SXSW 2015 Digital Trends Session by Amy Webb

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This is Amy Webb's 2015 Digital Trends session at SXSW.

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SXSW 2015 Digital Trends Session by Amy Webb

  1. Digital Future 2015 Emerging Trends SXSW March 15, 2015 Wednesday, March 18, 15
  2. Amy Webb: 3 Things Digital Media Futurist Founder + CEO of Webbmedia Group, a digital strategy agency. What I Do Research and forecast near-future tech and digital media trends. How I Do It Quarterly tech-trends on-site, pop-up think tanks, project-based work. 1 2 3 Wednesday, March 18, 15
  3. Where the trends come from... Wednesday, March 18, 15
  4. Six Part Forecasting Methodology 1. Observations from the fringe 2. Pattern Identifiers: Contradictions, Oddities, Inflections, Anomalies and Hacks 3. Contextualize: “Consumer” = individual, business, organization, government, social movement 4. Timing: Finding the S-curve 5. Mapping the Trend Strategy 6. Pressure-Testing the trend and strategy Wednesday, March 18, 15
  5. The 5 Questions Focus on your audience. 1.Where/ how are people wasting their time? 2.Where/ how are people having difficulty with technology? 3.Where/ how are people looking for information? 4.Where/ how are people stuck? 5.How do people want to be perceived? Wednesday, March 18, 15
  6. Forecast the trend and define a strategy at just the right time... Mainstream Use Convergence Wednesday, March 18, 15
  7. Forecast the trend and define a strategy at just the right time... Mainstream Use Convergence Wednesday, March 18, 15
  8. 5Emerging Digital Trends Deep Dive Wednesday, March 18, 15
  9. Attention You must find and harness your consumers’ attention in new ways. 1 Wednesday, March 18, 15
  10. 12,000 people voluntary mobile data 95 min/ day pick up 50 - 60 min/ day Wednesday, March 18, 15
  11. 151 - 169 mobile minutes Wednesday, March 18, 15
  12. < 2 minutes per pick up Wednesday, March 18, 15
  13. Our attentions are directly or ambiently connected to our mobile phones all day long. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  14. • Checking email & social • Read 900th #Meerkat story • Looking at push notifications • Checking the weather/ traffic • Playing a quick game < 2 minutes Wednesday, March 18, 15
  15. < 2 minutes available: - 3 ..... seconds on homescreen - 5+ ..... push notifications - 4 ..... seconds deciding - 90 ..... seconds email/ texts Math Wednesday, March 18, 15
  16. You have less than 30 seconds to grab your customer’s attention. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  17. Nope. Actually..... Wednesday, March 18, 15
  18. Your readers make visual decisions in less than 3 seconds. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  19. Utility – Immediately Clear Wednesday, March 18, 15
  20. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  21. Platforms Find and deliver us content/ utility in <3 seconds Wednesday, March 18, 15
  22. How can you make those 3 seconds count? Wednesday, March 18, 15
  23. Attention. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  24. Abbi & Ilana’s 3 seconds Wednesday, March 18, 15
  25. What do Abbi and Ilana want at this moment in time? Wednesday, March 18, 15
  26. Let’s ask their mobile data. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  27. What we know about Abbi and Ilana: • Their schedules • Their locations • Their speeds • What they read • What they listen to • How often they engage with your site • How often they engage with your digital products • What they click on • What their interest areas are • Whether or not they clicks on ads • How they’re retargeted • Who their friends are • How tech-savvy they are Wednesday, March 18, 15
  28. Look into your mobile phone. You’ll see a truer reflection of yourself than in any mirror. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  29. Attention Matrix Wednesday, March 18, 15
  30. Attention Matrix Wednesday, March 18, 15
  31. TEMPORAL Create experience for Abbi & Ilana at a particular moment in time, given that there are N# variables in time and activity. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  32. ACTIVITIES Create experience for Abbi & Ilana’s activities at that moment in time. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  33. BEHAVIORS Create experience for Abbi & Ilana given their past and predicted behaviors. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  34. IQ/EQ Meet Abbi & Ilana’s intellectual and emotional needs. (Which might be hard... or easy!) Wednesday, March 18, 15
  35. What is the _____ version of the digital experience for Abbi & Ilana? For all our possible audience members? ✦ Stuck in a cruise ship cargo room ✦ Throwing a kettle ball at a mirror at the gym ✦ Drunk in an Uber ✦ Not doing anything at work ✦ Trying to ignore strange roommate Wednesday, March 18, 15
  36. How will you capture attention this year? Wednesday, March 18, 15
  37. Tracking Attention not clicks or downloads Mainstream Use Convergence Wednesday, March 18, 15
  38. Tracking Attention not clicks or downloads Mainstream Use Convergence Wednesday, March 18, 15
  39. Put your audience first. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  40. Not your audience’s devices Wednesday, March 18, 15
  41. Trend Into Action Attention Strategy = How can you create a strategy to harness your customer’s attention on her devices? Wednesday, March 18, 15
  42. (NOT) Watches They’re a second screen for phones. That’s about it. 2 Wednesday, March 18, 15
  43. 401* Devices *as of March 9, 2015 Wednesday, March 18, 15
  44. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  45. smartwatches.org Wednesday, March 18, 15
