Reconstructing Climatic and Environmental Changes" FOIA Email 4.11.03 (a)

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RECORD TYPE: FEDERAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR:David Halpern C CN=David Halpern OU=OSTP/O=EOP OSTP
CREATION DATEATTME:ll-APR-2003 14:25:13. 0
SUBJECT:: FYI Re;. Press Release Re: 20th Century Climate Not So Hot
TO:pcooney~ceg.eop.gov C pcooney(3ceq.eop gov L CEQI
READ :UNKNOWN
CC:David Halpern ( CN=David Halpern/OU`O TP/O=EOP@EOPf OSTP I
READ: UNKNOWN'
TEXT:
-- ---------- Forwarded by Davi< Halpern/OSTP/EOP on 04/11/2003
02:23 PM -- - - - - - - - - - - - -
David Halpern
04/11/2003 12:46:15 PM
Record Type: Record
To: Robert C. McNally/OPD/EOP@EOP
CC: Kathie L. Olsen/OSTP/EOP@EOP, Richard M. Russell/OSTP/EOP@BOP,
Clifford J. Gabriel/OSTP/BOP@EOP, David Falpern/OSTP/EOP@BOP
Subject: Re: Press Release Re: 20th Century Climate Not So Hot
Robert,
Attached are the two papers referenced ir the Press Release.
Please let me know if you would like add tional information.
David Halpern
Richard M. Russell
04/10/2003 05:19:51 PM
Record Type: Record
To: Robert C. McNally/OPD/EOP@EOP
cc: David Halpern/OSTP/EOP@EOP, Kathie L. Olsen/OSTP/EOP@EOP
bcc:
Subject: Re: Fwd: CfA: 20th CENTURY CLI kTE NOT SO HOT
our science division is tracking it down. They will get it if it can be
gotten. Dr. David Halpern will be sending it to you directly. He will
also be able to answer any question you haye about the study.
file:/ID:SEARCH_7_9_03_CEQ036j-f.azwjfOO3- ceq.txr 8/14/2003

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To: Richard M.
Russell/OT/O@O
bCC:
Subject:R: Fwd: CfA: 20th CENTURY CLIMATE NOT SO HOT
Richard N. RussellrddbyRihadM.RuselOSP/CPo
04/10/2003 05:08:41 PM
Record Type: Record
To: Rober C. Mcarblve/OSPD/EOP@EOPRcadM usl1STEOFP
CC:
Subject: Fwd: CfA: 20th CENTURY CLIMATE NT SO HOT
-hsi atceIforwarded
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To: erocn AstPronoriealOSTEociety Rc eN uselOT/O@O
Thagis arscthe harviaerdoraredtodhl
>Contacs:ieLa
>617-495-7463
>clafon~cfa .harvart. edu
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Page
>Release NO: 03-10
>For Immediate Release
i dicators are available online at
>NOTE TO EDITORS: Photos of key climate i~age.html
3
li
>http: //cfa-www.harvard.edu/press/prO
>20th CENTURY CLIMATE NOT SO HOT
than 200 climate studies led by
>Cambridge, MA -- A review of more
Center for Astrophysics has
>researchers at the Harvard-.Smithsonlian
neither the warmest century nor
>determined that the 20th century is
r Of the past 1000 years. The
>the century with the most extreme weath
Warm Period of 800 to 1300
>review also confirmed that the Medieval
to 1900 A.D. were worldwide
>A.D. and the Little Ice Age of 1300
a d North American continents.
>phenomena not limited to the European
much higher than in the Little
>While 20th century temperatures are
show the medieval warmth to
>Ice Age period, many parts of the world
>be greater than that of the 20th century
and Sallie Baliunas, with
>Smithsoniafl astronomers Willie Soon
Idso (Center for the Study of
>co-authors Craig Idso and Sherwood
and David Legates (Center for
>Carbon Dioxide and Global Change)
, compiled and examined
>Climatic Research, University of Delaware)
papers published by thousands of
>results from more than 240 research
Their report, covering a
>researchers over the past four decades.
climate indicators, provides
>multitude of geophysical and biological
that occurred in different regions
>a detailed look at climate changes
years.
