Ausblick
Wie wird sich KI technisch weiterentwickeln?
Willi Schroll , strategiclabs Berlin
Europa Ins:tut Universität Zürich – 21. digital lecture – 27. August 2018
1
Willi Schroll, strategiclabs Berlin
Fachkonferenz Münchner Kreis: Künstliche Intelligenz und die Automa:on des Entscheidens
9. Oktober 2019 – München

2. Foresight – Strategische Zukun3sforschung
Convergence of
technologies
Digital Culture
Learning from
nature
Ubiquitous
intelligence
New patterns of
consumption
Globalisation 2.0
Knowledge-
based economy
Business
ecosystems
Radical changes
to energy and
resources
Climate change
& environmental
pollution
Urbanisation
A new political
world order
Global risk society
New patterns of
mobility
Transformation of
healthcare systems
Changing gender
roles
New level of
individualisation
Social and cultural
disparities
Demographic change
Endangered
biodiversity &
ecosystems
Cultural
convergence &
divergence
Internet of
Everything
Nanotech &
Biotech
Changes to work
& management
STEEP Dimensionen
Monitoring ▻ Daten ▻ Trendanalysen ▻ Szenarien ▻ strategische Implika:onen
SOCIETY TECHNOLOGY ECOLOGY ECONOMY POLITICS
Bildrechte/Quelle: mapegy.com, Boston Dynamics2

3. KI-Systema:k: Techniken, Funk:onen, Anwendung, Treiber
3
Bio-inspired approaches
Classifica:on and regression trees
Deep learning
Expert system
Fuzzy logic
Instance-based learning
Latent representa:on
Logic programming
Machine learning
Mul:-task learning
Neural network
Ontology engineering
Probabilis:c graphical models
Probabilis:c reasoning
Reinforcement learning
Rule learning
Supervised learning
Support vector machine
Unsupervised learning
AItechniques
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Quellen: hdps://www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/tech_trends/en/ar:ficial_intelligence/docs/techtrends_ai_glossary.pdf

4. KI-Systema:k: Techniken, Funk:onen, Anwendung, Treiber
4
Bio-inspired approaches
Classifica:on and regression trees
Deep learning
Expert system
Fuzzy logic
Instance-based learning
Latent representa:on
Logic programming
Machine learning
Mul:-task learning
Neural network
Ontology engineering
Probabilis:c graphical models
Probabilis:c reasoning
Reinforcement learning
Rule learning
Supervised learning
Support vector machine
Unsupervised learning
Augmented reality
Biometrics
Character recogni:on
Computer vision
Distributed AI
Image and video segmenta:on
Informa:on extrac:on
Knowledge representa:on & reasoning
Natural language processing
Object tracking
Planning/scheduling
Predic:ve analy:cs
Robo:cs Scene understanding
Seman:cs
Sen:ment analysis
Speech processing
Speech recogni:on
Speaker recogni:on
Speech-to-speech applica:on
AItechniques
AIfunc:onalapplica:ons
enabling enabling
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Quellen: hdps://www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/tech_trends/en/ar:ficial_intelligence/docs/techtrends_ai_glossary.pdf

5. KI-Systema:k: Techniken, Funk:onen, Anwendung, Treiber
5
Banking and finance
Business
Document management & publishing
Educa:on
Entertainment/Gaming
Healthcare
Home/Service Robots
Industry and manufacturing
Life and medical sciences
Public Safety
Security/Cybersecurity
Telecommunica:ons
Transporta:on/Logis:cs
Bio-inspired approaches
Classifica:on and regression trees
Deep learning
Expert system
Fuzzy logic
Instance-based learning
Latent representa:on
Logic programming
Machine learning
Mul:-task learning
Neural network
Ontology engineering
Probabilis:c graphical models
Probabilis:c reasoning
Reinforcement learning
Rule learning
Supervised learning
Support vector machine
Unsupervised learning
Augmented reality
Biometrics
Character recogni:on
Computer vision
Distributed AI
Image and video segmenta:on
Informa:on extrac:on
Knowledge representa:on & reasoning
Natural language processing
Object tracking
Planning/scheduling
Predic:ve analy:cs
Robo:cs Scene understanding
Seman:cs
Sen:ment analysis
Speech processing
Speech recogni:on
Speaker recogni:on
Speech-to-speech applica:on
AItechniques
AIfunc:onalapplica:ons
AIapplica:onfields
enabling enabling enabling
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Quellen: hdps://www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/tech_trends/en/ar:ficial_intelligence/docs/techtrends_ai_glossary.pdf - ergänzend für Spalte 3:
hdps://ai100.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj9861/f/ai100report10032016fnl_singles.pdf (2016)