  46. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  47. 2015 - 2016 Devices intended for biometric reporting and mobile 2nd screens. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  48. 2018+ Devices will have more cross-functionality and will be more widely used. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  49. {Implicit facts} Smartphones are addictive. People aren’t checking their watches 60 times a day. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  50. Heading towards a second convergence. Convergence Convergence Wednesday, March 18, 15
  51. Heading towards a second convergence. Convergence Convergence Wednesday, March 18, 15
  52. Trend Into Action Wearables Strategy = Monitor the fringe, watch for new products. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  53. Haptics Buzz me, maybe? 3 Wednesday, March 18, 15
  54. Haptics (n) from the Greek ἅπτω Communication via touch. Can be one-way, two-way or multi. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  55. “Force Touch” Wednesday, March 18, 15
  56. Thrustmaster TX Racing Wheel Ferrari 458 Italia Edition Wednesday, March 18, 15
  57. Pavlok Wednesday, March 18, 15
  58. Pavlok Wednesday, March 18, 15
  59. Foxtell Shirt Wednesday, March 18, 15
  60. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  61. Haptics will impact... Wednesday, March 18, 15
  62. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  63. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  64. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  65. Haptics: edging out from the fringe Convergence Mainstream Use Wednesday, March 18, 15
  66. Trend Into Action Haptics Strategy = Monitor the fringe, watch for new implementations and possible partnerships. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  67. Ambient Interfaces Our devices are doing more for us with fewer direct actions. 4 Wednesday, March 18, 15
  68. Autocomplete... ...for intentions Wednesday, March 18, 15
  69. Google Now has created a Personal Information Layer that’s indispensable. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  70. More than just Push Alerts Wednesday, March 18, 15
  71. If the alert isn’t in the middle of the attention matrix, it’s just a meaningless interruption. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  72. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  73. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  74. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  75. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  76. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  77. Mumble! app on Android Wednesday, March 18, 15
  78. Haptic connection. Ambient information. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  79. Next, ambient interfaces into....... Retail apps & experiences. Productivity apps. Finance apps. Dating apps. Law enforcement tools. The right kind of news apps. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  80. Ambient interfaces: First Convergence Mainstream Use Convergence Wednesday, March 18, 15
  81. Trend Into Action Ambient Strategy = How can you create an ambient environment to capture more attention? Wednesday, March 18, 15
  82. Speaking of ambient......... Wednesday, March 18, 15
  83. Messaging Platforms Messaging apps are the new homepage. 5 Wednesday, March 18, 15
  84. Line App (Japan) Wednesday, March 18, 15
  85. Line App (Japan) Wednesday, March 18, 15
  86. Line App (Japan) Nostalgia + Institutional Understanding Gen X = Sticker Books Millennials = Emoji Wednesday, March 18, 15
  87. 1.7 million new users every day Wednesday, March 18, 15
  88. 126% growth $656m in revenue Wednesday, March 18, 15
  89. Company Revenue Gannett $5,161 million New York Times $1,577 million GoPro $985 million Line Messaging App $656 million Twitter $479 million Madonna’s MDNA Tour $305 million Perspective Wednesday, March 18, 15
  90. WeChat (China) Wednesday, March 18, 15
  91. WeChat (China) Wednesday, March 18, 15
  92. What is chat, exactly? Wednesday, March 18, 15
  93. • Avoid SMS fees • Have private conversations • Asking for information • Coordinating plans • On my way home • Please call me • Social: friends, dating • Peer-to-peer sharing • Gossip • “Did you hear?” breaking news • Are you ok? • Real-time collaboration Why We Message Wednesday, March 18, 15
  94. Niche Messaging Services Wednesday, March 18, 15
  95. WhatsApp: Free messaging Wednesday, March 18, 15
  96. Luka App: Chat + recommendations Wednesday, March 18, 15
  97. Tinder: Dating (etc) Wednesday, March 18, 15
  98. Venmo: Payments Wednesday, March 18, 15
  99. New chat apps offer in-app purchases. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  100. Ask: What will people pay for? Wednesday, March 18, 15
  101. Trying to help us win. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  102. Trying to help us one-up our friends. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  103. Also feeds our addictive mobile behaviors. Just $1 and you can get to the next level... Wednesday, March 18, 15
  104. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  105. You’re not trying to help us win. You’re preventing us from getting information we want. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  106. Chat/ Messaging: Next: feature of other apps Mainstream Use Convergence Wednesday, March 18, 15
  107. Chat -- immediate connections in real time -- will become part of wearables, other apps, etc. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  108. Next, convergence with... Brands. News media. Home improvement apps. Fashion bloggers. Personal finance networks. Hobbies: gardening apps. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  109. Trend Into Action Chat Strategy = Leverage your audience and their desire to chat. Build utility into your app or partner. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  110. Thanks. Wednesday, March 18, 15
  111. webbmediagroup.com hello@webbmediagroup.com @webbmediagroup267-342-4300 Wednesday, March 18, 15

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