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Summary of slides for the BASAAR project

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  1. 1. Four futures: CBSR2050 1 Learning together (BASAAR) Interreg IVA Project 2009-2010 Asia as a key driver of global change economy – environment – migration – investments – future – partnership – values – dialog - sustainability Lead partner Uusimaa Regional Council, Helsinki Region, Finland 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  2. 2. BASAAR: Learning together 2 benchmarks – feedback – foresight – action proposals Comments from Open Days Benchmark 7-9/2010 Asia in CBSR Experts in Asia 2009 and CBSR 5-8/2010 Monitoring Progress Feedback CBSR coop Students, immigrants 10/2010 Cases: STX, Hamburg Recommendations 2009-2010 1. Asia CBSR 2. CBSR cooperation Final Conference 3. Local actions 1 Day: Expert Seminar Scenarios ½ Day: High level • Global context 5-9/2010 • Local impacts 25-26.11.2010 2-4/2010 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  3. 3. 3 The old brand: Welfare, creativity , innovation ... A few lessons learned Four Futures: CBSR2050 Adapting to a new geography New threats and opportunities Building the new brand: Dialog about sustainability A European Project 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  4. 4. 4 The old brand was doing well Nordic Counties  Welfare, security ... Stockholm Capital of Scandinavia ... Finland Innovation and creativity ... Baltic States Open economies ... But, new views at the horizon ... Quand la Chine s'éveillera ... le monde tremblera When China awakes ... the world will tremble Napoleon Alain Peyrefitte 1975 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  5. 5. 5 CASE STUDIES What can we learn from recent projects?  Baltic Pearl, St Petersburg, Russia  Wholesale Commodity Market, Kalmar, Sweden  Nordic China Centre, Kouvola, Finland  STX Shipyard, Turku, Finland  City Transport System, Uppsala, Sweden 27/08/2010
  6. 6. 6 BALTIC PEARL St Petersburg Global quality standards 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  7. 7. Wholesale Commodity market 7 Kalmar, Sweden Excellent location in Northern Europe: close to Berlin, London and St Petersburg High quality of life for Chinese entrepreneurs working in Kalmar 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  8. 8. Nordic China Centre 8 Kouvola, Finland Idea: Fastest rout to EU Initially: • Issues with product quality • Immigration permits Now: • Electric cars ... 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  9. 9. The largest luxury Cruisers 9 Turku, Finland Ultimate know-how Cutting edge Small global market Large local subcontactor network 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  10. 10. City Transportation System Uppsala, Sweden The Korean interest: build a test track in Europe find a place with winter conditions find a place with good flight contacts to South Korea find a City with a good Jan-Henrik Johansson climate for innovations
  11. 11. City Transportation System Jan-Henrik Johansson Uppsala, Sweden
  12. 12. Large scale Develoment Projects 12 Some lessons learned  Asian investors often lack experience of entering mature markets.  Equally, the Nordic municipality is seldom ready to meet the cultural challenges involved.  To succeed, large-scale community development projects with Asian partners need local participation from business community and public sector. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  13. 13. REFLEXIONS FROM 2050 13 Bringin the pieces together  The Caleidoscope  “Politics is the art of the possible”, Otto Von Bismarck  Two Comments from the BASAAR Web 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  14. 14. SOME BASIC FACTS 14 to start with, in case you forgot 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  15. 15. 15 Knowledge Society Frugal innovation Will it change the rules of competition for competence? Which are the generic resources of Northern Europe? 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  16. 16. 16 Ageing Ushi Okushima become 108 in 2010 In a few years over 50% of the population of Japan will be over 50 “The longevity revolution affects every country, every community and almost every household. It promises to restructure the economy, reshape the family, redefine politics and even rearrange the geopolitical order over the coming century.” Fred Parce, 2010 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  17. 17. 17 Searching for a partner The demographic structure in Asia erodes cohesion and is building a major cause for social unrest. But, the Muslim world is young … 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  18. 18. 18 Pollution hits China's farmland BBC NEWS 23 April 2007 More than 10% of China's farm land is polluted, posing a "severe threat" to the nation's food production, state media reports. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  19. 19. 19 Free Trade Zones Triggered growth in China Now the Chinese development model moves west with money earned at home. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  20. 20. At the World Exhibition in Shanghai 20 The Moomin-family in front of a dilemma Censorship authorities: You must make a clear distinction between good and evil. ... The Boogeyman is disarming in his own way and can be understood. In China, the individual is subjected to the community. The Moomins are the central But the individualistic Moomin dad characters in a series of children's leaves to find himself and the books by the illustrator and writer Tove Jansson from Finland meaning of life on a lonely island. