All the data presented in this is posted online as a PDF. I don’t think you get to be credible talking about the future without first sharing a good take on the trajectory of the present.15 years – ubiquitous.
Ubiquitous and unstructure….many of its business forms and use cases are still coming in to focus.
I help companies find the must-win battles that will change their businesses online, and then configure to get their first.
Behavior is driven by appitite.Supply and demand can change appitite
IN BOX - Thisis why CMP is dying.
Do You Need to Discover More Relationships?Do You Want Technology to Help You Get Stuff Done
The New promise
Experience and Attention. (trans. Technology Changes…)
“Relationship pipe” to owners.Improve ownership experience.Streamline service orders.More active two way communication.See how manuals are really used.Sell position to related services.Potential future interactions with auto telemetry.
Introduction of systems allows two way communication,
Not just smart phones….mobile is huge.
I’ll suggest the over lap of employed people and mobile phone owners correspond closely.Considering some of those without phones are babies, or live in the 10% of the world not covered by signal, this is impressive!
SMS Tripled in Four Years (1.8T to 6.1T)That’s 200,000 sent / second. Or at an average cost of .07/ $14,000 per second.China’s largest telecomebooks SMS as 12% of their revenue. CTR ranges from 5% - 25%. Calvin Kline is an example.
This is the first time in thirty years that a non-wintel product has eroded PC market size. Pandora – 40% of traffic goes to mobile only users.
Cisco Predicts: Mobile Only Internet to globally from 13M in ‘10 to 788M in ‘15.North America: 2M to 55M.Asia Pacific: 2M to 420M
In 2006 17% of pages in Japan were served on mobile device, today that’s 84%, and only 16% are desktop. – If you care about mobile, this chart is profound. Apple changed the game with iPod, offering a vertically integrated solution which married hardware, software and content into one seamless ecosystem. Apple's iPod caused a major disruption in the marketplace. iPhone and iPad are driving a larger trend, but I’ll share specific data on these devices later in the presentation.
This would put it on footing with GE’s current sales level. GE is 157M rev today.
Recall Your Purchase History / Make Lists.Submit order for drive through pick up.Map item locations.Provide offers targeted to current intent.Pay via Near Field Communication.One in 5 star bucks purchases are via Starbucks card. 1/3 of its customers use smart phones.Starbucks mobile payment is via a card token.Provides client level purchase preference data
Convenience, Connection and Consumption.
CITA – wireless assoc. MOU to be passed by texts.Nielsen: teens 21x more text messages. (leads all demos under 50).Over ¼ use mobile for social.
Behavior is driven by appitite.
I frequently see enterprise apps in the 50k – 100k range.
Figure out the Why for your business. (Why this helps make money.)The look at the Who, audience research will define the how.The launch plan is critical.
Unprecedented leadership. Integrate – DIGITAL BUSINESS
Capability | Creative | Commerce
Talk About Reuters.
Of course, that means YOU!