6. KI-Systema:k: Techniken, Funk:onen, Anwendung, Treiber
Quellen: hdps://www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/tech_trends/en/ar:ficial_intelligence/docs/techtrends_ai_glossary.pdf - ergänzend für Spalte 3:
hdps://ai100.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj9861/f/ai100report10032016fnl_singles.pdf
6
Banking and finance
Business
Document management & publishing
Educa:on
Entertainment/Gaming
Healthcare
Home/Service Robots
Industry and manufacturing
Life and medical sciences
Public Safety
Security/Cybersecurity
Telecommunica:ons
Transporta:on/Logis:cs
Smart City
Smart Gov/Admin
Smart Health
Smart Home
Smart Learning & Educa:on
Smart Mobility/MaaS
Smart Produc:on/Industrie 4.0
Smart Work
Smart X …
…
Expected Values
Context adap:on
Personalsa:on
Predic:on
Process Op:miza:on
Targe:ng
…
Bio-inspired approaches
Classifica:on and regression trees
Deep learning
Expert system
Fuzzy logic
Instance-based learning
Latent representa:on
Logic programming
Machine learning
Mul:-task learning
Neural network
Ontology engineering
Probabilis:c graphical models
Probabilis:c reasoning
Reinforcement learning
Rule learning
Supervised learning
Support vector machine
Unsupervised learning
Augmented reality
Biometrics
Character recogni:on
Computer vision
Distributed AI
Image and video segmenta:on
Informa:on extrac:on
Knowledge representa:on & reasoning
Natural language processing
Object tracking
Planning/scheduling
Predic:ve analy:cs
Robo:cs Scene understanding
Seman:cs
Sen:ment analysis
Speech processing
Speech recogni:on
Speaker recogni:on
Speech-to-speech applica:on
AItechniques
AIfunc:onalapplica:ons
AIapplica:onfields
AIintegra:on/guidingvisions
enabling enabling enabling
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

7. 5-Stufen-Modell der Automa:on des Entscheidens
Assistenz, Delega=on, Autonomisierung (Bitkom)
1. Assis:ertes Entscheiden
2. Teilweises Entscheiden
3. Geprüoes Entscheiden
4. Delegiertes Entscheiden
5. Autonomes Entscheiden
7
AI-Matrix nach PWC und Autonomiegrade (Grafik modifiziert)
Bildrechte/Quelle:
hdps://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/analy:cs/assets/pwc-ai-analysis-
sizing-the-prize-report.pd (2017)
Quelle: hdps://www.bitkom.org/sites/default/files/file/import/Bitkom-
Leipaden-KI-verstehen-als-Automa:on-des-Entscheidens-2-Mai-2017.pdf
(2017)

8. Phasenmodell der KI
Übergreifende Trends
• Relevanz von Trainingsdaten
• Umgebungsdimensionen (mehr Sensoren, Datendurchsatz)
• Mensch-Maschinen-Interak:on
• Spezialisierung, enge Nischen
• Autonomisierung
Bildrechte/Quelle: hdps://www.bitkom.org/sites/default/files/file/import/171012-KI-Gipfelpapier-online.pdf (2017), Phasen nach Wahlster (2016)
8
Prozessuale Grundstruktur

9. KI im Kontext der Innova:onsfelder der digitalen Transforma:on
Bildrechte: Willi Schroll 2018
9
KI im betrieblichen Einsatz. Bildrechte/Quelle:
hdp://cdn.aiindex.org/2018/AI%20Index%202018%20Annua
l%20Report.pdf McKinsey „Capabili:es embedded in at
least one company func:on (2018)“

10. Research Trends & Challenges
Sustaining AI Research Trends
Large-scale machine learning
Deep learning
Reinforcement learning
Robo:cs
Computer vision
Natural Language Processing
Collabora:ve systems
Crowdsourcing and human computa:on
Algorithmic game theory and
computa:onal social choice
Internet of Things (IoT)
Neuromorphic Compu:ng
Research Trends: Quelle hdps://ai100.stanford.edu/sites/g/files/sbiybj9861/f/ai100report10032016fnl_singles.pdf
10
AI Challenges
Data quality, bias in data
Design complexity
Ethical by design vs pluralism
of society
Ethical implica:ons
Fragmenta:on &
specialisa:on
General theory of cogni:ve
process missing
Integra:on of techniques
…
Poli=cs & Society Challenges
AI-enabled deep fakes (truth crisis)
AI impact on job market
AI impact on educa:on (purpose crisis)
„AI Race“, geopoli:cs of AI; e.g. China
AI in targe:ng + persuasion (asymmetry
of power)
AI solu:ons for global ecological crisis?
…
…

11. Watchlist
PAI: hyper-personalized AI
Vsd. Ansätze sind kombinierbar: personalisierter digitaler
Assistent, Digital Twin der Person, Avatar mit Funk:on der
Stellvertretung, Verhandlungsmandat, Analyse der
Verhaltensmuster, instant Coaching, Verhaltenstherapie,
Security/Cybersecurity/Health
XAI: explainable AI, transparency
Wenn AI-Mechanismen nicht nachvollziehbar sind, leidet die
Vertrauenswürdigkeit. Auch die Gesetzgeber stellen neue
Anforderungen. XAI soll die Transparenz herstellen.
QAI: quantum compu=ng based AI
Bes:mmte Berechnungsprobleme in der KI könnten mit
Quanten Compu:ng gelöst werden. Google-Teams forschen
z. B. an Quantum Neural Networks.
Bildrechte/Quelle: hdps://projectpai.com/ - hdps://www.accenture.com/_acnmedia/pdf-85/accenture-understanding-machines-explainable-ai.pdf -
hdps://phys.org/news/2018-02-quantum-algorithm-ai-faster.html - hdps://ai.google/research/teams/applied-science/quantum/
11

12. Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!
Willi Schroll , strategiclabs Berlin
Europa Ins:tut Universität Zürich – 21. digital lecture – 27. August 2018
12
Willi Schroll, strategiclabs Berlin
schroll@strategiclabs.de