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  21. 21. GLOBAL RESEARCH REPORT - CHINA 21 Research and collaboration in the new geography of science China’s research output has increased dramatically since 1999 while most nations remained fairly stable. During the same period the USA increased its output from 265,000 to 340,000 publications per year, an increase of around 30% compared to China’s more than four- fold growth. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  22. 22. 22 Political anesthesia 2005 Can political group mind and decision making processes really be completely and fatally ineffective? … New direction 2009 Our societies are adequately equipped to withstand the risks and dangers that come from all vagaries of climate, whatever their cause may be. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  23. 23. 23 Early Warning 1972 The Club of Rome’s Report created an extensive global debate which still goes on but it was unsuccesful in creating a system for global governance. Final Warning 2009 To survive mankind needs nuclear energy and agressive agricultural development on areas that remain arable. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  24. 24. 24 Visit the site and add your point of view  Reports  Scenarios and drivers of change  Public debate  Action proposals 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  25. 25. “Don't worry about the environment and 25 the resource issues” “Human beings have developed new technologies to address issues of resources and environmental bottlenecks in the global development. Countries and regions that are open, and integrated into the globalization process, need not worry about slower economic growth and their welfare to decrease, unless they themselves select self-isolation. Environmental damage is the result of wars and irrational behaviour of human beings, not the result of business competition. In the foreseeable future, as long as nation-states exist and the global political system is not unified, global competition for resources is inevitable, unless private ownership is eliminated. Taking developed countries as a proof, the environment will become increasingly better when the countries economy and society develop to a certain level. Solving this issue depends on whether developed countries are willing to share the know-how of new technologies and if one can improve current ways of production and wasteful lifestyles. .” 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  26. 26. “CBSR has many advantages and the key is 26 to take action to push the cooperation, but not to accuse anybody” “Stop blaming China and other Asian countries for the problems of resources, environment, climate changes and food security issues. [Asian countries] have very little to do with these problems, which are the consequences of the Western developed economies. Western countries, in the past and in the present, have applied uneconomical production methods and excessively wastefully consumed the resources. That is the cause of the serious environmental problems of today. Furthermore, Western multinational companies continue to conduct those uneconomical and polluting ways of production in China and they import a lot of resources for production, and that causes serious damage to China's environment. China is a victim of its polluted environment and climate change. Most of the products are produced by Western transnational corporations and exported to Western countries. The pollution of the production remains in China, so the westerners enjoyed and kept their own environment clean. This is unfair. So, stop blaming. Let’s sit down to discuss how to solve the problems.” 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  27. 27. 27 CENTAL BALTIC SEA REGION 2050 Getting ready the regional plans ready  Key Questions  Scenarios  Agenda for taking control 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  28. 28. 28 Two Key Questions ... Global Competition for Resources:  How well will the international community succeed in making development in Asia possible without degrading the environment and making life on earth unsustainable? Economy of the CBSR:  How well will the relatively small economy and limited resources of the CBSR be integrated into global markets and competitive business activities? 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  29. 29. Four Futures: Central Baltic Sea 2050 29 Integration with World Economy Economy of CBSR Scenario 4 Scenario 1 Married Partners for to Asia Sustainability Depletion of resources and Global governance of unmanaged Global competition for resources physical, natural and pollution human resources Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Disorganised Slow Life, Society New Life Isolation from World Economy 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  30. 30. SCENARIO 1: Partners for Sustainability 30 Resources: International agreements regulate growth Integration: CBSR is a global business partner  Growth is supported by international agreements regulating environmental protection, pollution, and resource utilisation  Human capital in CBSR is a competitive resource and the region is an active part of the global economy and the related business networks.  