Web. 3.0:The Rise of the Mobile and Application Era
Web. 3.0:The Rise of the Mobile and Application Era<br />Dave Wieneke@usefularts<br />
In an Attention Economy<br />2<br />“<br />”<br />Freedom is Conceptual Space.<br />
Dave Wienekehttp://www.usefularts.us@usefularts<br />Published Tech Magazines, Ran start-ups & two .govs<br />Christian Science Monitor<br />Thomson Reuters IP Legal<br />Sokolove Law<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
Today’s Flight Plan<br />Next Web in a Nutshell<br />Drivers: Delivery, Design and Data<br />Change to Business<br />Marketing’s Ascent<br />http://www.foreflight.com<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
9<br />“<br />Revolution is measured in behavior.<br />”<br />
What We Need Has Changed.<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
How About a Scarcity of “Social” Connections?<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
12<br />“<br />Content Was Never King.<br />Helping Your Audience is King.<br />”<br />
Easy Technology to Get Stuff Done<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
End of PC Dominance<br />IDC & Gartner show PC sales eroding (4.8-6.6%) <br />Goldman Sachs predicts tablets will cannibalize one in three US PC sales this year.<br />Smart Phones to Out Ship PC’s in 2012. (Meeker)<br />Smart Phones to out consume PC’s in bandwidth 2013 (Gartner)<br />http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20110112-907810.html<br />http://www.informationweek.com/news/hardware/desktop/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=229000646<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
Audience Desire is Leading Publishers<br />120<br />~120MM+<br />Mobile Internet<br />iPhone + iTouch + iPad<br />Launched 6/07<br />100<br />Desktop Internet<br />Netscape*<br />Launched 12/94<br />80<br />Subscribers (MM)<br />60<br />Mobile Internet<br />NTT docomoi-mode<br />Launched 6/99<br />~32MM<br />40<br />Desktop Internet<br />AOL*<br />v. 2.0 Launched 9/94<br />~27MM<br />20<br />~9MM<br />Q1<br />Q3<br />Q5<br />Q7<br />Q9<br />Q11<br />Q13<br />Q15<br />Q17<br />Q19<br />Quarters Since Launch<br />iPhone + iTouch<br />NTT docomoi-mode<br />AOL<br />Netscape<br />Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94: Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~65MM+ netbooks have shipped in first 11 quarters since launch (10/07). <br />Source: Company Reports, Morgan Stanley Research Data as of CQ3:10<br />Morgan Stanley<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
App Sales Opportunity: $150 Billion by 2014<br />Gartner projects mobile app sales: <br /> 2010: sales topped $5.2bn <br /> 2011: explosion to $15.1bn. It expects total <br /> 2014: Exponential growth to $150bn<br />Stephanie BaghdassarianResearch Director at Gartner<br />= $65Bn annual sales.<br />= $62Bn annual sales.<br />http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=143686<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
Platform Reality: Top 10 Sites Consolidate Traffic<br />100%<br />75%<br />50%<br />25%<br />0%<br />2001<br />2006<br />2010<br />Source: Complete data presented in Wired Aug 2010<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
Platforms are the New Networks (Think Like a Broadcaster)<br />Netflix22% of all prime time fixed line traffic.<br />USC Center for the Digital Future<br />Online TV / Video Consumption to Skyrocketto 50hrs per week.<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
Platforms Trumping Sites<br />41<br />Starbucks FB gets 12x Its Brand Site Traffic<br />
Platforms Will Organize Online Alliances<br />Web 3.0<br />Utilities<identity, payment, analytics, advertising><br />Communications< IM, Voice, Video, Social><br />Centralization<audience & API><br />Customer Loyalty to Platform<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
Voice Splits From the Phone<br />43<br />Integration of calling tosocial channels expands addressable ad inventory.<br />http://adage.com/article/digitalnext/forget-post-pc-post-phone-era/228022/<br />
44<br />The future will not be a faster bigger version of today. <br />
Barrier of Entry Helps Larger Players<br />45<br />
Web App or Native App?<br />HTML5 can provide app-like, non page experiences without platform dependencies.<br />Accessibility, Speed, Cost, Data, Familiar.Native Apps retain some device advantages.<br />Got Flash?<br />My Marketing is<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
Web Apps Are Not Censored<br />With great integration comes decreasing privacy and control.<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
There is a Low Range for App Development<br />48<br />Self reported by contractors on “They Make Apps”<br />
Marketing Sets the Stage<br />49<br />Why<br />Who<br />The launch plan is critical.<br />
Digital marketing is reaching escape velocity<br />50<br />
51<br />Digital business extends through the firm<br />Email Bi/AnalyticsWeb CMSCRM Mobile Apps<br />Community<br />
“<br />”<br />Put your best people on mobile.<br />- Eric SchmidtChairman, Google<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
Put Yourself on Mobile<br />Dave Wieneke – www.usefularts.us<br />
ThanksLinks & Info Grids Online atwww.UsefulArts.us<br />Tweet: @usefulartsEmail: firstname.lastname@example.org<br />Special thanks eConsultancyfor access to research,Peer Summit discussions, and their online community.<br />
Especially Influential in US<br />55<br />Top 5 iPad countries<br />Top 5 Android countries<br />Source: AdMob<br />