>around the world over the last 1000
ancient climates have
>"Many true research advances in reconstructing
S on says, "so we felt it was
>occurred over the past two decades,"
of recent studies from the last
>time to pull together a large sample
va iability and change. In fact,
>5-10 years and look for patterns of
that regions worldwide experienced
>clear patterns did emerge showing
and lows of the Little Ice Age,
>the highs of the Medieval Warm Period
are generally cooler than during
>and that 20th century temperatures
>the medieval warmth."
that the 20th century is neither
>Soon and his colleagues concluded
1000 years, nor is it the most
>the warmest century over the last
rn of historical climate
>extreme. Their findings about the patt
climate models simulate both
>variations will help make computer
accurately, and lead to better
>natural and man-made changes more
and regional levels. This is
>climate forecasts especially on local
timescales ranging from several
>especially true in simulations on
>decades to a century.
>--Historical Cold, Warm Periods Verified--
for a number or reasons, not
>Studying climate change is challenging
variety of climate indicators-
>the least of which is the bewildering
variables, and each operating on
>all sensitive to different climatic
of space and time. For
>slightly overlapping yet distinct scales
>example, tree ring studies can yield
~early records of temperature
r ice cores record those
>and precipitation trends, while glaci
several decades to a century.
>variables over longer time scales of
numerous climate indicators
>Soon, Baliunas and colleagues analyzec
data; glacier advances or
>including: borehole data; cultural
ysis from lake sediments or ice
>retreats; geomorphology; isotopic ana
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or
(carbohyd ates) , corals, stalagmite
>cores, tree or peat celluloses including dust or
accumulation rate,
>biological fossils; net ice melt
and sedime ts; river sediments;
>chemical counts; lake fossils (recurring natural phenomena in
>layers in ice cores; phenological seafloor
>reltionto climate) and paleontological fossils; pollen;
tree ri g growth, incluigete
>sediments; luminescent analysis; density; and shifting tree line
>ring width or maximum late-wood
lakes, mar lies and streams.
>positions Plus tree stumps in
:hese series of clues in
forensic detectives, we assembled
abou local and regional climate
>"Like
>order to answer a specific question
notable climatic anomalies during
>change: Is there evidence for "The
the past 1000 years?" Soon says.
>particular time periods over
that such anomalies did exist."
>cumulative evidence showed
records confirmned two significant
>The worldwide range of climate Age and
thousand years, the Little Ice
>climate periods in the last of a Little ice Age
climatic notion
>the medieval Warm Period. The Period from 800 to
>interval from 1300 tol9 0 0 A.D. and a Me ieval Warm
well-confirmed and wide-spread,
>1300 A.D. appears to be rather by
one region to another as measured
>despite some differences from cycles, or
precipita ion, drought
>other climatic variables like
>glacier advances and retreats.
have poss ssed anecdotal evidence
>"For a long time, researchers says.
these clmate extremes," Baliunas
>supporting the existence of C lonies in Greenland at the
>"For example, the Vikings established that died out several hundred
>beginning of the second millennium vineyards
turned col er. And in England,
>years later when the climate warmth. Now, we have an
>had flourished during the medieval indicators."
>accumulation of objective data to back up these cultural
in
clear evidence for a warm period
>The different indicators provided temperatures showed a warm interval
summer
>the Middle Ages. Tree ring which
nort ern high latitude zones,
>from 950 A.D. to 1100 A.D. in the database of tree
Warm Peri d." Another
>corresponds to the "Medieval north latitude
>growth from 14 different locations ovei 30-70 degrees
period. Mary parts of the world show the
>showed a similar early warm 20th century.
>medieval warmth to be greater than that of the
the Air F rce Office of Scientific
>The study -- funded by NASA, and
and Atmospheric Administration,
>Research, the National Oceanic in the Energy
-- wi 1 be published
>the American Petroleum Institute Baliunas
>and Environment journal. A shorter pap r by Soon and
2003 issue of the Climate Research
>appeared in the January 31,
>j ournal.
Massachuse ts, the Harvard-Smithsonian
>Headquartered in Cambridge, the
is a joint collaboration between
>Center for Astrophysics (CfA) and the Harvard College
>Smithsoflian Astrophysical Observatory into six research divisions
>Observatory. CfA scientists organized
and ulti ate fate of the universe.
>study the origin, evolution,
ARE
RECEIV MG PRESS RELEASES THAT
>IF YOU DO NOT WISH TO CONTINUE ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY,
VIA THE AERICAN
>FORWARDED TO THE NEWS MEDIA OR WRITE
>PLEASE REPLY ACCORDINGLY TO ANY INCOM MG PRESS RELEASE,
Re uests for referrals to experts
>TO hrmrneli~gf~aagv
>should be sent to the same address.
8/14/2003
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in
Anne L. KinneysisDv PhysisD~S-f
Director, Astronomy and
Office of Space science
NASA Headquarters
Jane Davis at 202-358-2150
For appoinltmenlts, call
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