The region is providing green technology and innovative products and services.  Moderate immigration and economic strength ensure that the public sector in the CBSR can provide good services.  CBSR regions compete jointly and and individually for a global role. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  31. 31. SCENARIO 2: Slow Life, New Life 31 Resources: International agreements regulate growth Integration: CBSR is an isolated periphery  Sustainability is achieved through global and legal agreements on resource utilization and conservation.  Asia forms business partnerships with Australia, Africa and South America, and is self-sufficient in science and technology.  Isolation and slow/no economic growth creates need to rethink values of life and recreates the Baltic identity.  Focus on new niche economies, green and appropriate technology. Ecotourism is a growing business.  Exodus of knowledge workers is a bigger problem than immigration.  Weakening public services are partly complemented by education and health care services provided by private sector. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  32. 32. SCENARIO 4: Married to Asia 32 Resources: Unregulated competition for natural and human resources Integration: CBSR is a global business partner  Public and private Asian actors dominate international business.  Asian multinationals are present in the CBSR through subsidiaries and Baltic companies find opportunities as subcontractors for Asian MNCs.  Asians provide global education and heath care services globally.  Russian, Asian and Baltic actors cooperate to mitigate climate change.  CBSR R&D and knowledge workers are in global demand.  Strong global market for food, health services, skills and education.  Immigration and widening income distribution create social tension.  Competition for Asian business weakens regional cooperation. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  33. 33. SCENARIO 3: Disorganized Society 33 Resources: Unregulated competition for natural and human resources Integration: CBSR is an isolated periphery  Unregulated global competition is dominated by multinationals.  Protectionism in Asia and USA limits global trade and increases political tension.  Lack of resources leads to fragmented urban and rural communities.  The global food crises becomes critical. The food industry becomes a leading export sector for CBSR.  Biotech is the focus of innovation and R&D.  Growing inequality in Asia and in the develop world creates resentment and tension among population groups.  Environmental immigration and exodus of knowledge workers in the CBSR. Immigration restrictions are in force for unskilled workers. 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  34. 34. Partner Network 34 Objective: Monitoring and preparing for global impact 1. Exchange of planning information • Annual review meetings / global trends and major projects 2. Joint foresight and impact assessment • Local Impact assessments by country/region 3. New Indicators EU: “GDP and beyond, Measuring progress in a changing world” • Baltic Sea Strategy, EU2020 • Sustainability and welfare • Immigration, services • Energy, environment and climate change 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  35. 35. New Indicators: GDP and beyond 35 Measuring progress in a changing world COM(2009) 433 final 1. New Indicators for Regional Development 2. Sustainability dialog with our Asian partners Topics: EU2020 - Sustainability and welfare - Immigration, services - Energy, environment - Sustainable Development vs Harmonious Development Indicators: Ecological footprint, Full cost accounting (FCA), Green gross domestic product (Green GDP), Gross domestic product (GDP), Happy Planet Index (HPI), Human Development Index (HDI), ISEW (Index of sustainable economic welfare), Living planet index, Quality-of-life index, Gini_Coefficient Project:  Network: Visit Best Practise sites  Inventory: A preliminary list of measures  Visualization: New tools for communication  Exhibition: Quality of life on display 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  36. 36. 36 Monitoring and prioritizing trends HIGH ASSESS IMPACT PREPARE ACTION 1. Food security 1. Academic networks 2. Services for knowledge workers 2. Culture and language 3. Asian FDI in CBSR 3. Presence in Asia CERTAINTY 4. Brain drain 4. EU Cooperation regarding Asia ASSESS RELEVANCE MONITOR CHANGE 1 ....... 1. Immigration 2. CBSR Economy 3. Energy supply and demand 4. Adaptation measures LOW LOW IMPACT HIGH 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  37. 37. 37 CBSR, towards a new global brand Small is Smart and a Global Partner Energy conservation, environmental protection Health, services and welfare innovations Research, science and creativity networks The global business partner, ready and present New global order: Sustainability Dialog 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson
  38. 38. … as time goes by … 38 Waves of Political Focus • Scenarios coexist and blend into each other • Different regions experience the stages differently and at different times Married to Asia Slow Life, New Life Partners for Sustainability Disconnected Communities 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Age 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 20 40 60 80 27/08/2010 Jan-Henrik Johansson