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  1. 1. Water Resources and International Conflict: Game Theory Kristina Schneider CE 384D
  2. 2. “ The wars of the next century will be about water” - Ismail Serageldin, Vice – President of the World Bank in a 1995 New York Times Article.
  3. 3. Overview <ul><li>The Nature of Water Resource Conflict </li></ul><ul><li>Game Theory: A Brief Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River Basin </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusions </li></ul>
  4. 4. The Nature of Water Resource Conflict <ul><li>Water is not contained in political boundaries. </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Boundary over which rivers cross! </li></ul></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Natural Limits <ul><li>Factors that will determine the speed at which societies reach the bounds of their water resources: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Level of development desired </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Absolute availability Water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Population supplied </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The quality of the water </li></ul>
  6. 6. Resource Rivalry <ul><li>Potential causes of water disputes: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Amount the resource is shared among the nations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Degree of scarcity of water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Relative power of each nation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Accessibility of alternative fresh water supplies. </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Will War result? <ul><li>Most likely not! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It is not strategically rational. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It is hydrographically ineffective. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>It is economically infeasible. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Even if violence does not result, water resource inequalities still: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Causes more poverty </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shortens lives </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Decreases the stability of the nation </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Game Theory: A Brief Introduction <ul><li>Game theory is a mathematical analysis of any situation involving a conflict of interest, with the intent of indicating the optimal choices that, under given conditions, will lead to a desired outcome. </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>MSN Encarta </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Game theory is study of how players should rationally play games. Each player would like the game end in an outcome with gives them as large as a payoff as possible. </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>- Straffin, Game Theory and Strategy </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
  9. 9. Game Theory: A Brief Introduction <ul><li>The decision makers are called players. </li></ul><ul><li>Two person or multi-person games exist. </li></ul><ul><li>The payoff, or outcome, is happens at the end of a game. </li></ul><ul><li>Solutions of a game can be found at equilibrium points. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Game Theory: Assumptions <ul><li>Each player can chose between two or more clear choices. </li></ul><ul><li>Every decision will lead to a win, a lose, or a draw. </li></ul><ul><li>The rules of the game and the payoffs for each player are known by all participants. </li></ul><ul><li>The players will act rationally. </li></ul>
  11. 11. Game Theory: Payoffs <ul><li>Payoffs are often represented in matrix form. </li></ul><ul><li>Payoffs determine what type of game is played. </li></ul><ul><li>Zero-sum Games </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>One player wins while the other loses. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Non-zero-sum Games </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>No straight forward answer exists. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  12. 12. Application of Game Theory to the Syr Darya River Basin
  13. 13. The River Basin’s Unique Challenges: Former USSR Republics <ul><li>Water Allocation Schemas were created with the following assumptions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The river was contained in one nation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hydrotechincal facilities were developed to serve irrigation needs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water deficits would be alleviated by transfers from Siberia </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Downstream countries would provide upstream countries with heating fuels. </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. The Toktogul Reservoir <ul><li>Main reservoir along the river </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Provides irrigation storage – Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Provides power - Kyrgyzstan </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Toktogul Model <ul><li>Use Multiobjective Water Resource Allocation Model for the Toktogul Reservoir to find payoffs. </li></ul><ul><li>Three scenarios: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Maximize irrigation needs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maximize power generation for both summer and winter. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Baseline – no dam exists. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Two flow regimes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>NNNNN </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>NNDNN </li></ul></ul>
  16. 16. Economic Results of the Model
  17. 17. Game Theory: Syr Darya <ul><li>Two person non-zero-sum game </li></ul><ul><li>Players </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Downstream - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Upstream – Kyrgyzstan </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Only Irrigation and Power Scenarios considered </li></ul>
  18. 18. Payoff Matrices for Application of to the Syr Darya River Basin
  19. 19. Payoff Polygons for Application to the Syr Darya River Basin
  20. 20. Analysis of Game Theory Application <ul><li>Payoffs are not the correct outcomes analyze the game. </li></ul><ul><li>The multiple variables increase the complication of the analysis. </li></ul><ul><li>If you ignore this, a clear equilibrium point exists at IP. </li></ul><ul><li>This is a logical choice. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Conclusions <ul><li>International Water Conflict will occur. </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict situations will not be violent. </li></ul><ul><li>Game theory is a valid tool to help in water resource decision making. </li></ul><ul><li>The correct payoffs must be used to receive a correct solution to a game. </li></ul>